Quote:11:00 PM update is the worst yet for the first coast. Here it is in a nutshell:

 

Computers are periodically put to work taking the latest information, combining it with what's already happened and projecting the future based upon that. In the case of hurricanes, there are well over a dozen different computer models used for those calculations. Those are referred to as the spaghetti models, because when they're all plotted on the screen, it looks like spaghetti.

 

The single track you see on TV is based upon those spaghetti models. Every model is different and produces a different path, but they tend to form some kind of consensus, and that's where the official "track" ends up placed.

 

Ignore that single line Deegan & Co. put on TV. Even ignore the broader swath of doom they draw up there. What's important to watch for in these models is the trends, and there's a pretty disturbing trend emerging here. For the last 36 hours or so, the models as a whole have been swinging from east to west in terms of exactly where the center of this storm will be. The piece of the puzzle that worries me most is that the models have begun swinging farther and farther west, and not rebounding as far east to take the center of the storm well offshore. That, to me, is more of a concern than any single, magical line on a map that tells us where it's going. The same sort of trend emerged during Hermine. The spaghetti models swung west to east and back, and ultimately wound up moving farther west and not rebounding as far east.

 

So what does this actually suggest? To me, it suggests that there's a very good chance of a very serious impact for Jacksonville from Matthew. The best-case scenario for Jacksonville, at this point, almost looks like it would involve Matthew making landfall south of Cape Canaveral and weakening as it hauls up the coast rather than staying just offshore. Hopefully Matthew Floyds out on you guys at the last second and makes a surprising turn offshore, but I wouldn't personally be hanging around Jacksonville to find out--this from a guy who intentionally puts himself underneath massive, dangerous storms for funsies.

 

Stay safe, be prepared, and stay tuned. This isn't the usual joke of a tropical storm that comes along and blows over some patio chairs.