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BAP vs Needs based drafting
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People have always been divided on either side of the debate between selecting BAP or a need when drafting. But let me pose a scenario because I want to see how you would proceed using these hypotheticals and the upcoming draft class.
Lets say the following players have the following arbitrary grades (for this example) associated with them coming out: - Lawrence, QB, 9.9/10 - Sewell, OT, 9.5/10 - Fields, QB, 9.2/10 ---------------------------------------------- - Z. Wilson, QB, 8.5/10 - T. Lance, QB, 8.2/10 - K. Trask, QB, 8/10 - M. Jones, QB, 7.8/10 ---------------------------------------------- - S. Cosmi, OT, 8.8/10 - L. Eichenberg, OT, 8.6/10 - R. Slater, OT, 8.4/10 - A. Leatherwood, OT, 8.3/10 - J. Mayfield, OT, 8.2/10 - J. Carman, OT, 7.9/10 I have skipped certain positions in this scenario just focused on the OT and QB debate especially at the top of this draft. The Jets claim the first pick and go with Lawrence. Would you select Sewell and then possibly hope for one of the second-tier QBs like Trask/Jones at our mid 20s pick - with a real possibility that Wilson, Lance, and/or Trask might be gone? Or would you select Fields at 3 and then go with an OT (not considering other positions in this scenario)? I have always believed that it's a mix between BAP and need with each position having a certain weight that it carries. For me personally, I would take Fields over Sewell even if he is graded slightly lower than Sewell because of the impact that QB position has. I'm not diminishing what an OT/LT can bring, obviously it is a premium position like QB but I feel like we could maximize value and production going this way. There are multiple ways to approach the NFL draft and it's not as simple as going only BAP or needs-based. And that's why I love the predictive analysis with what teams would do with how many picks they have, which prospects are available, and more. Again, obviously these grades are arbitrary and only created for this scenario, but what are your thoughts? We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today!
I easily take Sewell and then take the best available QB later in the first round, if my grade fits the slot. I'll always go BAP. Right now, I only have Lawrence graded as a top 10 player at the QB spot, so passing on the other QB's at the #2 spot is an easy decision for me. IMO, just based on overall players right now, I have Sewell as the top guy in the draft.
(11-24-2020, 08:29 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I easily take Sewell and then take the best available QB later in the first round, if my grade fits the slot. I'll always go BAP. Right now, I only have Lawrence graded as a top 10 player at the QB spot, so passing on the other QB's at the #2 spot is an easy decision for me. IMO, just based on overall players right now, I have Sewell as the top guy in the draft. So do you think the Jets are going with Sewell at #1? Because I HIGHLY doubt that to be the case. I could be wrong but I'm not betting on that occurring.
(11-24-2020, 08:33 PM)enigma Wrote:(11-24-2020, 08:29 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I easily take Sewell and then take the best available QB later in the first round, if my grade fits the slot. I'll always go BAP. Right now, I only have Lawrence graded as a top 10 player at the QB spot, so passing on the other QB's at the #2 spot is an easy decision for me. IMO, just based on overall players right now, I have Sewell as the top guy in the draft. I honestly, have no Earthly idea what the Jets are gonna do. Their O-Line is a mess, they have no receivers to throw to and absolutely no running game. It's hard to evaluate a QB, when you have so little weapons around you. I would expect them to take Lawrence, but it's not 100%. They could trade out of #1 and try to add as many draft picks as possible to fill all the needs they have. I doubt they take Sewell at #1, since they just took Mekhi Becton in the last draft. Personally they could go a number of ways, but if they stay at #1, I believe they take Lawrence, so I take the top player on my board, which is Sewell. Other than Lawrence, I believe the rest of the QB class is largely a crapshoot. I have some QB's I like a lot more than others, but in the grand scheme of things, they all fall outside the top 10 picks on my board.
(11-24-2020, 08:43 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:I can tell you what they will do, take the best QB to come out in some time. When healthy their WR group is the best position group on the team. They dont have that true number 1 but Crowder has been a good consistent WR for a while now and the only thing with Perriman has been his health, Mims is starting to come on as well who I think was a good pick for them in the 2nd. They also have their LT who already looks like the best player on their team. They are just gonna have to get a few more pieces on the oline through the draft and FA and with Lawrence the offense will be good. Defense a different story, they are set at safety wit Maye and Davis looks damn good, they have Williams but thats it. They need corners and pass rushers, something they have never been able to find(11-24-2020, 08:33 PM)enigma Wrote: So do you think the Jets are going with Sewell at #1? We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today!
If Lawrence goes at 1 and I do not have Fields and Sewell on equal ranking, I take Sewell because he is ranked higher. I trust that the scouting has found some liability in Fields' game to not rank him at or above the same level of Sewell. Based on how the rest of the draft plays out, I might not even grab one of those second-tier QB with our other first, but instead either wait to see who falls to the end of the first for a potential trade up with our first second, or just wait there to see who falls into our hands.
The absolute worst thing the franchise can do is swing at potential and miss, whether the position is of need or not. I don't see how a can't miss QB would be ranked below a tackle, regardless of how good that tackle may be. Let's look at 2016 draft , as it's the closest example I could find where the draft is two QB and then a wide gap, along with a few tackles who went early. 1st pick is the top QB (Goff), and if you are at 2, with needs at both QB and OT, who do you prefer, Carson Wentz or Ronnie Stanley/Jake Conklin?
Based on this scenerio, I'll have to take the minority opinion. Fields is rated much higher than the next q.b. (Wilson) and 9.2 is still a very high rating. With this rating, he'd have a decent shot at becoming a true franchise quarterback while Wilson would not. I'd then take the highest rated lineman (hopefully Eichenberg or Leatherwood) with the 2nd first rounder- especially if they don't re-sign Robinson.
This discussion will be mute if somehow the Jets win and the Jaguars lose out and have the worst SOS. Our franchise needs something good to happen after what we've been through for many years. Getting Lawrence would likely be the only thing that will bring hope to our fanbase. (11-25-2020, 01:31 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: Based on this scenerio, I'll have to take the minority opinion. Fields is rated much higher than the next q.b. (Wilson) and 9.2 is still a very high rating. With this rating, he'd have a decent shot at becoming a true franchise quarterback while Wilson would not. I'd then take the highest rated lineman (hopefully Eichenberg or Leatherwood) with the 2nd first rounder- especially if they don't re-sign Robinson.Lawerence would be incredible. However, if they draft Fields and Pitts, I would be equally as happy. Get some OLine in FA along with some D players. We cookin.
I take the QB.
Overwhelmingly the most important position, which can transform your franchise for the better part of two decades. 0.3 points of grading isn't nearly a large enough gap to consider another position. We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today! (11-25-2020, 01:59 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:(11-25-2020, 01:31 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: Based on this scenerio, I'll have to take the minority opinion. Fields is rated much higher than the next q.b. (Wilson) and 9.2 is still a very high rating. With this rating, he'd have a decent shot at becoming a true franchise quarterback while Wilson would not. I'd then take the highest rated lineman (hopefully Eichenberg or Leatherwood) with the 2nd first rounder- especially if they don't re-sign Robinson.Lawerence would be incredible. I can't say I'm as high on Fields as you, but based on the scenerio given by Enigma I'd have to take him. If he had Wilson as his 2nd rated q.b. at 9.2, then he would be my choice. I'm not a quarterback guru so I usually defer to those who do that for a living. I do try to watch their games as much as possible, but it's hard to see a lot of guys like Zack Wilson at BYU. I'd definitely like to get Pitts, but he should be the number 1 tight end and be gone by our 2nd pick if the Rams keep winning. Freirmuth isn't quite as athletic as Pitts, but he'd be a nice consolation prize. He's also a more complete tight end than Pitts. (11-25-2020, 08:01 PM)jaglou53 Wrote:Wilson makes some throws that look like Mahomes.(11-25-2020, 01:59 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: Lawerence would be incredible. I’m very intrigued by him. (11-25-2020, 08:52 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:(11-25-2020, 08:01 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: I can't say I'm as high on Fields as you, but based on the scenerio given by Enigma I'd have to take him. If he had Wilson as his 2nd rated q.b. at 9.2, then he would be my choice. I'm not a quarterback guru so I usually defer to those who do that for a living. I do try to watch their games as much as possible, but it's hard to see a lot of guys like Zack Wilson at BYU.Wilson makes some throws that look like Mahomes. Wilson definitely is a guy they will have to consider. He can make all the throws and seems to have most of the intangibles required of an NFL quarterback. The weak schedule he has played may cause some concerns, but that makes the pre-draft evaluations critical. Our new G.M. needs to get this right.
Wilson is the on guy I haven't seen much of so I don't have much of an opinion him. Gonna watch more these last few games.
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I think so too. Wilson was very impressive vs boise and the clips that people link on twitter show superlative traits.
I am a best avail player at a position of need philosophy. Which is really the way at least the first round picks by nfl teams pretty much go imo.
Gimme the second rated qb on the board all day for me over a sligtly higher rated ol. Get your guy not a leftover its too important.
(11-24-2020, 08:21 PM)enigma Wrote: People have always been divided on either side of the debate between selecting BAP or a need when drafting. But let me pose a scenario because I want to see how you would proceed using these hypotheticals and the upcoming draft class. Why not create a grade that is a combination of pure player value plus positional value plus team need value? In your scenario above, as a player, Sewell might be rated 9.5 and Fields rated 9.2, but since QB is about 3 times more important than OT, if you add in positional value, then Fields could have a grade of 27.6 compared to Sewell's 9.5. <of course in that example I am multiplying and not adding, but you get my point. Wouldn't you give up 3 all-pro tackles to get an all-pro QB? I would. We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today! (11-27-2020, 08:17 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:(11-24-2020, 08:21 PM)enigma Wrote: People have always been divided on either side of the debate between selecting BAP or a need when drafting. But let me pose a scenario because I want to see how you would proceed using these hypotheticals and the upcoming draft class. Precisely! You would without thinking twice (11-25-2020, 08:52 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:(11-25-2020, 08:01 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: I can't say I'm as high on Fields as you, but based on the scenerio given by Enigma I'd have to take him. If he had Wilson as his 2nd rated q.b. at 9.2, then he would be my choice. I'm not a quarterback guru so I usually defer to those who do that for a living. I do try to watch their games as much as possible, but it's hard to see a lot of guys like Zack Wilson at BYU.Wilson makes some throws that look like Mahomes. Give me Sewell and Wilson all day. |
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