Quote:Thanks for the feedback!

You could say the argument is incomplete.

 

Time to start four lists.  The first two lists prove my argument; the second two refute the argument.  

 

QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are not good:

• Gabbert
  
• Newton
  
• Leaf
  
• Sanchez
  
• Alex Smith
  

TOTAL 5

 

QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are good:

• Flacco
  
• Eli Manning 
  
• Luck
  
• Griffen III
  
• Tannehill
  
• Palmer
  
• Brees
  
• Ryan
  
• Cutler
  

TOTAL 9

 

QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are good:

• Stafford
  
• Rodgers
  
• Roethlisberger
  

TOTAL 3

 

QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are not good:

• Freeman
  
• Weeden
  
• Tebow
  
• Young
  
• Leinart
  
• Losman
  
• Leftwich
  
• Boller
  

TOTAL 8

 

Guys who I didn't know where to put

• Bradford
  
• Locker
  

To conclude, if you look at any QB in the 1st round in the last ten years, you have only 48% chance of that guy being good (12/25).  If you look only at the guys who were 4 years removed from high school, you have a 53% chance they're good (9/17).  If you look only at the guys who were younger, they only have a 38% chance of being good (3/8).

 

Now, these are small sample sizes.  But I dare say that even at the smaller sample size, the difference between 38% and 53% is significant.