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Potential 2021 Free Agents


(02-24-2021, 10:27 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-24-2021, 07:37 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I definitely see many rookie OT's being better. Robinson's low blocking scores prove it. Cam Robinson is just bad. He is what he is at this point. He's had time to get better and he hasn't. Sometimes you just have to look at a player and realize he is what he is and accept reality. 

This is what baffles me. Please explain why you feel that a different head coach is somehow gonna make Robinson and Taylor better? They are gonna have the same position coach that they've had all along (Warhop) and they will still possess the same heavy-footedness that they've always had, as you can't waive  magic wand and make that go away. What is gonna be different about this coming season? Is it just blind optimism? That seems like the only explanation to me. 



Because some coaches know how to motivate players and bring out the best in them, I think Urban will be one of those coaches.  Not to mention a full training camp and Urban will make sure they're in shape

(still gonna have Warhop coaching em up, not sure you can expect leaps and bounds in performance)
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(02-25-2021, 09:32 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(02-24-2021, 11:51 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: I agree with th guys on 1010xl.  If we aren't convinced we can sign Trent Williams and they don't plan on going all out for him, I would tag Cam.  I still think Cam will be better  this year than any rookie LT tackle that will be available at 25

No way you tag him. He is nowhere nearly worthy of top 5 tackle money. Better strategy would be to get in touch with a cash-strapped team and offer a pick or two for a decent tackle.

I think we may make an offer, but it ain't gonna be top 5 money, unless Baalke really is that bad at his job.

The reason you would tag Cam is because there is no guarantee you can pull off a deal to get another LT that is an upgrade over Cam.

If you go after Trent and he declines, and the Chargers outbid us for Brown...what's left?

Okung & Villanueva?  Both are likely finished.

It's a rare circumstance that a team will trade away a viable LT.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(02-25-2021, 03:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote: The reason you would tag Cam is because there is no guarantee you can pull off a deal to get another LT that is an upgrade over Cam.

If you go after Trent and he declines, and the Chargers outbid us for Brown...what's left?

Then you draft Jenkins or Cosmi or Radunz or Eichenberg at 25 and take the cheap upgrade.
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March 17th can't get here quick enough..
[Image: SaKG4.gif]
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(02-25-2021, 03:17 PM)Upper Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 03:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote: The reason you would tag Cam is because there is no guarantee you can pull off a deal to get another LT that is an upgrade over Cam.

If you go after Trent and he declines, and the Chargers outbid us for Brown...what's left?

Then you draft Jenkins or Cosmi or Radunz or Eichenberg at 25 and take the cheap upgrade.
That's what you call reaching for a position and not taking BPA, hopefully Meyer doesn't back himself into a corner like that
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(This post was last modified: 02-25-2021, 04:24 PM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(02-25-2021, 03:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 09:32 AM)Mikey Wrote: No way you tag him. He is nowhere nearly worthy of top 5 tackle money. Better strategy would be to get in touch with a cash-strapped team and offer a pick or two for a decent tackle.

I think we may make an offer, but it ain't gonna be top 5 money, unless Baalke really is that bad at his job.

The reason you would tag Cam is because there is no guarantee you can pull off a deal to get another LT that is an upgrade over Cam.

If you go after Trent and he declines, and the Chargers outbid us for Brown...what's left?

Okung & Villanueva?  Both are likely finished.

It's a rare circumstance that a team will trade away a viable LT.

I disagree. Our current OT's set the bar so low, we'd have to really whiff, in order not to find a better one. Their PFF scores are among the bottom in the NFL. 

That's why you offer a massive, front loaded contract for like 3 years that is easy to get out of on the 3rd year. There is no reason to believe he would decline that much in 3 years and we have the cap room to make him the highest paid OT in the league on such a deal. I don't care if we have to overpay, as long as it's a short term deal. That buys us time to find a young LT in the next 2 seasons. 

Okung and Villanueva shouldn't even be on our radar.

(02-25-2021, 03:17 PM)Upper Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 03:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote: The reason you would tag Cam is because there is no guarantee you can pull off a deal to get another LT that is an upgrade over Cam.

If you go after Trent and he declines, and the Chargers outbid us for Brown...what's left?

Then you draft Jenkins or Cosmi or Radunz or Eichenberg at 25 and take the cheap upgrade.

FTFY

(02-25-2021, 04:14 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 03:17 PM)Upper Wrote: Then you draft Jenkins or Cosmi or Radunz or Eichenberg at 25 and take the cheap upgrade.
That's what you call reaching for a position and not taking BPA, hopefully Meyer doesn't back himself into a corner like that

That's your opinion. Everyone has different player rankings. I have multiple OT's in my top 25 overall players.
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(02-25-2021, 04:22 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 03:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote: The reason you would tag Cam is because there is no guarantee you can pull off a deal to get another LT that is an upgrade over Cam.

If you go after Trent and he declines, and the Chargers outbid us for Brown...what's left?

Okung & Villanueva?  Both are likely finished.

It's a rare circumstance that a team will trade away a viable LT.

I disagree. Our current OT's set the bar so low, we'd have to really whiff, in order not to find a better one. Their PFF scores are among the bottom in the NFL. 

That's why you offer a massive, front loaded contract for like 3 years that is easy to get out of on the 3rd year. There is no reason to believe he would decline that much in 3 years and we have the cap room to make him the highest paid OT in the league on such a deal. I don't care if we have to overpay, as long as it's a short term deal. That buys us time to find a young LT in the next 2 seasons. 

Okung and Villanueva shouldn't even be on our radar.


I agree we should make a serious push for Williams.  I wasn't talking a token effort here.  Your middle paragraph sums up my view completely.

But by the same token, even our best effort may not be enough to get Williams.  For whatever reason, Williams may not want to come here.

I hope it isn't true.  Hopefully Trent Williams will gladly and eagerly sign here.  But if he doesn't, we need to have some protection.  It IS possible to get worse at the position.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(02-25-2021, 04:30 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 04:22 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I disagree. Our current OT's set the bar so low, we'd have to really whiff, in order not to find a better one. Their PFF scores are among the bottom in the NFL. 

That's why you offer a massive, front loaded contract for like 3 years that is easy to get out of on the 3rd year. There is no reason to believe he would decline that much in 3 years and we have the cap room to make him the highest paid OT in the league on such a deal. I don't care if we have to overpay, as long as it's a short term deal. That buys us time to find a young LT in the next 2 seasons. 

Okung and Villanueva shouldn't even be on our radar.


I agree we should make a serious push for Williams.  I wasn't talking a token effort here.  Your middle paragraph sums up my view completely.

But by the same token, even our best effort may not be enough to get Williams.  For whatever reason, Williams may not want to come here.

I hope it isn't true.  Hopefully Trent Williams will gladly and eagerly sign here.  But if he doesn't, we need to have some protection.  It IS possible to get worse at the position.

That statement automatically eliminates Cam Robinson. I still keep an eye on the situation in New Orleans. They are so far over the cap, there is a good chance they are forced to move one of their OT's. I would give up #25 and a 2nd rounder for Ramczyk and I'd easily give up #25 for Terron Armstead. If that doesn't happen, I go into the draft targeting Teven Jenkins, Liam Eichenberg or Dillon Radunz. One of them will be available and I have them as big upgrades over Robinson. We might even be able to get one at #33 or #45.
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(02-25-2021, 04:14 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 03:17 PM)Upper Wrote: Then you draft Jenkins or Cosmi or Radunz or Eichenberg at 25 and take the cheap upgrade.
That's what you call reaching for a position and not taking BPA, hopefully Meyer doesn't back himself into a corner like that
Daniel Jeremiah has Mayfield as his 25th best player and Jenkins at 30.

How are you having this hard a time understanding everyones “BAP” board is different?
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(02-25-2021, 04:22 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: FTFY

I'm not sure what you don't like about Cosmi. He is big and long, very athletic, very experienced, and has excellent PFF grades on true pass sets. Maybe you're overanalyzing his performance on quirky college offense stuff that he won't be doing in the NFL?
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(02-25-2021, 06:08 PM)Upper Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 04:22 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: FTFY

I'm not sure what you don't like about Cosmi. He is big and long, very athletic, very experienced, and has excellent PFF grades on true pass sets. Maybe you're overanalyzing his performance on quirky college offense stuff that he won't be doing in the NFL?

I don't like him in pass protection. He gets beaten way too much for my taste. I saw him whiff too much when I watched him play and he let faster DE's blow right by him.
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(02-25-2021, 04:45 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 04:14 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: That's what you call reaching for a position and not taking BPA, hopefully Meyer doesn't back himself into a corner like that
Daniel Jeremiah has Mayfield as his 25th best player and Jenkins at 30.

How are you having this hard a time understanding everyones “BAP” board is different?

I'm not talking about everyones board, I'm talking about Meyer and Baalke's board.  How are you still having a hard time understanding?  I seriously doubt all those OT will be at the top of their board when we pick.  But If their board looks like DJs and Moehrig hasn't been picked yet and Mayfield and Jenkins hasn't either, they need to take Moehrig if we didn't get a FS in FA because he is the 16th best player on their board .
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(02-25-2021, 06:38 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 04:45 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: Daniel Jeremiah has Mayfield as his 25th best player and Jenkins at 30.

How are you having this hard a time understanding everyones “BAP” board is different?

I'm not talking about everyones board, I'm talking about Meyer and Baalke's board.  How are you still having a hard time understanding?  I seriously doubt all those OT will be at the top of their board when we pick.  But If their board looks like DJs and Moehrig hasn't been picked yet and Mayfield and Jenkins hasn't either, they need to take Moehrig if we didn't get a FS in FA because he is the 16th best player on their board .
You have no idea what their board looks like (and neither do I).

My point is that you’re calling certain players reaches when in reality, you have absolutely no clue if they’re reaches or not. You just personally don’t like certain players.
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(02-25-2021, 07:16 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 06:38 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: I'm not talking about everyones board, I'm talking about Meyer and Baalke's board.  How are you still having a hard time understanding?  I seriously doubt all those OT will be at the top of their board when we pick.  But If their board looks like DJs and Moehrig hasn't been picked yet and Mayfield and Jenkins hasn't either, they need to take Moehrig if we didn't get a FS in FA because he is the 16th best player on their board .
You have no idea what their board looks like (and neither do I).

My point is that you’re calling certain players reaches when in reality, you have absolutely no clue if they’re reaches or not. You just personally don’t like certain players.
You are still missing the point and I'm not sure if you will ever get it.  Of course we don't know what their boards look like we are talking about what we feel like they should do.  It's highly unlikely they will have all those tackles at the top of the board when it's our pick at 25.  If they do feel they are the BPA then take him, but don't just take him because we need a tackle when we have other players rated higher that's sitting there like if their board was identical to DJs, they need to take Moehrig if he's available
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(02-25-2021, 07:30 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 07:16 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: You have no idea what their board looks like (and neither do I).

My point is that you’re calling certain players reaches when in reality, you have absolutely no clue if they’re reaches or not. You just personally don’t like certain players.
You are still missing the point and I'm not sure if you will ever get it.  Of course we don't know what their boards look like we are talking about what we feel like they should do.  It's highly unlikely they will have all those tackles at the top of the board when it's our pick at 25.  If they do feel they are the BPA then take him, but don't just take him because we need a tackle when we have other players rated higher that's sitting there like if their board was identical to DJs, they need to take Moehrig if he's available
I don’t think anyone is advocating for taking a massive reach on a tackle just to take a tackle. The positional value of a LT/RT trumps that of a safety. So when DJ has Moehrig ranked 16, it doesn’t mean that he would take him over every player after him. He had Chase Young as his top player last year however he said he would take Burrow at #1 if he was drafting. Why is that? He also had Nick Bosa as his best player in 2019 but again advocated for Murray.

Drafting players strictly off your BAP board will always catch up to you. You need to adjust, be fluid and notice trends that are happening. If the Jags draft strictly off BAP, then what’s to stop them from selecting Mac Jones at 25, Etienne at 33 and Harris at 45? They could all technically be the BAP on the board at the time.
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(This post was last modified: 02-25-2021, 09:05 PM by flgatorsandjags.)

(02-25-2021, 08:42 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 07:30 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: You are still missing the point and I'm not sure if you will ever get it.  Of course we don't know what their boards look like we are talking about what we feel like they should do.  It's highly unlikely they will have all those tackles at the top of the board when it's our pick at 25.  If they do feel they are the BPA then take him, but don't just take him because we need a tackle when we have other players rated higher that's sitting there like if their board was identical to DJs, they need to take Moehrig if he's available
I don’t think anyone is advocating for taking a massive reach on a tackle just to take a tackle. The positional value of a LT/RT trumps that of a safety. So when DJ has Moehrig ranked 16, it doesn’t mean that he would take him over every player after him. He had Chase Young as his top player last year however he said he would take Burrow at #1 if he was drafting. Why is that? He also had Nick Bosa as his best player in 2019 but again advocated for Murray.

Drafting players strictly off your BAP board will always catch up to you. You need to adjust, be fluid and notice trends that are happening. If the Jags draft strictly off BAP, then what’s to stop them from selecting Mac Jones at 25, Etienne at 33 and Harris at 45? They could all technically be the BAP on the board at the time.

This has been said many times, there is rare accasions you don't draft BPA, like if a guy wouldn't see the field or start or if you are stacked at a certain position.  Jones wouldn't see the field because of Lawrence.  90% of the time though yiu take BPA.  Arians said it best, drafting need gets yoiu fired ala Dave Caldwell. LT/RT is a more important position but give me the better player that's why I would tag Cam if we feel we can't get Okung or Williams that way we aren't backed into the corner to take a tackle. Im not sure how DJ drafts, Im with the GMs that draft BPA like Ozzie Newsome did 90% of the time
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(02-25-2021, 03:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 09:32 AM)Mikey Wrote: No way you tag him. He is nowhere nearly worthy of top 5 tackle money. Better strategy would be to get in touch with a cash-strapped team and offer a pick or two for a decent tackle.

I think we may make an offer, but it ain't gonna be top 5 money, unless Baalke really is that bad at his job.

The reason you would tag Cam is because there is no guarantee you can pull off a deal to get another LT that is an upgrade over Cam.

If you go after Trent and he declines, and the Chargers outbid us for Brown...what's left?

Okung & Villanueva?  Both are likely finished.

It's a rare circumstance that a team will trade away a viable LT.

The thing I don't like about this?


Quote:The NFL's franchise tag period opens today, February 23, and closes on March 9. Then free agency officially begins at the outset of the new league year on March 17

That means you have to commit to Cam before you even take a stab at any of those other options. If you tag Cam, you're pretty much taking the other options off the table. It's probably why we're exploring Brown presently, if the deal falls through, you then have to decide whether you break the bank for Williams, or break the bank for Cam.

I guess we could always roll Cam to the right, but do you want to pay $14M for a RT? And 20-ish for a bandaid at LT? Woof.
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(02-25-2021, 07:30 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 07:16 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: You have no idea what their board looks like (and neither do I).

My point is that you’re calling certain players reaches when in reality, you have absolutely no clue if they’re reaches or not. You just personally don’t like certain players.
You are still missing the point and I'm not sure if you will ever get it.  Of course we don't know what their boards look like we are talking about what we feel like they should do.  It's highly unlikely they will have all those tackles at the top of the board when it's our pick at 25.  If they do feel they are the BPA then take him, but don't just take him because we need a tackle when we have other players rated higher that's sitting there like if their board was identical to DJs, they need to take Moehrig if he's available

We go through this every year, too. Outside of top 5 or maybe 10, I highly doubt any team has a strictly ordinal ranking of every player available. Players are going to be in clusters. You're going to be weighing position of need, the draft pick's potential value, whether there are comparable players available later in the darft, scheme fit, and many other factors when making choices. It's not blind picking for need. It's not looking at a list and taking the top guy on the list every time.

With respect to your statement, though, if we have Moehrig, Mayfield, Eichenberg as late-first, early second rankings and all three are available, taking the safety may make me shoot my television, especially if Cam is gone and we miss out on Wiliams/Brown.
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(02-25-2021, 08:57 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 08:42 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: I don’t think anyone is advocating for taking a massive reach on a tackle just to take a tackle. The positional value of a LT/RT trumps that of a safety. So when DJ has Moehrig ranked 16, it doesn’t mean that he would take him over every player after him. He had Chase Young as his top player last year however he said he would take Burrow at #1 if he was drafting. Why is that? He also had Nick Bosa as his best player in 2019 but again advocated for Murray.

Drafting players strictly off your BAP board will always catch up to you. You need to adjust, be fluid and notice trends that are happening. If the Jags draft strictly off BAP, then what’s to stop them from selecting Mac Jones at 25, Etienne at 33 and Harris at 45? They could all technically be the BAP on the board at the time.

This has been said many times, there is rare accasions you don't draft BPA, like if a guy wouldn't see the field or start or if you are stacked at a certain position.  Jones wouldn't see the field because of Lawrence.  90% of the time though yiu take BPA.  Arians said it best, drafting need gets yoiu fired ala Dave Caldwell.  LT/RT is a more important position but give me the better player that's why I would tag Cam if we feel we can't get Okung or Williams that way we aren't backed into the corner to take a tackle.  Im not sure how DJ drafts,  Im with the GMs that draft BPA like Ozzie Newsome did 90% of the time

Why does the Venn diagram have to be two separate circles? And how do you know what Ozzie did? Without his board, you have no way to say with certainty that he was ever picking strictly by BPA or not blending value with need.

what you are describing is exactly what everyone else is saying - the best player available is a fluid ranking - a blend of need, talent, availability, and other factors. Nobody iis going in with a list of players ranked 1-400 and taking from the top every time it's their turn to choose. But you are right - if you take an OT at 25, and when 33 comes up, if OT is at the top of your board, and is head and shoulders above the rest of the guys available, the savvy GM either needs to find a trade partner to move off the pick and use that value elsewhere in the darft, or he's sacrificing value by taking a lower-tier athlete with the pick. Of course, you could get greedy and just take two of the top OT prospects and laugh at the other GMs... Big Grin
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(This post was last modified: 02-26-2021, 10:49 AM by Bullseye.)

(02-25-2021, 03:17 PM)Upper Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 03:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote: The reason you would tag Cam is because there is no guarantee you can pull off a deal to get another LT that is an upgrade over Cam.

If you go after Trent and he declines, and the Chargers outbid us for Brown...what's left?

Then you draft Jenkins or Cosmi or Radunz or Eichenberg at 25 and take the cheap upgrade.

Assuming those guys actually represent an acceptable level of upgrade over Cam...okay.

I don't like the idea of a rookie T protecting TLs blindside.

(02-26-2021, 09:32 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(02-25-2021, 03:04 PM)Bullseye Wrote: The reason you would tag Cam is because there is no guarantee you can pull off a deal to get another LT that is an upgrade over Cam.

If you go after Trent and he declines, and the Chargers outbid us for Brown...what's left?

Okung & Villanueva?  Both are likely finished.

It's a rare circumstance that a team will trade away a viable LT.

The thing I don't like about this?


Quote:The NFL's franchise tag period opens today, February 23, and closes on March 9. Then free agency officially begins at the outset of the new league year on March 17

That means you have to commit to Cam before you even take a stab at any of those other options. If you tag Cam, you're pretty much taking the other options off the table. It's probably why we're exploring Brown presently, if the deal falls through, you then have to decide whether you break the bank for Williams, or break the bank for Cam.

I guess we could always roll Cam to the right, but do you want to pay $14M for a RT? And 20-ish for a bandaid at LT? Woof.

Correct me if I am wrong, but can't teams remove franchise designations?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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