Career-ending injury is really the only misfortune that is generally recognized as not a bust. Look at the short career of Greg Cook. However, if the injury was per-existing and the NFL shared the medical information prior to a team drafting the medical red flagged player, then it can be looked upon as a draft bust.


There aren't a lot of exceptions.


What makes a player a bust?


Every draft pick carries a certain value.


First Round - A player that will be an immediate franchise starter and firmly exhibits the characteristics of All-Pro play at his position. A perennial Pro Bowl candidate. Top ten have almost-certain Hall of Fame talent. The attributes are superior health, amazing athleticism, high character, and A-plus leadership ability. The NFL life-expectancy of a first round pick is ten plus years of consistent, superior play.


Second Round - Very high quality football player. Must possess no flaws in character or talent. Usually more capable of starting at his position than at least 50 to 75% of the players already playing the position on the roster. In deeper draft classes, first round candidates can spill over to the top ten to fifteen draft slots. An odds-on player to become an immediate starter with positive impact and a 60-75% chance of making a Pro Bowl at some point in a eight to ten-plus year career.


Third Round - A very good football player with a 40 to 60% chance of becoming a starter and a modest chance of making a Pro Bowl at some point in his career. Must grade extremely well and possess exceptionally fine talent. Must not have any serious flaws in talent or athleticism. Expected to provide immediate depth at position with modest potential to start relatively soon. Generally, an NFL life-expectancy of about five to eight years of fine play is anticipated.


Fourth Round - A good football player with above-average pro potential and solid, reliable talent. A sure competitor for a roster spot. A 30 to 50% chance of eventually becoming a starter within two to three years on teams with good depth. A career estimate is around 3 to 6 years.


Fifth Round - A good, talented football player that may not have a well-round game, but can play at the pro level. A fifth round pick is one that odds-on can make the roster, provide good, steady service as a depth player for the team and can compete for a prominent role.


Beyond this no team is going to be judged critically.




HTH

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