By the way, the consensus at this point is that he would be the 5th best, not the 6th best QB behind
Rosen
Darnold
Allen
Mayfield

My list is a bit different.
I'm no sold on Allen, he's down on my list below Jackson.

Rosen
Mayfield
Rudolph
Darnold
Jackson
Allen

I think all 6 COULD go in the first, but I kinda doubt it.
Jets, Bills, Browns, AZ are all in play for first round QBs to compete to start or surely start right away.
Nola, Jville, Miami, NYG, and Washington should be in play for 2nd tier QBs ready to take over in a year or two.
Pitt, Baltimore could also be in play for QB in the round 2-3 range.

Of the 6 guys I listed I think Jets, Browns, Bills, Cards, Miami, and Jville get them
Guys like Lauretta and some of the other guys who have had their names as possible day 2 guys probably end up in places like New England, Pitt, and Baltimore.

Just my guess how it plays out. And I think if Jax can land Rudolph with 29 they will take him.
But I also wouldn't be surprised to see us move up from 29 to 15-20 range if a guy like Mayfield slides there.

I think five end up going in the first:  Allen, Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Rudolph, but Jackson is a remote possibility of going there, too.

You have a breakdown of teams that could go QB.  I am curious as to why you don't have the Chargers listed in either of the last two categories of 2nd tier QBs ready to take over in a year or two, or the teams in the round 2-3 range.  Everything that applies to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Nola, NYG, and Washington also should apply to the Chargers.

Why wouldn't the Chargers fall into either of these categories in your opinion?

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

you are talking about the 6th best QB... I'm not saying that's a bad thing bc he is likely worthy of a 1st round pick... but 6 1st round QB's is insane... it never plays out like that. Teams have other needs. I wouldn't be surprised if 2 of the top 6 don't get drafted in the 1st round. Rosen, Darnold, and Allen should go in the 1st but I think 2 of Jackson, Mayfield or Rudolph will make it to the 2nd round.

According to who? To me, he's the same value, if not better than the best QB's in this draft. In fact, he's my favorite of all of them.

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There is a long history of good to great QBs dropping to round 2 and beyond.  Joe Montana was a third round pick.  Boomer Esiason was a 2nd round pick after being considered by some experts to be a first rounder.  Brett Favre dropped to the 2nd round in 1991.  Perhaps most famously, Tom Brady was a 5th round pick.

That said, given the circumstances, if scouts see him as a first round talent, I see no way he falls to the 2nd round.  In fact, I maintain the Jaguars would likely need to trade up a great deal to acquire his services.

Let's assume that Allen, Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield all go in the top six picks or so,  leaving Rudolph on the board.

Now let's look at the teams outside of the top ten that could still use a QB.

Miami-Tanneyhill has not been healthy the past few years and Cutler is done.
Buffalo-will likely trade up into the top 5-6 to get their signal caller.
Arizona-does anyone really think they will be content hitching their long term wagon to Sam Bradford?
Batimore-Flacco has won a Super Bowl, but has been average since and is now 33.
L.A. Chargers-Rivers is still a capable QB, but is in his late 30s.
New Orleans-Brees is still a stud, but will be 40 by next year.  The Saints need to find his replacement.
Pittsburgh-Big Ben is still a capable QB, but like Rivers and Brees, is in his late 30s.
New England-Brady is in his 40s now, and they have to find a replacement since they traded Garoppolo.

This does not factor in a team like Green Bay, who has proven they are willing to stockpile talent at the QB position if one falls to them (See 2005 selection of Aaron Rodgers with Brett Favre on the roster) or the unexpected trade from the top of the 2nd to into the bottom of the first.  (i.e. a Colts team that trades with Buffalo out of the 3 spot back up into the first to take a QB to hedge against Luck being finished).

I am not opposed to the Jaguars drafting a guy like Mason Rudolph if, in their opinion, he is worthy to be a first round pick.

But if we decide to go that route, we should not assume or take any chances that he will be there at 29.  The presumption should be that he won't be there.

Those picks 15-17 will be a Bermuda triangle for those wanting Rudolph at the bottom of the first.  If somehow he makes it through those teams, then I could see the Jaguars trying hard to trade up. 

It's entirely possible, however, the Jaguars will have to exceed the price KC and Houston paid to trade up last year to ensure Rudolph is available, and have to trade up higher than 15 to do it.

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I know I am quoting myself here.  Though some of you would hasten to disagree, I'm not crazy.

A discussion in another thread on this same topic came up, and I thought I'd incorporate it here.

With the caveat that you have to take trade value charts with a grain of salt, here is one by drafttek.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

According to that one, the Packers pick #14 is worth 1100 points.

Per the same chart, our pick #29 is worth 640 points, for a difference of 460 points.

To make up the difference, using picks from this year's draft only, the Jaguars would have to give up the 2nd round pick, #61 overall (292 points), the 3rd round pick, #93 overall (128) and a 4th round pick, #129 overall (43 points).

640+292+128+43=1103 points.

Keep in mind, due to the Dareus trade, we don't have a 5th round pick this year.

For additional context, the Chiefs made a similar move last year, trading up from 27th overall to 10th overall, surrendering a 3rd round pick last year and this year's first.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2017/story/...ck-mahomes

The Texans also made a similar move last year, moving up 13 spots from 25 to 12, swapping first round picks last year and giving up this year's first round pick (which wound up being #4 overall).


Making the argument that the team is moving up fewer slots in this scenario-15 slots vs 17 slots- and is not trading into the top ten like the chiefs did last year, perhaps the cost would not be as high.

Examining a more recent trade-also involving the Bills-the Bills traded the 21st overall pick and LT Cordy Glenn to Cincinnati for the #12 overall selection.  So they gave up their first round pick plus a still in his prime LT (a premium position) to move up 9 spots.

Maybe a swap of firsts plus Fowler gets us to 14, with maybe a much later pick thrown in.

(Note-I do not want to see the team trade Fowler if at all possible, but given the Packers' need for a pass rusher, our presumptive desire for a QB for the purposes of this discussion, and the depth and talent at DE, Fowler seemed a logical trade inducement)

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

here are Jason LaCanfora's thoughts in the aftermath of the Jets-Colts trade.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/la-ca...lts-trade/

Of particular relevance to our discussion on the number of first round signal callers, he offers...

Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson

I've been trying to tell people that at least five and most likely six quarterbacks are going in the first 30 picks. I may have undersold it. If four quarterbacks go in the top five picks, then I've got news for you – six may go in the top 16 picks. Quarterbacks always get pulled up by a run at the top of the draft and this year will be no different. "You're going to see a few kids get over-drafted, now," said a high ranking official from a team not in the QB market. "I guarantee you it will happen. It's like that year (2011) when (Jake) Locker went way too high and then (Blaine) Gabbert and (Christian) Ponder all went in the top 12, too. At this point, how does Baker Mayfield not go top five? And after that, Louisville (Jackson) and Oklahoma State (Rudolph) are going to end up going a lot higher than they probably should."

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I think there are all sorts of factors here.

And a big one is still going to be the value the teams place on these players.

The Jets trade could mean some middle-of-the-pack teams like the Dolphins decide not to take a QB, because all the ones they wanted have gone in the top five picks. (Maybe Browns, Jets, Giants, Broncos)

At that point, they might decide it’s better value to take another player than to over-draft a QB like Jackson or Rudolph.

In that scenario, those two players are still hanging around at the end of rnd 1 and with other players pushed down the order, because of the QBs going early, they could fall even further.

For me, even with the Jets trade, I find it hard to believe any team will want to draft Jackson inside the top 15 and Rudolph inside the top-20.

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Good Evening Everyone!

So I've lurked around this site for a while and finally got around to creating an account when I found this thread.  Here's some background on me:

I am from Oklahoma, grew up a fan of OSU and graduated from there just last December.  I played QB through high school and though I've given up playing, I still have a deep passion for the game and love to watch the QBs play.  I've attended every OSU home game for the last 4 years and I've watched every game (even the ones I've attended) on my DVR.  All that said, here's my opinion on Mason and his pro prospects.

On his personality:

Rudolph is a very, very confident individual.  He's not as vocal about it as some are, such as Mayfield or Rosen, but he is extremely confident in his arm and he's not afraid to take risks and make questionable decisions.  This is a good thing and a bad thing, it's all about how well his position coach, OC and head coach can control it.  While for many QBs this means throwing it into tight windows or throwing it across the body (a Mayfield specialty), for Rudolph it means locking in on the deep route and trying to hit the home run ball.  Obviously, his favorite target was James Washington, but as the season progressed Marcell Ateman also became a popular long ball target as teams started to roll safeties over to Washington's side of the field.  Along this line of thought:

Deep Passes:

These are his bread and butter and are what has him so high on some team's draft boards.  While he was bailed out by his receivers on numerous occasions, he really is phenomenally accurate on deep balls which is what helps his receivers bail him out.  He is so accurate with these passes, they really aren't "50/50" balls as he gives his receivers every advantage he can.  He gets plenty of air under his passes and his touch is second-to-none.  This can be seen when you see that his top target (Washington) on these deep passes stand at just 6'0".  Now, he does believe a little too much in his accuracy and throws into tight coverages, but these mistakes rarely result in a turnover because of his ball placement.

Issues with intermediate routes:

These were a struggle all season long for him, and a lot of the blame can be placed on his offensive line.  The left side of his line was absolutely atrocious in pass defense, as Aaron Cochran and the revolving door at LG were constantly abused by some rather poor Big 12 defenses.  While he did make some errant reads and fail to go through his progressions, you could tell that he had very little confidence that his blindside protection would allow him and his receivers enough time to connect on these routes.  Why then was he so accurate on his deep passes?  Simply put, it took less time for the play to develop if his receivers were just streaking down the numbers as opposed to trying to run 10-15 yard crossing patterns.  Now, the struggles with these routes weren't solely on his line, but we will come back to this a bit later.

Short passes:

Ah.  The short (and lateral) passes.  They're a Mike Yurcich (OC) special, and I freaking hate how often these plays are called.  And just before you ask, no, Rudolph wasn't given the freedom to check out of these at will.  Rudolph was great at the short passes his Freshman and first part of his Sophomore seasons, but in the later part of his Sophomore year he sustained a knee injury on his left knee.  Nothing major, but you will notice that he starts to wear a knee brace off and on for the rest of his career.  I'm of the opinion, and I think his tape will show this, that his inconsistency on the short passes during this stretch from his Sophomore through Junior year is due to his lack of confidence in his leading leg.  He would often drop back and rest on that back leg (right leg), causing him to throw off of that back foot and causing the ball to sail.  Nothing on this was confirmed as Gundy is very Belichick-like when it comes to injuries and plenty of OSU insiders were buying into some theory that he had hurt his foot, but the knee thing was an issue and I think the tape shows that.  Now, there was marked improvement in his Senior year with accuracy in these short routes, but he still struggled to see defenders on these short "rub" crossing routes.  

Coaching:

Mike Yurcich, his OC and QB coach, is an interesting person.  Gundy hired him out of thin air, after googling top offenses in the country.  I'm not lying, that's literally what happened.  He came across Yurcich after finding him and his Shippensburg State offense (he was the OC) on his google search and next thing we know, we have a Division II offensive coordinator coming to Stillwater to try his hand at leading a Big 12 offense.  What's been most confusing is his title as QB coach, a title he's had his entire coaching career.  During his time at OSU, there's been very minimal progression of any of our QBs, and we've even had a few of the backups transfer out only to do better elsewhere (albeit at smaller schools).  The biggest issue I believe Rudolph has is his footwork, a problem he's had from the beginning but has not seemed to get much better during his time at OSU.  This is somewhat masked due to the entire offense seemingly being run out of a shotgun formation, but it gets exposed when he has to turn and release the ball quickly.  The biggest question I have about Rudolph being in the NFL is whether or not better QB coaches will help him improve his footwork, because he will not get away with a lot of his short passes in the NFL like he did in the Big 12 (obviously).

I'm sure there's more that I could think of to share, but it's late and I can't think of anything else to write.  My guess is that he's a second round pick, and honestly the value wouldn't be there for the Jags to take him due to anticipated BAP approach to this draft.  However, he is a good QB and have a good (if not great) NFL career in the right situation and I think the Jags are one of the teams that could provide that (very good run game and great defense).  If anyone has any questions, I will try my best to answer.  I'm no QB expert by any means, but I have watched every one of his college games.

Bonus take: I would take Rudolph before I took Mayfield.  Mayfield is very talented but he makes a lot of questionable passes that he could get away with in the Big 12, but won't in the NFL.  He is a great improviser and can dance in the pocket to buy time, but he often throws across his body or floats the ball when in that situation and NFL defense will absolutely expose that flaw in his game.  He will also take a lot of abuse in the NFL as he doesn't shy away from hits when running with the ball.  Similarly to Rudolph, if he gets in the right situation and the coaches can reign in his confidence, he will be a good QB, but that's a big question mark.  There's a reason why he turned the ball over so much when he played for Texas Tech and why all of a sudden he did so well at OU.  In the right situation and on a team with superior talent, he excels.  However, the talent gap between teams is much more narrow in the NFL than it is in the Big 12.

Thanks for the input on Rudolph. My biggest hesitation was from watching some cut-ups, and then as I pictured him throwing in the NFL I kept thinking his passes are going to get intercepted. That may have just been my impression, but I noticed he tends to float them out there, and in the NFL guys are quick to cut off passes and return them for six. It's a little reassuring that you talk about his understanding of ball placement to avoid those INTs. 

With that said, he wouldn't be expected to start until at least December 2019, and that's only if the Jaguars find themselves out of the Playoffs, so he'd have the time he needs to develop.

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'02

By the way, the consensus at this point is that he would be the 5th best, not the 6th best QB behind
Rosen
Darnold
Allen
Mayfield

My list is a bit different.
I'm no sold on Allen, he's down on my list below Jackson.

Rosen
Mayfield
Rudolph
Darnold
Jackson
Allen

That's quite an unexpected list, but I hear you on Allen. I watch his game tapes and simply am not sold at all. He's very erratic and will need plenty of time to develop despite his strong arm.

I haven't nailed my order, but Darnold and Rosen are my top two. Mayfield is #3... and then it's really close in my book betwen Allen an Jackson.

Afther that I have Rudolph in round two (maybe as early as #29 as we might go there) followed by Falk and Litton who I suspect will be there in round three. 

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'02

On 2nd thought, I'll move Rudolph over Allen and Jackson as well. I'm not saying the draft will work out like this, but for now I'll rank them...

1. Rosen
   
2. Darnold
   
3. Mayfield
   
4. Rudolph
   
5. Jackson
   
6. Allen
   
7. Falk
   

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'02

As a rule of thumb, beware of the fast-rising QB. Beware! Beware! Beware!

---

My list is a bit different.
I'm no sold on Allen, he's down on my list below Jackson.

Rosen
Mayfield
Rudolph
Darnold
Jackson
Allen

I think all 6 COULD go in the first, but I kinda doubt it.
Jets, Bills, Browns, AZ are all in play for first round QBs to compete to start or surely start right away.
Nola, Jville, Miami, NYG, and Washington should be in play for 2nd tier QBs ready to take over in a year or two.
Pitt, Baltimore could also be in play for QB in the round 2-3 range.

Of the 6 guys I listed I think Jets, Browns, Bills, Cards, Miami, and Jville get them
Guys like Lauretta and some of the other guys who have had their names as possible day 2 guys probably end up in places like New England, Pitt, and Baltimore.

Just my guess how it plays out. And I think if Jax can land Rudolph with 29 they will take him.
But I also wouldn't be surprised to see us move up from 29 to 15-20 range if a guy like Mayfield slides there.

I think five end up going in the first:  Allen, Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Rudolph, but Jackson is a remote possibility of going there, too.

You have a breakdown of teams that could go QB.  I am curious as to why you don't have the Chargers listed in either of the last two categories of 2nd tier QBs ready to take over in a year or two, or the teams in the round 2-3 range.  Everything that applies to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Nola, NYG, and Washington also should apply to the Chargers.

Why wouldn't the Chargers fall into either of these categories in your opinion?

Just a brain fart on my part there. Bolts definitely should be looking into Rivers' eventual replacement.

---

My list is a bit different.
I'm no sold on Allen, he's down on my list below Jackson.

Rosen
Mayfield
Rudolph
Darnold
Jackson
Allen

That's quite an unexpected list, but I hear you on Allen. I watch his game tapes and simply am not sold at all. He's very erratic and will need plenty of time to develop despite his strong arm.

I haven't nailed my order, but Darnold and Rosen are my top two. Mayfield is #3... and then it's really close in my book betwen Allen an Jackson.

Afther that I have Rudolph in round two (maybe as early as #29 as we might go there) followed by Falk and Litton who I suspect will be there in round three. 

I know a lot of people are high on Darnold and I'm scoffed at quite a bit by a lot of people for having him so low.
I just think there's a bit of football immaturity there. On the field with the turnovers and what not. Only two year starter. IMO, if he's drafted #1 overall to Cleveland I think he flounders. 
If he goes, say #2 to the G-Men, with the right staff and a QB like Eli ahead of him he could turn out to be the best QB of the draft. I don't doubt his talent, just a lil weary of him playing right away on a bad team.

Whereas I think guys like Rosen and Mayfield will play well right away (but possibly have their own immaturity issues off the field i.e. questionable attitudes and sketchy pasts).

---

I think five end up going in the first:  Allen, Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Rudolph, but Jackson is a remote possibility of going there, too.

You have a breakdown of teams that could go QB.  I am curious as to why you don't have the Chargers listed in either of the last two categories of 2nd tier QBs ready to take over in a year or two, or the teams in the round 2-3 range.  Everything that applies to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Nola, NYG, and Washington also should apply to the Chargers.

Why wouldn't the Chargers fall into either of these categories in your opinion?

Just a brain fart on my part there. Bolts definitely should be looking into Rivers' eventual replacement.

---

That's quite an unexpected list, but I hear you on Allen. I watch his game tapes and simply am not sold at all. He's very erratic and will need plenty of time to develop despite his strong arm.

I haven't nailed my order, but Darnold and Rosen are my top two. Mayfield is #3... and then it's really close in my book betwen Allen an Jackson.

Afther that I have Rudolph in round two (maybe as early as #29 as we might go there) followed by Falk and Litton who I suspect will be there in round three. 

I know a lot of people are high on Darnold and I'm scoffed at quite a bit by a lot of people for having him so low.
I just think there's a bit of football immaturity there. On the field with the turnovers and what not. Only two year starter. IMO, if he's drafted #1 overall to Cleveland I think he flounders. 
If he goes, say #2 to the G-Men, with the right staff and a QB like Eli ahead of him he could turn out to be the best QB of the draft. I don't doubt his talent, just a lil weary of him playing right away on a bad team.

Whereas I think guys like Rosen and Mayfield will play well right away (but possibly have their own immaturity issues off the field i.e. questionable attitudes and sketchy pasts).

At least we see alike on Josh Allen. I keep running into people saying he's the best in the draft, but that's mainly due to his arm strength.

Unless it's me who just hasn't watched enough tape, I'm thinking others aren't really watching because the guy in my eyes...well... sucks on tape. He's just a bad QB. 

---

'02

I'm gonna be furious if we take either Allen or Jackson. I believe both are gonna be duds, ala Christian Hackenberg.

---

Just a brain fart on my part there. Bolts definitely should be looking into Rivers' eventual replacement.

---

I know a lot of people are high on Darnold and I'm scoffed at quite a bit by a lot of people for having him so low.
I just think there's a bit of football immaturity there. On the field with the turnovers and what not. Only two year starter. IMO, if he's drafted #1 overall to Cleveland I think he flounders. 
If he goes, say #2 to the G-Men, with the right staff and a QB like Eli ahead of him he could turn out to be the best QB of the draft. I don't doubt his talent, just a lil weary of him playing right away on a bad team.

Whereas I think guys like Rosen and Mayfield will play well right away (but possibly have their own immaturity issues off the field i.e. questionable attitudes and sketchy pasts).

At least we see alike on Josh Allen. I keep running into people saying he's the best in the draft, but that's mainly due to his arm strength.

Unless it's me who just hasn't watched enough tape, I'm thinking others aren't really watching because the guy in my eyes...well... sucks on tape. He's just a bad QB. 

JaMarcus Russel had a cannon of an arm too.
lol
I don't get the Allen hype. And never have. 0 star recruit had to beg his way onto Wyoming after JuCo... and didn't play that well especially against big boys.

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Rudolph is our guy, I’m sure of it.

Me thinks Dave and Tom have a plan to trade up just in case.

---

Rudolph is our guy, I’m sure of it.

Me thinks Dave and Tom have a plan to trade up just in case.

If we trade UP for Rudolph I'm going to be livid. I know everyone is talking about his completion percentage against pressure but we're talking about the big 12 here. Everyone is wide open! There are MAYBE 2 half decent defenses, that's it. I don't see the hype in this guy. The Draft Dudes and Locked On guys don't see it either and they continuously bring up the fact that the people they know in NFL circles think he's a 3rd or 4th round guy. That's going to be a no for me dog.

---

Rudolph is our guy, I’m sure of it.

Me thinks Dave and Tom have a plan to trade up just in case.

I hope to God you're right.

---

Just curious, does anyone here think he’s in the top tier of QBs in this draft?

Or is he simply the best QB still likely to be available by the time we pick?

I’ve got a feeling we wouldn’t even be discussing him if we were picking inside the top 10-15.

Or do you think he’d be a top pick in any other year?

---

There are two people around here who think so. There are very, very few other people who do.

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Just curious, does anyone here think he’s in the top tier of QBs in this draft?

Or is he simply the best QB still likely to be available by the time we pick?

I’ve got a feeling we wouldn’t even be discussing him if we were picking inside the top 10-15.

Or do you think he’d be a top pick in any other year?

Best QB likely to be available. 

He'd have more hype if this wasn't a very strong QB class but still is only a low end starter type in my eyes. Maybe an average QB in the right system.

---

Just curious, does anyone here think he’s in the top tier of QBs in this draft?

Or is he simply the best QB still likely to be available by the time we pick?

I’ve got a feeling we wouldn’t even be discussing him if we were picking inside the top 10-15.

Or do you think he’d be a top pick in any other year?

I definitely do. Rudolph has been my favorite since day 1. I have him and Mayfield neck and neck with Rosen barely behind them due to injury and attitude concerns only. Nothing to do with talent on the field. Talent wise, Rosen is right there with them. I am not a fan at all of Allen or Jackson. Personally, I wouldn't consider Allen until at least round 3 and there better not be better options on the board like White or even Lauletta. I'd take them over him. I wouldn't touch Jackson. He needed to stay in school, add more meat to his frame, (particularly the lower body) and work on his passing from the pocket. he's nowhere near ready for the NFL and may never be.

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