(06-10-2020, 09:54 PM)mikesez Wrote:

(06-10-2020, 09:20 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: Biden has a record he has to explain and has to come out of the basement at some point. The Trump campaign has a ton of cash and will go on the offensive when the time is right. Still 4.5 months this to go, which is a lifetime. 

Not to mention the importance of the VP pick and also he will be pulled to the far left before it's all said and done. 

With the economy on the upswing and the lawless left going insane,  I like his chances.

That's actually decent analysis.
Nice work.

I think you're correct that we're going to see each man launch new and surprising attacks on the opponent's record and past life events.  And Biden has plenty of stuff Trump can bring up that Biden would rather not discuss.

But I think all that effort isn't going to amount to much for either team, because people just don't watch TV and consume media the same way they did even 10 years ago. People are much more skilled at dodging advertisements that they don't want to see. You've got people tuned into media that's generally only going to give positive stories of Trump, other people tuned into media that's generally only going to give negative stories of Trump, and a way too small minority of people are tuned into news can go either way. The first group is going to vote for Trump no matter what, the second group is going to vote for Biden no matter what, and the third group might not even vote. 

Ultimately I think this election is just going to be a referendum on Trump.  He'll get a share of the national vote equal to his job approval rating plus maybe 5 points. Right now that's not enough to win. Trump's got to ingratiate himself to the public more to have a chance.  But like you said, he still has plenty of time.

Rallies starting back up soon. Enthusiasm will return. Maybe you are right about TV, but Biden can't avoid a debate, and I think we can all agree he can only be coached so much. News cycles past fast. People have already forgotten Biden saying you ain't black if you dont vote for him.

Biden had been in politics for 50 years and accomplished nothing. Voters arent stupid. Well, most of them.

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