Quote:Couldn't the argument also be made that the high draft position hasn't helped us either. Had we lost to the tacks on that Thursday night in 2014, Caldwell would have still taken Fowler and the tacks would have still taken Mariota. Also, had we taken Carr in 2014, we would have, arguably, the best QB in the division even with Luck being a clot. Caldwell insists that he has picked the player he would have taken first overall in each of his drafts so far and I actually believe him. It's who you pick, not when you pick, always has been always will be.

But when you pick can determine who you can pick.

 

As inept as Gene Smith was, he may well have correctly identified Andrew Luck as the top QB in 2012.

 

But Andrew Luck was never, ever going to be around at the #7 overall pick.  Not in that draft.  He was never going to be around at the #5 overall pick.

 

The lower down in the draft you go, the more you need others above you to get it wrong so you can get it the most right.  Either they have to be willing to trade out of that spot, which, in the case of a top two pick, usually costs a boatload of picks, or all of the teams above you have to not want/need that player.  The odds of one or both things happening are slim-even more so if the team at the top

needs a QB and a super talented prospect is at the top of the draft.

The league designed the draft this way-giving the worst teams priority access to the biggest available draft pool-to ensure competitive balance.

 

In many instances, the draft pool isn't such that a top pick will turn a bad team around immediately.  But sometimes even the worst run franchises get it right due to being in the right position to get players.  Nobody thinks the Colts' GM is particularly adept at drafting/constructing a roster.  But the Colts have managed to remain competitive during his tenure because he was in the position to draft Andrew Luck.  When you pick matters too.

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