You're missing the point. The point is that the projection of stats mean nothing. No one really believes that Manziel is the answer or that he would achieve those stats if he actually played a 16 game season. Similarly, there is no reason to give a player credit for the projection of his stats when he hasn't actually produced them. A projection is not the same as actuality. 

 

You're right......Bortles is IMPROVING every game. He might be closer to 38 TD than 34.

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Bortles is garbage...(he reminds me of a back up)

I'm all for drafting another QB in 2016.

 

If he can't learn from throwing the same pick 6's last year and earlier this year.... That makes him ignorant and not "the guy"...

 

LOL....Peyton Manning's first 2 years in league he had higher INT rate and more pick 6's. Farve averaged an INT 3.3% of passes for CAREER and Bortles in at 2.9% this season. You wouldn't know talent if it hit you in the face. Bortles is the real deal.

 

Most Improved Player in the NFL in 2015. Drafting another QB? You can't fix stupid.

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Bortles is garbage...(he reminds me of a back up)

I'm all for drafting another QB in 2016.


If he can't learn from throwing the same pick 6's last year and earlier this year.... That makes him ignorant and not "the guy"...

lol .... Yeah i feel ya... Just give him one more chance!

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He's 4th in the NFL in TD passes at age 23 and 1 clown said he reminds him of a backup?! The team is about to have two 1,100 yard WRs because of Bortles. Some of the posters here have no clue of reality.

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He's 4th in the NFL in TD passes at age 23 and 1 clown said he reminds him of a backup?! The team is about to have two 1,100 yard WRs because of Bortles. Some of the posters here have no clue of reality.

 

Yep, I suggest you stop wasting your time man. You can't fix stupid.

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I wish we could stop comparing players to Peyton Manning.

^^I'm completely on board with this sentiment!

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Manning didn't start THAT long ago--in 1998.  By then, the rules clearly favored the QB. And Luck only started a few years ago. So both comparisons are valid, IMO.

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I don't get into projection game but If he reaches 30+ Tds I'll be happy

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^^I'm completely on board with this sentiment!

Why?! Jags fans are like the [BLEEP] colts fans that wanted Ryan Leaf over Manning; see Teddy Bridgewater.

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Bortles is garbage...(he reminds me of a back up)

I'm all for drafting another QB in 2016.

 

If he can't learn from throwing the same pick 6's last year and earlier this year.... That makes him ignorant and not "the guy"...

My God ban this fool because only a person with a monkey avatar can make stupid comments.

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If it is so simple, why can't you be bothered to explain in a clear fashion? I'll gladly concede the point if you can justify it.

Maybe you need to invest some of your studies in some basic mathmatical concepts.

 

Using a significant sample size to project a number is considered the most rational and most accurate way to estimate a future value. It is commonly used in the fields of finance, engineering, and this science thing you claim to be studying.

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Maybe you need to invest some of your studies in some basic mathmatical concepts.

 

Using a significant sample size to project a number is considered the most rational and most accurate way to estimate a future value. It is commonly used in the fields of finance, engineering, and this science thing you claim to be studying.

 

In what world is using a third of the available data an appropriate sample size? 

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Guys, guys, guys......If you ignore him, he will go away.

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In what world is using a third of the available data an appropriate sample size? 

Im not a statistician but im pretty sure a third of the sample is statistically significant to extrapolate on. Obviously there is going to be a certain confidence interval that isnt 100% but i think it is a big enough sample size. Even if you dont want to use extrapolate the data and just want to look at stats where he currently is, he is a top 5-7 QB statistically right now in yards and TDs.

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Im not a statistician but im pretty sure a third of the sample is statistically significant to extrapolate on. Obviously there is going to be a certain confidence interval that isnt 100% but i think it is a big enough sample size. Even if you dont want to use extrapolate the data and just want to look at stats where he currently is, he is a top 5-7 QB statistically right now in yards and TDs.

 

And my point is that those current stats don't accurately reflect what has been happening on the field. If you look at the situational stats that depict the most important moments of the game, Bortles play has been bottom 5 rather than top 5. You can account for his TDS and yards because the team is always trailing and down big, so you adjust for that fact. What is harder to adjust for is why he crumbles in those pressure moments, or still throws inaccurate passes, or makes poor decisions that lead to turnovers.

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And my point is that those current stats don't accurately reflect what has been happening on the field. If you look at the situational stats that depict the most important moments of the game, Bortles play has been bottom 5 rather than top 5. You can account for his TDS and yards because the team is always trailing and down big, so you adjust for that fact. What is harder to adjust for is why he crumbles in those pressure moments, or still throws inaccurate passes, or makes poor decisions that lead to turnovers.

I disagree. I watch pretty much all the games and when I watch blake he is definitely closer to top ten than to bottom 10 as we speak. I think the only thing that holds him back is the few mistakes per game that often lead to turnovers. Blake has been one of the better passes under pressure actually he just throws the ball so many times that he makes a few mistakes in there. That isnt excusable but no QB in the league can constantly play well throwing 50 times a game and not make a few bad throws. A guy like Rivers did it this week but even that didnt lead to a win and he has been in the league for a decade.

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I disagree. I watch pretty much all the games and when I watch blake he is definitely closer to top ten than to bottom 10 as we speak. I think the only thing that holds him back is the few mistakes per game that often lead to turnovers. Blake has been one of the better passes under pressure actually he just throws the ball so many times that he makes a few mistakes in there. That isnt excusable but no QB in the league can constantly play well throwing 50 times a game and not make a few bad throws. A guy like Rivers did it this week but even that didnt lead to a win and he has been in the league for a decade.

 

I should have used better word choice. I don't mean under pressure as in facing a blitz or a free rusher, I mean those moments in the game where the plays are the most meaningful in regards to the impact they have on a win or a loss. He only completes 40% of his passes on 4.2 YPA during the 4th quarter when the team is within a single score. Look at the Texans game and how he completely melted down in the 4th quarter. Or the OT loss to the Colts where he only completed 1/6 passes. He hasn't shown the ability to elevate the team and make plays when the team needs him most. In fact, he has done just the opposite and let the team down in those moments. No way a QB who cannot come up big in those moments is a top 10 QB in the league.

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And my point is that those current stats don't accurately reflect what has been happening on the field. If you look at the situational stats that depict the most important moments of the game, Bortles play has been bottom 5 rather than top 5. You can account for his TDS and yards because the team is always trailing and down big, so you adjust for that fact. What is harder to adjust for is why he crumbles in those pressure moments, or still throws inaccurate passes, or makes poor decisions that lead to turnovers.

Sure you can say some of his yards were in garbage time. Even some of his TD's. Also some of his INTs were the result of being in predictable passing downs and having to be the offense entirely with zero run game to speak of. Also, he is getting pressured constantly. There are factors for the good and the bad. Considering how bad the oline has been and how terrible our defense is, Bortles is playing well as a 2nd year QB. Not perfect, not without blame, still needing improvement, but 2nd year so far? He's doing well.

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THE GUY HAS NOT FINISHED TWO FULL SEASONS AND IS ONLY 23 YEARS OLD AND IS TOP FIVE IN TD PASSES AND PASSING YARDS, WITH A NEARLY 2:1 TD-INT RATIO.

 

WILL CAPS LOCK HELP?

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I should have used better word choice. I don't mean under pressure as in facing a blitz or a free rusher, I mean those moments in the game where the plays are the most meaningful in regards to the impact they have on a win or a loss. He only completes 40% of his passes on 4.2 YPA during the 4th quarter when the team is within a single score. Look at the Texans game and how he completely melted down in the 4th quarter. Or the OT loss to the Colts where he only completed 1/6 passes. He hasn't shown the ability to elevate the team and make plays when the team needs him most. In fact, he has done just the opposite and let the team down in those moments. No way a QB who cannot come up big in those moments is a top 10 QB in the league.

He is in his 2nd year. You said he is playing average. Now you are arguing top 10? I don't think he is top 10. I just think he is playing well in his 2nd year. We do have to factor in he is a 2nd year QB. Is he leading the league in passing attempts? If not he has to be close. There is more being put on him than most 2nd year QBs.

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