If it drags out... I’m rooting for Khan himself to call the plus.  

“”Hey Gardner, give it to Leonard.   Ok, second and 9, hand it to Leonard again.  Okay, we’re in a bind here.  3rd and 8.  Tell DJ to go out for a pass and throw it to him.

I know you are kidding, but the resident crew that complained all year about some mythical "run, run, pass" offensive strategy they thought  they perceived should be aware that the Jaguars passed on 61% of their first downs in 2019.

That's the twelfth most in the entire league. More than KC, PHI, DAL, HOU, GB, NE, SF, BALT, and several others. 

Fans are so quick to blame playcalling and scheme for poor player execution that these perceptions become very skewed. All three were factors in the Jags struggles last season, but the notion they didn't throw on 1st down is inaccurate.

12th overall means little. You have to consider situational rankings saw when in first half, when score was still close or when in the red zone. Certain game situations can skew overall rankings.

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I know you are kidding, but the resident crew that complained all year about some mythical "run, run, pass" offensive strategy they thought  they perceived should be aware that the Jaguars passed on 61% of their first downs in 2019.

That's the twelfth most in the entire league. More than KC, PHI, DAL, HOU, GB, NE, SF, BALT, and several others. 

Fans are so quick to blame playcalling and scheme for poor player execution that these perceptions become very skewed. All three were factors in the Jags struggles last season, but the notion they didn't throw on 1st down is inaccurate.

12th overall means little. You have to consider situational rankings saw when in first half, when score was still close or when in the red zone. Certain game situations can skew overall rankings.

It doesn't mean little in terms of disproving a poorly informed common refrain on this message board. 

I'm not saying the Jags didn't ever call runs at bad times in 2019.  I'm saying it didn't happen nearly as many times as folks like to complain it did.

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If it drags out... I’m rooting for Khan himself to call the plus.  

“”Hey Gardner, give it to Leonard.   Ok, second and 9, hand it to Leonard again.  Okay, we’re in a bind here.  3rd and 8.  Tell DJ to go out for a pass and throw it to him.

I know you are kidding, but the resident crew that complained all year about some mythical "run, run, pass" offensive strategy they thought  they perceived should be aware that the Jaguars passed on 61% of their first downs in 2019.

That's the twelfth most in the entire league. More than KC, PHI, DAL, HOU, GB, NE, SF, BALT, and several others. 

Fans are so quick to blame playcalling and scheme for poor player execution that these perceptions become very skewed. All three were factors in the Jags struggles last season, but the notion they didn't throw on 1st down is inaccurate.

Yea well if my choice was always either 2nd and 8 or worse if i ran on first down,  I probably would call more pass plays too.  Performance or lack thereof can also dictate play calling.  What was the jags average second down yards to go when they ran on first down if ya got those stats i would be interested in a discussion.

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I know you are kidding, but the resident crew that complained all year about some mythical "run, run, pass" offensive strategy they thought  they perceived should be aware that the Jaguars passed on 61% of their first downs in 2019.

That's the twelfth most in the entire league. More than KC, PHI, DAL, HOU, GB, NE, SF, BALT, and several others. 

Fans are so quick to blame playcalling and scheme for poor player execution that these perceptions become very skewed. All three were factors in the Jags struggles last season, but the notion they didn't throw on 1st down is inaccurate.

Yea well if my choice was always either 2nd and 8 or worse if i ran on first down,  I probably would call more pass plays too.  Performance or lack thereof can also dictate play calling.  What was the jags average second down yards to go when they ran on first down if ya got those stats i would be interested in a discussion.

I don't have those numbers. Wish I did. 

There were certainly plenty of first down runs that didn't go anywhere - and much of that goes back to scheme and dictating a loaded box by putting 7 guys on the line and only 1 or 2 receivers wide.  The Jags did that a lot in 2019 and it resulted in Fournette facing a ton of early contact. (he averaged 1.4 yds before contact on the year)  Nonetheless they succeeded on first down runs enough to maintain a balance and a respectable 4.3 YPA number for LF. 

Interestingly enough, DeFilippo actually tried running Fournette out of some slightly more spread out formations early in the season but it was going nowhere. It wasn't until he started adding multiple TEs as blockers that things started to click in the run game. To me, this is an indictment on both the offensive line and on the back. The line wasn't giving him lanes with just 5 guys blocking and LF wasn't finding the creases when they were there. 

We can pick apart the numbers all day and speculate as to WHY Flip passed on 1st down frequently, but the fact remains that the Jags indeed threw the ball on first down more than 20 other teams last season. Which was my entire point.

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Interestingly enough, DeFilippo actually tried running Fournette out of some slightly more spread out formations early in the season but it was going nowhere. It wasn't until he started adding multiple TEs as blockers that things started to click in the run game.

I'm not sure how this is supported by evidence considering that his YPC dropped precipitously each month of the season. Unless you mean VERY early in the season...like less than the whole first game.

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Interestingly enough, DeFilippo actually tried running Fournette out of some slightly more spread out formations early in the season but it was going nowhere. It wasn't until he started adding multiple TEs as blockers that things started to click in the run game.

I'm not sure how this is supported by evidence considering that his YPC dropped precipitously each month of the season. Unless you mean VERY early in the season...like less than the whole first game.

I just went back and screenshot every LF run out of 3 or 4 wide sets from weeks one and two. 

It was exactly 13 times - or 46% of Fournette's attempts. I have the pics if you need them.

I'd guess it's more of the same in week 3 because I remember in wk 4 at DEN Fournette started breaking off big runs out of power sets and I think that led to the shift in strategy.

Edit:

Who analyzes yards per carry by “month?”
LOL

Anyway - they did make a change to more power sets as I’ve illustrated and it did result in more big runs in a number of games. Personally I think the change was too radical and they should have continued running from 3 wide.

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Jags rush attempts % by personnel groupings (qb runs are unfortunately included)

11 personnel: (3 wrs)
51% of attempts (199)
4.9ypc
44% success rate

12 personnel (2 WRs, 2 TEs)
31% of attempts (122)
4 ypc
39% success rate

13 personnel (1 WR,3 TEs)
12% of attempts (47 attempts) (2nd highest in the league)
3.6 ypc
38% success rate

10 personnel (4 WRs)
3% of attempts (11)
4.5 ypc
45% success rate

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We needed a Greg Jones

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We needed a Greg Jones

Why? 

Fournette doesn’t follow his lead block half the time anyway.

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Jags rush attempts % by personnel groupings (qb runs are unfortunately included)

11 personnel: (3 wrs)
51% of attempts (199)
4.9ypc
44% success rate

12 personnel (2 WRs, 2 TEs)
31% of attempts (122)
4 ypc
39% success rate

13 personnel (1 WR,3 TEs)
12% of attempts (47 attempts) (2nd highest in the league)
3.6 ypc
38% success rate

10 personnel (4 WRs)
3% of attempts (11)
4.5 ypc
45% success rate

This was my point. I wasn't debating that we shifted from more 11 personnel to heavier sets I didn't track those numbers. I was skeptical that changing to heavier sets increased the running games efficiency, and that appears to be worth questioning for sure.

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This is the best case scenario I think. Gruden > McAdoo >>>> Linehan for me.

https://twitter.com/MikeGarafolo/status/...2145017857

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I’ve been pulling for Gruden. He would really help Minshew.

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Jags rush attempts % by personnel groupings (qb runs are unfortunately included)

11 personnel: (3 wrs)
51% of attempts (199)
4.9ypc
44% success rate

12 personnel (2 WRs, 2 TEs)
31% of attempts (122)
4 ypc
39% success rate

13 personnel (1 WR,3 TEs)
12% of attempts (47 attempts) (2nd highest in the league)
3.6 ypc
38% success rate

10 personnel (4 WRs)
3% of attempts (11)
4.5 ypc
45% success rate

This was my point. I wasn't debating that we shifted from more 11 personnel to heavier sets I didn't track those numbers. I was skeptical that changing to heavier sets increased the running games efficiency, and that appears to be worth questioning for sure.

I don't think it helped efficiency, but it began the trend of Fournette getting those chunk yardage runs late in games. 

And I thought that they began using it much more after Denver because of that, but the numbers Jack listed indicate I was incorrect. They continued to mix in the 3 wide runs more than I thought they did.  Perhaps it was only a brief trend. 



On thread topic: Good to hear about the Gruden interview. I remember several folks listing him on their wishlist a while back.

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Yes to Gruden.

You are really good if you are able to lead Andy Dalton to three straight playoff appearances.

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https://twitter.com/Demetrius82/status/1...24928?s=20

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This is the best case scenario I think. Gruden > McAdoo >>>> Linehan for me.

https://twitter.com/MikeGarafolo/status/...2145017857

I’ve got them ranked the same. McAdoo was excoriated by the NY media for benching Eli but history eventually vindicated the decision. Eli needs to hang it up.

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"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

https://twitter.com/Demetrius82/status/1...24928?s=20

His offense from 2011 to 2013 with the bengals as oc were # 18, 12, and 6 in points scored from what i could tell.

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Gruden >> McAdoo. #1 choice for sure

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Gruden could see it as a future HC gig too.

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Gruden could see it as a future HC gig too.

Yeah I could see Gruden thinking along those lines since Shad has already done it before.

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