Quote:If the Jaguars finish with a 6-10 record, which is my prediction with the Bills, Titans, and Colts the last three weeks, what will their pick number be in the first round?

 

Let's look at the probability of each team with less than five wins except the Texans winning more or less than 6 games based on their remaining schedules. Minnesota is 3-9-1, Atlanta is 3-10, and the rest are 4-9. The Texans can't win more than 5 and doing that would be a miracle, so I am not worrying about the #1 pick anymore.

 

Bold: Home Italic: Away

 

Bills: 4-9 Jaguars, 7-6 Dolphins, 10-3 Patriots

Browns: 6-6 Bears,* 6-7 Jets, 5-8 Steelers

Buccaneers: 9-4 49ers, 5-8 Rams, 10-3 Saints

Falcons: 4-9 Redskins, 9-4 49ers, 9-4 Panthers

Raiders: 10-3 Chiefs, 6-7 Chargers, 11-2 Broncos

Redskins: 3-10 Falcons, 7-5 Cowboys,* 5-8 Giants

Vikings: 8-5 Eagles, 9-4 Bengals, 7-6 Lions

 

*Pending MNF game

 

They can't all lose out because the Redskins and Falcons meet next week. (Root for the Falcons in that one so they will have four wins.) If the Falcons beat the Redskins Sunday, only the Texans and Vikings will finish with less than four wins, so we can apply the SOS tiebreaker for the #3 pick. It is safe to assume the Vikings will be 3-11-1 at the end of the year, so I am not thinking about the #2 pick.

 

So what would the first round order be based on SOS for the Bills, Browns, Buccaneers, Falcons, Jaguars, Raiders, and Redskins starting with the #3 pick?

 

Bills, Titans, at Colts


I think the Jaguars might lose to the Bills with Maurice Jones-Drew being injured, the Bills winning 2 of the last 3 matchups, and with a lot of key Jaguar players whom did not practice under injuries it could be a close loss.  The titans are guaranteed either if the injuries continue into the next week.

 

I do think that the Jaguars will win against the Colts, since they will secure the AFC South and be resting Luck along with other key starters.  The only way they could lose that game is if the Colts are fighting for a bye week.  If that happens the team will finish with only 4 wins.

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