Win out and we're in.

 

If it was that easy this thread would not exist.

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I'm not saying this is wrong, but that's no reason to want Cincy to win their games. The problem arises if the Steelers keep winning as it's more realistic for them to fall out of contention.than the Bengals. But just in case the Steelers don't, there's that ever so slight chance that the Bengals plunge like the Jets currently seem to be doing. Why would actually want Cincy to win even their NFC games? Are you thinking that by winning more outright it might help to demoralize the Steelers into not trying as hard?

No. I'm just thinking that if the Steelers win the division,, that takes 1 of the Wildcard spots put of contention from the rest of the AFC due to Cincy surely getting one of those spots,, they're basically already a lock to get in the playoffs regardless if they win the AFCN or not.

Cincy is definitely going to have at least 9 wins (that's only giving them 1 win of the next 6).

They still play:

Rams

Browns

49ers

Ravens

They're going to win at least 1 of those, probably more.

Anyway,, they're a lock.


Right now,, there are 2 WC spots in play as the Steelers only sit at 6 wins. If Cincy ends up taking one of those spots,, there is only 1 WC seat left for 5,6 teams to compete for.


That's just the way I see it though.

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This part went straight over my head. You'll have to explain how this works. That is, how does our beat the chargers result in us losing the common oppenents tiebreaker to the Texans, and how does the Colts losing the Steelers cause them to win the common opponents tiebreaker? I would think it's the opposite if anything.

 

Well the schedules in the NFL are so uniform that within a division there are only two games that are different.  And to determine the record of common opponents, the easiest thing to do is back out the "uncommon" games.  Our two uncommon teams the Colts and Texans dont play are the Ravens and Chargers.  And if we beat the Chargers this weekend we'll be 2-0 in those games.  Lets say we finish the year tied with the Texans at 8-8; in common games we'll be 6-8 after you back out those two wins.  The Texans however are 1-1 in their two (L-Chiefs, W-Bengals), so they'd be 7-7 in common games and thus win the tiebreaker.  The Colts have a W against the Broncos and still have that tough road game at the Steelers, which I'm sure most of us think they'll lose, so they'd also be 1-1.  


It's a funny nuance of how the tiebreakers work.  Obviously at 4-6 we need to win every single game we can.  I just think to win the division, we'll need to be 9-7.  I think we only win a tiebreaker against the Colts or Texans if they not only lose enough games to finish tied with us, but if they to lose to very specific teams.  Although hopefully they both cave and finish at 6-10 or 7-9.

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Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

Well the schedules in the NFL are so uniform that within a division there are only two games that are different.  And to determine the record of common opponents, the easiest thing to do is back out the "uncommon" games.  Our two uncommon teams the Colts and Texans dont play are the Ravens and Chargers.  And if we beat the Chargers this weekend we'll be 2-0 in those games.  Lets say we finish the year tied with the Texans at 8-8; in common games we'll be 6-8 after you back out those two wins.  The Texans however are 1-1 in their two (L-Chiefs, W-Bengals), so they'd be 7-7 in common games and thus win the tiebreaker.  The Colts have a W against the Broncos and still have that tough road game at the Steelers, which I'm sure most of us think they'll lose, so they'd also be 1-1.  


It's a funny nuance of how the tiebreakers work.  Obviously at 4-6 we need to win every single game we can.  I just think to win the division, we'll need to be 9-7.  I think we only win a tiebreaker against the Colts or Texans if they not only lose enough games to finish tied with us, but if they to lose to very specific teams.  Although hopefully they both cave and finish at 6-10 or 7-9.

 

 

Ok, I got it... those are their uncommon games. You're saying if we're 8-8, these need to be the losses. I get that, but I prefer the option of winning out and not leaving it up to the 3rd tiebreaker.

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'02

If we go 8-8 and win the rest of our division games I'm 90% sure we're gonna win the division

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If we go 8-8 and win the rest of our division games I'm 90% sure we're gonna win the division

 

Need to go 9-7. 8-8 isn't likely to do it.

 

Indy and Houston play. They already have 5 wins each, so that's 6 for certain for the winner absent a tie. They both play Tennessee and they're both better than the Titans. Worse, they don't play them until the end, well after Tennessee is mathematically eliminated.

 

That's 7 wins for one of them - all but guaranteed. Indy would be at 5-0 in the division, Houston would be 4-1. In neither case could the Jags get either the head-to-head or division record tiebreak over them. The Jags can't get the common games tiebreak over Houston and will only get it over Indy if Indy beats the Steelers or the Jags lose to the Chargers. But either of those results - extra win for Indy or extra loss for Jax - is a dagger to the Jags' playoff chances. Conference record tiebreak is potentially bad for the Jags as well, since they've already got one extra AFC loss and fewer AFC games left to play. That drops it to strength of victory which Houston is very likely to hold thanks to Cincinnati and Indy is likely to hold thanks to Denver. 

 

So the bottom line is the Jags aren't likely going to win any tiebreak situation. If they want the division, they have to finish with a better record than both Houston and Indy. 8 wins isn't likely to do that. There's a pretty decent chance 9 won't be enough - about fifty/fifty. Winning out and getting to 10 would put the Jags in the drivers seat for sure, though Indy would still have a 10-15% chance to knock them out and Houston would have about a 2-3% shot. 

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If we go 8-8 and win the rest of our division games I'm 90% sure we're gonna win the division

 

We have three division games left, one against each team. Currently our record is 4-6. So we need to win one more game in addition to those three to avoid a losing record.

 

Because we already lost two division games (Colts and Texans), only the Titans game can be a sweep. So we need to hope both teams lose their division games to have a better AFCS record.

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I was told there would be no math.

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If something can corrupt you, you're corrupted already.
- Bob Marley


 

I was told there would be no math.

 

Who told you that?

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Who told you that?

 

The teller.

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If something can corrupt you, you're corrupted already.
- Bob Marley


 

Well the schedules in the NFL are so uniform that within a division there are only two games that are different.  And to determine the record of common opponents, the easiest thing to do is back out the "uncommon" games.  Our two uncommon teams the Colts and Texans dont play are the Ravens and Chargers.  And if we beat the Chargers this weekend we'll be 2-0 in those games.  Lets say we finish the year tied with the Texans at 8-8; in common games we'll be 6-8 after you back out those two wins.  The Texans however are 1-1 in their two (L-Chiefs, W-Bengals), so they'd be 7-7 in common games and thus win the tiebreaker.  The Colts have a W against the Broncos and still have that tough road game at the Steelers, which I'm sure most of us think they'll lose, so they'd also be 1-1.  


It's a funny nuance of how the tiebreakers work.  Obviously at 4-6 we need to win every single game we can.  I just think to win the division, we'll need to be 9-7.  I think we only win a tiebreaker against the Colts or Texans if they not only lose enough games to finish tied with us, but if they to lose to very specific teams.  Although hopefully they both cave and finish at 6-10 or 7-9.

 

You need to eliminate 2 more games to account for the fact that the teams don't get to play themselves.

 

The Jags currently are 3-3 against common opponents with the Colts, who are at 2-4, and are 2-4 against common opponents with the Texans, who are 3-3.

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You need to eliminate 2 more games to account for the fact that the teams don't get to play themselves.

 

The Jags currently are 3-3 against common opponents with the Colts, who are at 2-4, and are 2-4 against common opponents with the Texans, who are 3-3.

 

Right, common opponents is one of the playoff tiebreakers. But that comes after the conference record IIRC. So the CO thing comes into play because three of our remaining games are against the NFC South.

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You need to eliminate 2 more games to account for the fact that the teams don't get to play themselves.

 

The Jags currently are 3-3 against common opponents with the Colts, who are at 2-4, and are 2-4 against common opponents with the Texans, who are 3-3.

 

Well by definition if you've made it to tiebreak #3 you've already split games with the team you are in the tiebreak situation with.  In my example above with the Texans, we'd be 1-1 against them.  So instead of 6-8 against common opponents you could say we are 5-7 and instead of them being 7-7 they'd be 6-6.  No matter, we still lose.  If we beat the Chargers this weekend, we have officially lost tiebreak #3 to the Texans.  

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________________________________________________
Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

Well by definition if you've made it to tiebreak #3 you've already split games with the team you are in the tiebreak situation with.  In my example above with the Texans, we'd be 1-1 against them.  So instead of 6-8 against common opponents you could say we are 5-7 and instead of them being 7-7 they'd be 6-6.  No matter, we still lose.  If we beat the Chargers this weekend, we have officially lost tiebreak #3 to the Texans.  

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't conference record the third tiebreaker? Or is that only for tied teams in different divisions?

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Well by definition if you've made it to tiebreak #3 you've already split games with the team you are in the tiebreak situation with.  In my example above with the Texans, we'd be 1-1 against them.  So instead of 6-8 against common opponents you could say we are 5-7 and instead of them being 7-7 they'd be 6-6.  No matter, we still lose.  If we beat the Chargers this weekend, we have officially lost tiebreak #3 to the Texans.  

 

Ok, I got what you were going with now.  My apologies, didn't read it right the first time.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't conference record the third tiebreaker? Or is that only for tied teams in different divisions?

 

the rules change depending on whether it is a tiebreaker between teams in the same division or teams in different divisions.  In the division, common opponents is the 3rd tiebreak.  Conference record is the 4th.  For teams in different divisions, conference record is actually 2nd after head to head.

 

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

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________________________________________________
Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

the rules change depending on whether it is a tiebreaker between teams in the same division or teams in different divisions.  In the division, common opponents is the 3rd tiebreak.  Conference record is the 4th.  For teams in different divisions, conference record is actually 2nd after head to head.

 

That sounds weird. The tiebreaker rules were written before all four teams in each division had the same opponents for 14 of 16 games.

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Colts schedule...


 

Bucs - L


@ Steelers - L


@ Jaguars - L


Texans - W


@ Dolphins - L


Titans - W


 

7-9 record


 

 

Texans schedule


 

Saints - W


at Bills - L


Patriots - L


at Colts - L


at Titans - W


Jaguars - L


 

7-9 record


 

 

Jaguars schedule


 

Chargers - W


at Titans - W


Colts - W


Falcons - L


at Saints - L


at Texans - W


 

8-8 record wins division

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'02

Colts schedule...


 

Bucs - L


@ Steelers - L


@ Jaguars - L


Texans - W


@ Dolphins - L


Titans - W


 

7-9 record


 

Texans schedule

 

Saints - W


at Bills - L


Patriots - L


at Colts - L


at Titans - W


Jaguars - L


 

7-9 record


 

Jaguars schedule

 

Chargers - W


at Titans - W


Colts - W


Falcons - L


at Saints - L


at Texans - W


 

8-8 record wins division

 

Now let's look at the tiebreakers on these schedules. Fill me in if I am missing anything here.

 

Head to head: Colts sweep Texans

Head to head: Jaguars sweep Titans

Jaguars can't sweep Colts or Texans

 

Common opponents:

 

NFC South

 

Buccaneers (Jaguars lost and Titans won)

Saints (Next game for Texans)

Falcons (Colts won)

Panthers (Jaguars and Texans lost)

 

AFC East

 

Patriots (Jaguars and Colts lost)

Jets (Jaguars and Texans won)

Bills (Jaguars won and Colts lost)

Dolphins (Jaguars won)

 

AFC South

 

Colts (3-0)

Texans (2-1)

Jaguars (1-2)

Titans (0-3)

 

Using that information, can you figure out if we can win the division without a winning record?

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Now let's look at the tiebreakers on these schedules. Fill me in if I am missing anything here.

 

Head to head: Colts sweep Texans

Head to head: Jaguars sweep Titans

Jaguars can't sweep Colts or Texans

 

Common opponents:

 

NFC South

 

Buccaneers (Jaguars lost and Titans won)

Saints (Next game for Texans)

Falcons (Colts won)

Panthers (Jaguars and Texans lost)

 

AFC East

 

Patriots (Jaguars and Colts lost)

Jets (Jaguars and Texans won)

Bills (Jaguars won and Colts lost)

Dolphins (Jaguars won)

 

AFC South

 

Colts (3-0)

Texans (2-1)

Jaguars (1-2)

Titans (0-3)

 

Using that information, can you figure out if we can win the division without a winning record?

KISS, Hope the Jaguars win, hope Tennessee upsets Indy and Houston. You do not want to get into a tiebreaker deal with Indy(3-0 AFCS) if they have the same W/L record as you, because if they get to 7 or 8 they likely have a better division record than you, and possibly Houston having the same advantage themselves(2-1 AFCS) over the Jaguars(1-2 AFCS).  They simple way to look at it, if you tie with either of them, you are extremely likely miss the playoffs and finish behind them via tiebreakers.. This is why division games are so darn important. We are literally a FG away from 2-1 and being in an awesome spot to post a 5-1 division record. Just hope the division loses every week and Tennessee upsets the Colts and Texans. Its unlikely but one can dream right? Another way is to win out, obviously the hardest route but if we want playoffs generally those teams win down the stretch. We have the SOS to do it, lets hope we get hot at the right time. 

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