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Let's be real. Lawrence looks horrendous


(09-29-2021, 11:41 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(09-29-2021, 11:05 AM)Upper Wrote: I mean, if we're being fair it's probably better phrased as a struggling rookie who has looked promising at times. He has shown some absurd flashes, but it's been more down than up thus far.

Still not worried about him though.

We all know too well that "being fair" in your personal alternate universe means "negative spin." 

But sure, feel free to play the half empty vs half full card. I still think "horrendous" is a laughable analysis either way.

What world do you live in?  You come off as a completely blind fanboy.  

I want Lawrence to be a first ballot hall of famer but it is a fact he has looked down right horrendous at times.  Last I checked he has the worst rating of any starting QB in the NFL.   There are times he has down right threw it right to defenders, also some of the recievers who get blamed for not catching the ball Lawrence shares the blame with many of them from being thrown in the wrong spot or just too hard.   I understand he is a rookie and yes he will make mistakes.  The amount of mistakes is the worrying part.   He get's a mulligan due to the inept to this point coaching staff, bad team, and bad play calling.   Fact is a fact he has been over his head at times.   Lets hope he can improve but throwing over 2 ints a game is down right horrendous.  I get you are excited for some throws and that is fair but it's 1 great throw for every 3 bad ones right now.
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1 great throw for three bad ones....mmmm-kay.
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The people who analyze football for a living agree with people like myself about Trevor. Feel free to read the whole article if you want, but a choice selection is included below.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/scramb...ookie-wall

Quote:Manning, however, is a great comparison for Lawrence. Manning was a great player on a bad team, spending much of his rookie season sort of testing what he could do; what windows would work and what wouldn't on the professional level. Manning also threw 26 touchdowns that year, which was the all-time record for a rookie until Baker Mayfield (and now Justin Herbert) passed it 20 years later. Lawrence is on pace for 29 touchdown passes, so he's kind of apace with Peyton in terms of "screw it, let's see what I can do" sort of plays.
Quote:Andrew: For all DVOA and DYAR are condemning the results, there's a lot to like about the process for Lawrence. If I have one worry about him, it's that the Jaguars are going to do to him what the Colts did to Andrew Luck, what we worried the Bengals had done to Joe Burrow, and what the Texans were in the process of doing to Deshaun Watson before something even worse came along. Lawrence looks set to be a stud. He can't be wasted on this franchise forever.

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On the plus side Tebow isn't on the roster or we would have a full implosion.
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Lawrence gets a shot at primetime to shine.
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(09-29-2021, 05:30 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(09-29-2021, 11:41 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: We all know too well that "being fair" in your personal alternate universe means "negative spin." 

But sure, feel free to play the half empty vs half full card. I still think "horrendous" is a laughable analysis either way.

What world do you live in?  You come off as a completely blind fanboy.  

I want Lawrence to be a first ballot hall of famer but it is a fact he has looked down right horrendous at times.  Last I checked he has the worst rating of any starting QB in the NFL.   There are times he has down right threw it right to defenders, also some of the recievers who get blamed for not catching the ball Lawrence shares the blame with many of them from being thrown in the wrong spot or just too hard.   I understand he is a rookie and yes he will make mistakes.  The amount of mistakes is the worrying part.   He get's a mulligan due to the inept to this point coaching staff, bad team, and bad play calling.   Fact is a fact he has been over his head at times.   Lets hope he can improve but throwing over 2 ints a game is down right horrendous.  I get you are excited for some throws and that is fair but it's 1 great throw for every 3 bad ones right now.

Down right!
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Not a single one of the QBs drafted this year have looked good the first 3 weeks. Zach Wilson looks like hot garbage and has 2 Tds to 7 INTs and has thrown right to defenders multiple times. He's also been sacked a lot from holding the ball. Fields can't even beat out Dalton and his chance to come out and take the job was meh at best.
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(09-29-2021, 11:11 PM)Protozoa Wrote: Not a single one of the QBs drafted this year have looked good the first 3 weeks. Zach Wilson looks like hot garbage and has 2 Tds to 7 INTs and has thrown right to defenders multiple times. He's also been sacked a lot from holding the ball. Fields can't even beat out Dalton and his chance to come out and take the job was meh at best.

Earlier today, Jared Goff spoke about the norm for rookie QBs to struggle.  With the Bears the next Lions opponent, the article focuses on Justin Fields.  But much of what Goff expressed can probably be applied to most NFL rookie QBs over the years, including Trevor Lawrence.

 https://www.mlive.com/lions/2021/09/lion...rback.html

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(09-29-2021, 11:55 PM)D6 Wrote:
(09-29-2021, 11:11 PM)Protozoa Wrote: Not a single one of the QBs drafted this year have looked good the first 3 weeks. Zach Wilson looks like hot garbage and has 2 Tds to 7 INTs and has thrown right to defenders multiple times. He's also been sacked a lot from holding the ball. Fields can't even beat out Dalton and his chance to come out and take the job was meh at best.

Earlier today, Jared Goff spoke about the norm for rookie QBs to struggle.  With the Bears the next Lions opponent, the article focuses on Justin Fields.  But much of what Goff expressed can probably be applied to most NFL rookie QBs over the years, including Trevor Lawrence.

 https://www.mlive.com/lions/2021/09/lion...rback.html

Good read, thanks for sharing. Nice to get a candid take from a QB on what's it like being a rookie. I honestly don't have any issues with Lawrence's mistakes because it feels like there mistakes he's making while trying to figure out what he can get away with. He still makes wow plays that only a few players can make and is attitude has been really good.

Honestly when I look back at Bortels and Gabberts rookie years they just had a different feel from what I've seen Lawrence so far.
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(09-30-2021, 12:49 AM)Protozoa Wrote:
(09-29-2021, 11:55 PM)D6 Wrote: Earlier today, Jared Goff spoke about the norm for rookie QBs to struggle.  With the Bears the next Lions opponent, the article focuses on Justin Fields.  But much of what Goff expressed can probably be applied to most NFL rookie QBs over the years, including Trevor Lawrence.

 https://www.mlive.com/lions/2021/09/lion...rback.html

Good read, thanks for sharing. Nice to get a candid take from a QB on what's it like being a rookie. I honestly don't have any issues with Lawrence's mistakes because it feels like there mistakes he's making while trying to figure out what he can get away with. He still makes wow plays that only a few players can make and is attitude has been really good.

Honestly when I look back at Bortels and Gabberts rookie years they just had a different feel from what I've seen Lawrence so far.

You are very welcome.

I think as long as Trevor Lawrence avoids injuries that could have an adverse affect on his long term ability and that he doesn't start seeing phantom pass rushers if he's under heavy pressure from different directions, his future as a QB should be very bright.

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This thread is akin to announcing the stove is crap "right now" because the tea kettle isn't boiling five seconds after it was put on. You have to wait five minutes to see if the tea will boil. And you have to wait a season to see if a rookie will make the grade. Otherwise you're no different than the crazy aunt complaining about the tea.
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(09-29-2021, 05:30 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(09-29-2021, 11:41 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: We all know too well that "being fair" in your personal alternate universe means "negative spin." 

But sure, feel free to play the half empty vs half full card. I still think "horrendous" is a laughable analysis either way.

What world do you live in?  You come off as a completely blind fanboy.  

I want Lawrence to be a first ballot hall of famer but it is a fact he has looked down right horrendous at times.  Last I checked he has the worst rating of any starting QB in the NFL.   There are times he has down right threw it right to defenders, also some of the recievers who get blamed for not catching the ball Lawrence shares the blame with many of them from being thrown in the wrong spot or just too hard.   I understand he is a rookie and yes he will make mistakes.  The amount of mistakes is the worrying part.   He get's a mulligan due to the inept to this point coaching staff, bad team, and bad play calling.   Fact is a fact he has been over his head at times.   Lets hope he can improve but throwing over 2 ints a game is down right horrendous.  I get you are excited for some throws and that is fair but it's 1 great throw for every 3 bad ones right now.
You have to look at week 3  carefully. So many things changed and we saw the first stage of his progression as he was finally aided by a running game and an increase in plays designed with higher completion percentage passes. He had neither in the first two weeks. 

Asking a rookie to chuck it deep 50 times a game is a recipe for disaster. 
And it was a disaster. The following week still had no run game and too many deep passes in queue. 

After reeling in those playcalls and mixing in the run, his comp % hit 64.7% and we saw him going through a progression of reads several times snd finding the open guy rather than going for the home run every time. This is meaningful progress. The pick 6 was once again a rookie put in a bad situation on the wrong side of the 50 and a complete fail by the left side of the line. While DJ did get open and aggressive playcalls are fun, you don't attempt that crap so close to your own endzone in the NFL. Bevell should know better and Norwell should know his end of it too. 

Have there been moments when he looked inexplicably bad? 
Sure. Maybe four plays each of the first two weeks and two or three last week. The overthrows and over-zipped passes resulting in bad  ball placement are textbook classic rookie mistakes that are easy to fix. 
Not "horrendous." "Normal." 
The things he's doing well are rare enough to be special, and if that part of his game rises to the top we are suddenly one of only a handful of fanbases to have a QB on that level. 

I like his chances and i see enough glimpses of it to believe he's on his way. It's just gonna be a bumpy ride at times until the arrival.  

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(This post was last modified: 09-30-2021, 09:36 AM by Sibelius. Edited 1 time in total.)

(09-29-2021, 05:30 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(09-29-2021, 11:41 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: We all know too well that "being fair" in your personal alternate universe means "negative spin." 

But sure, feel free to play the half empty vs half full card. I still think "horrendous" is a laughable analysis either way.

What world do you live in?  You come off as a completely blind fanboy.  

I want Lawrence to be a first ballot hall of famer but it is a fact he has looked down right horrendous at times.  Last I checked he has the worst rating of any starting QB in the NFL.   There are times he has down right threw it right to defenders, also some of the recievers who get blamed for not catching the ball Lawrence shares the blame with many of them from being thrown in the wrong spot or just too hard.   I understand he is a rookie and yes he will make mistakes.  The amount of mistakes is the worrying part.   He get's a mulligan due to the inept to this point coaching staff, bad team, and bad play calling.   Fact is a fact he has been over his head at times.   Lets hope he can improve but throwing over 2 ints a game is down right horrendous.  I get you are excited for some throws and that is fair but it's 1 great throw for every 3 bad ones right now.

You know who else threw two interceptions in each of their first three games? Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman. Give him time, give him a line that protects him and give him receivers who actually hold on to the ball.
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He hasn't looked good all in all but he's a rookie who has played in 3 games. You can see the flashes and now we are starting to give the ball to our best player which will help Trev a ton. Let's see how he does tonight
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(09-29-2021, 04:13 PM)CTEisREAL Wrote: Texans 3rd round rookie QB has looked the best of all the rookie QBs in my opinion.

the username/comment synergy remains strong with you.
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(This post was last modified: 09-30-2021, 01:14 PM by jaguarmvp. Edited 1 time in total.)

(09-30-2021, 09:35 AM)Sibelius Wrote:
(09-29-2021, 05:30 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: What world do you live in?  You come off as a completely blind fanboy.  

I want Lawrence to be a first ballot hall of famer but it is a fact he has looked down right horrendous at times.  Last I checked he has the worst rating of any starting QB in the NFL.   There are times he has down right threw it right to defenders, also some of the recievers who get blamed for not catching the ball Lawrence shares the blame with many of them from being thrown in the wrong spot or just too hard.   I understand he is a rookie and yes he will make mistakes.  The amount of mistakes is the worrying part.   He get's a mulligan due to the inept to this point coaching staff, bad team, and bad play calling.   Fact is a fact he has been over his head at times.   Lets hope he can improve but throwing over 2 ints a game is down right horrendous.  I get you are excited for some throws and that is fair but it's 1 great throw for every 3 bad ones right now.

You know who else threw two interceptions in each of their first three games? Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman. Give him time, give him a line that protects him and give him receivers who actually hold on to the ball.

I hear that point over and over but to play devil's advocate:

When both of the 2 hall of famers mentioned played, it was much harder to pass the football.  Recivers often paid the price for going over the middle with vicious hits.  Db's also were allowed to rough up receivers much more back in those days.  I personally do not think small receivers like Tyreek Hill could survive long term back then. The truth is the rules have been shifted the last decade of so to allow more scoring.   Lets come back to this thread by midseason and see if the arrow is pointing up, down, or sideways.
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As long as the game plan and play calling remain the same then Trevor Lawrence's career will be wasted.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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(09-30-2021, 02:09 AM)OzJohnnie Wrote: This thread is akin to announcing the stove is crap "right now" because the tea kettle isn't boiling five seconds after it was put on.  You have to wait five minutes to see if the tea will boil.  And you have to wait a season to see if a rookie will make the grade.  Otherwise you're no different than the crazy aunt complaining about the tea.

Yeah like I expect Burrow to look better being in his 2nd year and all.
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(This post was last modified: 10-01-2021, 12:56 AM by OzJohnnie. Edited 1 time in total.)

TLaw finished the game with a 90 passing rating after having a 100 rating for the first half. A really good game. Nice improvement. The number of poorly chosen passes was way down. The uncertainty under pressure was way better. He's getting better and better really quickly. By the end of the year I think he'll be exceptionally good. Knock on wood.

The one thing I would like to see is less RPO. No RPO in fact. While he had a few crucial runs for first downs, I don't think it's good to rely on his legs. His arm and his composure is the special sauce that will make him something really, really good. Running backs who can bang all day are far, far more available than QB's with his talent. If he continues to improve as he has these first four games then this guy is going to be something incredible. Give him legit #1 and #2 WRs with an actual TE? He'll carve up defenses like a Thanksgiving turkey.



It's a long, long way from next year but still... I would continue to invest in building the defense. Perhaps one WR and one TE picked up in the off-season. Tough it out with this O Line one more year (contracts allowing) and get that investment into the defense. TLaw is going to lead high-powered, high-scoring offenses. The defense just needs to make a few stops every half and the Jags O will take it from there. Next year. This year, TLaw learns to play. Maybe wins a couple.
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I'd like to see more Jamal Agnew at WR with his speed and he also displayed some good hands and concentration to to drag both feet inbounds with that phenomenal throw by Lawrence.

Shift him around and create mismatches like what we were going to do with ETN.

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