Reading the tea leaves, it appears that QBs are not likely to get drafted in the top three, and likely won't go before Buffalo at 10.
Furthermore, as free agency progresses, we see Cleveland has significantly strengthened their OL, the 49ers have added to WR with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin, but still in need of a QB, and the Bears let two of their QBs and WR Alshon Jeffery walk while signing CB Prince Amukumara to a one year deal, S Q Demps from Houston, and signed Mike Glennon from Tampa.
Accordingly, we could see the top 3 draft picks look something like this:
1. Cleveland-Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A & M
2. San Francisco/Washington, Jonathan Allen, DL Alabama
3. Chicago-Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford
Now given the talent available, it is conceivable the Bears could go Lattimore, Hooker or Allen. But let's assume for the purposes of this discussion the top three picks are DL.
Where does this leave us at 4? You can make the argument that value does not meet the biggest needs on the team under this scenario. Jacksonville's biggest need is OL. There appear to be no stud OLs that are worthy of that pick. Some argue that RB has been devalued over the years, and Cook's and Fournette's somewhat ordinary 40 times diminishes their value in this draft, even though Jacksonville arguably has a huge need at RB. While Lattimore, Hooker and Allen would all be welcome additions to this defense, they represent positions that, at face value, do not represent need, given the acquisitions of Bouye and Church this year and Gipson and Ramsey last year.
Under this scenario, a natural inclination would be to trade down.
But how viable of a proposition is it for the Jaguars to trade down under these circumstances?
It is common knowledge that trades imagined on a message board are far more viable than in real life. Having dispensed with that caveat, let's explore how a trade down might happen for the Jaguars.
As it currently stands, the draft order starting with the Jaguars looks like this.
4. Jaguars
5. tacks (from Rams)
6. N.Y. Jets
7. L.A. Chargers
8. Carolina
9. Cincinnati
10. Buffalo
11. New Orleans
12. Arizona
Of these teams, there are 3, maybe 6 teams with a serious need at DB: Tennessee, the Jets, the Chargers, Buffalo, New Orleans and Arizona.
Tennessee has signed CB Logan Ryan and SS Jonathan Cyprien, but there is question as to how much these signings actually represent upgrades. But assuming Cyprien rules out Adams and Ryan solves one CB spot, Tennessee still needs a CB opposite Ryan and a FS opposite Cyprien, they sit at a prime position to land their choice of one of the DBs listed above.
If anyone wants to guarantee they will get their DB-especially Lattimore or Hooker- they will have to jump ahead of Tennessee to do it.
With Ryan era draft misses at CB with Dee Milliner and Kyle Wilson, and the decline and release of Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, the Jets are starving for a CB. It should not be cost prohibitive for them to deal up to 4 to ensure Lattimore is theirs, and they have a history of trading up to get their guy.
The Chargers are not so bad at CB as the Jets. But Verrett is recovering from a torn ACL, Brandon Flowers also ended the year on IR, and they have a need at S. With the Bolts now running Bradley's scheme, there may be a need for a big CB that can press or a fast, rangy playmaking FS as he attempts to replicate the Seahawks defense. Again, they may have to jump ahead of Tennessee to get their guy.
Buffalo just lost CB Stephon Gilmore and released S Aaron Williams. They signed DB Micah Hyde from the Packers, but he isn't enough. A defensive coach like McDermott who had success in Carolina with a stud CB in Josh Norman may want one of his own in Buffalo.
New Orleans finished 32nd against the pass. They need pass rushers, but they also need guys that can cover.
At face value, the Cards would seem okay at DB. But Peterson aside, Matthieu has had injuries, they just lost Tony Jefferson.
The quality and depth at CB and S in this draft provides disincentive for these teams to trade up, especially if they have to move too far and give up too much.
But I could see a scenario where the Jaguars move down to 6 or 7, pick up an extra pick, and still end up with a Fournette, Cook, or maybe one of those DBs for themselves.
Your thoughts, as always, are welcome.
Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!
