Going into the holiday week, the tacks have lost two of their last three and are now in second place behind the also 6-3 Colts. the Texans are an underwhelming 2-7 after losing to Cleveland im horrible weather (even for Cleveland), while the Jaguars were screwed by officiating again on a completely bogus holding call that wiped out a TD which represented the difference in a 24-20 loss to the Packers. Now I readily admit the Packers are a better team than the Jaguars by a long shot. I readily admit I picked the Packers to win in a rout. I readily admit given the team's record, I was not broken up about the loss to the Packers, and I readily admit that even without that Penalty, I believe the Packers would have won. But call the games evenly and fairly. I think on the whole, the Jaguars outplayed the Packers, and it shouldn't concoct a fictional holding penalty to negate an otherwise earned TD.
In any event, the Colts win over the tacks marred what wound up being a 2-1 week. Hopefully I can have another unbeaten week.
On to this week's picks...
Pittsburgh (9-0) at
Jacksonville (1-8) Sad notes coming into this game. First, if the Jaguars lose this game, Shad Khan will be either the fastest or second fastest owner to 100 losses in NFL history. Secondly, in terms of all time W-L-T percentage, the Jaguars are the third worst team in NFL history with a .433 winning percentage, ahead of only Arizona at .424 and Tampa at .391. However, despite those ignominious marks, the Jaguars have managed to have success against the Steelers over the years, managing a 14-12 series lead. The Jaguars are the only team to beat the Steelers twice in Pittsburgh in the same season, and they managed that feat twice (2007, 2017 seasons). Though as confident as history suggests I might be going into this game, the fact is, for the first time in this series history, this is the first time since the inaugural season of 1995 I go into a Jaguars-Steelers game believing this team has no chance in hell of winning this game. There is nothing close to a matchup that favors the Jaguars. The Steelers are first in scoring offense. The Jaguars are ranked 31st in scoring defense. The Steelers are 3rd in scoring defense, while the Jaguars are 26th in scoring offense. The Steelers have a notoriously complex defense that blitzes from all kinds of angles and leads the league in sacks with 36 against a 6th round rookie QB making his 3rd career start. It goes on and on from there in just about every aspect of the game. Worse, whatever semblance of pass defense the Jaguars might be able to muster diminished considerably when rookie CB CJ Henderson was placed on IR today. It appears Steelers' LT Alejandro Villenueva may not play, but the Jaguars' best pass rusher, Josh Allen, is having a down season compared to last year, in large part due to the departures of Ngakoue and Campbell, in part because of what he is being asked to do (play some big end, which carries more run responsibility). My long hatred of the Steelers would give me joy should the Jaguars pull off the upset here, but I see no way that happens.
Steelers win 31-7.
New England (4-5) at
Houston (2-7)-a down year for both franchises. Though I have mad respect for belichick, I don't buy into the hype the media is pushing that the Patriots could have easily won anoteher couple of games. WHile true, they also could have lost a couple more games too, including the game to the Jets, who outplayed the Patriots for three quarters until completely folding in the 4th. Watson is a better QB than Cam Newton this year and he has better weapons.
Houston wins 24-21.
Tennessee (6-3) at
Baltimore (6-3) -In a battle of two contending but increasingly desperate teams, the tacks, losers of 3 of their last 4 games, travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens, losers of 2 of the last 3. While I have not looked at the weather forecasts for the area, I don't think Jackson will face the horrible weather he had last week against the Patriots, and he goes up against a Tennessee defense that seemingly has fallen off in comparisons to seasons past. While the tacks have a balanced offense, I think this week will be one of those weeks the tacks miss Taylor Lewan, as the Ravens have a wide array of pass rushers, including Judon, Ngakooue and Campbell.
Ravens win 27-17.
Green Bay (7-2) at
Indianapolis (6-3)-in another of the week's top matchups, the Packers and Colts battle in Indy. This time I DID look at the weather forecast for the game. I don't know if the dome will be closed, but rain is forecast for the game, but no strong winds. Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Fame QB and is capable of picking just about any team apart. But for the past two games, the Packers have been embarrassed physically, even though last week they beat my hapless Jaguars. If there is one thing the Colts are capable of being, it's physical.
Colts win 30-24.
Last week: 2-1
Overall: 23-7
Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!
