NFL rookie QBs: Reasonable expectations for Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance - Sports Illustrated

Trevor Lawrence
17 starts, 4,200 yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 or fewer interceptions, 65% completion rate
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We’re using Justin Herbert’s 2020 as a baseline for what is possible, though Herbert was working with a better offense and had a defense that generated more opportunities to score for that offense. This Jaguars’ roster is thin and will take time to develop. So, too, will Lawrence alongside his new coaches and coordinators. What’s fascinating here is how Urban Meyer will blend his core offensive philosophies with those of offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and passing game coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. In a previous marriage of a collegiate coach and a pro-style coordinator, Chip Kelly and Pat Shurmur, we saw the blend lean heavily toward the college coach’s preferences. With Kliff Kingsbury, who keeps a run-game coordinator but is himself the passing-game coordinator, we saw his Air Raid offense veer more toward your prototypical NFL scheme.
No matter which side of the coin Meyer falls on, it seems like he will bring his tendency to run inside zone to Jacksonville. With that is the need to establish a running game, and he brought with him a pair of offensive minds that have relied fairly heavily on the run during their time with young quarterbacks.
Let’s take a look at the run/pass splits for Meyer the last three years at Ohio State, along with Schottenheimer with Mark Sanchez and Bevell with Russell Wilson (format here is runs/passes per game).
• 2016 Ohio State: 31.5/44.8
• 2017 Ohio State: 31.4/42
• 2018 Ohio State: 40/40

• 2009 Jets: 24.5/37.9
• 2010 Jets: 32.8/33.4
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• 2012 Seahawks: 25.3/33.5
• 2013 Seahawks: 26.3/31.4

Both Schottenheimer and Bevell led the league in rushing attempts with rookie quarterbacks and then were second in rushing attempts the following year, which might be instructive as to what we’ll see in Lawrence’s early days. That’s why I’m not particularly bullish on his shattering the rookie touchdown record—or coming close to it for that matter. It seems like Jacksonville has made a lot of ancillary moves to prevent a kind of Andrew Luck–like burnout, which mounted over time due to the overdose of hits and the lack of potency with his offensive scheme. In Indianapolis, the belief was that Luck could overcome these things and that the coaching staff could elevate the players around him, instead of taking the common-sense precautions at the start. It would also seem that the insistence on having a Travis Etienne–type player means that Meyer is looking to create intermediate advantages in the passing game while using the passing game to create more space to run.
While it is dangerous to hock the advantages of running the football in today’s NFL media climate, the Packers, Titans and 49ers have all achieved success by marrying their pass- and run-game concepts. It would seem as though Jacksonville is trying to do the same, but with an inside zone philosophy and not an outside zone lean.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions seems kind of thin to me. I would expect something like 34/18. It's 17 games. It seems like any QB who starts 17 games would get 25 TDs without much effort. I think we'll be a lot more aggressive than that.

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25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions seems kind of thin to me.   I would expect something like 34/18.   It's 17 games.  It seems like any QB who starts 17 games would get 25 TDs without much effort.    I think we'll be a lot more aggressive than that.

You may be right.  Then again, Meyer may prefer to finish off drives with the running game whenever possible rather than have his rookie QB shoulder the weight.

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25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions seems kind of thin to me.   I would expect something like 34/18.   It's 17 games.  It seems like any QB who starts 17 games would get 25 TDs without much effort.    I think we'll be a lot more aggressive than that.

You may be right.  Then again, Meyer may prefer to finish off drives with the running game whenever possible rather than have his rookie QB shoulder the weight.

@...or pull TLaw in favor of some short yardage/jump pass specialist on the roster@

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Minshew had 21 td and 6 int in his rookie year so something better than this would be even more nice.

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Absolutely correct. I would pound the ball and then pound the ball some more. EVERY defense is going to be gunning for Tlaw. Protect him by RUNNING THE DAMN BALL

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"If you always do what you've always done, You'll always get what you always got"

Absolutely correct. I would pound the ball and then  pound the ball some more. EVERY defense is going to be gunning for Tlaw. Protect him by RUNNING THE DAMN BALL

I like this approach.

Under normal circumstances, I'd favor a run oriented approach.

Add in the fact we have a rookie QB behind a shaky OL, to me it's a no brainer.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Absolutely correct. I would pound the ball and then  pound the ball some more. EVERY defense is going to be gunning for Tlaw. Protect him by RUNNING THE DAMN BALL

I like this approach.

Under normal circumstances, I'd favor a run oriented approach.

Add in the fact we have a rookie QB behind a shaky OL, to me it's a no brainer.

Even though we have weapons at WR, i agree with you. D's always want a shot at a rokie QB and especially with the hype around Lawrence. Keeping him upright and healthy is so important. Robinsin showed he can carry the workload last season and adding Etienne and Hyde gives us a good rotation of guys to wear D's down with.

The good thing about having a proper QB is teams wont stack the box against us. We may have to earn that right but if we can get the run going and hurt teams with PA or deep balls then we could have a really nice O.

The main worry is what the D will be like. Last year they couldnt stop much which made us a pass first team just to try and keep up.

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Just curious to poll the group. Do you feel that our offense in 2021 is worse than the Chargers 2020 group? I agree their defense is/ was better, but I would think our offense is actually more talented around the rookie QB than their's was.

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Just curious to poll the group.  Do you feel that our offense in 2021 is worse than the Chargers 2020 group?  I agree their defense is/ was better, but I would think our offense is actually more talented around the rookie QB than their's was.

Great question. Depth wise, I think the Jags may have them but top end talent, Chargers win that one.

Keenan Allen is better than any WR the Jags have. Hunter Henry is absolutely better than any TE the Jags have and Eckler is one of the best receiving backs in the league.

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Just curious to poll the group.  Do you feel that our offense in 2021 is worse than the Chargers 2020 group?  I agree their defense is/ was better, but I would think our offense is actually more talented around the rookie QB than their's was.

Great question. Depth wise, I think the Jags may have them but top end talent, Chargers win that one.

Keenan Allen is better than any WR the Jags have. Hunter Henry is absolutely better than any TE the Jags have and Eckler is one of the best receiving backs in the league.

Without a doubt the chargers have talented offensive pieces, but if Etienne isn't at least as good as Ekeler, an undrafted free agent in 2017 with less than 1000 combined rushing and receiving yards last year, then Meyer should be publicly flogged.

Not to mention Lawrence should be a much better QB than Herbert based on talent, so having a season in that Herbert 2020 kind of area should be the Lawrence expectation.

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Great question. Depth wise, I think the Jags may have them but top end talent, Chargers win that one.

Keenan Allen is better than any WR the Jags have. Hunter Henry is absolutely better than any TE the Jags have and Eckler is one of the best receiving backs in the league.

Without a doubt the chargers have talented offensive pieces, but if Etienne isn't at least as good as Ekeler, an undrafted free agent in 2017 with less than 1000 combined rushing and receiving yards last year, then Meyer should be publicly flogged.

Not to mention Lawrence should be a much better QB than Herbert based on talent, so having a season in that Herbert 2020 kind of area should be the Lawrence expectation.

Ekler played in 10 games last season due to injury and had 930 combined rushing and receiving yards..... For a 16 game season, that's 1480 yards from scrimmage. Ekler is pretty special regardless if he was undrafted or not.

I agree that Lawrence should have a season like Herbert but even if he doesn't, I'm cool with it.

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Just curious to poll the group.  Do you feel that our offense in 2021 is worse than the Chargers 2020 group?  I agree their defense is/ was better, but I would think our offense is actually more talented around the rookie QB than their's was.

Great question. Depth wise, I think the Jags may have them but top end talent, Chargers win that one.

Keenan Allen is better than any WR the Jags have. Hunter Henry is absolutely better than any TE the Jags have and Eckler is one of the best receiving backs in the league.

Agreed. They have those few players that give them an edge but overall we look just as good.

The only other thing i think they have us beat on is a settled O system. Weve had i think 5 OC's in 5 years, each with their own ideas and systems. Hopefully we can have the current regime for  few years so we can get to the stage where we are fine tuning the O.

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Without a doubt the chargers have talented offensive pieces, but if Etienne isn't at least as good as Ekeler, an undrafted free agent in 2017 with less than 1000 combined rushing and receiving yards last year, then Meyer should be publicly flogged.

Not to mention Lawrence should be a much better QB than Herbert based on talent, so having a season in that Herbert 2020 kind of area should be the Lawrence expectation.

Ekler played in 10 games last season due to injury and had 930 combined rushing and receiving yards..... For a 16 game season, that's 1480 yards from scrimmage. Ekler is pretty special regardless if he was undrafted or not.

I agree that Lawrence should have a season like Herbert but even if he doesn't, I'm cool with it.

Ekeler is a good player, though I think you may think he's better than I think he is. However, if you take a running back in the first round he needs to come out of the gate as a top ten back in the league. Etienne needs to have a 1500 yards 10 TD type of season (rushing and receiving combined for both of those stats) to justify that kind of draft position. If Etienne is just a decent back, and not a great running back then then Meyer made a really stupid pick.

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Ekler played in 10 games last season due to injury and had 930 combined rushing and receiving yards..... For a 16 game season, that's 1480 yards from scrimmage. Ekler is pretty special regardless if he was undrafted or not.

I agree that Lawrence should have a season like Herbert but even if he doesn't, I'm cool with it.

Ekeler is a good player, though I think you may think he's better than I think he is. However, if you take a running back in the first round he needs to come out of the gate as a top ten back in the league. Etienne needs to have a 1500 yards 10 TD type of season (rushing and receiving combined for both of those stats) to justify that kind of draft position. If Etienne is just a decent back, and not a great running back then then Meyer made a really stupid pick.

I think if Etienne has a 1500 yd 10 TD type of season, then we got a steal at pick #25.

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Ekeler is a good player, though I think you may think he's better than I think he is. However, if you take a running back in the first round he needs to come out of the gate as a top ten back in the league. Etienne needs to have a 1500 yards 10 TD type of season (rushing and receiving combined for both of those stats) to justify that kind of draft position. If Etienne is just a decent back, and not a great running back then then Meyer made a really stupid pick.

I think if Etienne has a 1500 yd 10 TD type of season, then we got a steal at pick #25.

It saddens me to see such a lack of perspective around here. Do you know what James Robinson's did in 14 games last season for a bad team with bad QB play? If Etienne is a first round steal with those stats then what is Robinson?

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I think if Etienne has a 1500 yd 10 TD type of season, then we got a steal at pick #25.

It saddens me to see sick a lack of perspective around here. Do you know what James Robinson's did in 14 games last season for a bad team with bad QB play? If Etienne is a first round steal with those stats then what is Robinson?

An incredible steal.  No doubt.

Of course, if we had known he was that good, we would have drafted him.  So we were lucky.

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It saddens me to see sick a lack of perspective around here. Do you know what James Robinson's did in 14 games last season for a bad team with bad QB play? If Etienne is a first round steal with those stats then what is Robinson?

An incredible steal.  No doubt.

Of course, if we had known he was that good, we would have drafted him.  So we were lucky.

And Robinson wasn't even pro bowl at his position.

1500 yards and 10 TD would be what should be expected from a first round running back with 17 games. A first round running back should be a top ten player at his position with the low value placed on running backs. A first round running back needs to be a great player, not someone that needs a lack of production excused.

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SeldomRite

Ekler played in 10 games last season due to injury and had 930 combined rushing and receiving yards..... For a 16 game season, that's 1480 yards from scrimmage. Ekler is pretty special regardless if he was undrafted or not.

I agree that Lawrence should have a season like Herbert but even if he doesn't, I'm cool with it.

Ekeler is a good player, though I think you may think he's better than I think he is. However, if you take a running back in the first round he needs to come out of the gate as a top ten back in the league. Etienne needs to have a 1500 yards 10 TD type of season (rushing and receiving combined for both of those stats) to justify that kind of draft position. If Etienne is just a decent back, and not a great running back then then Meyer made a really stupid pick.

An incredible steal.  No doubt.

Of course, if we had known he was that good, we would have drafted him.  So we were lucky.

And Robinson wasn't even pro bowl at his position.

1500 yards and 10 TD would be what should be expected from a first round running back with 17 games. A first round running back should be a top ten player at his position with the low value placed on running backs. A first round running back needs to be a great player, not someone that needs a lack of production excused.

Regarding the bolded - 
While I despise the drafting of RBs in early rounds, your perspective of draft position justification is arbitrary and merely your own view. 
Etienne doesn't "need"  to achieve those numbers to justify his selection. 
That's something you've invented and I guarantee you the people that made the decision to draft him do not agree. It actually seems pretty clear they see him as a cog in a wheel of the scheme. An integral missing piece of a puzzle, but not a production workhorse.
 Lots of different ways to value players. 

It will be interesting to see if he is integral enough to "justify" the pick in the minds of fans, but I have a feeling you are going to be disappointed based on what you think "should be expected. 

Regarding the red: The pro bowl hasn't been a valid indicator of a player's worth for many, many years.

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SeldomRite

Ekeler is a good player, though I think you may think he's better than I think he is. However, if you take a running back in the first round he needs to come out of the gate as a top ten back in the league. Etienne needs to have a 1500 yards 10 TD type of season (rushing and receiving combined for both of those stats) to justify that kind of draft position. If Etienne is just a decent back, and not a great running back then then Meyer made a really stupid pick.

And Robinson wasn't even pro bowl at his position.

1500 yards and 10 TD would be what should be expected from a first round running back with 17 games. A first round running back should be a top ten player at his position with the low value placed on running backs. A first round running back needs to be a great player, not someone that needs a lack of production excused.

Regarding the bolded - 
While I despise the drafting of RBs in early rounds, your perspective of draft position justification is arbitrary and merely your own view. 
Etienne doesn't "need"  to achieve those numbers to justify his selection. 
That's something you've invented and I guarantee you the people that made the decision to draft him do not agree. It actually seems pretty clear they see him as a cog in a wheel of the scheme. An integral missing piece of a puzzle, but not a production workhorse.
 Lots of different ways to value players. 

It will be interesting to see if he is integral enough to "justify" the pick in the minds of fans, but I have a feeling you are going to be disappointed based on what you think "should be expected. 

Regarding the red: The pro bowl hasn't been a valid indicator of a player's worth for many, many years.

You're right, I don't cut the roster, and I have no doubt they'll talk him up until the day he's cut (it'll happen eventually one way or another), but there is a reality that cost carries expectation with it, and a first round pick is a high cost.

If your point is we have bozos running the show that don't understand value or its importance, you may be right. It may even be that you think they'll think a guy with low production is still valuable. That may be right, too, but I doubt it. The main way of measuring the value of a player is in production, though I'm sure if he's really making a difference without high production there will be some way of statistically measuring that, too.

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