The first glimmer of hope for bending the curve?  Here are the last 7 days' cases, and the percentage increase from the previous day.  

33,300 31%
43,800 32%
53,700 23%
65,800 23%
85,800 30%
101,700 19%
121,500 19%

It's a very small sample size, but the percentage increase is trending down in spite of increased testing.

Too soon to tell?

OTOH, I'm very concerned that the extensive testing of chloroquine/azithromycin in New York hasn't caused a noticeable drop in the number of additional deaths. Either the treatment isn't working, it isn't being administered, or it is working but the death rate would have been way worse.

I wonder if the testing has half the victims on placebo. IMO denying half the victims a possible life-saving treatment would be akin to murder.

The test I read about are completely uncontrolled. The ID specialists who analyzed the results said it's too soon to tell anything. How can you measure the impact to a death rate when only ~2,000 have died total? There's no trends in that small and disparate a sample size, just more faulty information that's of little value.  And when you've got the media over hyping every damn thing that happens all you get is another panic run where patients who were already using Chloroquine for legitimate conditions like RA and Lupus can't find it because people who don't need it are clamoring for it.

As for your last statement, 99 out of 100 infected people will not die even if nothing but traditional therapy is done. Giving people who won't die from the virus an experimental and frequently damaging treatment is unethical.

---

“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

OTOH, I'm very concerned that the extensive testing of chloroquine/azithromycin in New York hasn't caused a noticeable drop in the number of additional deaths. Either the treatment isn't working, it isn't being administered, or it is working but the death rate would have been way worse.

I wonder if the testing has half the victims on placebo. IMO denying half the victims a possible life-saving treatment would be akin to murder.

The test I read about are completely uncontrolled. The ID specialists who analyzed the results said it's too soon to tell anything. How can you measure the impact to a death rate when only ~2,000 have died total? There's no trends in that small and disparate a sample size, just more faulty information that's of little value.  And when you've got the media over hyping every damn thing that happens all you get is another panic run where patients who were already using Chloroquine for legitimate conditions like RA and Lupus can't find it because people who don't need it are clamoring for it.

As for your last statement, 99 out of 100 infected people will not die even if nothing but traditional therapy is done. Giving people who won't die from the virus an experimental and frequently damaging treatment is unethical.

Good points. I was only thinking about those on death's door from the virus. I don't advocate giving it to everyone who has a cough.

And here's some good news on the CQZ front.

Link

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"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"

The first glimmer of hope for bending the curve?  Here are the last 7 days' cases, and the percentage increase from the previous day.  

33,300 31%
43,800 32%
53,700 23%
65,800 23%
85,800 30%
101,700 19%
121,500 19%

It's a very small sample size, but the percentage increase is trending down in spite of increased testing.

Too soon to tell?

Better to track confirmed Covid deaths. Which are still growing exponentially.

---

There is a rumor going around that Tony Boseilli has the virus

---

The first glimmer of hope for bending the curve?  Here are the last 7 days' cases, and the percentage increase from the previous day.  

33,300 31%
43,800 32%
53,700 23%
65,800 23%
85,800 30%
101,700 19%
121,500 19%

It's a very small sample size, but the percentage increase is trending down in spite of increased testing.

Too soon to tell?

Better to track confirmed Covid deaths. Which are still growing exponentially.

Not really that fast.

I heard a news chick say that "Nassau County deaths DOUBLED yesterday!!!!"

Yeah, went from 1 all the way to 2.  :Eyeroll:

---

“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

4266 cases in FL
56 deaths

I now have two friends who have lost a parent to this virus.
One friend's mother was 75 yrs old and healthy. No respiratory illness/condition and no immune disorder.
She was dead in three days of showing symptoms.

People still calling this no big deal are kidding themselves.

---

4266 cases in FL
56 deaths

I now have two friends who have lost a parent to this virus.
One friend's mother was 75 yrs old and healthy. No respiratory illness/condition and no immune disorder.
She was dead in three days of showing symptoms.

People still calling this no big deal are kidding themselves.

It's a big deal.

The annual flu season is also a big deal but since we're used to it we just cruise along and ignore it.

The question is just how much we should cripple the economy to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. So far we don't have enough data to definitively answer that question. But everyone has an opinion, and considers everyone else with a different opinion to be an idiot.

The data from Italy suggest that a main mode of transmission is in hospitals. Ideally the COVID-19 patients should be housed in a separate facility from the rest. We're not doing that.

The US  and European medical experts claimed that masks didn't help. In South Korea (... Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong) everyone wore masks and the infection rate per-capita was way down compared to the US and Europe. But we should all listen to experts and ignore the evidence.

---

                                                                          

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"

Better to track confirmed Covid deaths. Which are still growing exponentially.

Not really that fast.

I heard a news chick say that "Nassau County deaths DOUBLED yesterday!!!!"

Yeah, went from 1 all the way to 2.  :Eyeroll:

You don't consider exponential growth to be fast or you don't believe the number of deaths being reported?

---

4266 cases in FL
56 deaths

I now have two friends who have lost a parent to this virus.
One friend's mother was 75 yrs old and healthy. No respiratory illness/condition and no immune disorder.
She was dead in three days of showing symptoms.

People still calling this no big deal are kidding themselves.

It's a big deal.

The annual flu season is also a big deal but since we're used to it we just cruise along and ignore it.

The question is just how much we should cripple the economy to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. So far we don't have enough data to definitively answer that question. But everyone has an opinion, and considers everyone else with a different opinion to be an idiot.

The data from Italy suggest that a main mode of transmission is in hospitals. Ideally the COVID-19 patients should be housed in a separate facility from the rest. We're not doing that.

The US  and European medical experts claimed that masks didn't help. In South Korea (... Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong) everyone wore masks and the infection rate per-capita was way down compared to the US and Europe. But we should all listen to experts and ignore the evidence.

Our health experts always, always, always, insist nothing works except the most effective thing available. 
If there is a sanitizing system that kills 99.9% of viruses, and another that kills 99.99%, they will insist that you *must* buy the 99.99% system and that the other one doesn't work.  At all. Even if the 99.9% system costs 99% less.
Which might be good advice for big hospitals.
But it's terrible advice for commoners like us.

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

4266 cases in FL
56 deaths

I now have two friends who have lost a parent to this virus.
One friend's mother was 75 yrs old and healthy. No respiratory illness/condition and no immune disorder.
She was dead in three days of showing symptoms.

People still calling this no big deal are kidding themselves.

It's a big deal.

The annual flu season is also a big deal but since we're used to it we just cruise along and ignore it.

The question is just how much we should cripple the economy to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. So far we don't have enough data to definitively answer that question. But everyone has an opinion, and considers everyone else with a different opinion to be an idiot.

The data from Italy suggest that a main mode of transmission is in hospitals. Ideally the COVID-19 patients should be housed in a separate facility from the rest. We're not doing that.

The US  and European medical experts claimed that masks didn't help. In South Korea (... Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong) everyone wore masks and the infection rate per-capita was way down compared to the US and Europe. But we should all listen to experts and ignore the evidence.

What I had been hearing (probably from the same experts you cite) was that wearing a mask didn't protect you from the virus; it kept you from transmitting the virus to other people.  

However, in the last 2 days, I have read several articles that stated that scientific studies show that wearing a mask DOES offer some protection to the wearer.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/healt...masks.html

"When researchers conducted systematic review of a variety of interventions used during the SARS outbreak in 2003, they found that washing hands more than 10 times daily was 55 percent effective in stopping virus transmission, while wearing a mask was actually more effective — at about 68 percent."

In a lot of Asian countries, everyone wears a mask.  Taiwan in particular has done a really great job of controlling the virus with only 3 deaths so far, and the way almost everyone is wearing a mask has to be a big contributor to that success.  Taiwan has more people than Florida and is less than 1/4 the area.  It's pretty densely packed with people.  Taiwan requires people to wear a mask when they are on public transportation, in a hospital, or in a school. 

Also, and this is really important, TAIWAN HAS GONE BACK TO WORK.  Everyone is back to work.  The kids are back in school.  People are eating out.  But they all wear masks.  

---

The first glimmer of hope for bending the curve?  Here are the last 7 days' cases, and the percentage increase from the previous day.  

33,300 31%
43,800 32%
53,700 23%
65,800 23%
85,800 30%
101,700 19%
121,500 19%

It's a very small sample size, but the percentage increase is trending down in spite of increased testing.

Too soon to tell?

Better to track confirmed Covid deaths. Which are still growing exponentially.

The curve of deaths is going to be reduced in amplitude and phase shifted forwards in time.
Peak deaths should be (hopefully) <1% of peak caseload, and should happen about 1 or 2 weeks later.
You'll see the case curve flatten before the death curve does.

---

My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

It's a big deal.

The annual flu season is also a big deal but since we're used to it we just cruise along and ignore it.

The question is just how much we should cripple the economy to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. So far we don't have enough data to definitively answer that question. But everyone has an opinion, and considers everyone else with a different opinion to be an idiot.

The data from Italy suggest that a main mode of transmission is in hospitals. Ideally the COVID-19 patients should be housed in a separate facility from the rest. We're not doing that.

The US  and European medical experts claimed that masks didn't help. In South Korea (... Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong) everyone wore masks and the infection rate per-capita was way down compared to the US and Europe. But we should all listen to experts and ignore the evidence.

Our health experts always, always, always, insist nothing works except the most effective thing available. 
If there is a sanitizing system that kills 99.9% of viruses, and another that kills 99.99%, they will insist that you *must* buy the 99.99% system and that the other one doesn't work.  At all. Even if the 99.9% system costs 99% less.
Which might be good advice for big hospitals.
But it's terrible advice for commoners like us.
But it's

Yep.

Why the (guesstimate) 80% cure rate for CQZ is being pushed aside for remdesvir, which we don't have in large supply and is very expensive.

---

It's a big deal.

The annual flu season is also a big deal but since we're used to it we just cruise along and ignore it.

The question is just how much we should cripple the economy to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. So far we don't have enough data to definitively answer that question. But everyone has an opinion, and considers everyone else with a different opinion to be an idiot.

The data from Italy suggest that a main mode of transmission is in hospitals. Ideally the COVID-19 patients should be housed in a separate facility from the rest. We're not doing that.

The US  and European medical experts claimed that masks didn't help. In South Korea (... Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong) everyone wore masks and the infection rate per-capita was way down compared to the US and Europe. But we should all listen to experts and ignore the evidence.

What I had been hearing (probably from the same experts you cite) was that wearing a mask didn't protect you from the virus; it kept you from transmitting the virus to other people.  In a lot of Asian countries, everyone wears a mask.  Taiwan in particular has done a really great job of controlling the virus with only 3 deaths so far, and the way almost everyone is wearing a mask has to be a big contributor to that success.  Taiwan has more people than Florida and is less than 1/4 the area.  It's pretty densely packed with people.  Taiwan requires people to wear a mask when they are on public transportation, in a hospital, or in a school. 

In the last 2 days, I have read several articles that stated that scientific studies show that wearing a mask DOES offer some protection to the wearer.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/healt...masks.html

"When researchers conducted systematic review of a variety of interventions used during the SARS outbreak in 2003, they found that washing hands more than 10 times daily was 55 percent effective in stopping virus transmission, while wearing a mask was actually more effective — at about 68 percent."

In the last two days!

---

Better to track confirmed Covid deaths. Which are still growing exponentially.

The curve of deaths is going to be reduced in amplitude and phase shifted forwards in time.
Peak deaths should be (hopefully) <1% of peak caseload, and should happen about 1 or 2 weeks later.
You'll see the case curve flatten before the death curve does.

Or if a lot of people without symptoms test positive on the antibody test (if it ever actually gets used).

---

                                                                          

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"

Yes, in the last 2 days.  

And you know what else?  Taiwan has gone back to work!  They have reopened their economy, the kids are back in school, everything is back to normal, except, they are all wearing masks in public areas.  

They have more than 20 million people on a small island, with lots of travel to and from mainland China, and yet, they've done something right, because they have had 3 people die of the virus.  

I wonder if we're taking some wrong approaches here in the US.

---

4266 cases in FL
56 deaths

I now have two friends who have lost a parent to this virus.
One friend's mother was 75 yrs old and healthy. No respiratory illness/condition and no immune disorder.
She was dead in three days of showing symptoms.

People still calling this no big deal are kidding themselves.

BTW, in regards to your bashing of Trump wrt supplying New York, don't believe everything anything you read:

Cuomo Lied!

---

                                                                          

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"

4266 cases in FL
56 deaths

I now have two friends who have lost a parent to this virus.
One friend's mother was 75 yrs old and healthy. No respiratory illness/condition and no immune disorder.
She was dead in three days of showing symptoms.

People still calling this no big deal are kidding themselves.

BTW, in regards to your bashing of Trump wrt supplying New York, don't believe everything anything you read:

Cuomo Lied!

Okay, I read the article, and I don't see where Cuomo told a lie.

---

Better to track confirmed Covid deaths. Which are still growing exponentially.

The curve of deaths is going to be reduced in amplitude and phase shifted forwards in time.
Peak deaths should be (hopefully) <1% of peak caseload, and should happen about 1 or 2 weeks later.
You'll see the case curve flatten before the death curve does.

The case curve is dependent on cases tested. I'm not really sure what your point here is. 

That you can track a completely unreliable statistic faster than a more reliable option by a week?

---

On February 7th, the US sent 17 tons of medical gear to China.
Less than a month later the US was begging for donations and increased domestic production of some of these same items that were sent overseas.
Now healthcare workers in the US are begging for these items in states where the president has threatened to let them fend for themselves.
And we've reached the point of doctors and other healthcare workers dying in several states from COVID-19.
There is zero opinion in this post. Only fact.

Link to cited aid shipment:
https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-...ronavirus/

You're a @#%( liar!  

1.) That was 7 days after we cut off travel to China, our largest trading partner.  

2.) Weve distributed millions upon millions of units to states, including NY.  Cuomo has stated that they are stocked for the immediate future and they're still in line to get millions more


3.) Were in line to spin out 100k ventilators in the next 100 days.  

4.) Dozens of companies are making masks, gowns, and face shields.

5.) An actual articulation of the procurement process isn't threatening people to "fend for themselves".

#NOTTODAY

---

Yes, in the last 2 days.  

And you know what else?  Taiwan has gone back to work!  They have reopened their economy, the kids are back in school, everything is back to normal, except, they are all wearing masks in public areas.  

They have more than 20 million people on a small island, with lots of travel to and from mainland China, and yet, they've done something right, because they have had 3 people die of the virus.  

I wonder if we're taking some wrong approaches here in the US.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.....  they can see what u type!!!

---

The first glimmer of hope for bending the curve?  Here are the last 7 days' cases, and the percentage increase from the previous day.  

33,300 31%
43,800 32%
53,700 23%
65,800 23%
85,800 30%
101,700 19%
121,500 19%

It's a very small sample size, but the percentage increase is trending down in spite of increased testing.

Too soon to tell?

OTOH, I'm very concerned that the extensive testing of chloroquine/azithromycin in New York hasn't caused a noticeable drop in the number of additional deaths. Either the treatment isn't working, it isn't being administered, or it is working but the death rate would have been way worse.

I wonder if the testing has half the victims on placebo. IMO denying half the victims a possible life-saving treatment would be akin to murder.

The trial in ny only really started tues.  We should start seeing more comparative data towards the end of this week on that limited test group.  

No, it wasnt a "controlled" study with a placebo group.  That's because of the reason you just illustrated.  The French epidemiologist who wrote one of the first studies illustrated that under the circumstances theres a serious ethical question to not giving people the potentially life saving treatment.  

The death rate is a lagging indicator.  Unfortunately those passing away have generally been hospitalized or on vents for a while.  The current trial wont show up in the death curve because of the lag and its limited scope.  Well have to look at that patient group compared to the general standard of care population.  

As for remdesovir....  hcqn and zpack are generic.  We cant have that right.  

With the lag in the death rate and the continued backlog of test kits being run through the lab, I think new hospitalization rate is going to be the best stat to watch for now.  In a week or so well be turning around new tests fast enough to have a more accurate 24 hour data cycle (until the 15 minute point of care test is widely dispersed).

---

BTW...

If the senate trial went to witnesses, we would already be in a depression or worse.

---