Quote:If we go 8-8 and win the rest of our division games I'm 90% sure we're gonna win the division

 

Need to go 9-7. 8-8 isn't likely to do it.

 

Indy and Houston play. They already have 5 wins each, so that's 6 for certain for the winner absent a tie. They both play Tennessee and they're both better than the Titans. Worse, they don't play them until the end, well after Tennessee is mathematically eliminated.

 

That's 7 wins for one of them - all but guaranteed. Indy would be at 5-0 in the division, Houston would be 4-1. In neither case could the Jags get either the head-to-head or division record tiebreak over them. The Jags can't get the common games tiebreak over Houston and will only get it over Indy if Indy beats the Steelers or the Jags lose to the Chargers. But either of those results - extra win for Indy or extra loss for Jax - is a dagger to the Jags' playoff chances. Conference record tiebreak is potentially bad for the Jags as well, since they've already got one extra AFC loss and fewer AFC games left to play. That drops it to strength of victory which Houston is very likely to hold thanks to Cincinnati and Indy is likely to hold thanks to Denver. 

 

So the bottom line is the Jags aren't likely going to win any tiebreak situation. If they want the division, they have to finish with a better record than both Houston and Indy. 8 wins isn't likely to do that. There's a pretty decent chance 9 won't be enough - about fifty/fifty. Winning out and getting to 10 would put the Jags in the drivers seat for sure, though Indy would still have a 10-15% chance to knock them out and Houston would have about a 2-3% shot. 

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