I was thinking 8-8 was a lock to win the division but that was before Indy beat both the Broncos and Falcons as well as Houston beating Cincy.  Now I wouldnt be surprised if 9-7 takes the division.

 

Thankfully they both have some difficult games.  Indy still has a road game at Pitt.  And Houston still has a game against the Patriots.  Nothing would surprise me but lets say hopefully they both lose those games.  That would get them both to 6 losses.  They both still have to play us and I cant imagine us winning the division w/o winning both those games so for the sake of playing along, lets say that happens... now they both are at 7 losses.  They still have a game against each other so one of them now has 8 losses while the other is at 7.  Which means we would need the winner of that game to lose one of their remaining three... (Indy has remaining games against Bucs, Dolphins, and Titans.  Houston would have Saints, Bills, and Titans.).... and that would guarantee nobody would finish better than 8-8.

 

Ironically, our upcoming game against the Chargers could hurt us in the division race.  The division tiebreaker order is 1) games between the tied two teams, 2) record in the division, 3) record against common opponents.  If we beat the Chargers, we would be 2-0 in our two games against uncommon AFC opponents.  Houston has already lost one of their two and if Indy loses to Pittsburgh, they would have a loss as well.  Which means they'd both have better records against common opponents than we would.  We cant beat either of them in the first tiebreaker scenario since we've already lost to both... best we can hope for is a 1-1 split.  Will be hard to surpass the Colts in the 2nd tiebreak scenario as their record in the division is so good.  Texans would be easier to pass but isnt a guarantee... we need them to lose one more game(not counting our game).  if they lose to the Colts odd are we arent in a tiebreak scenario with them so realistically we need them to lose to the Titans.

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