Nice work. First state nobody knows where Irma is going, then declare where Irma is going. Nobody but you, then?

The problem is some people say Gulf, others say Carolinas, and still more say Cuba. Nobody knows. What we do know is it will hit South Florida as it travels northwest. The trajectory shows its eye along the Gulf Coast - Fort Myers, Sarasota, St. Petersburg, etc.next week. Of course, it is way too early to forecast how far west Irma will go before turning northward.

You have already demonstrated that you have zero clue what you are talking about. No need to start listening now. North west? You may want to check out the weather channel.

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The problem is some people say Gulf, others say Carolinas, and still more say Cuba. Nobody knows. What we do know is it will hit South Florida as it travels northwest. The trajectory shows its eye along the Gulf Coast - Fort Myers, Sarasota, St. Petersburg, etc.next week. Of course, it is way too early to forecast how far west Irma will go before turning northward.

You have already demonstrated that you have zero clue what you are talking about. No need to start listening now. North west? You may want to check out the weather channel.

You do realize you're trying to talk sense to the epitome of cluelessness, right?

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What lies behind us, and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.







 

You have already demonstrated that you have zero clue what you are talking about. No need to start listening now. North west? You may want to check out the weather channel.

You do realize you're trying to talk sense to the epitome of cluelessness, right?

It's hard to resist the challenge.

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The projected track of this storm doesn't look good right now.  At this point it's looking like another Mathew.

Which is exactly what we don't want up here. Matthew did a lot of damage as far inland as we are when the eyewall was 200+ miles southeast of us, not to mention when he got closer. My husband couldn't leave his workplace that weekend in Fayetteville because of the flooding. We live about 55-60 miles west of where he works and there was a lot of damage here, too. And that was a small storm compared to this one. 

Like FBT said, it's not about the flooding where our house is, it would take A LOT of rain for that to happen- we're talking Naoh's Ark type water. For us it's the trees we're surrounded by. Very large and very old trees. They handled Matthew well enough but anything more than that for a period of time and I don't know what will happen. Flooding will be a problem just up the road and in town. We have the Cape Fear River Basin and the Lumbee River Basin that runs around here as well as so many creeks it's unreal. Those are what wreaked havoc last year as well as power outages from the wind snapping power lines or trees landing on them.

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The whole island of St Martin got destroyed. Crazy videos and pictures.

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First of all, let's keep this thread on-topic and refrain from correcting someone's mis-information regarding the storm track and/or gas prices.

As of now based on the projected track of the storm, there are several major things going on right here in Jagsonville.  There are going to be some school closings, office closings, etc. over the next couple of days.  People need to be aware of that.

For any of our members that happen to live in south Florida, my advice is to leave NOW before the big surge.  When hurricane Andrew hit I was in Key West on a detachment with the Navy.  We didn't evacuate until approximately 24 hours prior to landfall.  Gas was nowhere to be found in areas like Miami or Ft. Lauderdale, and traffic was "bumper-to-bumper" up both I-95 and the toll road until around the Daytona area.

In the meantime, for those of us in town, make sure that you are prepared.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

St. Marten ^

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St. Marten  ^

Honestly, all things considered, those buildings look to have held up well.

Though who knows the damage we'll see when the water recedes.

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IT WAS ALWAYS THE JAGS

St. Marten  ^

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According to reports the island of Barbuda has been almost completely wiped out. 90% of structures destroyed, likely over a 1,000 dead or injured.

[BLEEP]

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dang ... the before pic

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another of their famous airport that has gotten washed away

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The stinking track is too similar to Matthew for my liking.

Matthew

I can't get the NCH page/image from the 5pm update to reload to share here. The update looks similar to Matthew, only closer to the coast.

Also, I don't know if any of you read the "discussion" part of the page where they describe in as much detail as possible why they make the decisions they make for the tracking, but I find it fascinating how all the 'moving parts' have to move together in order for a storm to strengthen or weaken, the direction it heads, the speed at which it travels, etc. Quite interesting. In this case, in a terrifying way for anyone who is in the storm's path. This would be the 5pm update discussion.

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According to reports the island of Barbuda has been almost completely wiped out. 90% of structures destroyed, likely over a 1,000 dead or injured.

[BLEEP]

Wow, that is crazy.

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Not looking good folks.

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According to reports the island of Barbuda has been almost completely wiped out. 90% of structures destroyed, likely over a 1,000 dead or injured.

[BLEEP]

Wow, that is crazy.

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Wow, that is crazy.

There is only one confirmed death - but that number is expected to rise. 

The Guardian:

6m ago17:53
One death confirmed in Barbuda
Hurricane Irma has caused at least one death on the island of Barbuda, government officials have confirmed. Earlier, officials said 90% of structures on Barbuda were destroyed.
Midcie Francis, spokesperson for National Office of Disaster Services for Antigua and Barbuda, said there has been massive destruction on the island of roughly 1,700 people, the AP is reporting.
Lionel Hurst, the prime minister’s chief of staff, said: “A significant number of the houses have been totally destroyed.”

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The eye is predicted to be still be south of Jacksonville (around Cape Canaveral) Monday morning.

High tides in Jacksonville on Monday will occur around Noon and around Midnight. If somebody would double check that, it would be helpful as I don't want to mislead anyone.

It would be ideal, relatively, if it came by at the 6 PM low tide timeframe.

The latest NOAA chart shows the eye just northeast of Jacksonville (off of Brunswick GA) at 2pm on Monday. 

High tide at Mayport Jacksonville is 1:27pm on Monday. 

 While this is far from ideal, it would likely be a bit worse if the high tide were an hour or two earlier. 

Let's hope the models keep moving this thing further east like they have throughout the day.

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Jesus man. This is insane. Miami could very well be destroyed at this rate

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IT WAS ALWAYS THE JAGS

The problem is some people say Gulf, others say Carolinas, and still more say Cuba. Nobody knows. What we do know is it will hit South Florida as it travels northwest. The trajectory shows its eye along the Gulf Coast - Fort Myers, Sarasota, St. Petersburg, etc.next week. Of course, it is way too early to forecast how far west Irma will go before turning northward.

J-Dub, are you even paying attention? The model you keep citing is 48 hours old. The guidance has shifted dramatically east. Ensembles that put it along the west coast of FL are now the outliers, not the norm.

That explains it. I was paying attention 49 hours ago.

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The stinking track is too similar to Matthew for my liking.

Matthew

I can't get the NCH page/image from the 5pm update to reload to share here. The update looks similar to Matthew, only closer to the coast.

Also, I don't know if any of you read the "discussion" part of the page where they describe in as much detail as possible why they make the decisions they make for the tracking, but I find it fascinating how all the 'moving parts' have to move together in order for a storm to strengthen or weaken, the direction it heads, the speed at which it travels, etc. Quite interesting. In this case, in a terrifying way for anyone who is in the storm's path. This would be the 5pm update discussion.

NO kidding ... taking the Gulf Stream directly into GA, SC, and NC.

The worst part is the fact that after it passes through Florida, everyone thinks its over.  Meanwhile GA, SC, and NC were getting flooded and the national media was tuning out by that time.  Not that it makes a difference in the grand scheme of things but they should get more media exposure for what it's worth.

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