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Stock Market Under Trump


This is looking like a good buy opportunity for some sectors.  While I normally like the technology sector I would stay out right now as far as new buys.  For now I am still holding, but I have stop losses put in with my brokerage.  I would stay FAR away from anything related to travel.  Energy and materials might yield some decent gains as well as healthcare.  It's too late to jump into treasuries (bonds) right now if you didn't already have a portion of your portfolio in them.

The major drop that we have seen over the last 2 days was pretty much needed and should reach the bottom soon.  I still predict a move to the upside by the end of the week, though there is no way we come back to where we were last Friday.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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(02-25-2020, 05:09 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: This is looking like a good buy opportunity for some sectors.  While I normally like the technology sector I would stay out right now as far as new buys.  For now I am still holding, but I have stop losses put in with my brokerage.  I would stay FAR away from anything related to travel.  Energy and materials might yield some decent gains as well as healthcare.  It's too late to jump into treasuries (bonds) right now if you didn't already have a portion of your portfolio in them.

The major drop that we have seen over the last 2 days was pretty much needed and should reach the bottom soon.  I still predict a move to the upside by the end of the week, though there is no way we come back to where we were last Friday.

Remember the "flash crash?"  May 6, 2010.  A lot of people had stop loss orders and had their stock sold automatically.  Some of them even wound up automatically selling at a price below their stop loss order, because when the order to sell was initiated, there were not enough buy orders at that price to get the stock sold.  Then at the end of the day, the market was back where it started.  Except that some people had lost a lot of money because of stop loss orders.
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(02-25-2020, 03:37 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote:
(02-25-2020, 02:18 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Cruise Lines --- Buy 4 days get 1 month free (when they keep you quarantined on the ship)



My vote can be bought -- $500 ..... just tell me which bubble to fill in.   I also offer a $1,000 package deal for the entire ballot.

And by voting Dem you can do it dozens of times!!!


Plus, there's a great sign-up bonus for anyone who can speak Russian!
When you get into the endzone, act like you've been there before.
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Never felt so happy to just lose $1,000 in 401k. Definitely a good day, comparatively speaking ---- time to party !!! Smile
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(02-26-2020, 06:33 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Never felt so happy to just lose $1,000 in 401k.   Definitely a good day, comparatively speaking ---- time to party !!!  Smile

You lost money? You weren't moving and shaking fast enough! You gotta stay in front of this turmoil Hurricane.  Very disappointed in you this evening.
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So what is rock bottom? Who decides when the market is corrected enough? Does it continue to drop 1,000+ a day until a vaccine is released until it reaches 0?

Ouch!
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DOW, S&P, NASDAQ all down about 4.5% today.
That's a serious beating.
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(02-25-2020, 05:57 PM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(02-25-2020, 05:09 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: This is looking like a good buy opportunity for some sectors.  While I normally like the technology sector I would stay out right now as far as new buys.  For now I am still holding, but I have stop losses put in with my brokerage.  I would stay FAR away from anything related to travel.  Energy and materials might yield some decent gains as well as healthcare.  It's too late to jump into treasuries (bonds) right now if you didn't already have a portion of your portfolio in them.

The major drop that we have seen over the last 2 days was pretty much needed and should reach the bottom soon.  I still predict a move to the upside by the end of the week, though there is no way we come back to where we were last Friday.

Remember the "flash crash?"  May 6, 2010.  A lot of people had stop loss orders and had their stock sold automatically.  Some of them even wound up automatically selling at a price below their stop loss order, because when the order to sell was initiated, there were not enough buy orders at that price to get the stock sold.  Then at the end of the day, the market was back where it started.  Except that some people had lost a lot of money because of stop loss orders.

 I got "kicked out" yesterday on pretty much all of my positions (for the most part) but still took some profits.  I am going to wait on the sidelines with cash at least into next week.  I still hold small positions in some sectors/index ETF's which I am going to leave alone.  What I have left in should make it back to pre-correction levels somewhere around the end of Q2 (my prediction).  I didn't "lose" a whole lot since I have been long on my investments, but I could have done better had I cut my losses sooner.

I would caution against any buying or selling tomorrow (Friday) since there is un-certainty going into a weekend.  I would wait to see what the market does on Monday before I considered getting back in.  Depending on how the market moves I might consider a position in the financial sector as well as energy.  Both in my opinion could do well after this correction.  Of course, consumer staples would be a "safe" sector to buy, but won't yield very high returns.  Depending on how the market recovers, I will eventually get back into the tech sector.  My reasoning is that the 10 year treasury yield is very low which means interest rates will remain low or go even lower.

One thing that I'm looking at is oil is down quite a bit and my dip down a bit lower.  Since China and Italy (perhaps other countries) are doing the "quarantine at home" thing the demand for oil has dropped but will eventually trend back up.

The other thing that I'm looking at is REIT's  since interest rates are so low right now and there is a high demand for housing.  This should move up as well as the financial sector with rates being so low.  People are going to borrow more money.

I would stay away from the consumer discretionary sector since this sector has a lot of travel related stocks.  Anyone that thinks that buying stock in a cruise line, hotel chain or airline right now is a good opportunity isn't very smart (investment wise)... just my opinion.  It also is a group which contains a lot of retail stuff that is going to be impacted by this correction (think toys, clothing, gaming consoles, etc.).

I guess my point is, look to the future not the present.  Think long term (at least over a year and more so 5 years) rather than short term (within 6 months or a year).  Sure certain stocks will spike up in the short term, but if that's what you're playing you aren't "investing" you are pretty much "trading".  Big difference.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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Not going to lie...this week hurts but hey, it's a marathon not a sprint. If the past is any indication, we should see pretty good returns once this media-driven panic subsides.
[Image: Ben-Roethlisberger_Lerentee-McCary-Sack_...ayoffs.jpg]
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(02-27-2020, 05:37 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: So what is rock bottom? Who decides when the market is corrected enough? Does it continue to drop 1,000+ a day until a vaccine is released until it reaches 0?

Ouch!

Watch the market over tomorrow and Monday.  My best guess is tomorrow (Friday) it will end up pretty flat.  There will be a lot of volatility as there has been this week, but that's mostly day traders.  Keep track of the volume.  Most of the "big money" has already taken profits and re-balanced for the most part. 

If there is no "bad news" over the weekend look for a "rally" of sorts with a lot of volume in the morning on Monday.  That pretty much signals "big money" buying into positions.  If the volume isn't there, be cautious, it's probably just the day traders again.

My prediction is if things are "good" or "right" there will be a slight gain on the DOW Monday and Tuesday will kick off a rally.

This is just my experience and what I have observed investing for 30+ years.  I am by no means a professional.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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I don't think there will be a significant rally anytime soon. An occasional 500-pt rebound day, sure, but until this is solved, many major industries are at risk.
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(02-27-2020, 06:37 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: I don't think there will be a significant rally anytime soon.  An occasional 500-pt rebound day, sure, but until this is solved, many major industries are at risk.

Correct.  However, a string of 500pt days is certainly possible and is probably what is going to happen.  There will be some dips in between.  As I said before, I don't expect the market to reach the levels that we were at until at least the end of Q2 which makes things interesting (politically).  If the markets are nearing or breaching all-time highs at that point (end of June) going into the election, it's going to be good for Trump.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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(02-25-2020, 06:00 PM)Sneakers Wrote:
(02-25-2020, 03:37 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: And by voting Dem you can do it dozens of times!!!


Plus, there's a great sign-up bonus for anyone who can speak Russian!
I’ve been told I look Russian.  As long as they pre pay, I’ll take the money.   Just so long as I get the cash first.  That way I can still vote like a sane person.
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So... down another 1,000 points this morning. I remember at the depths of the financial crisis, when the Dow hit around 8,000, and things were really scary, Warren Buffett said "now is the time to buy..." It went down to 6,600 as I recall, and that was the bottom. So anyone who heeded his advice would have made a lot of money.

No one can call the bottom except by sheer luck, and no one can predict what the market will do in the short run, meaning less than at least a year or two. Long run, the market always beats everything. Because business beats everything, and there is nothing as powerful as human greed and ambition and ingenuity.
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If you have a portfolio you aren't actively contributing to, riding the highs and lows of the market seems counter productive. You may lower your cost basis by picking up additional shares with dividend reinvestment, but if you make gains only to be wiped out in a week by a catastrophic event is somewhat frightening.
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(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020, 12:16 PM by HURRICANE!!!.)

(02-26-2020, 10:18 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(02-26-2020, 06:33 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Never felt so happy to just lose $1,000 in 401k.   Definitely a good day, comparatively speaking ---- time to party !!!  Smile

You lost money? You weren't moving and shaking fast enough! You gotta stay in front of this turmoil Hurricane.  Very disappointed in you this evening.

Fidelity warned me about excessive trading and stated if i make another trade in Q1 then I'm restricted from making any trades for 12 months.  Luckily I went heavier in bonds (40%) back on Jan 31 when the market tanked on the 1st caronavirus fear so i'm kind of in trading jail until April 1 --- this may work out because of the downturn than perhaps i can get aggressive during the upturn next quarter
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(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020, 12:37 PM by The Real Marty.)

(02-28-2020, 12:06 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: If you have a portfolio you aren't actively contributing to, riding the highs and lows of the market seems counter productive. You may lower your cost basis by picking up additional shares with dividend reinvestment, but if you make gains only to be wiped out in a week by a catastrophic event is somewhat frightening.

It's not counterproductive.  If you just buy and hold, and never sell, you will do very well, because in the short term, the market will fluctuate up and down, but in the long run, it will always go up.  It's like riding a roller coaster.  You have to have a little nerve.  That's all.  

The reason you will always do better in the stock market than anywhere else is because the stock market represents ownership shares in businesses, and businesses are always a better investment than anything else.  People will always be figuring out how to make new products that people want, and how to make money by the boatload, and you will do very well piggy-backing on the brains and ambition and ingenuity of those people.

(02-28-2020, 12:12 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:
(02-26-2020, 10:18 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: You lost money? You weren't moving and shaking fast enough! You gotta stay in front of this turmoil Hurricane.  Very disappointed in you this evening.

Fidelity warned me about excessive trading and stated if i make another trade in Q1 then I'm restricted from making any trades for 12 months.  Luckily I went heavier in bonds (40%) back on Jan 31 when the market tanked on the 1st caronavirus fear so i'm kind of in trading jail until April 1 --- this may work out because of the downturn than perhaps i can get aggressive during the upturn next quarter

Are you trading in a retirement account or something?  Why would they be warning you about excessive trading?
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Another huge spanking in the markets. Look at how NYC monkey-hammered gold and silver. Silver down 7%! Can't have the rubes piling into a safe harbor as they watch their portfolio drain away.
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(02-28-2020, 12:33 PM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(02-28-2020, 12:12 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Fidelity warned me about excessive trading and stated if i make another trade in Q1 then I'm restricted from making any trades for 12 months.  Luckily I went heavier in bonds (40%) back on Jan 31 when the market tanked on the 1st caronavirus fear so i'm kind of in trading jail until April 1 --- this may work out because of the downturn than perhaps i can get aggressive during the upturn next quarter

Are you trading in a retirement account or something?  Why would they be warning you about excessive trading?

It's only 401k in Fidelity.  The message stated that excessive trades go against the integrity and purpose of the funds (or something like that).  In other words, they don't want people running to the bond fund for a few days to shelter their $$ from market hits then pop their money back into Large Cap funds (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft) during upswings.
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(02-28-2020, 11:41 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: So... down another 1,000 points this morning.   I remember at the depths of the financial crisis, when the Dow hit around 8,000, and things were really scary, Warren Buffett said "now is the time to buy..." It went down to 6,600 as I recall, and that was the bottom.   So anyone who heeded his advice would have made a lot of money.

No one can call the bottom except by sheer luck, and no one can predict what the market will do in the short run, meaning less than at least a year or two.  Long run, the market always beats everything.  Because business beats everything, and there is nothing as powerful as human greed and ambition and ingenuity.

The market is kind of acting like it's searching for the bottom.  It can go either way at this point.  The last hour of trading should be interesting.  As I type this (2:38 PM Eastern) the DOW is "only" down around 660 points.  There have been a lot of wild and crazy swings all day, but we never got positive.  The last hour of trading can cause a major swing one way or the other.  I'm still hoping and predicting that it swings more positive and ends up closer to being flat.  If it goes the other way (a very good possibility) we may not see much in the way of a recovery until well into next week.

I am still in on a few things that I have been long on and am still not going to touch those.  Depending on how things go I may consider getting back in sometime in the next week or so.  In the meantime I'll sit on the sideline with cash making very little.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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