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Dakota · 01-31-2014, 07:45 PM

I hope the Jags simply trade down. Unlike a lot of people here, I don't think the top few players are "can't miss" prospects. I really don't think the gap is that big at all, if any. I would have been fine picking mid round this year. Hopefully a team is in love with a guy on the board at 3, and the Jags can pick up extra picks and move down a bit.

I'll go out on a limb and say that the OROY and DROY from next year's class won't come from the top 5 picks. I could be wrong, but I'm willing to go out on a limb about it at this point.

What lies behind us, and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

flgatorsandjags · 01-31-2014, 07:50 PM

Quote:I hope the Jags simply trade down. Unlike a lot of people here, I don't think the top few players are "can't miss" prospects. I really don't think the gap is that big at all, if any. I would have been fine picking mid round this year. Hopefully a team is in love with a guy on the board at 3, and the Jags can pick up extra picks and move down a bit.

I'll go out on a limb and say that the OROY and DROY from next year's class won't come from the top 5 picks. I could be wrong, but I'm willing to go out on a limb about it at this point.

you dont think Clowney is a cant miss?

Dakota · 01-31-2014, 08:58 PM

Quote:you dont think Clowney is a cant miss?

No, I don't. He's a coin flip. Does he have all the tools and whatnot? Of course he does. Will he leave the distractions of life behind to make those tools meaningful for a team? I'm not sure, but the last year hasn't made me feel a whole lot better about it.

Personally, I don't know if he has the mental makeup to deal with success. A lot of people don't. Not a knock on his ability at all, It's more a question of whether he can handle success. More people than you think simply cannot handle success. He has displayed red flags about that very thing in my eyes. I could be wrong, but we're all guessing at this point, right?

What lies behind us, and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

Eric1 · 01-31-2014, 09:26 PM

Quote:Blackmon isn't being traded. Too young, too talented even despite all of his troubles to just trade him away for peanuts.

I'm so glad some of you aren't the GM. This team wouldn't go anywhere

This exactly.

There's only two options that will happen here. Either Blackmon shows up ready to go next season and helps the team. Or he has another slip up and the League ends him. Those are the only possible options in my opinion.

~~JaguarsWoman~~ · 02-01-2014, 03:31 AM

Quote:You don't think Clowney is a can't miss?

After seeing what happens when a defensive lineman has commitment issues (Terrance Knighton and Jeremy Mincey are gone because of that) why should we take a chance on a player who publicly admitted he was a slacker in practice and had a horrible junior season because of his lazy attitude? He is far from a can't-miss prospect for a team that gave up on two players with commitment issues last year.

~~Solid Snake~~ · 02-01-2014, 09:44 AM

JW and TMD can be annoying at times but I have no beef with either. People are too serious around here.

rufftime · 02-01-2014, 11:52 AM

Quote:I hope the Jags simply trade down. Unlike a lot of people here, I don't think the top few players are "can't miss" prospects. I really don't think the gap is that big at all, if any. I would have been fine picking mid round this year. Hopefully a team is in love with a guy on the board at 3, and the Jags can pick up extra picks and move down a bit.

I'll go out on a limb and say that the OROY and DROY from next year's class won't come from the top 5 picks. I could be wrong, but I'm willing to go out on a limb about it at this point.

This is actually a pretty safe bet.

Usually a LB that racks up a million tackles wins DROY, and there are no LB prospects expected to go top 5.

Typically a QB does win OROY, but there are 4-8 good prospects depending on who you ask.

If I were Dave I'd want my pick of all the QB prospects available, but even if he snags one at 3 there is never a guarantee he will be the best.

SuperJville · 02-01-2014, 12:11 PM

Quote:

I'll go out on a limb and say that the OROY and DROY from next year's class won't come from the top 5 picks. I could be wrong, but I'm willing to go out on a limb about it at this point.

That's not really going out on a limb as you may think it is.

You're putting 5 player's success against over 200... Yes - a couple of the other 200 have a very good chance of being as good if not better.

Question is, can you identify them?

The better question is: In what range of 5 picks do you think the OROY and DROY will come? In what range do you think you will find the most players that went on to have multiple pro bowls and HOF careers?

1-5?

6-10?

11-15?

etc.

The top picks are valuable for a reason. There's a reason teams trade UP sometimes ya know. It's a gamble, I agree... that's why I don't pretend to know what should be done or what the Jags will do. Our scouts and GM will do their homework and rank players. If one is worthy of the #3 pick, and noone is willing to trade up for him for what we want, then we'll take him, simple as that.

SuperJville · 02-01-2014, 12:16 PM

Some people are almost afraid to take some players. We have 10 picks. That's a lot. Call me crazy, but I don't want another 15 rookies on this team.

Being at #3 can be a good thing.

If we find that at #39, there's at least 8-10 guys left that we have graded similarly, then yes - trade down 5 spots and grab your guy and you get an extra pick.

But some people talk as if trading down out of the top 5 is almost always the right thing to do. I personally think Bridgewater is worth a top 3 pick, as is Clowney.

And that is without a doubt. Hopefully one of them falls to us. Manziel would be exciting, but I think he's a boom or bust.

Dakota · 02-01-2014, 12:54 PM

Quote:That's not really going out on a limb as you may think it is.

You're putting 5 player's success against over 200... Yes - a couple of the other 200 have a very good chance of being as good if not better.

Question is, can you identify them?

The better question is: In what range of 5 picks do you think the OROY and DROY will come? In what range do you think you will find the most players that went on to have multiple pro bowls and HOF careers?

1-5?

6-10?

11-15?

etc.

The top picks are valuable for a reason. There's a reason teams trade UP sometimes ya know. It's a gamble, I agree... that's why I don't pretend to know what should be done or what the Jags will do. Our scouts and GM will do their homework and rank players. If one is worthy of the #3 pick, and noone is willing to trade up for him for what we want, then we'll take him, simple as that.

You got the point, yet missed the point altogether. If top picks are so valuable, why aren't the top picks always the ROY winners? I thought it was a pretty simple concept.

Asking me to tell you where they will be picked is just making my case for me. Nobody knows, and if they did, those players would indeed be top 5 picks. See how that works?

What lies behind us, and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

SuperJville · 02-01-2014, 02:25 PM

Quote:You got the point, yet missed the point altogether. If top picks are so valuable, why aren't the top picks always the ROY winners? I thought it was a pretty simple concept.

Asking me to tell you where they will be picked is just making my case for me. Nobody knows, and if they did, those players would indeed be top 5 picks. See how that works?

No, you're missing the point. It's not a lottery. If you were FORCED to answer my question about where you think the OROY will come from (in ranges of 5), you would pick 1-5. Anybody would.

You have a better chance of drafting a HOF player if you're picking 1st, for example. It doesn't mean you WILL, but your chances are higher.

History has proven that. QBs drafted high (because they're evaluated to be good) tend to do better than QBs that are drafted low.

Yes, there are outliers, before you start talking about Tom Brady.

But to imply that you just have no idea whatsoever where the best players are going to go, is silly.

The higher the draft choice, the more valuable it is, because you get access to pick whoever you want. Simple as that. I agree in certain cases about trading down, but we already have 10 picks. I don't want a roster with 15 rookies playing next year.

Almost every single player has questions marks beside his name. No prospect is perfect. That doesn't mean you should be SCARED of drafting in the top 5.

The draft is NOT a lottery.

SuperJville · 02-01-2014, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Asking me to tell you where they will be picked is just making my case for me. Nobody knows, and if they did, those players would indeed be top 5 picks. See how that works?

There are no absolutes in life. Where are the best long term players MOST LIKELY going to be drafted? Higher or Lower?

SuperJville · 02-01-2014, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Personally, I don't know if he has the mental makeup to deal with success. A lot of people don't. Not a knock on his ability at all, It's more a question of whether he can handle success. More people than you think simply cannot handle success. He has displayed red flags about that very thing in my eyes. I could be wrong, but we're all guessing at this point, right?

Well, luckily our staff doesn't have to just guess like we do. They can spend a lot of man-hours talking to friends, family, coaches, acquantances, and Jadaveon himself.

I guarantee you Clowney goes in the top 5.

~~JaguarsWoman~~ · 02-01-2014, 02:57 PM

Quote:JW and TMD can be annoying at times but I have no beef with either. People are too serious around here.

A lot of people don't understand how my brain operates, so they get mad at me for being different. If everybody could be autistic for a day, I would have a lot more friends.