We are actually in position to make the playoffs.

 

While I think our best chances to make the playoffs are with winning the division, we are only a game back of the wild card as well as of this posting.

 

That said, here is a picture of the AFC playoff hunt, per big cat country

 

http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2015/11/24/...-11th-seed

 

Taking this at face value, to maximize the chances of Jacksonville making the post season, aside from Jacksonville winning, we need to root for the following results:

 

Tampa to beat Indy

New Orleans to beat Houston

Miami to beat the jets

Buff to beat KC (though arguably a pick em, we'd have the advantage over Buffalo due to the head to head win)

Tenn to beat Oakland (I had a hard time typing this)

Seattle to beat Pittsburgh (second nature for me to type this)

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

We are actually in position to make the playoffs.

 

While I think our best chances to make the playoffs are with winning the division, we are only a game back of the wild card as well as of this posting.

 

That said, here is a picture of the AFC playoff hunt, per big cat country

 

http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2015/11/24/...-11th-seed

 

Taking this at face value, to maximize the chances of Jacksonville making the post season, aside from Jacksonville winning, we need to root for the following results:

 

Tampa to beat Indy

New Orleans to beat Houston

Miami to beat the jets

Buff to beat KC (though arguably a pick em, we'd have the advantage over Buffalo due to the head to head win)

Tenn to beat Oakland (I had a hard time typing this)

Seattle to beat Pittsburgh (second nature for me to type this)

 

 

Interesting take on KC vs the Bills. Offhand I'm thinking the Bills have to go down, but we can't overlook KC who is red hot right now. Tenn vs Oakland is also tough to decide because first and foremost it's still a division race, and the last thing we need is for the tacks to slip back in it.


 

Miami over the Jets is logical. The Jets are 5-5 and beat the Jaguars while the Jaguars beat the 4-6 Dolphins, however, the Jets are 1-4, however, the Jets are reeling as a team. The Jets are 1-4 in their last five games with their only win a very close one over the Jaguars. They also still have a game vs the Patriots and road games at the Giants, Cowboys (with Romo) and Bills. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are home for four of their next five games after this game, and their only road game is at the Chargers. So while you'd think we need the Dolphins to win, I have to wonder if the Dolphins are the bigger threat right now.


 

One game left out above is the Patriots over Denver. The Patriots are probably going undefeated and certainly are not losing their division, but with Osweiler at the helm, and even if Peyton returns, the Broncos could be headed toward disaster wherein they fall into the wildcard hunt. We probably also want the Browns to beat the Ravens considering the Ravens are only a game back from the Jaguars and the Browns aren't realistically getting themselves into the hunt. I know Flacco is gone, but the Ravens could use that to rally. And just in case it couldn't hurt for the Rams to beat the Bengals as you never know if Dalton is on the verge of a serious regression streak.

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'02

We have to get Tenn buried, division race comes first and foremost so gotta hope Oakland wins 

 

If they win then beat us next week they are right in it, even if we win this week, if they lose and beat us we at least keep a nice lead on them

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<B><FONT color=cyan>Jags this is your year</FONT></B>

Highly unlikely scenarios.

 

I like to keep it simple.

I want the clots, tacks, and tinhorns to lose, every week.

I want the Jaguars to win, every week.

 

If that happens. We're in.

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02,

 

Under normal circumstances, I'd root like heck for KC to pound Buffalo because of my buddy who is a Bills fan, but a playoff push, especially the first for this team in forever, knows no loyalties or allegiances outside of Jacksonville.  Both KC and Buffalo can be formidable down the stretch.  I think from top to bottom, Buffalo has the more talented roster than KC, but I think the Chiefs are better coached, and ultimately the bigger threat since we don't have the head to head tiebreaker over them.

 

Now I was too lazy to do extended schedule analysis, in part, figuring that doing this every week we'd get a better picture on who to root for/against as time goes on.  However, given your astute look at the schedule, Miami may well be the bigger threat longer term.,,but again we hold the tiebreaker.

 

 

I do not consider the current division leaders, outside of Indy, as competition for playoff spots right now.  I think their records at this point are far superior to the Jaguars to the point of mootness.  Even if Jacksonville won out and New England lost out, they'd still get in over us due to head to head.  Even though Cincy has lost two straight, I think this is a minor hiccup and not something longer term/systemic.  I still think they win that division by a healthy margin.  I think to a lesser extent, Denver mirrors Cincy.  I think the offense will be a sore spot for the rest of the year.  Manning is finished.  Osweiler, while not having anywhere near the brains Manning has, I think at this stage he offers more physically than the first ballot HOFer,and the offense will be more productive, while he isn't as good as Dalton at this point.

 

Baltimore is in no position to rally for a late playoff push, because they have too many major injuries to too many major contributors to do so.  Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs are not there to rally the team.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I do not consider the current division leaders, outside of Indy, as competition for playoff spots right now. I think their records at this point are far superior to the Jaguars to the point of mootness. Even if Jacksonville won out and New England lost out, they'd still get in over us due to head to head. Even though Cincy has lost two straight, I think this is a minor hiccup and not something longer term/systemic. I still think they win that division by a healthy margin.

As far as division leading Cincy goes, I think we should root for the to go ahead and win for the division title. They already sit at 8 wins. If they stumble more, and end up losing the division title to PITT,, Cincy will still undoubtedly have enough wins to lock up a WC spot. They're getting in the playoffs regardless. If Pitt wins the AFCN, Cincy will eat up one of the WC spots, leaving only 1 spot open for every other team to fight for.


However, we should keep wanting PITT to lose games. They only sit at 6 wins currently,, and could still potentially drop enough to keep both WC spots in play.

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This thread belongs in NFL At Large, but is definitely a good topic.

 

First of all, we need to root for whoever is playing against the Colts and Texans (in addition to the Jaguars, of course). This week that means the Saints and Buccaneers.

 

Unfortunately, if all other 4-6 teams lose, that moves us down in the draft order, so I want them to win. Root against the teams with better records such as the Bills, Jets, and Chiefs (all 5-5) for playoff purposes.

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This thread belongs in NFL At Large, but is definitely a good topic.

 

 

Why? It's not about the other teams. It's about who should win the other games, but only as the games directly relate to the Jaguars playoff chances. This thread is strictly about the Jaguars.

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'02

As far as division leading Cincy goes, I think we should root for the to go ahead and win for the division title. They already sit at 8 wins. If they stumble more, and end up losing the division title to PITT,, Cincy will still undoubtedly have enough wins to lock up a WC spot. They're getting in the playoffs regardless. If Pitt wins the AFCN, Cincy will eat up one of the WC spots, leaving only 1 spot open for every other team to fight for.


However, we should keep wanting PITT to lose games. They only sit at 6 wins currently,, and could still potentially drop enough to keep both WC spots in play.

 

That's what I am thinking too. Just let them win the division. We need to worry about the Steelers getting in as a wild card.

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Tenn vs Oakland is also tough to decide because first and foremost it's still a division race, and the last thing we need is for the tacks to slip back in it.


 

 

Tennessee is all but done. Colts and Texans have 5 wins already and half the tiebreak on the Titans, plus the Titans are already 0-3 in the division. The absolute best possible result for them in the division is:

Tennessee sweeps the others

Texans beat Colts

Jags beat Colts

Jags beat Texans

 

This gets the Jags and Texans to 6 wins, Indy to 5 and Tennessee to 5. All four teams would be 3-3 in the division. So Tennessee would need to win two out of three remaining games (on top of winning the 3 division games) just to have even a mathematical chance. Since one of those games is against the Pats, they pretty much need to win out (apart from vs New England). This gets Tennessee in if - and only if - neither the Jags nor Texans win an AFC game and the Colts win no more than 1. That's an 8 game parley.

 

Without beating the Pats, they are mathematically eliminated (absent some games resulting in ties) if the Jags beat them in two weeks, or if the Jags beat the Chargers this week.  

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Tennessee is all but done. Colts and Texans have 5 wins already and half the tiebreak on the Titans, plus the Titans are already 0-3 in the division. The absolute best possible result for them in the division is:

Tennessee sweeps the others

Texans beat Colts

Jags beat Colts

Jags beat Texans

 

This gets the Jags and Texans to 6 wins, Indy to 5 and Tennessee to 5. All four teams would be 3-3 in the division. So Tennessee would need to win two out of three remaining games (on top of winning the 3 division games) just to have even a mathematical chance. Since one of those games is against the Pats, they pretty much need to win out (apart from vs New England). This gets Tennessee in if - and only if - neither the Jags nor Texans win an AFC game and the Colts win no more than 1. That's an 8 game parley.

 

Without beating the Pats, they are mathematically eliminated (absent some games resulting in ties) if the Jags beat them in two weeks, or if the Jags beat the Chargers this week.  

 

 

Nice research Sarg. So go Titans this week.

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'02

This is the opposite of what I am trying to do in the college forum; asking people who we need to win so we can higher in the draft? This one will be tricky.

 

In the division, we have to jump over two 5-5 teams that temporarily own us. In the other AFC division,s we are talking about the Dolphins, Raiders,

 

If this is wrong you don't have to be nasty about it.

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We have to get Tenn buried, division race comes first and foremost so gotta hope Oakland wins 

 

If they win then beat us next week they are right in it, even if we win this week, if they lose and beat us we at least keep a nice lead on them

Tennessee IS buried. They aren't winning out. The Jags eliminated any hopes of them doing anything this year.

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THERE IS A SKELETON INSIDE OF YOU.

 

RIGHT NOW. THIS IS NOT A JOKE.

Regarding Tennessee, I think they are buried.

 

As Sarg pointed out, too much absolutely has to go right for them to even have a shot.

 

Besides, if with 6 games left to play with basically a 2.5 game lead over them, if we let them bypass us for a playoff spot with a rookie QB and interim coach and all of the other shortcomings they have, we don't deserve to get in anyway.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Jagherd, I agree completely regarding wanting Cincy to just win that division.

 

They will likely have won enough games to nail down a wildcard spot if somehow they don't win the division.

 

Them not being division champs reduces our chances at post season.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I agree with BigCatCountry on all those games.  I think Buffalo is the obvious choice to root for because we have the head to head tiebreaker over them.  Kansas City we dont.  And both teams have a pretty cupcake schedule the rest of the way.  It's not as though KC has a bunch of games against the Pats, Panthers, Cardinals, etc.. where you know they have a bunch of losses in their future.  And as far as Tenn-Oak, I'm pulling for Tennessee.  They're out of the race.  They'd have to win out to even have a chance.  If we lose to them next week, we are probably out of the race so assuming we beat them, that gives them 9 losses and they are officially out.  If anything it helps us to have them win every single remaining game except against us.  That would give one more loss to the Colts, Texans, Jets, and Raiders.  That would be ideal.

 

I still think we need a lot of help.  Driving down to the beach for the holiday I was listening to the Jaguars Monday show and Pete Prisco was on there saying if we go 8-8 its a lock we win the division and Boselli was saying he was bummed the Falcons choked against the Colts but it doesnt matter as we still play them both.  I dont see that at all.  Pretty strong likelihood we need to win the the division outright.  A few weeks ago I thought 7-9 could win the division.  But now it looks like 8-8 is a minimum.  But the kicker for us though is odds are we wont the win the tiebreaker against either of them.  We need them to help us.  The first division tiebreaker is head to head.  Obviously we cant win that against either team as we've already lost to both.  Best case is a split.  The 2nd tiebreak is division record.  Colts are 3-0, we are 1-2.  We need the Colts to lose out and we need to win out to win the division record tiebreak against them.  Is that possible?  Sure, but likely?  Not really.  Realistic best case is a tie against them.  The Texans are 2-1.  Assuming we beat them that puts us both at 2-2 and both of us would have a game against the Titans and Colts.  So this one we've got more of a shot but we still need to do better.  We need to go 2-0 in those games while they go 1-1 or we need them to lose both while we only win one.  We need them to lose and help us out.  And then the 3rd tiebreaker is record in common opponents.  Ironically if we beat the Chargers this weekend, we've officially lost this tiebreaker to the Texans.  And if the Colts lose at Pittsburgh in a couple weeks which is very possible, weve officially lost that tiebreaker to them as well.  So that doesnt leave us many options.  If our best case in tiebreak #1 is a split and if we are losing tiebreak #3, then our only real option is win tiebreak #2 which is division record.  We're in a pretty bad spot as far as division tiebreakers.  We probably need to win the division outright.  And if one of them finishes with 8 wins, we need to win 9.

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________________________________________________
Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

Win out and we're in.

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Jagherd, I agree completely regarding wanting Cincy to just win that division.

 

They will likely have won enough games to nail down a wildcard spot if somehow they don't win the division.

 

Them not being division champs reduces our chances at post season.

 

 

I'm not saying this is wrong, but that's no reason to want Cincy to win their games. The problem arises if the Steelers keep winning as it's more realistic for them to fall out of contention.than the Bengals. But just in case the Steelers don't, there's that ever so slight chance that the Bengals plunge like the Jets currently seem to be doing. Why would actually want Cincy to win even their NFC games? Are you thinking that by winning more outright it might help to demoralize the Steelers into not trying as hard?

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'02

Win out and we're in.

 

Not necessarily true. Whoever wins the Colts/Texans matchup can still win out and beat the Jags on the tiebreaks. In Indy's case division record, in Houston's case strength of victory (beating Cincinnati gives a big advantage here).

 

This is a lot more likely to happen in the Colts case than the Texans, simply because it's unlikely Houston beats New England. 

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Ironically if we beat the Chargers this weekend, we've officially lost this tiebreaker to the Texans.  And if the Colts lose at Pittsburgh in a couple weeks which is very possible, weve officially lost that tiebreaker to them as well. 

 

 

This part went straight over my head. You'll have to explain how this works. That is, how does our beat the chargers result in us losing the common oppenents tiebreaker to the Texans, and how does the Colts losing the Steelers cause them to win the common opponents tiebreaker? I would think it's the opposite if anything.

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'02