Quote:Nice post. But you also need to consider that horrible thrown passes by each of these teams QBs contribute significantly for the poor percentage of targets to catches. 

 

Oh, I definitely took into consideration the QB's throwing. Of the 4 I listed, the only one with a consistently decent QB was Torrey Smith, and even Flacco's looked shakey this season. That was kind of part of the point; Cecil's been demanding like he's an elite receiver for a decent part of the season, but his production is more in line with above average guys like VJax, Torrey, and Stevie. They can be great when they have great QB's, but they're not the types of guys who are going to consistently bail out their QB's and make everyone look better, like say a Megatron or a Fitz from a few years ago, where you could just toss the ball up and generally your guy would come down with it. The issue is, that the Jags QB situation is in a state of flux, to put it nicely, and Cecil isn't the type of receiver who is going to bail out whoever's playing QB consistently. With teams shifting their focus onto Cecil, I can see why Henne might be looking else where for someone with a more favorable matchup.

 

Cecil's demands for the ball would have more merit, in my opinion, if he was able to take the best the other team had to offer and consistently bail out his poor QB's.

 

 

Quote:7.7% drop rate isn't bad at all.  It's tied with Wes Welker for percentage, who has Peyton Manning throwing to him.  Welker has just seen less targets, but has had 6 drops.  Eric Decker has fewer attempts, but also has 7 drops.

 

You also have to consider that 'targets' doesn't mean the ball is catchable.  

 

Even the website says there are other factors to take into consideration with drops -- and that it's not always on the WR.

 

Welker's an interesting receiver. He's on pace for a pretty substandard year for himself, in terms of the "drops" as defined by Sporting Charts. Though, he's had struggles with "drops" before. Last year he had a 5.7% drop rate, and in 2010 he led the league in drops and had a 10.6% drop rate. That said, in 2011 he had a 2.9% drop rate, in 2009 it was 3.7%, in 2008 it was 2.7%, in 2007 it was 2.8%, in 2006 it was 4.0%, and then the sample size starts getting too low (3.9% drop percentage in 2006 on 52 targets, giving him 2 drops and 29 receptions). So, I'm hesitant to say that 7.7% "isn't bad at all" and I certainly wouldn't go anywhere near saying "7.7% is what I strive for in my receivers who are demanding to be gameplanned around." But, I guess that's personal preference. :confused:

 

I think I'd like to say Shorts is better than Decker, so what Decker's doing with drops isn't entirely relevant to my analysis of Cecil. Though, that is obviously entirely debatable, but let's just put on our teal sunglasses here so I don't need to do any more research or long winded posts. Please? :thumbsup:

 

As far as the balls not being catchable, I imagine a good amount of the balls thrown Cecil's way aren't "catchable." I'm certainly not trying to pass these 2 posts off as indicating Cecil's playing with all-star QB's and not producing. I'm well aware of the fact that Henne and Gabbert aren't the easiest to catch balls from. I just feel like if a guy who is in the top 10 for most targeted receivers in the league is going to start demanding the ball, he should show more of an ability to catch uncatchable balls and bail his QB's out. Cecil hasn't shown that he can do that consistently in his career, so, I don't know why he thinks he deserves the ball if the other team's focusing their defense on him. If there's someone else open or if there's someone to whom the QB can make a safer throw to over Cecil, I don't have an issue with the QB throwing it that way. Until Cecil starts making an impact on games, regardless of who's playing QB, he should stay quiet and put the work in to become more of a force. Henne's completed 146 passes this year, excluding today's game, so its not like they've got a mailbox playing QB. The guy can sometimes put the ball in places for his receivers to catch them; Cecil needs to do a better job making the tough catches (and the easy catches, as I know he dropped a decent amount of easy balls earlier this year) before he starts acting like he's entitled to more passes, which knowing who's playing QB will probably be poorly thrown.

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