As to the question, inductive reasoning applies here. It's on record to quote me if I am incorrect (but I seriously doubt it).

If we "reverse course" and "open the country up", many states and most foreign countries will stay "closed." Those places that are "closed" will probably see significantly less new cases than the places that aren't.  

But more new cases doesn't necessarily mean more deaths.  
Again, so long as there is at least one spare ventilator in the area, we can look at the number of deaths and say "this was the best we could do." But as soon as an area runs out of ventilators, extra people will die, and we will know that it was not "the best we could do".

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

Does anyone know-

During yesterday's task force press conference, Dr Birx said that the big question is, how many people have gotten the virus without showing symptoms. We're only testing people who have shown symptoms. If there are loads of people who have never been tested because they haven't shown symptoms, but who have recovered already and have immunity as a result, that would be tremendously good news, because that would tell us that we are building a herd immunity and the virus would peak and decline a lot sooner.

So, my question is, does anyone know what they are doing to find out the answer to this?

---

Does anyone know-

During yesterday's task force press conference, Dr Birx said that the big question is, how many people have gotten the virus without showing symptoms.   We're only testing people who have shown symptoms.  If there are loads of people who have never been tested because they haven't shown symptoms, but who have recovered already and have immunity as a result, that would be tremendously good news, because that would tell us that we are building a herd immunity and the virus would peak and decline a lot sooner.

So, my question is, does anyone know what they are doing to find out the answer to this?

You can't find that out without testing every person in the country, so they aren't doing anything to find it out. I talked some about this earlier and it's why the early models are flawed.

---

“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

I took the GRE. I don't remember what I scored, but it was good enough to get me into law school when factoring my GPA.

That suggests your score was 85th percentile or higher. So was mine. Did you end up going to law school?

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

Does anyone know-

During yesterday's task force press conference, Dr Birx said that the big question is, how many people have gotten the virus without showing symptoms.   We're only testing people who have shown symptoms.  If there are loads of people who have never been tested because they haven't shown symptoms, but who have recovered already and have immunity as a result, that would be tremendously good news, because that would tell us that we are building a herd immunity and the virus would peak and decline a lot sooner.

So, my question is, does anyone know what they are doing to find out the answer to this?

I said that from the beginning. The actual CFR will never be known. It's definitely less than 1% with all the asymptomatic people... and people that are just straight immune.

---

Does anyone know-

During yesterday's task force press conference, Dr Birx said that the big question is, how many people have gotten the virus without showing symptoms.   We're only testing people who have shown symptoms.  If there are loads of people who have never been tested because they haven't shown symptoms, but who have recovered already and have immunity as a result, that would be tremendously good news, because that would tell us that we are building a herd immunity and the virus would peak and decline a lot sooner.

So, my question is, does anyone know what they are doing to find out the answer to this?

You can't find that out without testing every person in the country, so they aren't doing anything to find it out. I talked some about this earlier and it's why the early models are flawed.

You don't have to test everyone to predict herd immunity.  If you have a dependable test for the antibodies or serum, you could test a representative sample of people who didn't report symptoms, and infer the general population's herd immunity.  They are working on the test now.  When it's ready, it's guaranteed that the CDC will roll it out in some well controlled studies in certain areas.

But if you want a more specific test to give certain people a "back to normal life" certificate, you have to test each person.  We may do that too, depending on how cheap the test is and how slow the progress to herd immunity is.

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

I took the GRE. I don't remember what I scored, but it was good enough to get me into law school when factoring my GPA.

That suggests your score was 85th percentile or higher. So was mine. Did you end up going to law school?

I did not. Had to choose between law school and my wife. Chose the latter, which is the only decision I've made that actually validates my intelligence. Also, I edited my last post to be more specific.

---

Does anyone know-

During yesterday's task force press conference, Dr Birx said that the big question is, how many people have gotten the virus without showing symptoms.   We're only testing people who have shown symptoms.  If there are loads of people who have never been tested because they haven't shown symptoms, but who have recovered already and have immunity as a result, that would be tremendously good news, because that would tell us that we are building a herd immunity and the virus would peak and decline a lot sooner.

So, my question is, does anyone know what they are doing to find out the answer to this?

They have a test they are working on now. It's actually a bodily fluids test that checks for antibodies, if I recall correctly. 90% accuracy and can be done from home. I don't think the who nation needs to be tested, but random samples should be a fairly good predictor. Last I heard (2 days ago, which seems like an eternity), it was trying to get approval by the FDA.

---

Does anyone know-

During yesterday's task force press conference, Dr Birx said that the big question is, how many people have gotten the virus without showing symptoms.   We're only testing people who have shown symptoms.  If there are loads of people who have never been tested because they haven't shown symptoms, but who have recovered already and have immunity as a result, that would be tremendously good news, because that would tell us that we are building a herd immunity and the virus would peak and decline a lot sooner.

So, my question is, does anyone know what they are doing to find out the answer to this?

I said that from the beginning. The actual CFR will never be known. It's definitely less than 1% with all the asymptomatic people... and people that are just straight immune.

But one thing we do know is that the CFR goes way up if ventilators are not available...

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

That suggests your score was 85th percentile or higher. So was mine. Did you end up going to law school?

I did not. Had to choose between law school and my wife. Chose the latter, which is the only decision I've made that actually validates my intelligence. Also, I edited my last post to be more specific.

---

Does anyone know-

During yesterday's task force press conference, Dr Birx said that the big question is, how many people have gotten the virus without showing symptoms.   We're only testing people who have shown symptoms.  If there are loads of people who have never been tested because they haven't shown symptoms, but who have recovered already and have immunity as a result, that would be tremendously good news, because that would tell us that we are building a herd immunity and the virus would peak and decline a lot sooner.

So, my question is, does anyone know what they are doing to find out the answer to this?

They have a test they are working on now. It's actually a bodily fluids test that checks for antibodies, if I recall correctly. 90% accuracy and can be done from home. I don't think the who nation needs to be tested, but random samples should be a fairly good predictor. Last I heard (2 days ago, which seems like an eternity), it was trying to get approval by the FDA.

I agree I think they could do a random sample.  New York would probably be the area with the most undetected cases, since it's the area with the most detected cases.  

This seems like really important information, that could factor into when to ease off on shutting down the country.

---

Yeah, the UK just orders 1.5 million of those tests. They are trying to answer the right questions.

---

Yeah, the UK just orders 1.5 million of those tests. They are trying to answer the right questions.

Our leaders promised to test a million people, that was a couple of weeks ago. 
It would be nice if we could test a million people a week or even a million people a day. But I think they're just promising to test a million people, eventually.

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

GM just gave me yet another reason to never buy a GM (Chevrolet) vehicle.

---

There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

GM just gave me yet another reason to never buy a GM (Chevrolet) vehicle.

You should avoid GM just because they make crappy cars the 1.5 eco tech is horrible!

---

GM is still a company? I thought Obama bought them.

---

Uh oh just got home from the shop wife’s been taking my temp daily as a precaution today it was 99.6 hopefully it’s just from working in the heat all day I’ll try again in an hour

---

Uh oh just got home from the shop wife’s been taking my temp daily as a precaution today it was 99.6 hopefully it’s just from working in the heat all day I’ll try again in an hour

I’d just tell her that you’re just hot for her.  Then make another baby.  You get 500/kid!  You’re now a gigalo or porn star.  Either way, rock on brother!

---

Yeah, the UK just orders 1.5 million of those tests. They are trying to answer the right questions.

Our leaders promised to test a million people, that was a couple of weeks ago. 
It would be nice if we could test a million people a week or even a million people a day. But I think they're just promising to test a million people, eventually.

Half a million and counting #NOTTODAY

---

GM just gave me yet another reason to never buy a GM (Chevrolet) vehicle.

You would have bought one in the first place?

---

As to the question, inductive reasoning applies here. It's on record to quote me if I am incorrect (but I seriously doubt it).

If we "reverse course" and "open the country up", many states and most foreign countries will stay "closed." Those places that are "closed" will probably see significantly less new cases than the places that aren't.  

But more new cases doesn't necessarily mean more deaths.  
Again, so long as there is at least one spare ventilator in the area, we can look at the number of deaths and say "this was the best we could do." But as soon as an area runs out of ventilators, extra people will die, and we will know that it was not "the best we could do".

I was thinking about this all day.  That's actually the best objective  answer to the definition of victory when we reintegrate the economy.

---

GM just gave me yet another reason to never buy a GM (Chevrolet) vehicle.

You would have bought one in the first place?

I’m very slowly becoming anti GM.   Used to be above the whole Ford/Chevy crap.  Those that dispute each other are just rednecks.  The new chevys, I must say look good.  But, if you’re going to promise tomake ventilators, then up the price and lower the units, [BLEEP] off.  Good on trump.  Special times require special measures.  

As it turns out, my wife and I squeaked out 2900 in stimulus.  We really don’t need it.  It’ll go back to those that do.  So for GM to be a Jaylen Ramsey, have at it.  Give back.

---