Let's call this what it is: the election is over. Hillary won. This was established long ago. The CBS news showed live footage from a Trump rally tonight. The attendance was such that Whatshisface who's running with Hillary would have been disappointed. So why, shortly before election day, has the race "tightened up"?


My theory: the polls are being manipulated to draw votes away from third-party candidates. If the Libertarian Party in particular were to sneak away with 10% of the vote, or that Evan McMullin guy were to somehow win Utah, do you have any idea how much egg an already-torn establishment from both parties would have on its face?


So, yes, tinfoil hat time, I think that the inexplicable rise of Donald Trump in the polls is nothing more than a ploy to get voters out to the polls, and to make sure that there are no "unwanted" third-party success stories.


Agree? Disagree? Curious about what I'm drinking and want some? Discuss.

Trump IS the egg on the face of the establishment. They don't gain anything propping him up. Moreover, the blue wall gives her an advantage but nothings over.

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Trump IS the egg on the face of the establishment. They don't gain anything propping him up. Moreover, the blue wall gives her an advantage but nothings over.

 

What's the blue wall?  

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What's the blue wall?  

 

Based on current demographics there is a block of states that are typically "solid blue" that add up to roughly 242 electoral votes.  Some refer to this as the blue wall.  The implication being that a Democrat only has to campaign for an extra 28 electoral votes while the republican has to thread a needle of about a dozen swing states to hit 270. 

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Based on current demographics there is a block of states that are typically "solid blue" that add up to roughly 242 electoral votes.  Some refer to this as the blue wall.  The implication being that a Democrat only has to campaign for an extra 28 electoral votes while the republican has to thread a needle of about a dozen swing states to hit 270. 

 

Yes, that is true.  But Republicans do manage it all the time, so I'm not sure how effective that blue wall is.  

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Yes, that is true. But Republicans do manage it all the time, so I'm not sure how effective that blue wall is.

About as effective as the border fence, but I digress.

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Yes, that is true.  But Republicans do manage it all the time, so I'm not sure how effective that blue wall is.  

 

It's not a guarantee by any means.  There hasn't been a Republican win a majority of the popular vote and loose the electoral college in the last 40 years, in fact quite the opposite with bush in 00.  However, when you take a step back you see that the Dems have won 4 of the last 6 electoral colleges and the two losses didn't allow their opponent to break 289 (bushes total from 04)

 

Take this year for example, it's completely possible that Trump could have a 2-4% popular vote advantage and still be hoping and praying for the last 6 electoral votes while that kind of advantage for Clinton would probably put her well into the 300's. 

 

I think it can be broken.  I think that the polling out of Michigan Minnesota and even Wisconsin suggests cracks in the BLUE WALL but the general demographic shift and entrenched liberal support in some states does present a systemic problem for republican nominees. 

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It was cute how all the lefties denied it was this close.  Guess they've accepted it now.

 

Shows how pathetic their candidate is.  A career politician who was already in the Whitehouse (albeit through the back door as a reluctant spouse) should have crushed any outsider, particularly one with the generous amount of flaws Trump has... and especially one without the support of his own party vs how the faithful D falls in line like lemmings and votes straight ticket.

 

Instead, she had to be propped up and pushed to the finish line with more help than any other candidate in history has from the media... and it's still neck and neck, within the margin of error.  Which, has been the case for the majority of the time according to the most objective, reputable polls.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

It was cute how all the lefties denied it was this close. Guess they've accepted it now.


Shows how pathetic their candidate is. A career politician who was already in the Whitehouse (albeit through the back door as a reluctant spouse) should have crushed any outsider, particularly one with the generous amount of flaws Trump has... and especially one without the support of his own party vs how the faithful D falls in line like lemmings and votes straight ticket.


Instead, she had to be propped up and pushed to the finish line with more help than any other candidate in history has from the media... and it's still neck and neck, within the margin of error. Which, has been the case for the majority of the time according to the most objective, reputable polls.

What do you consider a reputable poll?

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What do you consider a reputable poll?

 

One that doesn't oversample the D for cheerleading purposes, lacking integrity.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

https://youtu.be/OTMaIX_JPE4



Lol

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One that doesn't oversample the D for cheerleading purposes, lacking integrity.

They have always over sampled Democrats in the past as well. Polls were accurate in the past to varying degrees.


In 2012


ABC/Washington Post had Obama leading by 1% on the week of 10/30-11/3


Partisan make up

35 D

30 R

34 U


2016


ABC/ Washington Post today has Clinton up 1%



The partisan make up was

37 D

29 R

29 U


Seems consistent and not unique to this election cycle.

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The majority have been consistently inaccurate in recent times.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

The majority have been consistently inaccurate in recent times.

Based on your perception of accurate.


Nate Silver has good data that disproves that statement. For two straight elections the data has been accurate as the data has been 99% accurate in picking the states EV allocation.


I know you don't want to hear it, but 6 days away to Election Day and Trump is not winning according to the data. I agree 100% that it can change over the next 6 days. That will not mean today's data was incorrect.

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It was cute how all the lefties denied it was this close.  Guess they've accepted it now.

 

 

Also cute how all the Righties claimed the polls were rigged.  Guess they've accepted them now. 

 

The fact is, the polls were right then and they're right now.  The steady drip drip drip of Wikileaks, combined with the reopening of the FBI investigation, has focused the attention on Clinton.   And time after time, whichever candidate gets attention drops in the polls.   Because people hate both of them. 

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Totally off topic here, but has anyone else been noticing a total lack of election bumper stickers this go round? Is that just something that's happening here in Jax, or is it going on other places too?

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What in the Wide Wide World of Sports is agoin' on here???

Totally off topic here, but has anyone else been noticing a total lack of election bumper stickers this go round? Is that just something that's happening here in Jax, or is it going on other places too?

I think it is the same all over.  Not many people actually support either candidate.  They are holding their noses and voting for the lesser of two evils according to their political beliefs.

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Original Season Ticket Holder - Retired  1995 - 2020


At some point you just have to let go of what you thought should happen and live in what is happening.
 

I think it is the same all over.  Not many people actually support either candidate.  They are holding their noses and voting for the lesser of two evils according to their political beliefs.

Good point.

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What in the Wide Wide World of Sports is agoin' on here???

Totally off topic here, but has anyone else been noticing a total lack of election bumper stickers this go round? Is that just something that's happening here in Jax, or is it going on other places too?

 

Yes, I have, too.   People are not proud of either candidate. 

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Let's call this what it is: the election is over. Hillary won. This was established long ago. The CBS news showed live footage from a Trump rally tonight. The attendance was such that Whatshisface who's running with Hillary would have been disappointed. So why, shortly before election day, has the race "tightened up"?

 

My theory: the polls are being manipulated to draw votes away from third-party candidates. If the Libertarian Party in particular were to sneak away with 10% of the vote, or that Evan McMullin guy were to somehow win Utah, do you have any idea how much egg an already-torn establishment from both parties would have on its face?

 

So, yes, tinfoil hat time, I think that the inexplicable rise of Donald Trump in the polls is nothing more than a ploy to get voters out to the polls, and to make sure that there are no "unwanted" third-party success stories.

 

Agree? Disagree? Curious about what I'm drinking and want some? Discuss.

 

The libertarian party candidates sound like establishment shills.  That Weld guy said, “I’m here vouching for Mrs. Clinton, and I think it’s high time somebody did.”

“I’m doing it based on my personal experience with her, and I think that she deserves to have people vouch for her other than members of the Democratic National Committee,”

 

ya ok man.

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Yes, I have, too.   People are not proud of either candidate. 

 

Libertarians aren't happy with their candidate either

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