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2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates

(This post was last modified: 06-15-2019, 07:54 PM by Byron LeftTown.)

The DNC has skewed the first debate forum, placing candidates averaging 2.1% support on the first night and candidates averaging 6.4% support on the second night.
The losers debate features Liz Warren, Cory Booker, Beta O'Rourke and 7 no-names.
The selection process was super-ultra-secret and the result shows no attempt at balance, so we can safely assume an agenda is in play,
So what's the plan? Knock all 10 of them out of further debates when nobody tunes in? Or maybe use the platform to launch one of the 3 to the adult table?
More likely they will use the first debate to destroy a candidate rather than promote one. Could it be the beer-guzzling goddess of native fiction Elizabeth Warren?
Gee, I hope not. I still have that fantasy of me and Liz banging erasers together after science class, after she teaches me about globular warming.
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(06-12-2019, 02:02 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(06-12-2019, 01:57 PM)TJBender Wrote: And Trump is?

No, I don't care much for Biden. He's one of the more centrist candidates coming from the Democratic Party, which I appreciate, but he's about as inspiring as a block of wood. He wouldn't stand a chance of defeating Trump.


Polls 17 months before the election are worth as much as the paper they're written on, and most polls are physically written down anymore. I can almost guarantee you that any poll showing Biden up by that much on Trump is heavily skewed towards the Democratic field. 2-3 points I'd believe, but 13? That question has to be phrased in a way that the AOC crowd can't possibly answer with "I'm staying home unless X wins the nomination."

I don't believe in polls. The fact that I have never been polled makes me believe in them even less.

This. Firstly, most polls poll around 1k people.

Which... is ridiculous considering the amount of voters in the country.

Also... polls are typical taken within "people registered to vote, likely to vote..." not people who will vote, can vote, are going to vote.
And then... people lie... people lie when asked their opinions or who they may vote for. People running polls can lie (Hillary was supposed to win wasn't she?)

Polls are stupid, especially if they don't include a choice for corn or blank #2
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(This post was last modified: 06-19-2019, 12:34 PM by The Real Marty.)

(06-19-2019, 10:43 AM)Kane Wrote:
(06-12-2019, 02:02 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: I don't believe in polls. The fact that I have never been polled makes me believe in them even less.

This. Firstly, most polls poll around 1k people.

Which... is ridiculous considering the amount of voters in the country.

Also... polls are typical taken within "people registered to vote, likely to vote..." not people who will vote, can vote, are going to vote.
And then... people lie... people lie when asked their opinions or who they may vote for. People running polls can lie (Hillary was supposed to win wasn't she?)

Polls are stupid, especially if they don't include a choice for corn or blank #2

Interesting, but I remember the question from college.  

How large a sample size is necessary for a population of 300 million, to get a confidence level of 95% that your margin of error is 3%?  

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

And the answer is, 1,068.   Use the sample size calculator above.  

In fact, 1,068 is a large enough sample size for any size population.  I remember the professor showing us this.  

Of course, the trick is to get a random sample, and that's where the real work comes in, but 1,068 is quite sufficient.
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(06-19-2019, 12:31 PM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(06-19-2019, 10:43 AM)Kane Wrote: This. Firstly, most polls poll around 1k people.

Which... is ridiculous considering the amount of voters in the country.

Also... polls are typical taken within "people registered to vote, likely to vote..." not people who will vote, can vote, are going to vote.
And then... people lie... people lie when asked their opinions or who they may vote for. People running polls can lie (Hillary was supposed to win wasn't she?)

Polls are stupid, especially if they don't include a choice for corn or blank #2

Interesting, but I remember the question from college.  

How large a sample size is necessary for a population of 300 million, to get a confidence level of 95% that your margin of error is 3%?  

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

And the answer is, 1,068.   Use the sample size calculator above.  

In fact, 1,068 is a large enough sample size for any size population.  I remember the professor showing us this.  

Of course, the trick is to get a random sample, and that's where the real work comes in, but 1,068 is quite sufficient.

The math is based on random sampling. When you make a thousand calls to the Upper East Side of Manhattan you don't really get that.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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(06-19-2019, 01:42 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote:
(06-19-2019, 12:31 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: Interesting, but I remember the question from college.  

How large a sample size is necessary for a population of 300 million, to get a confidence level of 95% that your margin of error is 3%?  

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

And the answer is, 1,068.   Use the sample size calculator above.  

In fact, 1,068 is a large enough sample size for any size population.  I remember the professor showing us this.  

Of course, the trick is to get a random sample, and that's where the real work comes in, but 1,068 is quite sufficient.

The math is based on random sampling. When you make a thousand calls to the Upper East Side of Manhattan you don't really get that.

You would get much more name recognition for Bill DeBlasio, though.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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(06-19-2019, 01:42 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote:
(06-19-2019, 12:31 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: Interesting, but I remember the question from college.  

How large a sample size is necessary for a population of 300 million, to get a confidence level of 95% that your margin of error is 3%?  

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

And the answer is, 1,068.   Use the sample size calculator above.  

In fact, 1,068 is a large enough sample size for any size population.  I remember the professor showing us this.  

Of course, the trick is to get a random sample, and that's where the real work comes in, but 1,068 is quite sufficient.

The math is based on random sampling. When you make a thousand calls to the Upper East Side of Manhattan you don't really get that.

You beat me to it.  1068 calls in New York or California isn't going to get the same results as 1068 calls in Texas or Nebraska.

The problem with polling is someone can determine that outcome before it is even conducted based on the question asked and who is asked.  Even if you break it down by county you would get way different results between say Putnam County and Dade County here in Florida.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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(06-19-2019, 01:42 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote:
(06-19-2019, 12:31 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: Interesting, but I remember the question from college.  

How large a sample size is necessary for a population of 300 million, to get a confidence level of 95% that your margin of error is 3%?  

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

And the answer is, 1,068.   Use the sample size calculator above.  

In fact, 1,068 is a large enough sample size for any size population.  I remember the professor showing us this.  

Of course, the trick is to get a random sample, and that's where the real work comes in, but 1,068 is quite sufficient.

The math is based on random sampling. When you make a thousand calls to the Upper East Side of Manhattan you don't really get that.

That's why I said, "...the trick is to get a random sample, and that's where the real work comes in..."

No one could do 1,000 calls to the Upper East Side of Manhattan and call that a random sample without being charged with fraud. 

But if you can get a true random sample that reflects the entire population the survey applies to, 1,068 is plenty.
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(06-19-2019, 02:57 PM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(06-19-2019, 01:42 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: The math is based on random sampling. When you make a thousand calls to the Upper East Side of Manhattan you don't really get that.

That's why I said, "...the trick is to get a random sample, and that's where the real work comes in..."

No one could do 1,000 calls to the Upper East Side of Manhattan and call that a random sample without being charged with fraud. 

But if you can get a true random sample that reflects the entire population the survey applies to, 1,068 is plenty.

Yep, the math works, it's the Population that causes all the trouble.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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(06-19-2019, 10:43 AM)Kane Wrote:
(06-12-2019, 02:02 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: I don't believe in polls. The fact that I have never been polled makes me believe in them even less.

This. Firstly, most polls poll around 1k people.

Which... is ridiculous considering the amount of voters in the country.

Also... polls are typical taken within "people registered to vote, likely to vote..." not people who will vote, can vote, are going to vote.
And then... people lie... people lie when asked their opinions or who they may vote for. People running polls can lie (Hillary was supposed to win wasn't she?)

Polls are stupid, especially if they don't include a choice for corn or blank #2

"Breaking news, CNN is now ready to protect that Corn will win the state of Florida and work steadily towards its landslide victory in the 2020 Presidential election."
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(This post was last modified: 06-20-2019, 10:19 AM by Kane.)

(06-19-2019, 12:31 PM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(06-19-2019, 10:43 AM)Kane Wrote: This. Firstly, most polls poll around 1k people.

Which... is ridiculous considering the amount of voters in the country.

Also... polls are typical taken within "people registered to vote, likely to vote..." not people who will vote, can vote, are going to vote.
And then... people lie... people lie when asked their opinions or who they may vote for. People running polls can lie (Hillary was supposed to win wasn't she?)

Polls are stupid, especially if they don't include a choice for corn or blank #2

Interesting, but I remember the question from college.  

How large a sample size is necessary for a population of 300 million, to get a confidence level of 95% that your margin of error is 3%?  

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

And the answer is, 1,068.   Use the sample size calculator above.  

In fact, 1,068 is a large enough sample size for any size population.  I remember the professor showing us this.  

Of course, the trick is to get a random sample, and that's where the real work comes in, but 1,068 is quite sufficient.

That's cool that someone decided that would be accurate. And maybe it is sometimes.
But it doesn't work for common sense.

1k out of even 1 mil isn't good enough, imo.

It is exactly the same as our representation no longer being valid. Something like 600 people run this country and represent the lives of 300+mil
Mind. Boggling.

That is not proper representation. And neither is polling 1k people that tune in to Fox or NBC to represent the pulse of America

(06-19-2019, 05:23 PM)TJBender Wrote:
(06-19-2019, 10:43 AM)Kane Wrote: This. Firstly, most polls poll around 1k people.

Which... is ridiculous considering the amount of voters in the country.

Also... polls are typical taken within "people registered to vote, likely to vote..." not people who will vote, can vote, are going to vote.
And then... people lie... people lie when asked their opinions or who they may vote for. People running polls can lie (Hillary was supposed to win wasn't she?)

Polls are stupid, especially if they don't include a choice for corn or blank #2

"Breaking news, CNN is now ready to protect that Corn will win the state of Florida and work steadily towards its landslide victory in the 2020 Presidential election."

Such a corntard!

Clearly blank#2 is the answer for this country. 
This country is doomed if it keeps moving toward maize
Reply


(06-20-2019, 10:18 AM)Kane Wrote:
(06-19-2019, 12:31 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: Interesting, but I remember the question from college.  

How large a sample size is necessary for a population of 300 million, to get a confidence level of 95% that your margin of error is 3%?  

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

And the answer is, 1,068.   Use the sample size calculator above.  

In fact, 1,068 is a large enough sample size for any size population.  I remember the professor showing us this.  

Of course, the trick is to get a random sample, and that's where the real work comes in, but 1,068 is quite sufficient.

That's cool that someone decided that would be accurate. And maybe it is sometimes.
But it doesn't work for common sense.

1k out of even 1 mil isn't good enough, imo.

It is exactly the same as our representation no longer being valid. Something like 600 people run this country and represent the lives of 300+mil
Mind. Boggling.

That is not proper representation. And neither is polling 1k people that tune in to Fox or NBC to represent the pulse of America

(06-19-2019, 05:23 PM)TJBender Wrote: "Breaking news, CNN is now ready to protect that Corn will win the state of Florida and work steadily towards its landslide victory in the 2020 Presidential election."

Such a corntard!

Clearly blank#2 is the answer for this country. 
This country is doomed if it keeps moving toward maize

You have my ear.
Reply


(06-20-2019, 10:31 AM)homebiscuit Wrote:
(06-20-2019, 10:18 AM)Kane Wrote: That's cool that someone decided that would be accurate. And maybe it is sometimes.
But it doesn't work for common sense.

1k out of even 1 mil isn't good enough, imo.

It is exactly the same as our representation no longer being valid. Something like 600 people run this country and represent the lives of 300+mil
Mind. Boggling.

That is not proper representation. And neither is polling 1k people that tune in to Fox or NBC to represent the pulse of America


Such a corntard!

Clearly blank#2 is the answer for this country. 
This country is doomed if it keeps moving toward maize

You have my ear.

you win
Reply


(06-20-2019, 10:18 AM)Kane Wrote:
(06-19-2019, 12:31 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: Interesting, but I remember the question from college.  

How large a sample size is necessary for a population of 300 million, to get a confidence level of 95% that your margin of error is 3%?  

https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

And the answer is, 1,068.   Use the sample size calculator above.  

In fact, 1,068 is a large enough sample size for any size population.  I remember the professor showing us this.  

Of course, the trick is to get a random sample, and that's where the real work comes in, but 1,068 is quite sufficient.

That's cool that someone decided that would be accurate. And maybe it is sometimes.
But it doesn't work for common sense.

1k out of even 1 mil isn't good enough, imo.

It is exactly the same as our representation no longer being valid. Something like 600 people run this country and represent the lives of 300+mil
Mind. Boggling.

That is not proper representation. And neither is polling 1k people that tune in to Fox or NBC to represent the pulse of America

(06-19-2019, 05:23 PM)TJBender Wrote: "Breaking news, CNN is now ready to protect that Corn will win the state of Florida and work steadily towards its landslide victory in the 2020 Presidential election."

Such a corntard!

Clearly blank#2 is the answer for this country. 
This country is doomed if it keeps moving toward maize

#2 is what happens after you eat enough corn. It will always come in second place. Corn for President!

Props on the ear pun, though. My support for President-in-waiting Corn wavered momentarily.
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Kind of disappointed I didn't see anything posted on last nights comedy show (Democratic Debate). What's next, black face and afros to hit the next demographic? Just when I think it can't get any more idiotic. LOL
[Image: Ben-Roethlisberger_Lerentee-McCary-Sack_...ayoffs.jpg]
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(06-27-2019, 08:11 AM)B2hibry Wrote: Kind of disappointed I didn't see anything posted on last nights comedy show (Democratic Debate). What's next, black face and afros to hit the next demographic? Just when I think it can't get any more idiotic. LOL

Let me sum it up for you.  What they said was, the biggest threat to the country is capitalism, and they want to tax the rich and give all the money to their most loyal special interest groups.
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I heard on the radio that one of the candidates was riding in a bus with a banner which read “Tax the rich so we can all live better.”

Anyway, from what little I’ve read, it was a display of who could speak the best Spanish. That would certainly explain why they don’t want to fund border security. I hear they also laid blame for the tragic drowning of the father and child on Trump. Yeah, I don’t get it either.
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Honest question. Can you imagine any of those candidates sitting across the table from Xi?
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(06-29-2019, 09:11 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: Honest question. Can  you imagine any of those candidates sitting across the table from Xi?

I can't imagine any of those candidates sitting at the kiddie table during Thanksgiving! Of course, they all probably banned the Holiday in their households.
[Image: Ben-Roethlisberger_Lerentee-McCary-Sack_...ayoffs.jpg]
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(06-29-2019, 09:22 AM)B2hibry Wrote:
(06-29-2019, 09:11 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: Honest question. Can  you imagine any of those candidates sitting across the table from Xi?

I can't imagine any of those candidates sitting at the kiddie table during Thanksgiving! 

If that's so then God bless those poor kids.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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I do not trust polls. That's how we got Boaty McBoatface and Nazi Mountain Dew.
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