What that means is they need to take the highest player on their board that is available

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I know exactly what it means when used on the board.

I also know when a team misses, it's always attributed to being a needs pick whether it's a need pick or not.

You can still take BAP and miss but that would fall on your player evaluations.   If you keep taking the top player on your board and still miss then you will be fired in short order anyway and we have the wrong guy. When we drafted Joeckel, that's example of taking the top player on your board and still missing, we had Monroe at the time so we didn't need a LT. I'm good with that, your percentage of missing is much lower your player evaluations are right. You have to trust your player evaluations and rankings, if you dont trust that then what are you doing?

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I know exactly what it means when used on the board.

I also know when a team misses, it's always attributed to being a needs pick whether it's a need pick or not.

You can still take BAP and miss but that would fall on your player evaluations.   If you keep taking the top player on your board and still miss then you will be fired in short order anyway and we have the wrong guy.  When we drafted Joeckel, that's example of taking the top player on your board and still missing, we had Monroe at the time so we didn't need a LT.  I'm good with that, your percentage of missing is much lower your player evaluations are right.  You have to trust your player evaluations and rankings, if you dont trust that then what are you doing?

BAP Vs Needs drafting is such a tired take. It doesn’t matter how you do it if your evaluations are crap.

I highly doubt teams are even making big boards anymore considering it’s such an old school style of thought.

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You can still take BAP and miss but that would fall on your player evaluations.   If you keep taking the top player on your board and still miss then you will be fired in short order anyway and we have the wrong guy.  When we drafted Joeckel, that's example of taking the top player on your board and still missing, we had Monroe at the time so we didn't need a LT.  I'm good with that, your percentage of missing is much lower your player evaluations are right.  You have to trust your player evaluations and rankings, if you dont trust that then what are you doing?

BAP Vs Needs drafting is such a tired take. It doesn’t matter how you do it if your evaluations are crap.

I highly doubt teams are even making big boards anymore considering it’s such an old school style of thought.

You highly doubt teams are even making big boards anymore?  Lol

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BAP Vs Needs drafting is such a tired take. It doesn’t matter how you do it if your evaluations are crap.

I highly doubt teams are even making big boards anymore considering it’s such an old school style of thought.

You highly doubt teams are even making big boards anymore?  Lol

I don't doubt teams make modified big boards.

Instead of comprehensive boards of every draft eligible player, I believe some teams have a smaller board of players that best fit their schemes.  Maybe instead of doing a 300 player board, some teams will do a board of about 180. 

Or perhaps in addition to that 300 player board.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I know exactly what it means when used on the board.

I also know when a team misses, it's always attributed to being a needs pick whether it's a need pick or not.

You can still take BAP and miss but that would fall on your player evaluations.   If you keep taking the top player on your board and still miss then you will be fired in short order anyway and we have the wrong guy.  When we drafted Joeckel, that's example of taking the top player on your board and still missing, we had Monroe at the time so we didn't need a LT.  I'm good with that, your percentage of missing is much lower your player evaluations are right.  You have to trust your player evaluations and rankings, if you dont trust that then what are you doing?

Right, if you don't trust your own evaluations then you might as well just get rid of the scout team and have a computer program always pick whatever player is currently left at the top of some TV draftnic's board.

We saw years of what needs based drafting does to a team back in the mid 2000s when the Jaguars went from a team with a shot at going to Superbowls and having strong games against Tom Brady to a team that had about ten years of .500 or lower records.

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We saw years of what needs based drafting does to a team back in the mid 2000s when the Jaguars went from a team with a shot at going to Superbowls and having strong games against Tom Brady to a team that had about ten years of .500 or lower records.

What were the obvious needs pick and not just poorly ranked picks back then?

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With pick 25 I am taking the BAF.

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What that means is they need to take the highest player on their board that is available

---

I know exactly what it means when used on the board.

I also know when a team misses, it's always attributed to being a needs pick whether it's a need pick or not.

Bingo!  Every time the team mis-evaluates a player, he goes down in history as a "need pick" and every time the Jaguars hit, he goes down as "BAP" in some people's world.  They often forget that many of our good players were considered "needs" and "reaches" at the time and we have plenty of guys who were called "BAP" on draft day who turned into busts.  Just because Mel Kiper has a player ranked a certain way, it doesn't mean the Jaguars do.  No team purposely takes busts.

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We saw years of what needs based drafting does to a team back in the mid 2000s when the Jaguars went from a team with a shot at going to Superbowls and having strong games against Tom Brady to a team that had about ten years of .500 or lower records.

What were the obvious needs pick and not just poorly ranked picks back then?

Another Bingo!  Many people assume that because Mel Kiper has the players ranked in some type of order that NFL teams must have the same rankings.  Need versus BAP isn't determined by Mel Kiper.  It's determined by the team's board.  The problem is teams rarely to never share their board.  As such, we never know whether it was need or BAP.  In reality, I suspect it's usually a combination.  I am a big believer in "tiers".  Outside of the top of the first round, there's not some huge drop-off from player to player.  Draft picks are educated guesses and in most cases, there are probably 5 to 10 players (or maybe more) rated roughly equal.  The team takes one of those players who also happens to fit a need. It's both value and need.

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Lets also just remember that just as a guy was drafted top 5, he still needs competant coaching to reach that potential.

Another thing we haven't had

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We saw years of what needs based drafting does to a team back in the mid 2000s when the Jaguars went from a team with a shot at going to Superbowls and having strong games against Tom Brady to a team that had about ten years of .500 or lower records.

What were the obvious needs pick and not just poorly ranked picks back then?

The two that really stick out in my memories are Reggie Williams and Harvey.

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What were the obvious needs pick and not just poorly ranked picks back then?

Another Bingo!  Many people assume that because Mel Kiper has the players ranked in some type of order that NFL teams must have the same rankings.  Need versus BAP isn't determined by Mel Kiper.  It's determined by the team's board.  The problem is teams rarely to never share their board.  As such, we never know whether it was need or BAP.  In reality, I suspect it's usually a combination.  I am a big believer in "tiers".  Outside of the top of the first round, there's not some huge drop-off from player to player.  Draft picks are educated guesses and in most cases, there are probably 5 to 10 players (or maybe more) rated roughly equal.  The team takes one of those players who also happens to fit a need.  It's both value and need.

I haven't seen 1 person bring up Mel Kiper on this board except you lol.  Also doesn't surprise me the same guy thinks you should needs draft instead of take the best player

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What were the obvious needs pick and not just poorly ranked picks back then?

The two that really stick out in my memories are Reggie Williams and Harvey.

Bortles?  Nobody on this planet thought Bortles was better than Mack but since it was a more important position and such a huge need let's take the QB

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With pick 25 I am taking the BAF.

Was this a typo or is there something I am missing?

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Lets also just remember that just as a guy was drafted top 5, he still needs competant coaching to reach that potential.

Another thing we haven't had

Absolutely.  Rookies need development, even if they are top 5.

In TL's case, he will need good coaching AND a strong supporting cast.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I know exactly what it means when used on the board.

I also know when a team misses, it's always attributed to being a needs pick whether it's a need pick or not.

Bingo!  Every time the team mis-evaluates a player, he goes down in history as a "need pick" and every time the Jaguars hit, he goes down as "BAP" in some people's world.  They often forget that many of our good players were considered "needs" and "reaches" at the time and we have plenty of guys who were called "BAP" on draft day who turned into busts.  Just because Mel Kiper has a player ranked a certain way, it doesn't mean the Jaguars do.  No team purposely takes busts.

With this in mind, I wonder what kind of drafter people categorize all of our GMs.

TC?  You could argue he hit on more first rounders than any of our other GMs:

1995-Boselli, Stewart
1996-Hardy
1997-Wynn
1998-Taylor, Darius
1999-Bryant
2000-Soward
2001-Stroud
2002-Henderson

Pretty good list, right?  But what of his second round picks?
1995-DeMarco, Schwartz
1996-Brackens
1997-Logan
1998-C. Taylor
1999-L. Smith
2000-Meester
2001-M. Williams
2002-Mike Pearson

So if TC were a BAP drafter, why were there so many misses in the second round?  If he were a needs picker, why so many hits in the first round?

Shack Harris?  His first round picks...

2003-Leftwich
2004-Reggie Williams
2005-Matt Jones
2006-Marcedes Lewis
2007-Reggie Nelson
2008-Derrick Harvey

His second rounders?

2003-Rashean Mathis
2004-Greg Jones and Darryl Smith
2005-Khalif Barnes
2006-Maurice Jones Drew
2007-Justin Durant
2008-Quentin Groves

Here, the dynamic is the opposite of TC:  lots of misses in the first round, way more hits in the second round.  Was he a needs drafter or BAP? Those who subscribe to BAP as an overarching draft philosophy argue that if the targeted player does not meet the value of the pick, you trade down.  That's exactly what he did with Reggie Nelson.  Did he switch philosophy from the first and second rounds?  Now I remember speculation that Gene Smith used to make the picks after the first round.  Fine.  Let's look at Gene Smith's picks:

1st round:
2009-Eugene Monroe-9th overall
2010-Tyson Alualu-10th overall
2011-Blaine Gabbert-10th overall
2012-Justin Blackmon-5th overall

2nd round:
2009-Eben Britton
2010-N/A-pick traded in 2009 for CB Derek Cox
2011-N/A-Don't remember what happened with this pick
2012-Andre Branch

He used to say he was a BAP drafter, and people on this board believed him.  "In Gene We Trust..." right?  The above lists were an unmitigated disaster.  According to those who adhere to BAP philosophy, the above shouldn't happen.  Not even close.  Yet he routinely allowed superior talent to go to lower picking teams.  Note:  the lists below are in no way all inclusive

2009

• Clay Matthews to Green Bay (yes I remember those debates)
  
• BJ Raji to Green Bay
  
• Brian Orakpo to Washington
  
• Malcolm Jenkins to the Saints
  
• Alex Mack to Cleveland
  

2010

• Earl Thomas to Seattle i4th overall
  
• Jason Pierre Paul to the Giants-15th overall
  
• Mike Iupati to the 49ers-17th overall
  
• Maurkice Pouncey to the Steelers -18th overall
  

2011

• J.J. Watt to Houston-11th overall
  
• Robert Quinn to the Rams-14th overall
  
• Mike Pouncey to the Dolphins-15th overall
  
• Ryan Kerrigan to Washington-16th overall
  
• Nate Solder to NE 17th overall
  

2012

• Bryan freaking Anger-A PUNTER-over Russell freaking Wilson
  

Now for Dave Caldwell

First rounders

2013- Luke Joeckel
2014-Blake Bortles
2015-Dante Fowler
2016-Jalen Ramsey
2017-Leonard Fournette*
2018-Taven Bryan*
2019-Josh Allen*
2020-C.J. Henderson, K'Lavon Chaisson

2nd rounders
2013-Jon Cyprien
2014-Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson
2015-Tj Yelson
2016-Myles Jack
2017-Cam Robinson*
2018-DJ Chark*
2019-Jawaan Taylor*
2020-Laviska Shenault

*  Denotes picks that may have been made by TC upon his return to the franchise.  Feel free to include them under his category if you like

With Caldwell, his picks most closely resembles Shack Harris':  Lots of misses in the first round, more hits in the second.

Undoubtedly you have noticed I did NOT compile a list of players taken after our picks with any of the other GMs except for Gene Smith.  Why?  Two reasons.  First the very nature of the draft shows that teams are going to pick good players after your pick.  That part is inevitable.  Two, and most importantly, Gene Smith got ZERO IMPACT from his picks, on the whole.  TC hit hugely on a good number of his first round picks.  Shack got a Pro Bowl season out of Marcedes Lewis (who is still playing) and Nelson developed into a Pro Bowler with Cincy after JDR lost faith in him.  Plus, Shack had a slew of outstanding picks in the second round where Smith got none.  Finally, Caldwell at least hit big on Ramsey in the first and with Robinson, and Jack in the second.

So which GMs were needs pickers and which GMs were BAP?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Since we are talking BAP vs. needs draft philosophy, what would you recommend the Jaguars do if CB Caleb Farley is on the board for us at 25?

Now most of the off season, most of the draft experts have had him in the top half of the first round, with many mocks having him as a top ten pick and the first defensive player to come off the board. Now after last year's drafting of CJ Henderson at 9 overall, and this year's free agent signing of Griffin, you can argue that CB is NOT a pressing need for us.

However, the news that he has had back surgery and was unable to fully participate in his Pro Day has sent his stock plummeting. While some still project him as going in the upper half of the draft, others have him falling.

So would you take him if he's on the board at 25 based on your perception of his value? Why or why not?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

With pick 25 I am taking the BAF.

Was this a typo or is there something I am missing?

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Lets also just remember that just as a guy was drafted top 5, he still needs competant coaching to reach that potential.

Another thing we haven't had

Absolutely.  Rookies need development, even if they are top 5.

In TL's case, he will need good coaching AND a strong supporting cast.

BAF= Best Available Freak
It goes back from the days of Ask Vic and Matt Jones.

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Was this a typo or is there something I am missing?

---

Absolutely.  Rookies need development, even if they are top 5.

In TL's case, he will need good coaching AND a strong supporting cast.

BAF= Best Available Freak
It goes back from the days of Ask Vic and Matt Jones.

How did I miss that?!?

I have "Planet theory," "Jars on the Shelf," and "There are no bargains in free agency" stuck in my head.  Why not this?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Throwing a small spanner in the discussion, The argument for BAP vs Needs could go on for ages. I think you will find that it’s never purely one or the other but a trade off dependant on the style of the GM. But to say any GM adopts only BAP or Need based drafting is silly and would be horrendous and not very clever business.

In short you want the best players on your team but your also looking to build a balanced Roster.

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Throwing a small spanner in the discussion, The argument for BAP vs Needs could go on for ages. I think you will find that it’s never purely one or the other but a trade off dependant on the style of the GM. But to say any GM adopts only BAP or Need based drafting is silly and would be horrendous and not very clever business.

In short you want the best players on your team but your also looking to build a balanced Roster.

Precisely!

Thank you.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Bingo!  Every time the team mis-evaluates a player, he goes down in history as a "need pick" and every time the Jaguars hit, he goes down as "BAP" in some people's world.  They often forget that many of our good players were considered "needs" and "reaches" at the time and we have plenty of guys who were called "BAP" on draft day who turned into busts.  Just because Mel Kiper has a player ranked a certain way, it doesn't mean the Jaguars do.  No team purposely takes busts.

With this in mind, I wonder what kind of drafter people categorize all of our GMs.

TC?  You could argue he hit on more first rounders than any of our other GMs:

1995-Boselli, Stewart
1996-Hardy
1997-Wynn
1998-Taylor, Darius
1999-Bryant
2000-Soward
2001-Stroud
2002-Henderson

Pretty good list, right?  But what of his second round picks?
1995-DeMarco, Schwartz
1996-Brackens
1997-Logan
1998-C. Taylor
1999-L. Smith
2000-Meester
2001-M. Williams
2002-Mike Pearson

So if TC were a BAP drafter, why were there so many misses in the second round?  If he were a needs picker, why so many hits in the first round?

Shack Harris?  His first round picks...

2003-Leftwich
2004-Reggie Williams
2005-Matt Jones
2006-Marcedes Lewis
2007-Reggie Nelson
2008-Derrick Harvey

His second rounders?

2003-Rashean Mathis
2004-Greg Jones and Darryl Smith
2005-Khalif Barnes
2006-Maurice Jones Drew
2007-Justin Durant
2008-Quentin Groves

Here, the dynamic is the opposite of TC:  lots of misses in the first round, way more hits in the second round.  Was he a needs drafter or BAP? Those who subscribe to BAP as an overarching draft philosophy argue that if the targeted player does not meet the value of the pick, you trade down.  That's exactly what he did with Reggie Nelson.  Did he switch philosophy from the first and second rounds?  Now I remember speculation that Gene Smith used to make the picks after the first round.  Fine.  Let's look at Gene Smith's picks:

1st round:
2009-Eugene Monroe-9th overall
2010-Tyson Alualu-10th overall
2011-Blaine Gabbert-10th overall
2012-Justin Blackmon-5th overall

2nd round:
2009-Eben Britton
2010-N/A-pick traded in 2009 for CB Derek Cox
2011-N/A-Don't remember what happened with this pick
2012-Andre Branch

He used to say he was a BAP drafter, and people on this board believed him.  "In Gene We Trust..." right?  The above lists were an unmitigated disaster.  According to those who adhere to BAP philosophy, the above shouldn't happen.  Not even close.  Yet he routinely allowed superior talent to go to lower picking teams.  Note:  the lists below are in no way all inclusive

2009

• Clay Matthews to Green Bay (yes I remember those debates)
  
• BJ Raji to Green Bay
  
• Brian Orakpo to Washington
  
• Malcolm Jenkins to the Saints
  
• Alex Mack to Cleveland
  

2010

• Earl Thomas to Seattle i4th overall
  
• Jason Pierre Paul to the Giants-15th overall
  
• Mike Iupati to the 49ers-17th overall
  
• Maurkice Pouncey to the Steelers -18th overall
  

2011

• J.J. Watt to Houston-11th overall
  
• Robert Quinn to the Rams-14th overall
  
• Mike Pouncey to the Dolphins-15th overall
  
• Ryan Kerrigan to Washington-16th overall
  
• Nate Solder to NE 17th overall
  

2012

• Bryan freaking Anger-A PUNTER-over Russell freaking Wilson
  

Now for Dave Caldwell

First rounders

2013- Luke Joeckel
2014-Blake Bortles
2015-Dante Fowler
2016-Jalen Ramsey
2017-Leonard Fournette*
2018-Taven Bryan*
2019-Josh Allen*
2020-C.J. Henderson, K'Lavon Chaisson

2nd rounders
2013-Jon Cyprien
2014-Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson
2015-Tj Yelson
2016-Myles Jack
2017-Cam Robinson*
2018-DJ Chark*
2019-Jawaan Taylor*
2020-Laviska Shenault

*  Denotes picks that may have been made by TC upon his return to the franchise.  Feel free to include them under his category if you like

With Caldwell, his picks most closely resembles Shack Harris':  Lots of misses in the first round, more hits in the second.

Undoubtedly you have noticed I did NOT compile a list of players taken after our picks with any of the other GMs except for Gene Smith.  Why?  Two reasons.  First the very nature of the draft shows that teams are going to pick good players after your pick.  That part is inevitable.  Two, and most importantly, Gene Smith got ZERO IMPACT from his picks, on the whole.  TC hit hugely on a good number of his first round picks.  Shack got a Pro Bowl season out of Marcedes Lewis (who is still playing) and Nelson developed into a Pro Bowler with Cincy after JDR lost faith in him.  Plus, Shack had a slew of outstanding picks in the second round where Smith got none.  Finally, Caldwell at least hit big on Ramsey in the first and with Robinson, and Jack in the second.

So which GMs were needs pickers and which GMs were BAP?

It's a trick question, they were all needs based drafters. Gene exposed himself fully when he took Anger because he wanted a starter, no one who takes best player would have done that.

Something the exercise shows is teams with a lot of needs have an easier time picking good players because they're usually picking higher and don't have many good players that they're thinking they shouldn't replace.

The Williams and Harvey picks fully exposed shack, the Anger pick fully exposed Smith, Caldwell got exposed in that moronic Fowler pick, and TC always admitted he was all about need (he just was luckier than the others).

Bap drafting is how teams like the Steelers win over decades. Needs based drafting is how teams like the Jaguars never seem to fill any needs.

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