Has casual lying throughout Trump speeches got worse? Or he just been on tv too much lately.

More tests than the rest of the world put together?

Then the clear lies that can't be substantiated. I doubt South Korea has been highly praising the US testing, but maybe they are smart and play to his fragile ego and just pretend? If so probably not worth crowing about.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_mQml9h5ZY

Ironically, the statistical problem they have is relatively small.  By that I mean, they plainly stated the assumption that they were making in their calculation.  If you dont like the stats they use for overall disease prevalence, you can just plug in the serology numbers.  When you do, their results are still on the same order of magnitude.  For instance in CA they used the 12% fr the % + of diagnostic testing.  If u use the upperbpund of the Stanford serology study (4.2%) then instead of .03 you get an infection mortality rate of .09 on the lower bound (2.2%) your looking at <.2. That's still in the same relative ballpark.  

When we selected the lockdown social distancing option we were quoted a mortality rate between 4 to 7%.  We were taking about projections of deaths in the millions.   Both of those figures have been completely debunked and shown to be based on completely unreasonable assumptions.   Is big tech censoring Chris Murphy?  IHME?  YouTube literally is using the WHO talking points as part of their defacto rules of conduct.  Neil Ferguson is still being consulted for his thoughts on the second wave, and he was wrong about covid, swine flu, bird flu, and mad cow disease.

You're right about most of this. But the number of people dying is way more than you would expect in normal, no-pandemic weeks and normal, no-pandemic months. And that's *with* social distancing.  We may never know what the results look like with no social distancing. Maybe a different country somewhere will give us a basis to estimate,The maybe not. 
The number of US deaths with social distancing are about 60k so far. Just for rough numbers, if the downward curve looks about like the upward curve did, you're looking at 120,000 deaths total, and the maybe vaccine comes early and the story basically ends there.
Obviously the worst case, predicted number of deaths from 6 weeks ago was just over one order of magnitude more this. 
But we know that large-scale social distancing is meant to reduce the R0 of the epidemic. And we know that this R0 number is the base of an exponent in the equation for how many deaths occur over time, where time is in the exponent. It is not hard for even a small change in the R0 value to change the result of the exponential formula by a factor of 10 or 20 over time.

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My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

Can we all thank God we have a Republican governor? Had meth head won, this state would looked like Nazi Germany, AKA Broward county.

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Wife of man who died "drinking fish tank cleaner" is a democratic donor and his COD is being investigated.

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Yeah, I am curious what will come of that. Homicide unit is investigating.

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Confirmed case fatality rate is only part of the story.
The other part is how contagious the thing is, how many people will get it.
Even with social distancing, in the United States, more people have already died of coronavirus than have died of the flu in any recent flu season. 
One reason is that there is no vaccine for covid 19. even though we know flu vaccines were never perfect, they do help matters.  But probably a bigger reason is that this Coronavirus gives a lot of asymptomatic carriers. We don't know who these carriers might be. Until we do some robust contact tracing like more authoritarian places like South Korea and Singapore, we just have to tell everybody to stay home as much as possible because they might be one of the asymptomatic carriers.

More contagious but not more deadly. We are already learning that almost 50% of the population has had it and herd immunity is in progress. The problem is hot spots like New York saying every death is COVID-19. We also no this to be highly skewed and doctors have admitted to such. It isn't happenstance that Flu/Pneumonia deaths have dropped drastically during the peak of the season. What is contract tracing going to fix? It is just another emotional direction with little effect. COVID-19 isn't a death sentence and there should be two sides to attacking it. 1.) Ramp up pre-cytokine treatments when testing positive. 2.) Continue work on a broad spectrum vaccine for both influenza and corona. Life should go back to normal during this research. If you are compromised, take extra precautions. Over 98% of us will be just fine.

Source for the bold text? Are you sure you aren't talking about the UK?

The influenza season peaked between December and February. The first C-19 death in New York was in March.

If C-19 is more contagious, and if it kills at the same rate as influenza (which has been predicted), it's more deadly. 

"Just fine" is very subjective. Recent reports suggest C-19 has caused strokes and kidney failure. Too much is unknown to declare that 98% will be 'just fine".

Not mentioned in the post to which I'm replying, but you've mentioned the veracity of claims that UV rays somehow introduced into the body could be effective against C -19. Fair enough, unless you're claiming that Trump had that in mind he asked his ridiculous question of Dr. Birx.

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If something can corrupt you, you're corrupted already.
- Bob Marley


 

Has casual lying throughout Trump speeches got worse? Or he just been on tv too much lately.

More tests than the rest of the world put together?

Then the clear lies that can't be substantiated. I doubt South Korea has been highly praising the US testing, but maybe they are smart and play to his fragile ego and just pretend? If so probably not worth crowing about.

Let me guess?  Yahoo news?

---

More contagious but not more deadly. We are already learning that almost 50% of the population has had it and herd immunity is in progress. The problem is hot spots like New York saying every death is COVID-19. We also no this to be highly skewed and doctors have admitted to such. It isn't happenstance that Flu/Pneumonia deaths have dropped drastically during the peak of the season. What is contract tracing going to fix? It is just another emotional direction with little effect. COVID-19 isn't a death sentence and there should be two sides to attacking it. 1.) Ramp up pre-cytokine treatments when testing positive. 2.) Continue work on a broad spectrum vaccine for both influenza and corona. Life should go back to normal during this research. If you are compromised, take extra precautions. Over 98% of us will be just fine.

Source for the bold text? Are you sure you aren't talking about the UK?

The influenza season peaked between December and February. The first C-19 death in New York was in March.

If C-19 is more contagious, and if it kills at the same rate as influenza (which has been predicted), it's more deadly. 

"Just fine" is very subjective. Recent reports suggest C-19 has caused strokes and kidney failure. Too much is unknown to declare that 98% will be 'just fine".

Not mentioned in the post to which I'm replying, but you've mentioned the veracity of claims that UV rays somehow introduced into the body could be effective against C -19. Fair enough, unless you're claiming that Trump had that in mind he asked his ridiculous question of Dr. Birx.

Anyone ever notice "Trump was technically right but hes still stupid!" Coming from the peanut gallery?

---

Ironically, the statistical problem they have is relatively small.  By that I mean, they plainly stated the assumption that they were making in their calculation.  If you dont like the stats they use for overall disease prevalence, you can just plug in the serology numbers.  When you do, their results are still on the same order of magnitude.  For instance in CA they used the 12% fr the % + of diagnostic testing.  If u use the upperbpund of the Stanford serology study (4.2%) then instead of .03 you get an infection mortality rate of .09 on the lower bound (2.2%) your looking at <.2. That's still in the same relative ballpark.  

When we selected the lockdown social distancing option we were quoted a mortality rate between 4 to 7%.  We were taking about projections of deaths in the millions.   Both of those figures have been completely debunked and shown to be based on completely unreasonable assumptions.   Is big tech censoring Chris Murphy?  IHME?  YouTube literally is using the WHO talking points as part of their defacto rules of conduct.  Neil Ferguson is still being consulted for his thoughts on the second wave, and he was wrong about covid, swine flu, bird flu, and mad cow disease.

You're right about most of this. But the number of people dying is way more than you would expect in normal, no-pandemic weeks and normal, no-pandemic months. And that's *with* social distancing.  We may never know what the results look like with no social distancing. Maybe a different country somewhere will give us a basis to estimate,The maybe not. 
The number of US deaths with social distancing are about 60k so far. Just for rough numbers, if the downward curve looks about like the upward curve did, you're looking at 120,000 deaths total, and the maybe vaccine comes early and the story basically ends there.
Obviously the worst case, predicted number of deaths from 6 weeks ago was just over one order of magnitude more this. 
But we know that large-scale social distancing is meant to reduce the R0 of the epidemic. And we know that this R0 number is the base of an exponent in the equation for how many deaths occur over time, where time is in the exponent. It is not hard for even a small change in the R0 value to change the result of the exponential formula by a factor of 10 or 20 over time.

Early serology studies from STOCKHOLM sweden show a 30% viral penetration (50% more than NYC results so far) and they didnt turn to smoldering ash or overrun their hospital system. 

Last year january through april total deaths in the us was about 630k.  This year were coming in around 610.  But, that's a somewhat misleading statistic.  In order to prepare for the wave that never happened. We shut down the HC system to most other morbidities, and we know they are more lethal.  Chemotherapy treatments went down some 50% surgeries for cancer, elective heart procedures etc. Have all been delayed.  This is going to result in more non covid death over time.

As for the r0. The biggest reason for the models being universally wrong was the false assumption that this started in jan/Feb.  Over 750k travelers from china since november.  The earliest known fatality is now believed to have been 2/6 that puts an infection date in early jan late December,, and that patient had no remarkable travel history (community spread).   Before we knew what covid 19 was, our recorded pneumonia death toll was peaking through epidemic levels.  That is highly suggestive that the spread of the virus started much earlier.  The exponential models based their curves on a start date late jan early Feb for patient zero.  As you put so eloquently if you double the real time it took to reach a level of viral penetration you dont just halve the infection rate, it declines algorithmically.  That's the variable that changed in the imperial and IHME models that already factored in social distancing.

There's a historical inverse correlation between the infectiousness of a disease and the lethality of the disease. It's no surprise that while this virus appears to be more communicable, its still on the same ORDER OF MAGNITUDE as the flu and it appears that the lethality is still on the same ORDER OF MAGNITUDE. The shutdowns were ordered when we thought we were looking at a Unicorn with an r0 of 3 and an infection mortality rate of 4 to 7%.

As for social distancing, the international left tried its best to ensure there wouldn't be a legitimate counterfactual. Boris Johnson was initially looking to shelter the vulnerable and pursue herd immunity in the young and healthy. The outcry was deafening. When you look at Sweden a.) it hasn't become the level of smoldering ASH that everyone thought. b.) it demonstrates that there is another curve that no one thought about. Every policy item within viral mitigation has diminishing return. By that I mean the level of viral mitigation you have in shutting down a couple of kids playing basketball inside in a park won't give you the same return as no longer shaking hands and shutting down 30k people getting together inside, in a dry climate controlled environment to watch an NBA game. When you look at Places like Michigan, Minnesota, NJ etc. they made the mistake of thinking that any policy with the mitigation in the title has a universal value. So I think that the reasons that Sweden's curve has performed in line with a lot of countries that went the draconian route is that aside from the three or four big ticket items, the rest of it is just window dressing.

Moreover, we essentially started what could be the worst recession since the great depression. We started this under the idea of "Well, it's not going to affect you, but what about your grandparents, etc." Nevermind the fact that it would have just been simpler to tell people not to visit their grandparents for a while instead of causing 30 million people to unemployed, we're still having massive outbreaks in NURSING HOMES! In NY you had so much of a worry about Healthcare utilization that they mandated Nursing homes take covid positive patients. Think about that for a second. 3.5k NURSING HOME deaths in NY. If you can't keep the virus out of nursing homes, then you're mitigation strategy isn't worth the toilet paper its written on.

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Anyone ever notice "Trump was technically right but hes still stupid!" Coming from the peanut gallery?

The media takes Trump literally but not seriously.
Trump's supporters take him seriously but not literally.

---

You're right about most of this. But the number of people dying is way more than you would expect in normal, no-pandemic weeks and normal, no-pandemic months. And that's *with* social distancing.  We may never know what the results look like with no social distancing. Maybe a different country somewhere will give us a basis to estimate,The maybe not. 
The number of US deaths with social distancing are about 60k so far. Just for rough numbers, if the downward curve looks about like the upward curve did, you're looking at 120,000 deaths total, and the maybe vaccine comes early and the story basically ends there.
Obviously the worst case, predicted number of deaths from 6 weeks ago was just over one order of magnitude more this. 
But we know that large-scale social distancing is meant to reduce the R0 of the epidemic. And we know that this R0 number is the base of an exponent in the equation for how many deaths occur over time, where time is in the exponent. It is not hard for even a small change in the R0 value to change the result of the exponential formula by a factor of 10 or 20 over time.

Early serology studies from STOCKHOLM sweden show a 30% viral penetration (50% more than NYC results so far) and they didnt turn to smoldering ash or overrun their hospital system. 

Last year january through april total deaths in the us was about 630k.  This year were coming in around 610.  But, that's a somewhat misleading statistic.  In order to prepare for the wave that never happened. We shut down the HC system to most other morbidities, and we know they are more lethal.  Chemotherapy treatments went down some 50% surgeries for cancer, elective heart procedures etc. Have all been delayed.  This is going to result in more non covid death over time.

As for the r0. The biggest reason for the models being universally wrong was the false assumption that this started in jan/Feb.  Over 750k travelers from china since november.  The earliest known fatality is now believed to have been 2/6 that puts an infection date in early jan late December,, and that patient had no remarkable travel history (community spread).   Before we knew what covid 19 was, our recorded pneumonia death toll was peaking through epidemic levels.  That is highly suggestive that the spread of the virus started much earlier.  The exponential models based their curves on a start date late jan early Feb for patient zero.  As you put so eloquently if you double the real time it took to reach a level of viral penetration you dont just halve the infection rate, it declines algorithmically.  That's the variable that changed in the imperial and IHME models that already factored in social distancing.

There's a historical inverse correlation between the infectiousness of a disease and the lethality of the disease.  It's no surprise that while this virus appears to be more communicable, its still on the same ORDER OF MAGNITUDE as the flu and it appears that the lethality is still on the same ORDER OF MAGNITUDE.  The shutdowns were ordered when we thought we were looking at a Unicorn with an r0 of 3 and an infection mortality rate of 4 to 7%.  

As for social distancing, the international left tried its best to ensure there wouldn't be a legitimate counterfactual.  Boris Johnson was initially looking to shelter the vulnerable and pursue herd immunity in the young and healthy.  The outcry was deafening.  When you look at Sweden  a.) it hasn't become the level of smoldering ASH that everyone thought.  b.) it demonstrates that there is another curve that no one thought about.  Every policy item within viral mitigation has diminishing return.  By that I mean the level of viral mitigation you have in shutting down a couple of kids playing basketball inside in a park won't give you the same return as no longer shaking hands and shutting down 30k people getting together inside, in a dry climate controlled environment to watch an NBA game.  When you look at Places like Michigan, Minnesota, NJ etc. they made the mistake of thinking that any policy with the mitigation in the title has a universal value.  So I think that the reasons that Sweden's curve has performed in line with a lot of countries that went the draconian route is that aside from the three or four big ticket items, the rest of it is just window dressing.  

Moreover, we essentially started what could be the worst recession since the great depression.  We started this under the idea of "Well, it's not going to affect you, but what about your grandparents, etc."  Nevermind the fact that it would have just been simpler to tell people not to visit their grandparents for a while instead of causing 30 million people to unemployed, we're still having massive outbreaks in NURSING HOMES!  In NY you had so much of a worry about Healthcare utilization that they mandated Nursing homes take covid positive patients.  Think about that for a second.  3.5k NURSING HOME deaths in NY.  If you can't keep the virus out of nursing homes, then you're mitigation strategy isn't worth the toilet paper its written on.

It was a hoax, plain and simple.

---

“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

Winning !!!  Actually, not bad when you compare total populations.

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Costa Rica has been successfully treating CV19 patients with HCQ
They say they received precise dosage and treatment instructions from China.

https://surfguardcr.com/local-news/costa...9-patients

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Ticket rep called and said the Jags are sending out some sweet masks to season ticket holders. Covid paying off with some swag!!

---

Looking to troll? Don't bother, we supply our own.

 

 

REOPEN

Note that the media is anticipating a surge of new cases as less-affected areas reopen.
That's really a self-fulfilling prophecy, since if a state is the first in its area to relax restrictions, they will be flooded with travellers from surrounding states dying for a taste of normalcy.
In fact, ANY state, city, town, park or beach that opens first will be inundated with visitors from outside the area.

---

REOPEN

Note that the media is anticipating a surge of new cases as less-affected areas reopen.
That's really a self-fulfilling prophecy, since if a state is the first in its area to relax restrictions, they will be flooded with travellers from surrounding states dying for a taste of normalcy.
In fact, ANY state, city, town, park or beach that opens first will be inundated with visitors from outside the area.

Self-fulfilling prophecy? These surges of CV19 cases, if/when they do happen, won't occur because the media anticipated it. 

It's a practical prediction based on human behavior mixed in with CV19 communicability, not a self-fulfilling prophecy.

---

I'll play you in ping pong. 

REOPEN

Note that the media is anticipating a surge of new cases as less-affected areas reopen.
That's really a self-fulfilling prophecy, since if a state is the first in its area to relax restrictions, they will be flooded with travellers from surrounding states dying for a taste of normalcy.
In fact, ANY state, city, town, park or beach that opens first will be inundated with visitors from outside the area.

Self-fulfilling prophecy? These surges of CV19 cases, if/when they do happen, won't occur because the media anticipated it. 

It's a practical prediction based on human behavior mixed in with CV19 communicability, not a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It is when the MSM turns around and starts screaming "I TOLD YOU THIS WOULD HAPPEN! WHY OH WHY DIDN'T YOU RUBES LISTEN TO OUR BRILLIANT DISCOURSE ON VIROLOGY AND COMMUNICABLE DISEASES???? NOW WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE AGAIN!!!!! AND IT'S ALL DRUMP"S FAULT!!!! BBBWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAaAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!"

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

Guys. It’s gonna go. It’s gonna leave. It’s gonna be gone. It’s gonna be eradicated.

We good.

You're referring to the US economy of course. 

Both!  


Sorry to say...

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REOPEN

Note that the media is anticipating a surge of new cases as less-affected areas reopen.
That's really a self-fulfilling prophecy, since if a state is the first in its area to relax restrictions, they will be flooded with travellers from surrounding states dying for a taste of normalcy.
In fact, ANY state, city, town, park or beach that opens first will be inundated with visitors from outside the area.

Self-fulfilling prophecy? These surges of CV19 cases, if/when they do happen, won't occur because the media anticipated it. 

It's a practical prediction based on human behavior mixed in with CV19 communicability, not a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Read for content.

---

Ticket rep called and said the Jags are sending out some sweet masks to season ticket holders. Covid paying off with some swag!!

Paper bags?

---

Self-fulfilling prophecy? These surges of CV19 cases, if/when they do happen, won't occur because the media anticipated it. 

It's a practical prediction based on human behavior mixed in with CV19 communicability, not a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Read for content.

Here's some content for you. Learn you something, as you love to tell me.

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I'll play you in ping pong.