It happens every year: Everybody worries about the first round pick number and totally ignores the fact that it will be different later on. Whatever pick number we get in Round 1, it will not be the same in Rounds 2-7 because of the rotation with all other 3-13 or 4-12 teams. Last year we were one of five 4-12 teams, so after picking Blake Bortles, we did not get the third pick again until Round 6. So what pick numbers are the Jaguars likely to get throughout the draft?

 

One thing is definite: the Titans and Buccaneers will pick before we do. They have only two wins and weaker schedules. So the highest we can pick is #3 in the first round. If the Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders lose (all are 3-12), that will be the first round draft order and the 4-11 Redskins will be locked at #6. In this scenario, the second round would look like this if no picks are traded:

 

33. Buccaneers

34. Titans

35. Jets

36. Raiders

37. Jaguars

 

If we win and the Redskins lose, they will be in our draft rotation. One possibility is simply alternating picks with the Redskins, which would happen if we win and the Jets, Raiders, and Redskins lose. I do not want it to work out that way. Chances are nearly zero percent the Raiders will win at Denver, so winning at Houston will make us pick after Oakland in all seven rounds. But if we lose, we will swap picks with the Raiders or be in a rotation that includes Oakland. The Jets have a much better chance of beating Miami, so we could swap picks with them by beating the Texans. Yes, this is important when talking about the draft order.

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