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Draft grades


(05-03-2021, 06:40 PM)rpr52121 Wrote:
(05-03-2021, 06:29 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Actually this sort of thing is common with new administrations/management structures.  They can't fire the scouts as soon as they arrive, because they have all of the information regarding the upcoming draft prospects.  If they fired them at the time, they'd be drafting blind.  They wait until after the draft them cut them loose. 

Not necessarily a UM thing.

More like Baalke wanting to get his guys in there.

Not only that, but this fits with the UM message from his hiring that they needed to step up all the facilities and supporting administration/people. They just had to wait until the draft finished like OzJohnnie said.

Speaking of which, I wonder if they have an in house psychologist/psychiatrist/mental health counselor, considering Chark did a PSA that shows on NFLN about mental health, and CJ Henderson is rumored to have MH issues.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(05-03-2021, 06:34 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Drafting a player with a trait that fits your overall team paradigm (i.e. speed) is NOT the same thing as drafting for positional need.  He also wanted more speed on defense.

Well couching it like that makes every pick justifiable as BAP. That's why most of us often say BAP is a myth.
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Chris Simms likes our draft

http://vplayer.nbcsports.com/p/BxmELC/nb...lbCcSC_0E_
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(05-03-2021, 08:22 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Chris Simms likes our draft

http://vplayer.nbcsports.com/p/BxmELC/nb...lbCcSC_0E_

Seems like the only ones who don't like it are the resident blow-hards.. Go figure..
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(05-03-2021, 08:22 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Chris Simms likes our draft

http://vplayer.nbcsports.com/p/BxmELC/nb...lbCcSC_0E_

He might of liked it more than anyone , 4 of our drafted players were top 2 rated at their positions on his board.  Cisco was his top rated safety
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https://youtu.be/4TjvTIzcJA8
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(05-03-2021, 04:38 PM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(05-03-2021, 02:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote: So assuming they had a BAP approach, do you assert their board was off or less than accurate, or did they somehow otherwise abandon that approach?

I think the critics' problem with the draft is that the Jaguars did not draft for need.  A lot of the criticism is based on not spending high picks on positions the critics think we needed.  A lot of the critics would have drafted the best offensive lineman available at pick 25, for example.  No matter what.  They would have put their perceived need to replace our offensive tackles above any other consideration.  I think that's one of the main reasons for the criticism.

I don't want to speak for all critics, but I believe many critics would argue that we got neither value nor need with our #25 and #33 picks.  I just looked up the first 8 pre-draft rankings of 2021 draft prospects that I could find. 8 out of 8 (100%) not only had a player rated higher than Etienne available at that spot, but all of them had a higher rated player at what I would have considered a need position (offensive tackle, safety or edge).  Ditto for the Campbell pick.  Again, 8 out of 8 (100%) not only had a better player available, but they had a better player available at a need position.  The situation was more dire for the Campbell pick.  We took him at 33.  The best ranking that I could find had him rated 39th.  His average ranking was around 60th.  It's one thing to abandon a need to get a great value or when there's simply no good players available at your need positions.  It's another thing to abandon a need to get a player who the consensus doesn't even think is worthy of that spot.  That's why people are upset.
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(05-03-2021, 05:17 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(05-03-2021, 04:27 PM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: Pretty clear they had no idea what they were doing... that's why Urban wanted Baalke. A useless yesman.

But many observers gave the team an "A" for their draft.

I mean if they had "NO idea what they were doing," how did they end up with Lawrence?  How did they end up with A grades?

100% of mock drafts that I saw had Lawrence going first.  My niece who doesn't watch football could have picked Trevor Lawrence.  Someone could have been pretty clueless and made that pick.

As for the grades, I addressed this in a message earlier.  First, not all gave "A" grades.  The average came out to B+, which isn't bad, but not everyone gave the team an A as you implied.  Second, that B+ grade was highly influenced by the Trevor Lawrence pick.  I don't have the exact quote in front of me, but one basically said something along the lines of "When you draft a generational quarterback, your draft gets an A."  In other words, the Jaguars could have royally screwed up the rest of the draft and still gotten an A.  I don't think that gives many Jaguars fans comfort as they knew and have known for months that we are getting Trevor Lawrence.  We wanted the team to do well with picks #2 through #10 as well.  My guess is that many of the grades would have dropped by a full letter grade if it weren't for the Lawrence pick.  That B+ probably goes down to around a C+ without Lawrence and any GM in his right mind would have taken Lawrence.  Third, many graders base it upon what you got and not how well you did with the draft capital that you had.  As I pointed out previously, three teams didn't have a first round pick.  Those three teams got the three worst grades in the entire NFL for their draft.  Coincidence?  I don't think so.  They got bad grades (at least in part and probably in large part) because of their draft position and not how well they did given their position.  When you have more and earlier picks like the Jaguars, you should expect to get more.  When you are picking at #1, #25, #33, #45 and #65, you should expect to walk away with more quality players than a team whose first pick was #67.  To me, that's not the standard and you don't deserve a good grade for passing that extremely low bar.  The standard is how well did you maximize the benefit from picks #1, #25, #33, #45 and #65 (and the others)?  Would another GM have done better?  Fourth, most national graders are not going to be familiar with all 32 teams and many of them will be completely ignorant of the Jaguars and their needs.  They are lazy and will assume if the Jaguars took a position that they must have needed it.  The Jaguars had a couple of a major failures in terms of need early in the draft.  Most national graders won't adjust the team's grade because of it, but the more knowledgeable Jaguars fans will.  Hence, the lower draft score.
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(This post was last modified: 05-03-2021, 11:55 PM by TheDuke007.)

(05-03-2021, 05:20 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(05-03-2021, 04:34 PM)Upper Wrote: Considering the 5 picks after Tlaw were his teammate and then four people that Meyer openly recruited hard 4 years ago...my first assumption is that our board was heavily pared down compared to most teams. I think they probably did take what they think was BAP after that. I just don't think any of them actually were.

So it's inaccuracy by omission?

I'm not sure if I fault Meyer for putting an emphasis on guys he has first hand background information on.

(05-03-2021, 04:38 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: I think the critics' problem with the draft is that the Jaguars did not draft for need.  A lot of the criticism is based on not spending high picks on positions the critics think we needed.  A lot of the critics would have drafted the best offensive lineman available at pick 25, for example.  No matter what.  They would have put their perceived need to replace our offensive tackles above any other consideration.  I think that's one of the main reasons for the criticism.

I can understand the criticism based on need.  That's not what I'm asking about, though I wanted to explore his logic above.  As to the larger initial inquiry. I'm wondering about the lack of defense of the team's draft based upon BAP.

It seems nobody thinks the Jaguars drafted BAP, even though nobody has access to their board.

Fans almost never have access to a team's board.  The team will be accused of ignoring BAP if they ignore players that people consider BAP.  As I stated in a previous message, I looked at 8 different draft prospect rankings.  Not one had Etienne as the BAP at that spot.  Ditto for Campbell and by an even larger margin.  To pour salt on the wounds, at both draft spots, there were players available at need positions that were considered very good value at those spots.  In most cases, multiple players.  We got neither need nor value.  Maybe every single draft analyst is wrong and the Jaguars are right, but when a team makes moves that don't make much sense, they are going to be criticized for it.  Would you expect anything less?
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All the angst and second guessing is fine, it's what fans do. But grading a draft immediately after is like judging a college recruiting class before they've played their first game. One thing Meyer has demonstrated in his career is the ability to recognize talent so I'm betting in retrospect this draft will get a better grade then it's currently being given.

With that said, I'll give the draft a B+. I really like Little, I think he'll be looked at as one of the steals of the draft. Obviously Lawrence was a no brainer. The rest are largely solid picks demonstrating Meyer's commitment to building better team speed and a better culture.
I'm condescending. That means I talk down to you.
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It’s a B - from me.

TL skews it high , but I like the CB and safety adds. Underwhelmed by the too early RB, but he may form a good tandem anyway.

If Little wins a job and plays well in 2022 and Tufele contributes, it’s an A.
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(05-03-2021, 08:22 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Chris Simms likes our draft

http://vplayer.nbcsports.com/p/BxmELC/nb...lbCcSC_0E_

Yes, he gives a pretty good explanation of what he thinks we are doing with the design of our offense.
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"Wilson is better than Trevor".... Simms is an idiot!

"I love the Jags draft."...... Look how smart Simms is!

Again. It's ok to disagree with draft selections and still hope for the best.
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(05-04-2021, 06:29 AM)MarleyJag Wrote: All the angst and second guessing is fine, it's what fans do. But grading a draft immediately after is like judging a college recruiting class before they've played their first game. One thing Meyer has demonstrated in his career is the ability to recognize talent so I'm betting in retrospect this draft will get a better grade then it's currently being given.

With that said, I'll give the draft a B+. I really like Little, I think he'll be looked at as one of the steals of the draft. Obviously Lawrence was a no brainer. The rest are largely solid picks demonstrating Meyer's commitment to building better team speed and a better culture.

I'll wait and see how the draft plays out the next few years. It is too early to be upset or jubilant over any of the team's drafts as every player has a bust factor and every player has the ability to be very good.  After the last 10 years no, more like 20 my expectations are we play a little better than the expansion year. I saw real progress as the year went on and then we went on a run. Of course that management team while building a really good team failed at transitioning year to year eventually falling apart. My dream is this management can both make a run, but after that keep it together and transition as time goes on like many really good teams do. If you look at things that way then this was a good draft.
A new broom always sweeps clean.
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(05-04-2021, 08:35 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: "Wilson is better than Trevor".... Simms is an idiot!

"I love the Jags draft."...... Look how smart Simms is!

Again. It's ok to disagree with draft selections and still hope for the best.

Quiet blowhard, you're not allowed to think that way.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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(05-04-2021, 08:41 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote:
(05-04-2021, 08:35 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: "Wilson is better than Trevor".... Simms is an idiot!

"I love the Jags draft."...... Look how smart Simms is!

Again. It's ok to disagree with draft selections and still hope for the best.

Quiet blowhard, you're not allowed to think that way.

Of course he does.. He just doesn't drone on about it..
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(This post was last modified: 05-04-2021, 09:06 AM by Bullseye.)

(05-03-2021, 11:52 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote:
(05-03-2021, 05:20 PM)Bullseye Wrote: So it's inaccuracy by omission?

I'm not sure if I fault Meyer for putting an emphasis on guys he has first hand background information on.


I can understand the criticism based on need.  That's not what I'm asking about, though I wanted to explore his logic above.  As to the larger initial inquiry. I'm wondering about the lack of defense of the team's draft based upon BAP.

It seems nobody thinks the Jaguars drafted BAP, even though nobody has access to their board.

Fans almost never have access to a team's board.  The team will be accused of ignoring BAP if they ignore players that people consider BAP.  As I stated in a previous message, I looked at 8 different draft prospect rankings.  Not one had Etienne as the BAP at that spot.  Ditto for Campbell and by an even larger margin.  To pour salt on the wounds, at both draft spots, there were players available at need positions that were considered very good value at those spots.  In most cases, multiple players.  We got neither need nor value.  Maybe every single draft analyst is wrong and the Jaguars are right, but when a team makes moves that don't make much sense, they are going to be criticized for it.  Would you expect anything less?

Of course fans won't have access to the team's board.

While your diligence in comparing eight different player rankings boards is really quite commendable, there are still problems with that approach to the analysis.  First and most obviously, none of those player rankings boards may actually reflect the feelings of the Jaguars specifically or NFL teams generally. If, for example, the creator of a board has a positional bias against RBs in the first round that NFL teams don't have, them it stands to reason any RB would be ranked lower on the board than the NFL team might rank them.  Player rankings boards do not take into account the overall philosophies of the teams drafting or the draft order.  That's why most sites have separate mock drafts and player rankings boards.  A team's player rankings board will undoubtedly take their own schemes, player or positional paradigms and philosophies into account.   As a result, even if these things threw off the rankings by as little as one spot (i.e. the average ranking is 26th as opposed to 25th), the Jaguars might come off on the losing end of the analysis even if they stuck to BAP philosophy according to their own rankings.

Secondly, creators of these board can tell you there isn't necessarily a correlation between the board rankings and draft order, because any number of things can impact where a player comes off the board.  Even assuming any player rankings board or aggregate ranking of numerous player rankings boards reflect the feelings of NFL teams, a trade up by a team desperate for a position can skew the board.  Teams may well have felt JOK was a first round pick in terms of pure talent, but his medical condition recently revealed knocked him down.  Farley was ranked in the top ten for the first part of the offseason until his back surgery was disclosed.  Furthermore, the unpredictable pick nor non pick-whether or not skewed by a trade or undisclosed medical condition or character concern-can also throw things off.  Almost nobody had Leatherwood the 17th ranked player on their board, and almost nobody had him going ahead of Darrisaw.  Once the unexpected happens, teams below them could adjust their boards accordingly.  Guys they didn't expect to be on the board at their picks are suddenly there, while guys they expected to be there are gone.  That impacts who gets taken off the board and when.   Do teams make mistakes?  Absolutely.  Lord knows the Jaguars have made more than their share.  But what is never considered is that maybe those who compile these player rankings for public consumption make mistakes, too.

(05-04-2021, 06:29 AM)MarleyJag Wrote: All the angst and second guessing is fine, it's what fans do. But grading a draft immediately after is like judging a college recruiting class before they've played their first game. One thing Meyer has demonstrated in his career is the ability to recognize talent so I'm betting in retrospect this draft will get a better grade then it's currently being given.

With that said, I'll give the draft a B+. I really like Little, I think he'll be looked at as one of the steals of the draft. Obviously Lawrence was a no brainer. The rest are largely solid picks demonstrating Meyer's commitment to building better team speed and a better culture.

I certainly hope you are right about this draft class getting better grades over time and games played.  That's ultimately what counts.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(This post was last modified: 05-04-2021, 09:23 AM by Bullseye.)

(05-04-2021, 08:35 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: "Wilson is better than Trevor".... Simms is an idiot!

"I love the Jags draft."...... Look how smart Simms is!

Again. It's ok to disagree with draft selections and still hope for the best.

Laughing

Of course it's okay to disagree with the selections and hope for the best. 

I do it all the time.  In fact, I'd say most fans do that.

I just find it odd that for all of the BAP advocates on the board, nobody is defending this as a BAP draft, even though drafting players at positions of relative strength like RB or CB while eschewing positions of greater need is an indicia of BAP drafting. Every year we have the BAP vs need debate. Every year this very hypothetical comes up in the debate. Yet nobody is defending this draft on that basis.

I'm not sure if it's an indictment of the Jaguars, the BAP advocates, both or neither.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(05-03-2021, 02:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(05-03-2021, 02:41 PM)Upper Wrote: I don't think a single one of our picks (after Tlaw) was even close to the best available player when we picked them, and I like some of our picks.

So assuming they had a BAP approach, do you assert their board was off or less than accurate, or did they somehow otherwise abandon that approach?

With some of the picks  that I consider to be poorer (IMO), I personally think it was a little of Column A (their value board was off), a little of Column B (need won out over BAP) and a little of Column C (their ranking of needs was off).
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(05-03-2021, 10:50 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote:
(05-03-2021, 04:38 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: I think the critics' problem with the draft is that the Jaguars did not draft for need.  A lot of the criticism is based on not spending high picks on positions the critics think we needed.  A lot of the critics would have drafted the best offensive lineman available at pick 25, for example.  No matter what.  They would have put their perceived need to replace our offensive tackles above any other consideration.  I think that's one of the main reasons for the criticism.

I don't want to speak for all critics, but I believe many critics would argue that we got neither value nor need with our #25 and #33 picks.  I just looked up the first 8 pre-draft rankings of 2021 draft prospects that I could find. 8 out of 8 (100%) not only had a player rated higher than Etienne available at that spot, but all of them had a higher rated player at what I would have considered a need position (offensive tackle, safety or edge).  Ditto for the Campbell pick.  Again, 8 out of 8 (100%) not only had a better player available, but they had a better player available at a need position.  The situation was more dire for the Campbell pick.  We took him at 33.  The best ranking that I could find had him rated 39th.  His average ranking was around 60th.  It's one thing to abandon a need to get a great value or when there's simply no good players available at your need positions.  It's another thing to abandon a need to get a player who the consensus doesn't even think is worthy of that spot.  That's why people are upset.
You all just want to be right regardless of what any one says.I can't wait til we have a better season than the Chargers did last year on offense. If those free agents continue to play to there level we address going yup win more of those closer games we lost. Again we don't have a squad of losers.We have a squad that is learning how to win...consistently
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