What's wrong with spread QBs? The NFL plays lots of spread stuff these days.

I'll paraphrase here, but im working off this article here. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/12722...on-mailbag

 

• They have an increased failure rate as compared to traditional QBs, as high as 70%. 
  
•  "I went through the list of the 140 drafted quarterbacks from 2004 to 2014 and determined there hasn't been a spread quarterback among them who currently would be labeled among the top 12 in the league. A few are close. Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith are former spread quarterbacks who aren't yet elite but could be knocking on the door."  Newton is a career 58% passer (53% Last year   ), Kaepernick needs no explanation, and Alex Smith has found a little success but only as a game manager. 
  
• "A college spread quarterback doesn't run a huddle."
  
• "The spread quarterbacks have to learn three-, five- and seven-step drops the minute their college careers are over."
  
• "The pure spread quarterbacks often have predetermined reads instead of going through and processing the play and the positioning of the pass-catchers.
  

​Not to say all spread QBs suck but it is another hurdle for them to overcome and by the looks of it, many of them do not work out. Blaine Gabbert/rg3 come to mind. I think Mariotta will probably work out though, I really like his game. 

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Calling Deshawn Watson a future bust since 3/19/17. If I eat crow, I will keep this in here and proclaim JackCity a genius. 

I'll paraphrase here, but im working off this article here. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/12722...on-mailbag

 

• They have an increased failure rate as compared to traditional QBs, as high as 70%. 
  
•  "I went through the list of the 140 drafted quarterbacks from 2004 to 2014 and determined there hasn't been a spread quarterback among them who currently would be labeled among the top 12 in the league. A few are close. Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith are former spread quarterbacks who aren't yet elite but could be knocking on the door."  Newton is a career 58% passer (53% Last year   ), Kaepernick needs no explanation, and Alex Smith has found a little success but only as a game manager. 
  
• "A college spread quarterback doesn't run a huddle."
  
• "The spread quarterbacks have to learn three-, five- and seven-step drops the minute their college careers are over."
  
• "The pure spread quarterbacks often have predetermined reads instead of going through and processing the play and the positioning of the pass-catchers.
  

​Not to say all spread QBs suck but it is another hurdle for them to overcome and by the looks of it, many of them do not work out. Blaine Gabbert/rg3 come to mind. I think Mariotta will probably work out though, I really like his game. 

Mariota is a rare scenario, extremely accurate and very good decision maker. Very good player.

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I'll paraphrase here, but im working off this article here. <a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/12722348/nfl-better-figure-how-use-college-spread-qbs-clayton-mailbag'>http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/12722348/nfl-better-figure-how-use-college-spread-qbs-clayton-mailbag</a>

• They have an increased failure rate as compared to traditional QBs, as high as 70%.
• "I went through the list of the 140 drafted quarterbacks from 2004 to 2014 and determined there hasn't been a spread quarterback among them who currently would be labeled among the top 12 in the league. A few are close. <a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/13994/cam-newton'>Cam Newton</a>,
  <a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/14001/colin-kaepernick'>Colin Kaepernick</a> and
  <a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/8416/alex-smith'>Alex Smith</a> are former spread quarterbacks who aren't yet elite but could be knocking on the door." Newton is a career 58% passer (53% Last year
  ), Kaepernick needs no explanation, and Alex Smith has found a little success but only as a game manager.
• "A college spread quarterback doesn't run a huddle."
• "The spread quarterbacks have to learn three-, five- and seven-step drops the minute their college careers are over."
• "The pure spread quarterbacks often have predetermined reads instead of going through and processing the play and the positioning of the pass-catchers.
  

​Not to say all spread QBs suck but it is another hurdle for them to overcome and by the looks of it, many of them do not work out. Blaine Gabbert/rg3 come to mind. I think Mariotta will probably work out though, I really like his game.

A few things...


Most QBs run a spread offense in college so its no surprise that the rate is that high.


Spread scheme doesn't mean they don't huddle.


The most important part is that spread QBs still have to go through reads and progressions just like pro style, they just differ in how they actually work. So a pro style QB might have to read where the deep safety is aligning and adjust from there, a spread QB might read where the MLB is lining up and adjust from that instead.


Derek Carr, Mariota, Dak Prescott , Kaep and Cam all come from spread schemes and have done excellent. NFL uses the spread a lot more these days so its not as big of transition anymore.

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Carr, Mariota, and Prescott look fine but it's too early too really tell. None of those 3 even have a playoff victory and we've seen flashes in the pan before, people seemed to think Kaepernick was something special for 2 seasons in 2012-13, now when he isn't an unclaimed free agent in a qb needy leagye, he's off getting benched for Gabbert. 

Newton is a tough one, I'll give him to you since he was MVP one year, but if you really look at his career stats, he has failed to develop as a passer. He has 2 winning seasons in 6, a career .500 qb, 58% completions and 53% last year. He's a good player because he has a physical talent, but he is far from even a good passer. 

 

Instead of going point by point here, i'd just suggest reading the article. I've explained that not every spread qb sucks, but there are reasons for why there is skepticism around drafting spread QBs. Apples to Apples, a conventional QB vs Spread QB, the spread QB has a higher rate being a bust, that has nothing to do with how many QBs run the spread, we're talking percentages. It is a hurdle to be overcome no matter how you slice it and if you want to buck the conventional wisdom that spread offense systems do not prepare you as well for the NFL, you're going to have to show more than a couple qbs with only a handful of seasons and no playoff victories under their belt. 

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Calling Deshawn Watson a future bust since 3/19/17. If I eat crow, I will keep this in here and proclaim JackCity a genius. 

Clocked at 49mph at the combine, dreadful. It's not the big arcing rainbows that show the arm strength, it's the tight windows, the seams, and the outs in the wind. If you don't buy the radar gun, fair enough, I think he's probably better than a 49 too but another spread qb, with a history of knee injuries, inconsistent footwork, and inconsistent accuracy... no way he is going at 4. Maybe a mid to late 1. 

 

Did you watch him throw at the combine?

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I hope we are able to trade one of Ivory or Yeldon.

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Shock the world

Did you watch him throw at the combine?

Yeah and I watched him the last few seasons too. I don't think he has a wet noodle for an arm cause sometimes he shows great zip on the ball but other times he under-throws terribly. He completes a beautiful pass up the seam then throws it clear over the WR head on a short slant route. Sometimes he looks like a #1 overall pick to me, sometimes he looks like a 3rd round project.  He's a tough one to grade. 

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Calling Deshawn Watson a future bust since 3/19/17. If I eat crow, I will keep this in here and proclaim JackCity a genius. 

Carr, Mariota, and Prescott look fine but it's too early too really tell. None of those 3 even have a playoff victory and we've seen flashes in the pan before, people seemed to think Kaepernick was something special for 2 seasons in 2012-13, now when he isn't an unclaimed free agent in a qb needy leagye, he's off getting benched for Gabbert.

Newton is a tough one, I'll give him to you since he was MVP one year, but if you really look at his career stats, he has failed to develop as a passer. He has 2 winning seasons in 6, a career .500 qb, 58% completions and 53% last year. He's a good player because he has a physical talent, but he is far from even a good passer.


Instead of going point by point here, i'd just suggest reading the article. I've explained that not every spread qb sucks, but there are reasons for why there is skepticism around drafting spread QBs. Apples to Apples, a conventional QB vs Spread QB, the spread QB has a higher rate being a bust, that has nothing to do with how many QBs run the spread, we're talking percentages. It is a hurdle to be overcome no matter how you slice it and if you want to buck the conventional wisdom that spread offense systems do not prepare you as well for the NFL, you're going to have to show more than a couple qbs with only a handful of seasons and no playoff victories under their belt.

The point is the adjustment really isn't that big of a gulf anymore. You can look at Carr, Mariota, Prescott and see they are perfectly capable of playing in an NFL offense, and that the offenses they run in the NFL even has a good bit of spread looks to help them out.


You see I'm not trying to say its isn't a hurdle to overcome. Just that its not as big of a hurdle as people think. The QBs I mentioned pretty much show the trend over the last while , of spread QBs being drafted and being able to make the jump. Can has had trash at receiver and at the line and still has had success.


The upcoming QBs in this class Watson, Trubisky and Mahomes play in spread of our air raid offenses and there have been claims that they don't read defenses or go through progressions, when in reality they do all of that, just like a conventional QB would.

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Yeah and I watched him the last few seasons too. I don't think he has a wet noodle for an arm cause sometimes he shows great zip on the ball but other times he under-throws terribly. He completes a beautiful pass up the seam then throws it clear over the WR head on a short slant route. Sometimes he looks like a #1 overall pick to me, sometimes he looks like a 3rd round project.  He's a tough one to grade. 

 

He's got plenty of arm to make the throws, even if he has some accuracy issues. The reason I asked if you watched him throw at the combine is to add some context.

 

He wasn't gunning it. In fact, if you compare it to say...Blake. Blake might throw a "harder" ball, but Watson was throwing it effortlessly. I don't want to say "going through the motions" because that wouldn't be fair and i'm sure he wasn't just doing that. I'm sure if these QBs knew they were going to "clock" their arm, they all would have put more zip on it. 

 

I don't think that was the focus of the drills, and it certainly didn't look that way for Watson.

 

He doesn't have the strongest arm, but he doesn't have a BB gun either. His arm is fine.

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Clocked at 49mph at the combine, dreadful. It's not the big arcing rainbows that show the arm strength, it's the tight windows, the seams, and the outs in the wind. If you don't buy the radar gun, fair enough, I think he's probably better than a 49 too but another spread qb, with a history of knee injuries, inconsistent footwork, and inconsistent accuracy... no way he is going at 4. Maybe a mid to late 1.

Gabbert threw lazers. Problem was. No one could catch um. Blake can't throw a deep spiral.


We have to win at some point.


If he over throws in general direction, but still catchable. AR15, hurns, and Lee can catch um.

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Bleeding Teal since 1995. The Icon Teal Time Radio aka ctjags

  #Gojags

He doesn't have the strongest arm, but he doesn't have a BB gun either. His arm is fine.

You saw my other thread about how much history he would have to be bucking to be fine right? The only two QBs in the past decade to "succeed" under 55 MPH are Dak and Tyrod, both of which threw with hurt shoulders at the combine...and many would barely call Tyrod a success.

 

He would basically be the first QB in the past decade to throw as soft as he did while presumably 100% to become a franchise QB. 

 

Not saying it's not possible, but that's the history he's fighting. 

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You saw my other thread about how much history he would have to be bucking to be fine right? The only two QBs in the past decade to "succeed" under 55 MPH are Dak and Tyrod, both of which threw with hurt shoulders at the combine...and many would barely call Tyrod a success.


He would basically be the first QB in the past decade to throw as soft as he did while presumably 100% to become a franchise QB.


Not saying it's not possible, but that's the history he's fighting.

Which throws were measured , what point of the release was measured , what point in the throw was measured, were all throwers measured at the same point at the same point?


Without knowing the process behind the numbers , they are pretty much irrelevant. If we had a drill that objectively tests how hard each prospect can throw the ball, then sure, we could pay the numbers some attention. At least with the 40 yard dash, vertical etc etc we know exactly how they are measured so can trust the data.


We only have data from 6 QB who are actually good. Its really doesn't show anything of note

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What the hell is this thread about?

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Which throws were measured , what point of the release was measured , what point in the throw was measured, were all throwers measured at the same point at the same point?


Without knowing the process behind the numbers , they are pretty much irrelevant. If we had a drill that objectively tests how hard each prospect can throw the ball, then sure, we could pay the numbers some attention. At least with the 40 yard dash, vertical etc etc we know exactly how they are measured so can trust the data.


We only have data from 6 QB who are actually good. Its really doesn't show anything of note

It's a standard set of data that they have been measuring qbs on for decades. It is what it is, we don't need to know every fine detail to see how he stacks up. The fan boys will find any reason to disregard the numbers but NFL teams have taken notice, i guarantee it. 

 

You can point to bad qbs with huge arms and good ones with squirt guns but that's just finding outliers against the trend. There is something to be said for QBs up around 60 mph, they almost all uniformly suck, the same as the guys throwing down around 50. That goldilocks zone is right in that 55-57 range. 

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Calling Deshawn Watson a future bust since 3/19/17. If I eat crow, I will keep this in here and proclaim JackCity a genius. 

Gabbert threw lazers. Problem was. No one could catch um. Blake can't throw a deep spiral.


We have to win at some point.


If he over throws in general direction, but still catchable. AR15, hurns, and Lee can catch um.

My God are you one of the worst posters here, and I truly mean that - if you say you are a Jags fan since the first day.

 

You try so hard to be a Skip Bayless, who also blows hot air through his mouth, but at least he is somewhat professional. 

 

Perhaps you should revisit everything you say that is Jaguars-related, before you actually post it my friend. 

 

It's posters like you that actually make me wish we had TMD back, because at least he provided some type of legible reasoning behind his thoughts. 

 

I'm done giving this topic any more time, but I feel like you should know how bad it has gotten.

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What the hell is this thread about?

I thought this was the Watson thread!

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It's a standard set of data that they have been measuring qbs on for decades. It is what it is, we don't need to know every fine detail to see how he stacks up. The fan boys will find any reason to disregard the numbers but NFL teams have taken notice, i guarantee it.

Where the data from before 2008? How is it all measured? Also show me where NFL teams talk about how important the velocity score at the combine is...

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Where the data from before 2008? How is it all measured? Also show me where NFL teams talk about how important the velocity score at the combine is...

Look you don't believe it, that's fine. The people in the know say teams take it very seriously. 

 

I also suspect you might believe it more if the QB in question for having the worst numbers didn't happen to also be the one you have been copping for the hardest.

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Look you don't believe it, that's fine. The people in the know say teams take it very seriously.


I also suspect you might believe it more if the QB in question for having the worst numbers didn't happen to also be the one you have been copping for the hardest.

Oh definitely agree. Just seems like there are a ton of questions about how the scores are even made in the first place. I don't see how you can blindly follow the numbers without even having any idea about how they are gotten, other than that they are measured with a radar gun at the combine.

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Where the data from before 2008? How is it all measured? Also show me where NFL teams talk about how important the velocity score at the combine is...

You think NFL teams are just going to look at these numbers and just ignore them given that it is such a strong indicator of future success? We've been talking about arm strength for decades, they have measured it for decades. It is important because time is distance, if that ball is going 10 mph slower over 20-30 yards thats quite a bit more time for the db to react and close the window and pick that ball. If you don't think NFL teams are talking about that score, I don't know what to tell you. They are likely to look at it in the context of his game film, I certainly do, but 49 is fricking alarmingly bad. 

 

I get the feeling that you wouldn't believe me if I said the sky is blue if that meant that Watson was anything less than stellar. 

 

Do we have any wonderlic results yet?

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Calling Deshawn Watson a future bust since 3/19/17. If I eat crow, I will keep this in here and proclaim JackCity a genius.