If the Jaguars finish with a 6-10 record, which is my prediction with the Bills, Titans, and Colts the last three weeks, what will their pick number be in the first round?

 

Let's look at the probability of each team with less than five wins except the Texans winning more or less than 6 games based on their remaining schedules. Minnesota is 4-10-1. Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Oakland are 4-11. Washington is 3-12. With only one game left, only Houston or St. Louis can get the #1 pick - with the other being #2 barring a miracle Sunday.

 

Bold: Home Italic: Away

 

Browns
:
6-8 Steelers

Buccaneers:
 10-4 Saints

Falcons:
 10-4 Panthers

Jaguars: 10-5 Colts

Raiders: 11-3 Broncos

Redskins:
5-9 Giants

Vikings:
7-7 Lions

 

So what would the first round order be based on SOS for the Browns, Buccaneers, Falcons, Jaguars, Raiders, and Redskins starting with the #2 pick?

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The kind of awesome/sucky thing about the Redskins being terrible is that they traded their 1st overall this year to the Rams for the opportunity to draft Robert Griffin III.

 

As of right now, the 3-10 Washington team has the 2nd worst record in the NFL, giving Lord Mullet a really good player if things stand pat.

 

So much for the REAL most highly touted draft pick since Andrew Luck.

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The kind of awesome/sucky thing about the Redskins being terrible is that they traded their 1st overall this year to the Rams for the opportunity to draft Robert Griffin III.

 

As of right now, the 3-10 Washington team has the 2nd worst record in the NFL, giving Lord Mullet a really good player if things stand pat.

 

So much for the REAL most highly touted draft pick since Andrew Luck.

 

The Rams must be rooting for every Redskins opponent this year except the 49ers because of that trade.

 

So the highest pick number we can hope for is #4 behind the Texans, Falcons or Rams, and Vikings? Depending on the SOS for all of the 4-9 teams, it could be later than that.

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Of the teams you listed, the Browns, Bucs, and Vikings are playing competitive ball.  The Falcons and Washington suck almost as much as Houston.  The Bills and Raiders are truly enigmatic.

 

As for our Jags, we could run the table against the Bills, Tacks and yes, even the colts.  But I don't see it.  The Jets might not win another game.

 

Before 3 games are out, the order's gonna change.  My prediciton:

 

1. Rams (via Washington, who loses out) 3-13

2. Houston (beats Tennessee and Indy) 4-12

3. Atlanta (beats Washington) 4-12

4. Oakland (loses out) 4-12

5. Tampa (beats St. Louis) 4-12

6. Minnesota (beats Detroit) 4-11-1

7. Buffalo (beats New England.  Yes, New England) 5-11

8. Jax (beats Buffalo and Indy) 6-10

 

Wild card loser:  5-8 Pittsburgh, who could lose out playing Cincy, Cleveland, and at Green Bay

 

So yeah, Jax might actually pick behind Pittsburgh

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Of the teams you listed, the Browns, Bucs, and Vikings are playing competitive ball.  The Falcons and Washington suck almost as much as Houston.  The Bills and Raiders are truly enigmatic.

 

As for our Jags, we could run the table against the Bills, Tacks and yes, even the colts.  But I don't see it.  The Jets might not win another game.

 

Before 3 games are out, the order's gonna change.  My prediciton:

 

1. Rams (via Washington, who loses out) 3-13

2. Houston (beats Tennessee and Indy) 4-12

3. Atlanta (beats Washington) 4-12

4. Oakland (loses out) 4-12

5. Tampa (beats St. Louis) 4-12

6. Minnesota (beats Detroit) 4-11-1

7. Buffalo (beats New England.  Yes, New England) 5-11

8. Jax (beats Buffalo and Indy) 6-10

 

Wild card loser:  5-8 Pittsburgh, who could lose out playing Cincy, Cleveland, and at Green Bay

 

So yeah, Jax might actually pick behind Pittsburgh

 

When the Texans put up an 18-point lead against the Colts, they were at home. For them to do it at Indianapolis, the Colts must self-destruct.

You really think the Vikings can beat the Loins? Sorry, I don't see it happening.

If the Bills can beat anybody, that team will be the Jaguars. The Patriots played pretty well without Rob Gronkowski.

If you want to worry about the Steelers losing out, you must also worry about some other 5-8 teams.

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So here are the remaining schedules for all of the 5-8 teams with my predictions because mathematically they can jump ahead of us by losing out:

 

Giants:
Seahawks, Lions, Redskins (lose lose win - 6-10)

Rams:
Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks (lose out - 5-11))

Steelers: Bengals, Packers, Browns (lose lose win - 6-10)

Titans:
Cardinals, Jaguars, Texans (lose lose win - 6-10)

 

Can you imagine the Rams having two top 5 picks?

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So here are the remaining schedules for all of the 5-8 teams with my predictions because mathematically they can jump ahead of us by losing out:

 

Giants:
Seahawks, Lions, Redskins (lose lose win - 6-10)

Rams:
Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks (lose out - 5-11))

Steelers: Bengals, Packers, Browns (lose lose win - 6-10)

Titans:
Cardinals, Jaguars, Texans (lose lose win - 6-10)

 

Can you imagine the Rams having two top 5 picks?

Given their schedule, I think the Rams could finish 5-11, and if that happens, it may be "good" enough for a top 6 pick.

 

Looking at the 5-8 teams, all of them have the potential to lose out - which would give Washington, Cleveland, Tampa, Houston and the Jags an extra win each, shaking things up yet again.

 

3 games remaining and this is far from over.

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Given their schedule, I think the Rams could finish 5-11, and if that happens, it may be "good" enough for a top 6 pick.

 

Looking at the 5-8 teams, all of them have the potential to lose out - which would give Washington, Cleveland, Tampa, Houston and the Jags an extra win each, shaking things up yet again.

 

3 games remaining and this is far from over.

 

The Redskins are a mess. Mike Shanahan is coaching for his job now. As bad as the Giants are, I don't think they have a great chance of losing that one.

 

What is the farthest down you can see us dropping?

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Indy has the division locked up. They still have a shot at the #3 seed, which means they will be playing to win for at least one more week (Houston). I doubt they'll beat KC and Cincy has an easy schedule, so Indy will probably rest their starters vs. the Jags.


 

OTOH, after seeing what happened to Kubiak, Munchack will pull out all of the stops to avoid losing to the Jags.

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"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"

Indy has the division locked up. They still have a shot at the #3 seed, which means they will be playing to win for at least one more week (Houston). I doubt they'll beat KC and Cincy has an easy schedule, so Indy will probably rest their starters vs. the Jags.


 

OTOH, after seeing what happened to Kubiak, Munchack will pull out all of the stops to avoid losing to the Jags.

 

This is not Jim Caldwell coaching the Colts, Malabar. Chuck Pagano keeps all of his starters out there as long as they are healthy, even if winning would not change their playoff seed. I wish every Jaguars fan knew and remembered that.

 

What does Kubiak have to do with Munchak?

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My predictions for all teams threatening to pick before the Jaguars and the Redskins, who traded their pick:

 

2-11 Texans: Colts, Broncos, Titans (lose lose lose - 2-14)

 

3-10 Falcons: 4-9 Redskins, 9-4 49ers, 9-4 Panthers (win lose lose - 4-12)

3-10 Redskins: 3-10 Falcons, 7-6 Cowboys, 5-8 Giants (lose lose lose - 3-13)

 

3-9-1 Vikings: 8-5 Eagles, 9-4 Bengals, 7-6 Lions (lose lose lose - 3-12-1)

 

4-9 Bills: 4-9 Jaguars, 7-6 Dolphins, 10-3 Patriots (lose lose lose - 4-12)

4-9 Browns: 7-6 Bears, 6-7 Jets, 5-8 Steelers (lose lose lose - 4-12)

4-9 Buccaneers:
9-4 49ers, 5-8 Rams, 10-3 Saints (lose lose lose - 4-12)

4-9 Raiders: 10-3 Chiefs, 6-7 Chargers, 11-2 Broncos (lose lose lose - 4-12)

 

5-8 
Giants: Seahawks, Lions, Redskins (lose lose win - 6-10)

5-8 Rams: Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks (lose win lose - 6-10)

5-8 Steelers: Bengals, Packers, Browns (lose lose win - 6-10)

5-8 Titans:
Cardinals, Jaguars, Texans (lose lose win - 6-10)

 

That would be one 2-14, one 3-13, one 3-12-1, five 4-12, and four 6-10 teams. We could drop out of the top 10 depending on the SOS.

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Does anyone know the SOS for the teams listed here?

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At this point draft order means little to me.  We'll pick where we pick, we've passed the point of having a top pick in my eyes.  We'll go at least 2-1 in the last three and push us down a little more.  There's an above average chance we end up going 7-9 and that would be incredible all things considered.  Just win, baby.  

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At this point draft order means little to me.  We'll pick where we pick, we've passed the point of having a top pick in my eyes.  We'll go at least 2-1 in the last three and push us down a little more.  There's an above average chance we end up going 7-9 and that would be incredible all things considered.  Just win, baby.  

 

It is still possible to pick in the top five depending on what other teams do and their SOS.

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It is still possible to pick in the top five depending on what other teams do and their SOS.

 

It's top 1 or bust for me.  We ran out of that race and now it's just win, baby.  If we were going to be bad (0-8) I was OK with us being really bad.  That's come and gone.  We're out of the running for pick number one so let's stick it to the rest of the NFL and go 7-1 after the bye week.

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It's top 1 or bust for me.  We ran out of that race and now it's just win, baby.  If we were going to be bad (0-8) I was OK with us being really bad.  That's come and gone.  We're out of the running for pick number one so let's stick it to the rest of the NFL and go 7-1 after the bye week.

 

Then you are extremely narrow-minded. It is not safe to assume we need the top pick to get the guy we want.

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Then you are extremely narrow-minded. It is not safe to assume we need the top pick to get the guy we want.

 

No.  You're misunderstanding what I am trying to say.  When we were losing and getting blown out week to week, I became OK with the chance at having the number one pick.  I became OK with how things were going, if we were going to lose, you might as well lose enough to ensure you have the top pick.  It was a mindset I put myself in, almost to help me cope with the beatings the team was taking.

 

Now what's happening is what in the back of my mind I hoped for.  Even with the easier schedule we are seeing improvements from Bradley and crew.  That's what this team needed, whether it came with wins or not was a question I had.  I didn't expect the improvement to result in the wins it has but now that we are seeing the wins keep them coming.  We've moved past the chance at the number 1, or even 2 pick.  Regardless the improvement is what we need to be looking for.  Developing players is a crucial part of this season and will continue to be.  Not only that, Gus is able to learn on the go as a coach.  That's an important piece of the season too.  This year was a wash as far as winning for me.  I didn't expect it and was OK with having the number one pick in the draft.

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The only game I was OK with the Jaguars losing was the Broncos one, reason being Denver was a real playoff contender and needed to stay undefeated with Kansas City having the same record. So I wanted us to go 15-1, even though I knew that could not happen. The reason I am still concerned about what other teams do is I know even if we go 2-1 the last 3 weeks, other teams can slip behind us via SOS by also finishing with a 6-10 record.

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First round draft order if the season ended today:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000...l-32-teams

 

Because of our SOS, we would be #6 after Oakland.

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If the Jaguars finish with a 6-10 record, which is my prediction with the Bills, Titans, and Colts the last three weeks, what will their pick number be in the first round?

 

Let's look at the probability of each team with less than five wins except the Texans winning more or less than 6 games based on their remaining schedules. Minnesota is 3-9-1, Atlanta is 3-10, and the rest are 4-9. The Texans can't win more than 5 and doing that would be a miracle, so I am not worrying about the #1 pick anymore.

 

Bold: Home Italic: Away

 

Bills: 4-9 Jaguars, 7-6 Dolphins, 10-3 Patriots

Browns: 6-6 Bears,* 6-7 Jets, 5-8 Steelers

Buccaneers: 9-4 49ers, 5-8 Rams, 10-3 Saints

Falcons: 4-9 Redskins, 9-4 49ers, 9-4 Panthers

Raiders: 10-3 Chiefs, 6-7 Chargers, 11-2 Broncos

Redskins: 3-10 Falcons, 7-5 Cowboys,* 5-8 Giants

Vikings: 8-5 Eagles, 9-4 Bengals, 7-6 Lions

 

*Pending MNF game

 

They can't all lose out because the Redskins and Falcons meet next week. (Root for the Falcons in that one so they will have four wins.) If the Falcons beat the Redskins Sunday, only the Texans and Vikings will finish with less than four wins, so we can apply the SOS tiebreaker for the #3 pick. It is safe to assume the Vikings will be 3-11-1 at the end of the year, so I am not thinking about the #2 pick.

 

So what would the first round order be based on SOS for the Bills, Browns, Buccaneers, Falcons, Jaguars, Raiders, and Redskins starting with the #3 pick?

 

Bills, Titans, at Colts


I think the Jaguars might lose to the Bills with Maurice Jones-Drew being injured, the Bills winning 2 of the last 3 matchups, and with a lot of key Jaguar players whom did not practice under injuries it could be a close loss.  The titans are guaranteed either if the injuries continue into the next week.

 

I do think that the Jaguars will win against the Colts, since they will secure the AFC South and be resting Luck along with other key starters.  The only way they could lose that game is if the Colts are fighting for a bye week.  If that happens the team will finish with only 4 wins.

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