I don't see Detroit moving up from 2 to 1 for anybody. If anything. I could see them trying to trade that Rams pick [31 or 32 depending on this Sunday] to get even more picks in RD2 / RD3 + another future pick for any team looking to fill an imediate need on a play off bound roster on opening night.

If we take Hutchinson? They still have Thibodeaux who is just as good and promising or even Kyle Hamilton if they think he's the guy that can roam on the backend. The NFC North is an interesting division.

With Rodgers on his way out potentially and a new look coaching staff with the Vikings [still behind the 8 ball this off season] and Bears? Detroit could stand to make some quiet moves in this draft that end up making loud noise in the middle of the season.

I like Dan Campbell. I think they might end up winning 9 games in 2022.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I usually do a thread or two on this very topic every year.  I was planning to do one a little later, once the coaches were named and free agency went underway, but I've already been kicking some things around, so I might as well give it a shot now.

Generally, i don't think this is a strng year to trade down from the #1 overall spot, since there doesn't appear to be the can't miss QB prospect going into this draft.  None of the guys are as good as last April's class.  In fact, thinking about it more, I don't think any of these guys would seem to rate as favorably as the top two guys in the 2015 draft class (Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota).   I am hoping guys like Pickett and Willis have great offseasons and rocket up the draft boards between now and the draft to maximize the demand for our pick.  But I don't necessarily see that happening.  That said, let's examine the draft order, needs, draft capital, and possible trade up targets of the top dozen picks.

1.  Jacksonville

2.  Detroit, Needs QB, WR, Edge.  They have two first round picks this year#2 overall and the Rams (either 31 or 32 overall depending on the Super Bowl, and they will have two first rounders next year, their own and the Rams, due to the Matt Stafford trade.  However, since they have so much draft capital the next two years, since they are picking second if they do nothing, since they know we already took TL, and since there doesn't appear to be that stud QB at the top of the draft, the odds of them trading up one spot are virtually nil.

3.  Houston texans-Needs arguably QB, OL, WR, DL, LB, DB.  For the first time in a long time, the Texans currently have the standard allotment of picks because Bill O'Brien's disastrous trades finally exhausted themselves.  They could end up getting a boatload of picks if they can pull off a trade of Deshaun Watson, but depending on what happens with these sexual assault allegations, the big payoff might not come until 2023, if at all.  Since they are within the division, and since they are only two picks down, I don't see them trading with us, either.

4.  New York Jets-Needs:  WR, OL, TE, DB, Edge.  They have lots of draft capital, thanks to the Jamal Adams trade to Seattle, they have the #4 and #10 picks, and they have two 2nd round picks, #35 and #38.  Having drafted a QB #2 overall last spring, they have many of the same needs as we have.  Traditionally, they have been a team that trades up in the draft.  But I don't see them doing so at least at the top of this draft.  They may be more likely to trade back up into the bottom or even middle of the first round from the 2nd round.

5.  N.Y. Giants--Needs:  possibly QB, OL, Edge rusher.  Thanks to last year's trade down with Chicago for QB justin Fields, the Giants have lots of draft capital this year, with picks 5 and 7 in the first round.  If you are talking about teams possibly trading with the Jaguars for the top spot, here is where things start to get interesting.  It's rare that team owners are involved in blowing draft smoke, especially at this time of year, but they have a new coach and new GM.  When new coaches and new GMs come aboard, they usually want their guy at QB, which means despite Mara's representations, at this point, I think there's a decent shot they move on from Daniel Jones.  If a QB rises up the draft board into the top 5 status, they may need to move up over Detroit and maybe Houston to get that guy.  Besides QB, their other two positions of big need are OL (T specifically) and Edge rusher.  If you look at most draft boards/mock drafts at this stage, the guys at the top of these boards and drafts are T Evan Neal and edge rushers Thibideaux and Hutchinson.  It would make sense for them to stand pat and take an edge rusher like Karlaftsis (if they run a 4-3) and a T like the kid from NC State or Charles Cross, if they want a specific guy, this is about the spot where they may need to consider moving up to to get him.

6.  Carolina-Needs:  QB, OL.  Carolina Carlina's defense is pretty decently stocked.  They are pretty strong along the defensive line with a good DT in Derek Brown and good edge rushers.  Even if former Jaguar CJ Henderson continues to go AWOL, they are decent in the secondary at least for the moment, having gotten former Patriot Stephon Gilmore and S Jeremy Chinn.  What they lack is on offense.  Their owner is obsessed with getting a franchise signal caller.  If they don't acquire a vet like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson or DeShaun Watson, they will need to draft one.  It's possible a guy like Wison or Pickett would fit nicely in at 6, but the danger for Carolina is that QB is typically a high demand position, and if they are relying on the draft to get one early, they may have to move up ahead of Detroit, Houston, or NYG to get one.  Same holds true for LT.  The problem for Carolina is that thanks to disastrous trades for Sam Darnold and Henderson, they have no draft capital this year, with no picks in the 2nd or 3rd round.  That might keep them from making a trade for one of the other veteran QBs.  If anything, I could see them trying to move down to recoup some of that drsft capital.

8.  Atlanta-Needs:  QB, WR, Edge.  I think of the teams in the top ten, Atlanta represents one of the strongest possibilities for the Jaguars to trade back.  Atlanta finished dead last in sacks by a wide margin, not even reaching 20 sacks in 17 games.  The problem is there are three edge rushers in the top of this class (Thibs, Hutchinson and Karlaftsis), and all three could easily be gone by #8.  Compounding things for Atlanta is that Karlaftsis is more of a true 4-3 DE, while both Hutchinson and Thibs are more standup rushers that would better fit Atlanta's schemes.  This is a relatively deep class of edge rushers, and Altnata could gamble that they can get a guy later.  But edge rushers are typically in such high demand, they would be chancing not being able to adequately address that area considering they may even need to double up at edge rusher  Atlanta has two second round picks, plus they have a WR that is currently a question mark in Ridley that could be of help to TL.

9.  Denver-Needs QB, Edge Rusher.  I think this is another spot that could see the Jaguars successfully trade back from #1, but for various reasons.  Regarding the edge rushers, the analysis is similar to Atlanta's.  Since they traded Von Miller and Bradley Chubb has had injury issues, Denver could use an edge rusher, irrespective of whether Hackett keeps the 3-4 Denver is currently running or changes to a 4-3.  But like Atlanta, they are possibly picking too far down to land one of the big three edge rushers.  But more interesting is how QB affects the dynamic.  Denver also has a new Head coach, and he will likely want his own guy at QB since Bridgewater and Lock have proven not to be long term answers at the positionm so rookie analysis may apply to them, too.  However, they are reported to be one o the teams interested in trading for Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers.  If that trade goes through, as expected, Green bay could be the team occupying this spot.  If so, Green Bay could use a QB if they have soured on Love, or a T because of Bakhtiari's injury issues.  It's possible they could adequately address either position if they wound up at pick #9, but they are low enough to possibly miss out on their top guys if they stood pat.  Also, if they stay at 9, they would also address WR at that spot, since Davante Adams may want to depart if Rodgers leaves.

11.  Washington-Needs QB and T.  The Sk....errr....Commanders do not have a long term answer at QB.  Both heinecke and Fitzpatrick can be good placeholders, neither can take Washington where they want to go.  With their defense, it would make much more sense for them to go after one of the vets like Garoppolo, Wilson, etc. than to try to hope on a rookie QB to develop.

12.  Minnesota-Still in pretty good position at QB and T.  They need edge rushers though.  Will they play a 4-3 or a 3-4?  Either way, they will likely miss out on the top 3 edge rushers if they stay at 11.  While 11 might be an ideal spot for Jacksonville if they want to take a WR early, I'm not sure Minnesota would have the capital or inclination to move up that far, and I'm not sure Jacksonville would want to move that far back.

Hope this helps.

Bullseye, while there's a very realistic chance the Lions will address all 3 of these positions on the first 2 days of the 2022 Draft, at this time, I believe that Safety is the Lions most pronounced need. Tracy Walker is an UFA. Both parties appear to want to work out a new contract. Even if Walker is re-signed, the Lions need an upgrade at the other base Safety position. Will Harris has become a jack of all trades in the Lions Secondary. A team player. But Harris is probably better suited to provide depth and mix & match options in the Secondary than be a starter at a specific position. The rest of the Lions Safety options on the Lions current roster have at best more questions than answers.

If the Lions don't select an edge Defensive front 7 player with pick # 2, at present, Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton seems like the most likely other possibility( if the Lions keep the pick).

I defer to you on Detroit's hierarchy of needs.

That said, I would still think they'd go Hutchinson at 2.  Dan Campbell demonstrated last year a desire to build the trenches starting with the smart Penei Sewell pick and throughout the top part of the draft with Levi O and Alim McNeil in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  At this stage, I think they add the edge rusher to finish the first phase of upgrading the trenches.  If they wanted to upgrade S, Dax Hill is a helluva player who could be there at the bottom of round 1 if things go right.  Even if they hav to move up from 31-32 a few spots, he would be a worthy addition to their secondary.

I think if they handle this draft correctly, I agree with Caldrac that Detroit begins to turn the corner.  While they lacked talent, they were also the victims of bad luck.  A 66 yard FG to end the game?!?  If Aaron Rodgers is gone this off season, with the Bears possibly struggling to get the talented Justin Fields some support with no first round pick, needs along the OL and at WR, and a defensive minded coach switching to a 4-3, I could see Detroit winning more games this year.  I don't know if they make the playoffs, but I think the 2022 season ends with the sense the Lions' arrow is pointing up.

Question for you, D6.  Does Detroit's scheme require an in the box type of S?

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I don't see Detroit moving up from 2 to 1 for anybody. If anything. I could see them trying to trade that Rams pick [31 or 32 depending on this Sunday] to get even more picks in RD2 / RD3 + another future pick for any team looking to fill an imediate need on a play off bound roster on opening night.

If we take Hutchinson? They still have Thibodeaux who is just as good and promising or even Kyle Hamilton if they think he's the guy that can roam on the backend. The NFC North is an interesting division.

With Rodgers on his way out potentially and a new look coaching staff with the Vikings [still behind the 8 ball this off season] and Bears? Detroit could stand to make some quiet moves in this draft that end up making loud noise in the middle of the season.

I like Dan Campbell. I think they might end up winning 9 games in 2022.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

I don't see them moving up from 2, either, though as a Jaguars fan, if Detroit gave us their 2nd first rounder or their first 2nd rounder to swap places with us, I sure would not object to that.

The Pro Football Network draft simulator offers a Detroit trade with us that's a goldmine just on it's face, with both Lions's first rounders, their 2nd rounder, their 3rd, and sometimes even a pick nexst year to move up that one spot.  While I would salivate over that if it unfolded like that, it's not a realistic scenario to me, so I am less likely to accept that deal when I use that simulator.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

So since there are rumors of a Carolina/Pickett love fest, do you think we could bait the hook of swapping firsts and sending a late round pick their way for DJ Moore?

---

So since there are rumors of a Carolina/Pickett love fest, do you think we could bait the hook of swapping firsts and sending a late round pick their way for DJ Moore?

I think if they had the normal allotment of draft picks, the odds would be better.

But they have no second or 3rd round picks thanks to the Henderson and Darnold trades.  After 6, they won't pick again until the high 100s.

Trading away Moore for a rookie QB would hamstring the QB because they'd have no capital with which to restock the OL or to have any targets for him to throw.  They would effectively sacrifice his rookie year.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

So since there are rumors of a Carolina/Pickett love fest, do you think we could bait the hook of swapping firsts and sending a late round pick their way for DJ Moore?

You could probably swap picks with them and get a future pick and maybe a 4th RD pick. I don't see them trading away DJ Moore. Looks foolish on paper from a front office and coaching standpoint. 

"Hey. Let's swap 1's with Jacksonville to get our QB and then also give them our best WR that won't be here to help our new QB to sweeten the deal".



I don't like Carolina as a trading partner to be honest with you. You would be swapping 1's and then you're probably getting picks that won't help you until next year as they don't have any 2nd or 3rd RD picks this year.

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

The Saints trading for another 1st indicated pretty strongly that they are acquiring ammo to package those 1sts to move up for a QB.

I'd give #1 for 16, 19, and 49.

(Yes I know it won't happen)

---

The Saints trading for another 1st indicated pretty strongly that they are acquiring ammo to package those 1sts to move up for a QB.

I'd give #1 for 16, 19, and 49.

(Yes I know it won't happen)

Jameson Williams.
Karlaftis.
Mofe.
Guard

Those would be the first 4 picks for me.

---

The Saints trading for another 1st indicated pretty strongly that they are acquiring ammo to package those 1sts to move up for a QB.

I'd give #1 for 16, 19, and 49.

(Yes I know it won't happen)

Jameson Williams.
Karlaftis.
Mofe.
Guard

Those would be the first 4 picks for me.

I just made that trade on PFFs mock and got:

Jameson
Olave (Karl would be dope but was off the board and I love just fixing and forgetting WR)
Ebiketie (love Mafe too but he went at 30, which I think he'll do in real life too)
Troy Andersen

---

The Saints trading for another 1st indicated pretty strongly that they are acquiring ammo to package those 1sts to move up for a QB.

I'd give #1 for 16, 19, and 49.

(Yes I know it won't happen)

Agreed completely with this, but I've seen variou pundits speculate they want to go up to anywhere between 5 (just ahead of Carolina) and 2 to get a QB.

But that doesn't make much sense to me if they want a QB for a few reasons.

1.  I don't think any QB is worth the #1 overall pick.

2.  Detroit could arguably use a QB.

3.  Othre teams like Seattlle may want a QB and may be willing to move up beyond Detroit.  There is speculation they may trade Metcalf to the Jets for #10 overall.  Getting 9-10 would be enough to move up to 1. 

If it came to that, I'm not sure what would be more enticing to me, getting Metcalf in a trade back, or getting both the 9 and 10.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

The Saints trading for another 1st indicated pretty strongly that they are acquiring ammo to package those 1sts to move up for a QB.

I'd give #1 for 16, 19, and 49.

(Yes I know it won't happen)

Personally, I believe New Orleans is staying put and drafting a QB and a LT. I think either Malik Willis or Matt Corral will still be there for them at pick #16 or even #19 as long as Pittsburgh doesn't trade up. The only teams ahead of them I see as "shoe-ins" to take a QB, is Carolina and possibly Washington, but I think the Commanders fill another need after trading for Carson Wentz.

---

Jameson Williams.
Karlaftis.
Mofe.
Guard

Those would be the first 4 picks for me.

I just made that trade on PFFs mock and got:

Jameson
Olave (Karl would be dope but was off the board and I love just fixing and forgetting WR)
Ebiketie (love Mafe too but he went at 30, which I think he'll do in real life too)
Troy Andersen

That would be fantastic!

---

The Saints trading for another 1st indicated pretty strongly that they are acquiring ammo to package those 1sts to move up for a QB.

I'd give #1 for 16, 19, and 49.

(Yes I know it won't happen)

Personally, I believe New Orleans is staying put and drafting a QB and a LT. I think either Malik Willis or Matt Corral will still be there for them at pick #16 or even #19 as long as Pittsburgh doesn't trade up. The only teams ahead of them I see as "shoe-ins" to take a QB, is Carolina and possibly Washington, but I think the Commanders fill another need after trading for Carson Wentz.

---

I just made that trade on PFFs mock and got:

Jameson
Olave (Karl would be dope but was off the board and I love just fixing and forgetting WR)
Ebiketie (love Mafe too but he went at 30, which I think he'll do in real life too)
Troy Andersen

That would be fantastic!

I heard speculation on ESPN about the Saints making that trade to get ahead of the Chargers to take a T.  I don't buy that.  They only moved a spot ahead of the chargers, and there's still almost a full month to go until the draft.   If that's the purpose, the Saints could have tipped their hands.  That's way too much time for the Chargers to make a counter move up. That reminds me of 1997 when the Raiders traded up to 2 in the jopes of getting Orlando pace, but did it too soon, and the Rams wound up trading up to 1 to get Pace.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

The Saints trading for another 1st indicated pretty strongly that they are acquiring ammo to package those 1sts to move up for a QB.

I'd give #1 for 16, 19, and 49.

(Yes I know it won't happen)

Personally, I believe New Orleans is staying put and drafting a QB and a LT. I think either Malik Willis or Matt Corral will still be there for them at pick #16 or even #19 as long as Pittsburgh doesn't trade up. The only teams ahead of them I see as "shoe-ins" to take a QB, is Carolina and possibly Washington, but I think the Commanders fill another need after trading for Carson Wentz.

....why do that deal now, though, not knowing whether either of those QB especially will be where they are right now? I suspect they've spoken with some other team in the top ten about moving up and the price tag was at least two mid-firsts, so they have their picks in hand to get a deal done should nobody else bet the farm on someone like Willis.

---

Personally, I believe New Orleans is staying put and drafting a QB and a LT. I think either Malik Willis or Matt Corral will still be there for them at pick #16 or even #19 as long as Pittsburgh doesn't trade up. The only teams ahead of them I see as "shoe-ins" to take a QB, is Carolina and possibly Washington, but I think the Commanders fill another need after trading for Carson Wentz.

---

That would be fantastic!

I heard speculation on ESPN about the Saints making that trade to get ahead of the Chargers to take a T.  I don't buy that.  They only moved a spot ahead of the chargers, and there's still almost a full month to go until the draft.   If that's the purpose, the Saints could have tipped their hands.  That's way too much time for the Chargers to make a counter move up. That reminds me of 1997 when the Raiders traded up to 2 in the jopes of getting Orlando pace, but did it too soon, and the Rams wound up trading up to 1 to get Pace.

I still think the Chargers select NT Jordan Davis. Their run defense was atrocious last season and Davis just makes too much sense. They have their franchise LT and RT's can be found later in the later rounds. I would be shocked if they took an OT in round 1, but I'm sure plenty of things will shock me in this draft.

---

Personally, I believe New Orleans is staying put and drafting a QB and a LT. I think either Malik Willis or Matt Corral will still be there for them at pick #16 or even #19 as long as Pittsburgh doesn't trade up. The only teams ahead of them I see as "shoe-ins" to take a QB, is Carolina and possibly Washington, but I think the Commanders fill another need after trading for Carson Wentz.

....why do that deal now, though, not knowing whether either of those QB especially will be where they are right now? I suspect they've spoken with some other team in the top ten about moving up and the price tag was at least two mid-firsts, so they have their picks in hand to get a deal done should nobody else bet the farm on someone like Willis.

I really don't know. I just can't wrap my mind around anyone wanting to trade up for any of these QB's.

---

I think we can go ahead and forget about trading for DK.

https://twitter.com/AudacySports/status/...5738419201

---

I think we can go ahead and forget about trading for DK.

https://twitter.com/AudacySports/status/...5738419201

Sounds like they must want to keep him then. I had no faith in Baalke to make that move anyway. I think he's gonna sit on his hands and reach for a WR at pick #33. Then he's gonna wonder why Trevor Lawrence didn't make a big leap in year 2.

---

Hypothetically, IF the Jags actually want to draft someone other than Hutchinson, and IF no one else knows this, don't you think the Jags would drop from #1 to #2 for very little in return?  If they're going to draft Neal anyway, for example, and they know they can either have (a) Neal at #1, or (b) Neal at #2 plus anything at all, don't you think they would take (b)? 

That's what I think a lot of people don't seem to understand.  Sure, they aren't going to get a blockbuster deal for the #1 overall pick.  But maybe they don't need a blockbuster deal for the #1 overall pick.

What if the Jags couldn't decide between Walker and Hutchinson?  Wouldn't they be willing to trade the #1 for #2 plus a 4th rounder, for example?  If the Jags don't have any value differential between the #1 and the #2 pick, then #2 plus a 4th rounder is worth more to them than the #1 overall pick.  Right?  

This stuff I hear on the radio about "Oh, no one is going to offer a blockbuster deal, so the Jags won't be trading the pick," is nonsense.  They don't need a blockbuster deal, because the #1 overall pick just isn't worth that much more than any other pick in the top, say 4 or 5 picks.

---

Hypothetically, IF the Jags actually want to draft someone other than Hutchinson, and IF no one else knows this, don't you think the Jags would drop from #1 to #2 for very little in return?  If they're going to draft Neal anyway, for example, and they know they can either have (a) Neal at #1, or (b) Neal at #2 plus anything at all, don't you think they would take (b)? 

That's what I think a lot of people don't seem to understand.  Sure, they aren't going to get a blockbuster deal for the #1 overall pick.  But maybe they don't need a blockbuster deal for the #1 overall pick.

What if the Jags couldn't decide between Walker and Hutchinson?  Wouldn't they be willing to trade the #1 for #2 plus a 4th rounder, for example?  If the Jags don't have any value differential between the #1 and the #2 pick, then #2 plus a 4th rounder is worth more to them than the #1 overall pick.  Right?  

This stuff I hear on the radio about "Oh, no one is going to offer a blockbuster deal, so the Jags won't be trading the pick," is nonsense.  They don't need a blockbuster deal, because the #1 overall pick just isn't worth that much more than any other pick in the top, say 4 or 5 picks.

Just shoot me. We'd never get this ship turned around under that scenario. Neal isn't even the best OT in this draft.

If the Jags can't decide between Hutchinson and Walker then they are blind. Hutchinson was a great college player who put up fantastic stats, he had a terrific Combine and he has played as a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 DE, so he fits our system. Walker put up way lesser stats, he had a terrific Combine as well, but he was a 3-4 DE in college and would have to learn to play an entirely new position. To me this is extremely clear cut. Hutchinson is without a doubt, the better prospect for this team. 

Hutchinson is clearly the #1 prospect in this draft, so if this team has any chance what so ever at ever being good in the future, they need to either draft him or hold out for a good trade where we can draft a #1 receiver and get something else big in return.

---

Hypothetically, IF the Jags actually want to draft someone other than Hutchinson, and IF no one else knows this, don't you think the Jags would drop from #1 to #2 for very little in return?  If they're going to draft Neal anyway, for example, and they know they can either have (a) Neal at #1, or (b) Neal at #2 plus anything at all, don't you think they would take (b)? 

That's what I think a lot of people don't seem to understand.  Sure, they aren't going to get a blockbuster deal for the #1 overall pick.  But maybe they don't need a blockbuster deal for the #1 overall pick.

What if the Jags couldn't decide between Walker and Hutchinson?  Wouldn't they be willing to trade the #1 for #2 plus a 4th rounder, for example?  If the Jags don't have any value differential between the #1 and the #2 pick, then #2 plus a 4th rounder is worth more to them than the #1 overall pick.  Right?  

This stuff I hear on the radio about "Oh, no one is going to offer a blockbuster deal, so the Jags won't be trading the pick," is nonsense.  They don't need a blockbuster deal, because the #1 overall pick just isn't worth that much more than any other pick in the top, say 4 or 5 picks.

Just shoot me. We'd never get this ship turned around under that scenario. Neal isn't even the best OT in this draft.

If the Jags can't decide between Hutchinson and Walker then they are blind. Hutchinson was a great college player who put up fantastic stats, he had a terrific Combine and he has played as a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 DE, so he fits our system. Walker put up way lesser stats, he had a terrific Combine as well, but he was a 3-4 DE in college and would have to learn to play an entirely new position. To me this is extremely clear cut. Hutchinson is without a doubt, the better prospect for this team. 

Hutchinson is clearly the #1 prospect in this draft, so if this team has any chance what so ever at ever being good in the future, they need to either draft him or hold out for a good trade where we can draft a #1 receiver and get something else big in return.

I wasn't asking you who is the best player, or whom the Jags should draft.  I was asking, IF the Jags don't see much difference between the #1 and the #2 picks, then wouldn't they be willing to make a deal for very little in return?  It's a hypothetical.  

I know you're very opinionated about this stuff, but take yourself out of it for a second.  Put yourself in the shoes of a GM who sees very little difference in value between the best player in the draft or the second best player in the draft.  If that were the case, why would they demand some blockbuster trade to drop one spot?   

So to answer the question, what would it take for the Jags to drop one spot in the draft, you have to know how they value whoever they think are the top 2 players that they want.  It may not require a blockbuster deal for the Jags to trade out of that spot.  It might require very little.

---

Hypothetically, IF the Jags actually want to draft someone other than Hutchinson, and IF no one else knows this, don't you think the Jags would drop from #1 to #2 for very little in return?  If they're going to draft Neal anyway, for example, and they know they can either have (a) Neal at #1, or (b) Neal at #2 plus anything at all, don't you think they would take (b)? 

That's what I think a lot of people don't seem to understand.  Sure, they aren't going to get a blockbuster deal for the #1 overall pick.  But maybe they don't need a blockbuster deal for the #1 overall pick.

What if the Jags couldn't decide between Walker and Hutchinson?  Wouldn't they be willing to trade the #1 for #2 plus a 4th rounder, for example?  If the Jags don't have any value differential between the #1 and the #2 pick, then #2 plus a 4th rounder is worth more to them than the #1 overall pick.  Right?  

This stuff I hear on the radio about "Oh, no one is going to offer a blockbuster deal, so the Jags won't be trading the pick," is nonsense.  They don't need a blockbuster deal, because the #1 overall pick just isn't worth that much more than any other pick in the top, say 4 or 5 picks.

The only way I see them doing that is if they have planned out what to do with that extra pick(s). Either there's someone they believe will be there in the fourth, or they have a rough idea of someone willing to trade a slightly higher pick for a few later picks, including that extra. I don't think you do the deal just to say you did a deal.

---