If we drop to 11/13 and net an additional 2nd/4th I would do it...I would assume this would be to grab one of the QBs.

Murray/Lock/Haskins/Jones (some combo of 3 out of the 4) would be off the board.
Bosa/Allen/Q.Williams/D. White would all likely be off the board as well.

That would be 7 of the 10/12 picks before 11/13...so one of the following would still be there at 11/13:
TE: TJ Hockenson
DL: Ed Oliver
DL: Montez Sweat
DL: Rashan Gary
DL: Brian Burns
OL: Jawaan Taylor
OL: Jonah Williams
OL: Andre Dillard
OL: Cody Ford
TE: Noah Fant
WR. DK Metcalf


Maybe it shakes out to:
8 - Detroit : DL - Sweat/Burns
9 - Buffalo: OL - Dillard/Taylor/Williams or WR - Metcalf
10 - Denver: Whichever QB is left of Jones/Haskins/Lock
11 - Jacksonville: Still has their choice of Oliver/Hockenson

There is zero chance Oliver will be there at 11.  It wouldn't be a surprise if he goes before William's.  If you want to add Oliver you should add Allen and William's too

DJs latest mock has him going to the Jets


https://amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000...AEA&sr=amp

Well then you go Hockenson and net an additional 2nd....point being there will still be a nice player at 11/13 if the compensation for trade back is there.

---

Hockenson will be gone by pick #10 and Risner will most likely still be on the board at #38, when we pick in round 2. If we miss out on Hockenson, we'll regret it.

Hockenson is not an exceptional athlete. He's just the most complete TE in the class. He'll likely be solid, but he'd be pure need as opposed to BAP so actually we'll probably ending up kicking ourselves for taking need over BAP in the long run.

You do realize that almost every "draft expert" on television has Hockenson in their top 5-7 overall players in the draft. He must be pretty special if he is a consensus top pick with all of those guys.

---

If we drop to 11/13 and net an additional 2nd/4th I would do it...I would assume this would be to grab one of the QBs.

Murray/Lock/Haskins/Jones (some combo of 3 out of the 4) would be off the board.
Bosa/Allen/Q.Williams/D. White would all likely be off the board as well.

That would be 7 of the 10/12 picks before 11/13...so one of the following would still be there at 11/13:
TE: TJ Hockenson
DL: Ed Oliver
DL: Montez Sweat
DL: Rashan Gary
DL: Brian Burns
OL: Jawaan Taylor
OL: Jonah Williams
OL: Andre Dillard
OL: Cody Ford
TE: Noah Fant
WR. DK Metcalf


Maybe it shakes out to:
8 - Detroit : DL - Sweat/Burns
9 - Buffalo: OL - Dillard/Taylor/Williams or WR - Metcalf
10 - Denver: Whichever QB is left of Jones/Haskins/Lock
11 - Jacksonville: Still has their choice of Oliver/Hockenson 

I have Detroit taking Sweat
Buffalo taking Dilliard
Denver would then take Hockenson. They are one of the teams said to covet him and I highly doubt they take a QB in the first round. 
I have Oliver going to the Giants at #6, so in your scenario we'd be screwed, IMO.

---

Hockenson will be gone by pick #10 and Risner will most likely still be on the board at #38, when we pick in round 2. If we miss out on Hockenson, we'll regret it.

Hockenson is not an exceptional athlete. He's just the most complete TE in the class. He'll likely be solid, but he'd be pure need as opposed to BAP so actually we'll probably ending up kicking ourselves for taking need over BAP in the long run.

How do you figure he's not a great athlete?
Hes almost 90 percentile in almost  every athleticism test


https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/tj-hockenson

---

Hockenson is not an exceptional athlete. He's just the most complete TE in the class. He'll likely be solid, but he'd be pure need as opposed to BAP so actually we'll probably ending up kicking ourselves for taking need over BAP in the long run.

How do you figure he's not a great athlete?
Hes almost 90 percentile in almost  every athleticism test


https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/tj-hockenson

85th percentile SPARQ, plays down a tad because he's a little small. I'm not sure what the threshold for 'exceptional' is, bur he's very good for sure.

---

Hockenson is not an exceptional athlete. He's just the most complete TE in the class. He'll likely be solid, but he'd be pure need as opposed to BAP so actually we'll probably ending up kicking ourselves for taking need over BAP in the long run.

You do realize that almost every "draft expert" on television has Hockenson in their top 5-7 overall players in the draft. He must be pretty special if he is a consensus top pick with all of those guys.

---

If we drop to 11/13 and net an additional 2nd/4th I would do it...I would assume this would be to grab one of the QBs.

Murray/Lock/Haskins/Jones (some combo of 3 out of the 4) would be off the board.
Bosa/Allen/Q.Williams/D. White would all likely be off the board as well.

That would be 7 of the 10/12 picks before 11/13...so one of the following would still be there at 11/13:
TE: TJ Hockenson
DL: Ed Oliver
DL: Montez Sweat
DL: Rashan Gary
DL: Brian Burns
OL: Jawaan Taylor
OL: Jonah Williams
OL: Andre Dillard
OL: Cody Ford
TE: Noah Fant
WR. DK Metcalf


Maybe it shakes out to:
8 - Detroit : DL - Sweat/Burns
9 - Buffalo: OL - Dillard/Taylor/Williams or WR - Metcalf
10 - Denver: Whichever QB is left of Jones/Haskins/Lock
11 - Jacksonville: Still has their choice of Oliver/Hockenson 

I have Detroit taking Sweat
Buffalo taking Dilliard
Denver would then take Hockenson. They are one of the teams said to covet him and I highly doubt they take a QB in the first round. 
I have Oliver going to the Giants at #6, so in your scenario we'd be screwed, IMO.

So in your scenario I assume,
Murray/Bosa/Allen/Oliver/Williams/D.White/Sweat/Dillard/Hockenson/Lock are the top 10?  I still think one of Haskins/Jones will go top 10 once Lock/Murray go.

So that still leaves Ford/Taylor/William's if they want to go OL.

Haskins/Jones as QB to pick or trade back again with.

Heck...what if Waahington calls at 15 wanting to jump Miami for Haskins...and throws in another 2nd/4th.

We will have dropped from 7 to 15 picked up an additional 2nd/2nd/4th/4th...and could still grab one of Ford/Fant/Taylor/Williams/Gary/Burns.

I like Hockenson but Ford and 2nd/2nd/4th/4th sounds like a pretty nice consolation prize....

---

You do realize that almost every "draft expert" on television has Hockenson in their top 5-7 overall players in the draft. He must be pretty special if he is a consensus top pick with all of those guys.

---

I have Detroit taking Sweat
Buffalo taking Dilliard
Denver would then take Hockenson. They are one of the teams said to covet him and I highly doubt they take a QB in the first round. 
I have Oliver going to the Giants at #6, so in your scenario we'd be screwed, IMO.

So in your scenario I assume,
Murray/Bosa/Allen/Oliver/Williams/D.White/Sweat/Dillard/Hockenson/Lock are the top 10?  I still think one of Haskins/Jones will go top 10 once Lock/Murray go.

So that still leaves Ford/Taylor/William's if they want to go OL.

Haskins/Jones as QB to pick or trade back again with.

Heck...what if Waahington calls at 15 wanting to jump Miami for Haskins...and throws in another 2nd/4th.

We will have dropped from 7 to 15 picked up an additional 2nd/2nd/4th/4th...and could still grab one of Ford/Fant/Taylor/Williams/Gary/Burns.

I like Hockenson but Ford and 2nd/2nd/4th/4th sounds like a pretty nice consolation prize....

I have Lock going #13 to Miami. I have Denver selecting Noah Fant, if we take Hockenson. I don't think they will take a QB in round 1. They have a big need at TE. I want no part of Jawaan Taylor or Rahsan Gary. I think both will be busts. I love Ford, but not as a RT. I see him as a potential all-pro OG and if we select him in round 1, we'll probably play him at RT, which would be a mistake. I like Burns, but not that high and not for our team. I believe the only real need we have on defense is FS.

---

Speak for yourself.

There's a slightly better chance this year of palatable offers than some of the previous scenarios, but I'm not worked up about it. 

Gleaning more picks would be a pleasant surprise, especially if the trade down still lands a Hockenson or Risner.

Hockenson will be gone by pick #10 and Risner will most likely still be on the board at #38, when we pick in round 2. If we miss out on Hockenson, we'll regret it.

It's close, but I'd be willing to bet you'll be wrong on both those counts.

---

https://twitter.com/danielrpopper/status...8058138625

---

https://twitter.com/danielrpopper/status...8058138625

It seems like he has a few "discussions" about training back every year. But it never happens.

---

https://twitter.com/danielrpopper/status...8058138625

It seems like he has a few "discussions" about training back every year. But it never happens.

This, he mentions it every year.  Instead he would rather take busts

---

It seems like he has a few "discussions" about training back every year. But it never happens.

This, he mentions it every year.  Instead he would rather take busts

He usually says that the teams making the offer would have to knock his socks off

---

This, he mentions it every year.  Instead he would rather take busts

He usually says that the teams making the offer would have to knock his socks off

I hope he wears the loose ones on Draft Day.

---

Season Ticket holder since 2004.

 

        

https://twitter.com/danielrpopper/status...8058138625

It seems like he has a few "discussions" about training back every year. But it never happens.

Yep.

Only once in 24 previous drafts did the team trade back in round 1.

---

It seems like he has a few "discussions" about training back every year. But it never happens.

This, he mentions it every year.  Instead he would rather take busts

Trading back does not guarantee immunity from drafting busts.

Standing pat does not guarantee a team will draft a bust.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Someone on TV made a good point the other day, and that was, that trading up this year will probably require less draft capital than usual, because there is a plateau of players in the first round that are roughly equal, so trading up would not be as attractive as in previous years.   The person trading up is not going to get that much better of a player, and the team trading down isn't going to get that much worse of a player.   So teams will have to take less than usual to trade down.

---

Someone on TV made a good point the other day, and that was, that trading up this year will probably require less draft capital than usual, because there is a plateau of players in the first round that are roughly equal, so trading up would not be as attractive as in previous years.   The person trading up is not going to get that much better of a player, and the team trading down isn't going to get that much worse of a player.   So teams will have to take less than usual to trade down.

Which brings up the point that it would have to be a pretty good deal to trade down.  This year, the Jags have to consider it if someone falls in love with a QB and wants to leapfrog Denver or someone else to get him.  I like Hockenson and all, and he's a good fit, but it's not the end of the draft if we don't land him.  And as I've noted in another thread, Jax has done well in the 2nd round.

So Jax gives up #7, still gets a top 15 pick from Cincy, Miami, or Washington, and swaps our latter 3rd round pick for the other team's 2nd?  Yeah, I'd probably take that, depending on who is still on the board.

---