Let's look at the first round picks under his tenure. Understand, I'm not evaluating these picks...I'm just making the point that he's predictable.

First year - Joeckel.  Everyone knew he'd take an OT, and it was either gonna be Luke, or the guy who went to the Chiefs.
Second year - Bortles - this was a bit of a shock. Everyone knew he'd take a QB for sure, but I thought it would be Manzel or Bridgewater.
Third year - Fowler.  Kind of like the Bortles pick, everyone knew he'd take a pass rusher -- so Fowler wasn't really a surprise.
Fourth year - Ramsey. Predicatable.
Fifth year - Fournette. Predictable.
Sixth year - Bryan. This is the anamoly. Didn't see this one coming.


So this year, the majority of draftniks thinks the Jags are going to take Jawaan Taylor from UF.  I wouldn't bet against it. What do you say?

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So 40% was unpredictable.

Got it.

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"I'm not mad, I'm proud of you. You took your first pinch like a man and you learn two great things in your life. Look at me, never rat on your friends and always keep your mouth shut." - Jimmy Conway

So 40% was unpredictable.

Got it.

I think he's going to take an OT.  Now, he may not take Taylor, although most think he's the best OT in the draft.

I can't see them taking Hockensen at #7.  Not unless they trade back and get him that way.

I'd love for them to take Haskins, if he's available. I've resigned myself to the fact that they won't. They're all in on Foles.

They could go for a pass rusher - this would be a dark horse candidate, and would fill a need, as Campbell is getting older.

But I'm guessing Taylor is the guy.

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I think Jonah William's could be a surprise pick

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Well it's fairly easily to predict when you're continually picking high in the draft. Things are much more obvious.

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I don't think Caldwell will be in charge this year. Coughlin is in dire straits this season. It's make or break for him. He'll pick the top 3-4 picks probably and let Caldwell pick the rest.

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A True Fan ladies and gentlemen:

Ramsey for Grier straight up

I don't think Caldwell will be in charge this year. Coughlin is in dire straits this season. It's make or break for him. He'll pick the top 3-4 picks probably and let Caldwell pick the rest.

Then the Jags are doomed in this draft.

Coughlin is as stubborn as they come and he's living in the 90's.

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Let's look at the first round picks under his tenure. Understand, I'm not evaluating these picks...I'm just making the point that he's predictable.

First year - Joeckel.  Everyone knew he'd take an OT, and it was either gonna be Luke, or the guy who went to the Chiefs.
Second year - Bortles - this was a bit of a shock. Everyone knew he'd take a QB for sure, but I thought it would be Manzel or Bridgewater.
Third year - Fowler.  Kind of like the Bortles pick, everyone knew he'd take a pass rusher -- so Fowler wasn't really a surprise.
Fourth year - Ramsey. Predicatable.
Fifth year - Fournette. Predictable.
Sixth year - Bryan. This is the anamoly. Didn't see this one coming.


So this year, the majority of draftniks thinks the Jags are going to take Jawaan Taylor from UF.  I wouldn't bet against it. What do you say?

Speak for yourself...  Bridgewater and Manziel were not considered top 5 prospects.  I'm pretty sure most people thought he would be picking Mack or another D-line prospect.
Regardless, the one thing all those picks have in common aside from Bryan, is they were all top 5 draft choices.  It's a lot easier to guess on the first few picks than any of the others.

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His drafts have been predictable with regard to just about always taking the highest player available on his board. The only possible exception was Bortles since all teams reach a little for quarterbacks. This year is really tough to predict other than it will be one of 3 positions- offensive tackle, tight end or defensive line. There's no way to know until draft day what their board looks like. That being said, I can't say I'd be shocked if they took any of these players:

Jawaan Taylor
Jonah Williams
Andre Dillard

T.J. Hockenson

Rashan Gary
Ed Oliver
Montez Sweat
Josh Allen

That's 8 possible players and nobody other than Coughlin and Caldwell know what they think of these players. Can't remember a year when there were this many reasonable choices. My gut, however, says this is the year they go for tight end. They've had mediocrity at this position for way too long and Hockenson is rated a top 10 player in this draft by many "experts." Daniel Jeremiah said that Hockenson is his favorite player in the draft, although he's not rated number 1 on his list of top players. If they knew that Irv Smith was going to be available in the 2nd round, they might go with a tackle or defensive lineman, but there's a very good chance he won't be and the drop-off after the top 3 tight ends is fairly big. Knox and Sternberger may have good measureables, but neither is a sure-thing compared to Hockenson who is probably the safest pick in the entire draft.

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Bortles was not predictable at all.

Fournette and Bryan both feel like they had more Coughlin influence than Caldwell. Bryan wasn't predictable and Fournette was a bit of a coin-flip more than he was "predictable." Who knows if those were Caldwell's primary choices?

I do not feel like this year is predictable for the same reason that Fournette and Bryan were not really all that predictable.
We don't know to what degree TC is going to affect Caldwell's big board. They seem to have enough differences in draft tendency that I'm not sure how one could feel comfortable predicting what their consensus will be and whether Coughlin will simply veto a selection and make his own.

I think a DL player is in play at #7 if one falls unexpectedly, and I think OL and TE are also both options that will be of real consideration.
While TC is more likely to select a TE outside of the first, Hockenson may be good enough for him to depart from the usual protocol.

I'd be very unsurprised by any of those three positions being selected.

Jawaan Taylor would seem predictable due to the uncertainty at RT, but there are enough varied opinions of his worthiness as a top ten selection that I'd not just assume the Jags' brass are on board.

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I still think we look for a good trade back partner.

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I still think we look for a good trade back partner.

I think it's more of a possibility this year than in recent drafts for us.

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I still think we look for a good trade back partner.

Best possible, outcome IMO

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

I still think we look for a good trade back partner.

Best possible, outcome IMO

agreed

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That being said, watch Coughlin take a DL. He was never short of DL in NY.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

I think if any of these three fall to us at #7, and it was my choice, it would be very hard to pass them up: Williams, Oliver, Allen.

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I don't think Caldwell will be in charge this year. Coughlin is in dire straits this season. It's make or break for him. He'll pick the top 3-4 picks probably and let Caldwell pick the rest.

If they follow this plan, Shad should fire them both. If Coughlin doesn't trust the GM to make the picks, he should have the stones to fire the GM.

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As to the predictability of picks, the one thing I will say is that Caldwell seems very inclined to fill need with his early picks, whether or not the player is "BPA" or even best at the position chosen.

If you look at every one of the early picks (excluding Bryan), we had a glaring need at the position selected. You can argue that need forced the pick in some situations (Bortles over Mack, Fournette over any of the QBs), and hopefully what we saw last year is the beginning of a new trend - the roster doesn't have talent vacuums at most positions, so we have the freedom to pursue value over immediate need. This draft is really intriguing, because the closer we get to draft day, it seems extremely likely that high value will be available at a position that is certainly not an immediate need. What we do at 7 will be very telling of the philosophy we should expect to see in the future from Dave - does he forego a better defensive talent to fill an offensive need? Does he accept and offer to trade, and recoup some value by skipping over the defensive talent? Does he stick to the board and take a defensive guy that might not start immediately, but represent a longer-term vision?

I honestly don't know what we'll do. I love it!

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As to the predictability of picks, the one thing I will say is that Caldwell seems very inclined to fill need with his early picks, whether or not the player is "BPA" or even best at the position chosen.

If you look at every one of the early picks (excluding Bryan), we had a glaring need at the position selected. You can argue that need forced the pick in some situations (Bortles over Mack, Fournette over any of the QBs), and hopefully what we saw last year is the beginning of a new trend - the roster doesn't have talent vacuums at most positions, so we have the freedom to pursue value over immediate need. This draft is really intriguing, because the closer we get to draft day, it seems extremely likely that high value will be available at a position that is certainly not an immediate need. What we do at 7 will be very telling of the philosophy we should expect to see in the future from Dave - does he forego a better defensive talent to fill an offensive need? Does he accept and offer to trade, and recoup some value by skipping over the defensive talent? Does he stick to the board and take a defensive guy that might not start immediately, but represent a longer-term vision?

I honestly don't know what we'll do. I love it!

I don't really have any disagreement here, but I feel a distinction should be made when reviewing Caldwell's drafting and first round picks etc. 

He owns 2013-2016 outright -- but the decisions have not been solely his the past two drafts, nor will they be solely his this year. 

I half-jokingly like to employ the term "CoughWell" when describing our personnel decision makers these days. 

From all the breadcrumbs I can gather through interviews and articles, Dave Caldwell still functions the same in his role as he did prior to TC's arrival, but when it comes time to pull the trigger on acquisitions and transactions, he requires Coughlin's approval and is subject to potential changes at that stage. So - both of these guys have to bear the burden of the 2017, 2018, and 2019 drafts in some fashion. For better or for worse.

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As to the predictability of picks, the one thing I will say is that Caldwell seems very inclined to fill need with his early picks, whether or not the player is "BPA" or even best at the position chosen.

If you look at every one of the early picks (excluding Bryan), we had a glaring need at the position selected. You can argue that need forced the pick in some situations (Bortles over Mack, Fournette over any of the QBs), and hopefully what we saw last year is the beginning of a new trend - the roster doesn't have talent vacuums at most positions, so we have the freedom to pursue value over immediate need. This draft is really intriguing, because the closer we get to draft day, it seems extremely likely that high value will be available at a position that is certainly not an immediate need. What we do at 7 will be very telling of the philosophy we should expect to see in the future from Dave - does he forego a better defensive talent to fill an offensive need? Does he accept and offer to trade, and recoup some value by skipping over the defensive talent? Does he stick to the board and take a defensive guy that might not start immediately, but represent a longer-term vision?

I honestly don't know what we'll do. I love it!

I don't really have any disagreement here, but I feel a distinction should be made when reviewing Caldwell's drafting and first round picks etc. 

He owns 2013-2016 outright -- but the decisions have not been solely his the past two drafts, nor will they be solely his this year. 

I half-jokingly like to employ the term "CoughWell" when describing our personnel decision makers these days. 

From all the breadcrumbs I can gather through interviews and articles, Dave Caldwell still functions the same in his role as he did prior to TC's arrival, but when it comes time to pull the trigger on acquisitions and transactions, he requires Coughlin's approval and is subject to potential changes at that stage. So - both of these guys have to bear the burden of the 2017, 2018, and 2019 drafts in some fashion. For better or for worse.

It'll never happen, but I would absolutely love to see a break down of how all the big decisions were made over the last few years. Which ones were Coughlin decisions, which moves were gonna be made that Coughlin vetoed, etc etc. It would be fascinating. I need someone to point my finger at!

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