Reading the tea leaves, it appears that QBs are not likely to get drafted in the top three, and likely won't go before Buffalo at 10.

 

Furthermore, as free agency progresses, we see Cleveland has significantly strengthened their OL, the 49ers have added to WR with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin, but still in need of a QB, and the Bears let two of their QBs and WR Alshon Jeffery walk while signing CB Prince Amukumara to a one year deal, S Q Demps from Houston, and signed Mike Glennon from Tampa.

 

Accordingly, we could see the top 3 draft picks look something like this:

 

1.  Cleveland-Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A & M

2. San Francisco/Washington, Jonathan Allen, DL Alabama

3. Chicago-Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford

 

Now given the talent available, it is conceivable the Bears could go Lattimore, Hooker or Allen.  But let's assume for the purposes of this discussion the top three picks are DL.

 

Where does this leave us at 4?  You can make the argument that value does not meet the biggest needs on the team under this scenario.  Jacksonville's biggest need is OL.  There appear to be no stud OLs that are worthy of that pick.  Some argue that RB has been devalued over the years, and Cook's and Fournette's somewhat ordinary 40 times diminishes their value in this draft, even though Jacksonville arguably has a huge need at RB.  While Lattimore, Hooker and Allen would all be welcome additions to this defense, they represent positions that, at face value, do not represent need, given the acquisitions of Bouye and Church this year and Gipson and Ramsey last year.

 

Under this scenario, a natural inclination would be to trade down.

 

But how viable of a proposition is it for the Jaguars to trade down under these circumstances?

 

It is common knowledge that trades imagined on a message board are far more viable than in real life.  Having dispensed with that caveat, let's explore how a trade down might happen for the Jaguars.

 

As it currently stands, the draft order starting with the Jaguars looks like this.

 

4.  Jaguars

5.  tacks (from Rams)

6.  N.Y. Jets

7. L.A. Chargers

8. Carolina

9.  Cincinnati

10.  Buffalo

11.  New Orleans

12.  Arizona

 

Of these teams, there are 3, maybe 6 teams with a serious need at DB:  Tennessee, the Jets, the Chargers, Buffalo, New Orleans and Arizona.

 

Tennessee has signed CB Logan Ryan and SS Jonathan Cyprien, but there is question as to how much these signings actually represent upgrades.  But assuming Cyprien rules out Adams and Ryan solves one CB spot, Tennessee still needs a CB opposite Ryan and a FS opposite Cyprien, they sit at a prime position to land their choice of one of the DBs listed above.

 

If anyone wants to guarantee they will get their DB-especially Lattimore or Hooker- they will have to jump ahead of Tennessee to do it.

 

With Ryan era draft misses at CB with Dee Milliner and Kyle Wilson, and the decline and release of Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, the Jets are starving for a CB.  It should not be cost prohibitive for them to  deal up to 4 to ensure Lattimore is theirs, and they have a history of trading up to get their guy.

 

The Chargers are not so bad at CB as the Jets.  But Verrett is recovering from a torn ACL, Brandon Flowers also ended the year on IR, and they have a need at S.  With the Bolts now running Bradley's scheme, there may be a need for a big CB that can press or a fast, rangy playmaking FS as he attempts to replicate the Seahawks defense.  Again, they may have to jump ahead of Tennessee to get their guy.

 

Buffalo just lost CB Stephon Gilmore and released S Aaron Williams.  They signed DB Micah Hyde from the Packers, but he isn't enough.  A defensive coach like McDermott who had success in Carolina with a stud CB in Josh Norman may want one of his own in Buffalo.

 

New Orleans finished 32nd against the pass.  They need pass rushers, but they also need guys that can cover.  

 

At face value, the Cards would seem okay at DB.  But Peterson aside, Matthieu has had injuries, they just lost Tony Jefferson.

 

The quality and depth at CB and S in this draft provides disincentive for these teams to trade up, especially if they have to move too far and give up too much.

 

But I could see a scenario where the Jaguars move down to 6 or 7, pick up an extra pick, and still end up with a Fournette, Cook, or maybe one of those DBs for themselves.

 

Your thoughts, as always, are welcome.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I think it'd be difficult for someone to want to trade up for a DB/S.  We'd have to be offering them a heck of a deal to do so.  Otherwise, our best hope is probably Buffalo or Arizona wanting to jump NYJ for a QB.


If it's possible, I'd definitely be open to trade back and take a Lamp/Robinson as a guard or OJ Howard.  I think we pretty much have to stick at 4 though and probably take Fournette.

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Jonathan Allen isn't going in the top 5

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"A man with no sauce is lost.

<p style="text-align:center;">But that same man can get lost in the sauce."

Yeah I don't see Jonathan Allen even sniffing the top 5. He looks more like a late teens kind of player, at least to my untrained eye.

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If health is no concern, then Allen should go top 5 IMO, but I don't think that's the case.

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Yeah I don't see Jonathan Allen even sniffing the top 5. He looks more like a late teens kind of player, at least to my untrained eye.

Talent wise he's a top 5 pick all day. He has bad shoulders (see combine bench rep #) which will cause a slide.

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Talent wise he's a top 5 pick all day. He has bad shoulders (see combine bench rep #) which will cause a slide.

I don't see it. I see a Tyson Alualu. (The one from Cal)..

Tyson was more explosive than this guy too.


He's short, doesn't have any special about him.. I honestly don't see it.

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I don't see it. I see a Tyson Alualu. (The one from Cal)..

Tyson was more explosive than this guy too.


He's short, doesn't have any special about him.. I honestly don't see it.

No freaking way!  Don't be fooled by 40 times.

 

There is no way Alualu as a collegiate player was better than Allen.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

No freaking way!  Don't be fooled by 40 times.

 

There is no way Alualu as a collegiate player was better than Allen.

 

I wasn't fooled by his combine - I was actually expecting it.

 

Weeks prior to the combine I wrote about how I don't see Allen as an elite prospect and that he actually reminds me of Alualu.  Undersized DTs that are solid but will not be spectacular. 

 

The combine just confirmed what I already suspected - nothing about him is elite.  He doesn't have elite size, doesn't have elite speed or explosiveness, etc.  He played at Alabama with a bunch of really good players so who knows how good he really is.  I personally would stay away from him. 

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I wasn't fooled by his combine - I was actually expecting it.

 

Weeks prior to the combine I wrote about how I don't see Allen as an elite prospect and that he actually reminds me of Alualu.  Undersized DTs that are solid but will not be spectacular. 

 

The combine just confirmed what I already suspected - nothing about him is elite.  He doesn't have elite size, doesn't have elite speed or explosiveness, etc.  He played at Alabama with a bunch of really good players so who knows how good he really is.  I personally would stay away from him. 

This may well be true.

 

But there is no way ANYONE will EVER convince me Alualu was in any way a better collegiate football player than Allen.

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I think it'd be difficult for someone to want to trade up for a DB/S.  We'd have to be offering them a heck of a deal to do so.  Otherwise, our best hope is probably Buffalo or Arizona wanting to jump NYJ for a QB.

If it's possible, I'd definitely be open to trade back and take a Lamp/Robinson as a guard or OJ Howard.  I think we pretty much have to stick at 4 though and probably take Fournette.

Well, consider the personnel requirements of Bradley's defense.

 

It needs long physical CBs.  It also needs a S with unlimited range.  There is only one FS in this draft that comes close to approximating what Earl Thomas did, and that's Hooker.  Bradley and Caldwell indicated an Earl Thomas type of S is hard to find...in many instances harder to find than the CB.

 

If it is that hard to find, and if it is that important to the scheme, then they need to ensure they get it.  Under these circumstances, the only way to do so would be to trade up.

 

Also, I don't think it would take a truckload of picks to move from 7 to 4.

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This may well be true.


But there is no way ANYONE will EVER convince me Alualu was in any way a better collegiate football player than Allen.

That's fine - I'm not necessarily saying he's better. I am saying they are similar in the "type" of player they are. Go watch some draft videos of Alualu. He looked pretty good and explosive.


I don't think drafting Allen will give us anything much different than what Alualu gave us. I'm dead serious. I think he may get a few more sacks here and there but meh... I'll pass.

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That's fine - I'm not necessarily saying he's better. I am saying they are similar in the "type" of player they are. Go watch some draft videos of Alualu. He looked pretty good and explosive.


I don't think drafting Allen will give us anything much different than what Alualu gave us. I'm dead serious. I think he may get a few more sacks here and there but meh... I'll pass.

I do think there would be some redundancy in terms of the Allen pick for us.

 

I would think a better allocation of of that first round pick would be Lattimore, Hooker, or Fournette.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I wasn't fooled by his combine - I was actually expecting it.


Weeks prior to the combine I wrote about how I don't see Allen as an elite prospect and that he actually reminds me of Alualu. Undersized DTs that are solid but will not be spectacular.


The combine just confirmed what I already suspected - nothing about him is elite. He doesn't have elite size, doesn't have elite speed or explosiveness, etc. He played at Alabama with a bunch of really good players so who knows how good he really is. I personally would stay away from him.

I guess on one hand you can say that the Bama defense had a ton of NFL talent and that Allen benefited from that a lot, but on the other hand you could also say that on a defense filled with NFL talent , Allen stood out above all of them as the best of the bunch.

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Let's not be silly.

 

Allen isn't likely to slide out of the top five.

 

Planet Theory is more than theory, it's real.

 

He's likely to be drafted in the top five even if some here think his arms are going to fall off.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

I think the 49ers will take either Kizer or Tribisky, one of them will have a really good proday and it'll just be another Jared Goff 2.0 situation. I also think Deshaun Watson could be a potential top 3 pick, he could see a similar rise ala Cam Netwon.


1. Cleveland - Garrett DE

2. 49ers - Kizer QB

3. Bears - Adams S/Allen DT

4. Jags - Fournette HB

5. Titans - Allen DT/ Adams S

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No freaking way!  Don't be fooled by 40 times.

 

There is no way Alualu as a collegiate player was better than Allen.

Tons of Bama guys are great college players where they can get away with multiple failed drug tests and take that deer antler spray, but somehow, when they get to the NFL on an even playing field, they are very average.

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Although I don't see the Jaguars trading back, it certainly is possible that they do get an offer to trade back to the Jets or Cardinals. Hopefully they could get a 3rd rounder out of this deal, although they may have to also part with one of their 7th rounders. This deal would be a no-brainer since both running backs should still be on the board. The extra 3rd would be very valuable since they could use it to trade back into the 1st and get Lamp or just keep it and get a combination of the best offensive lineman in the 2nd (Feeney, Dawkins, Robinson) and tight end in the 3rd (Hodges, Leggett, Shaheen). 

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Tons of Bama guys are great college players where they can get away with multiple failed drug tests and take that deer antler spray, but somehow, when they get to the NFL on an even playing field, they are very average.

I did not start this thread to be a referendum on the legitimacy of Alabama football.

 

That said, there have been plenty, and I mean PLENTY of successful Alabama football players in the NFL.

 

QB-Bart Starr*$+

      Joe Namath*$+

       Ken Stabler*$+

RB-Shaun Alexander*

       Eddie Lacy*

TE Ozzie Newsome*+

WR-Julio Jones*

WR Don Hutson+!  On NFLs 75th Anniversary team

LT Chris Samuels*

LG John Hannah*+! -On NFLs 75th Anniversary team

C  Dwight Stephenson*+

OLB Derrick Thomas*+

OLB Cornelius Bennett*

LB EJ Junior*

D'Onta Hightower*$

Landon Collins*

Ha Ha Clinton Dix*

 

Key:

 

*-Pro Bowl; $ Super bowl champion; + Hall of Famer; !-on NFLs 75th anniversary team.

 

This is far from an all inclusive list

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Although I don't see the Jaguars trading back, it certainly is possible that they do get an offer to trade back to the Jets or Cardinals. Hopefully they could get a 3rd rounder out of this deal, although they may have to also part with one of their 7th rounders. This deal would be a no-brainer since both running backs should still be on the board. The extra 3rd would be very valuable since they could use it to trade back into the 1st and get Lamp or just keep it and get a combination of the best offensive lineman in the 2nd (Feeney, Dawkins, Robinson) and tight end in the 3rd (Hodges, Leggett, Shaheen). 

Precisely.

 

I think they could get an offer.  If they aren't greedy about it, they could get a useful player out of it when all is said and done.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!