Quote:Back to the 1910 thing...


So temps rose, then dropped. Now temps are rising again to even higher levels then back in 1910.


It is very plausible to link the higher levels now to the higher levels of carbon we burn now as opposed to then.

There's your positive feedback, using your own defense.


Now, do I win a cookie?

 

Glad you asked.

 

There was a major adjustment to the temperature records between 1940 and now. The difference is all in the adjustment. This is from NOAA:

 




There are five separate adjustments contributing to the above total. The time of observation (TOBS) adjustment swamps the other four. Only one of the five, the urban heating adjustment, is negative, and NOAA's adjustment is small. To me that is counter-intuitive, because the urban (and microclimate*) effects on the temperature record should be the largest. Note also that TOBS is not done site to site, which would be the scientific way to do it, but is just applied as a blanket average to every site.

 

The question is, is the adjustment correct? Those making the adjustment claim that it is, but it is in the direction of more warming which confirms their pre-adjustment beliefs. At best that call into question confirmation bias .Scientists tend to accept what they expect, and only carefully scrutinize results they don't expect. On a more human level, the adjustments also lead to more funding.

 

Temperatures are adjusted to give more warming. Satellite sea level is adjusted to give a faster rise rate. ARGO ocean sensors are adjusted to give higher temperatures. Global temperature adjustments are updated frequently, and always in the direction of more warming. Could all these adjustments, all in the same direction, all supporting the belief of the adjusters, be correct? It's possible, but very unlikely.


 

 
The state high temperature records are mostly in the 1930s. The number of record highs and lows since 1990 are about equal, and what one would expect from random statistics: 1/6th of the total number in 1/6th of the total time since 1900. If anything, one should expect more records in recent times since thermometers are now automated and take temperatures continuously. TOBs does not affect record temperatures so the 1930's records can't be adjusted away.

 

* Things such as jet exhausts in airports or an AC being installed near the sensors.

---