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Major reason to pass on OT at 1

#1

This little tweet thread (the Tlaw part comes in the second half with rate numbers) gives a good visual to what we already know, Trevor is already really good at making his oline better than they are. More and more people are joining the bandwagon that says an average oline with no tomato cans (as Daniel Jeremiah put it) is enough to win it all if you have a true franchise QB. Trevor can do that. 

Loading up on pass rushers is the way to win. Use the #1 pick on that. 

https://twitter.com/KevinColePFF/status/...2635351042
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#2
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2022, 07:54 PM by TheO-LineMatters.)

Agreed. We MUST go Edge Rusher at #1. Anything else would set us back even further.
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#3

It's a deep draft for edge rushers. I don't think you must use the #1 pick to get one that can be productive.
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#4
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2022, 08:55 PM by Upper. Edited 1 time in total.)

(02-17-2022, 08:25 PM)ATLjag Wrote: It's a deep draft for edge rushers. I don't think you must use the #1 pick to get one that can be productive.

Draft 2 then, waves of pass rushers. Especially in this scheme.

If you're hellbent on not taking an EDGE then just take Hamilton. Pretty much everyone agrees he's the best pure player in this draft and we need another safety.
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#5

(02-17-2022, 08:25 PM)ATLjag Wrote: It's a deep draft for edge rushers.  I don't think you must use the #1 pick to get one that can be productive.

The 2 best players in the draft are Edge Rushers. That means you take an Edge Rusher. There isn't an OT in this draft worthy of a 1st round pick (maybe Trevor Penning), much less taking one #1 overall.
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#6

(02-17-2022, 08:36 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(02-17-2022, 08:25 PM)ATLjag Wrote: It's a deep draft for edge rushers.  I don't think you must use the #1 pick to get one that can be productive.

Agreed. We MUST go Edge Rusher at #1. Anything else would set us back even further.

The 2 best players in the draft are Edge Rushers. That means you take an Edge Rusher. There isn't an OT in this draft worthy of a 1st round pick (maybe Trevor Penning), much less taking one #1 overall.

Agreed.  I would like to see the Jags take the BAP with the #1 pick to realize full value, and edge rush is a good place to start.  I was just pointing out that the edge rusher position in the draft is quite deep, and a productive one can be obtained beyond the first pick.  If by chance the Jags get a favorable trade back offer for the top pick, other edge rushers are likely available if it is a position with a desire to address in the draft.
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#7

(02-18-2022, 07:29 AM)ATLjag Wrote:
(02-17-2022, 08:36 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: Agreed. We MUST go Edge Rusher at #1. Anything else would set us back even further.

The 2 best players in the draft are Edge Rushers. That means you take an Edge Rusher. There isn't an OT in this draft worthy of a 1st round pick (maybe Trevor Penning), much less taking one #1 overall.

Agreed.  I would like to see the Jags take the BAP with the #1 pick to realize full value, and edge rush is a good place to start.  I was just pointing out that the edge rusher position in the draft is quite deep, and a productive one can be obtained beyond the first pick.  If by chance the Jags get a favorable trade back offer for the top pick, other edge rushers are likely available if it is a position with a desire to address in the draft.
Agree with taking BPA.  One could feel Neal is the best player in this draft.  A positive with Neal is he can play either guard or tackle spot.  These last 2 SBs showed the importance of oline play.
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#8

(02-17-2022, 06:57 PM)Upper Wrote: This little tweet thread (the Tlaw part comes in the second half with rate numbers) gives a good visual to what we already know, Trevor is already really good at making his oline better than they are. More and more people are joining the bandwagon that says an average oline with no tomato cans (as Daniel Jeremiah put it) is enough to win it all if you have a true franchise QB. Trevor can do that. 

Loading up on pass rushers is the way to win. Use the #1 pick on that. 

https://twitter.com/KevinColePFF/status/...2635351042

While I get that, there's a few other factors to consider.

1) If we don't tag Cam or sign a great OL in FA, we are left relying on Little's to-be-determined ability to last a whole season at the second-most important position on our roster.
2) If the team thinks an OT can become the next Boselli, are you going to pass that up simply because you drafted a QB OT the year before (sorry, old habits die hard).
3) If the OLB crop is deeper and you can get both a franchise tackle and a feature rushman (miss you, Cullen), I think you have to consider that.
4) Would TLaw be any better if he weren't having to rely on his escapability to make plays? Or do you want him to have to win in spite of a fair-to-middling set of blockers in front of him?

I'm not advocating for OT at R1P1, but I can certainly understand the sentiment behind it. I honestly don't know what they'll do, but I also don't think the team will fail if we go OT instead of OLB.
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#9

I want an elite oline and elite pass rush
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#10

(02-18-2022, 09:53 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: I want an elite oline and elite pass rush

I want elite WRs
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#11

(02-18-2022, 09:53 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: I want an elite oline and elite pass rush
Sure hahah

Everyone wants that
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#12

(02-18-2022, 09:26 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-18-2022, 07:29 AM)ATLjag Wrote: Agreed.  I would like to see the Jags take the BAP with the #1 pick to realize full value, and edge rush is a good place to start.  I was just pointing out that the edge rusher position in the draft is quite deep, and a productive one can be obtained beyond the first pick.  If by chance the Jags get a favorable trade back offer for the top pick, other edge rushers are likely available if it is a position with a desire to address in the draft.
Agree with taking BPA.  One could feel Neal is the best player in this draft.  A positive with Neal is he can play either guard or tackle spot.  These last 2 SBs showed the importance of oline play.

One would be wrong then.
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#13

(02-18-2022, 10:07 AM)DTWD4∞ Wrote:
(02-18-2022, 09:53 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: I want an elite oline and elite pass rush

I want elite WRs

It would be nice, an elite TE would be nice as well.  I’m just kinda of echoing what Doug said, games are won in the trenches.  Build from the inside out.  Protect Trev and get to the QB.  If we can get a Mike Williams or Godwin and get a Dotson I think we will be good at WR
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#14
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2022, 10:39 AM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(02-18-2022, 09:47 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(02-17-2022, 06:57 PM)Upper Wrote: This little tweet thread (the Tlaw part comes in the second half with rate numbers) gives a good visual to what we already know, Trevor is already really good at making his oline better than they are. More and more people are joining the bandwagon that says an average oline with no tomato cans (as Daniel Jeremiah put it) is enough to win it all if you have a true franchise QB. Trevor can do that. 

Loading up on pass rushers is the way to win. Use the #1 pick on that. 

https://twitter.com/KevinColePFF/status/...2635351042

While I get that, there's a few other factors to consider.

1) If we don't tag Cam or sign a great OL in FA, we are left relying on Little's to-be-determined ability to last a whole season at the second-most important position on our roster.
2) If the team thinks an OT can become the next Boselli, are you going to pass that up simply because you drafted a QB OT the year before (sorry, old habits die hard).
3) If the OLB crop is deeper and you can get both a franchise tackle and a feature rushman (miss you, Cullen), I think you have to consider that.
4) Would TLaw be any better if he weren't having to rely on his escapability to make plays? Or do you want him to have to win in spite of a fair-to-middling set of blockers in front of him?

I'm not advocating for OT at R1P1, but I can certainly understand the sentiment behind it. I honestly don't know what they'll do, but I also don't think the team will fail if we go OT instead of OLB.

Normally, I would be pounding the table to draft an OT, but this class is one of the worst I've seen in years. I just don't see anyone worthy of using a first round pick on. You can't fit a square peg into a round hole. If the quality isn't there, you gotta look to other areas. There are no Tony Boselli or Trent Williams types in this draft. I wish to God there was, but there isn't. We spent a 2nd round pick on Little for better or for worse and we barely used him last season. It's time to see what he can do. I'd love to replace Cam Robinson, but if there is no better options (which at this point, it doesn't look like there is,) the best option is to retain him for another season via the franchise tag. That at least gives us serviceable starters at OT (Robinson and Little.) From there we can look for a swing Tackle in the middle rounds and we can focus on adding starting OG's and possibly a Center via free agency and the draft.

(02-18-2022, 10:29 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-18-2022, 10:07 AM)DTWD4∞ Wrote: I want elite WRs

It would be nice, an elite TE would be nice as well.  I’m just kinda of echoing what Doug said, games are won in the trenches.  Build from the inside out.  Protect Trev and get to the QB.  If we can get a Mike Williams or Godwin and get a Dotson I think we will be good at WR

Agreed about TE. If the BAP at #33 turns out to be a TE, so be it. I'm not opposed to giving Trevor good targets in any form we can, be it WR or TE. I just don't see us drawing any big name free agent WR's though. It would be great if we could get Mike Williams, but it's a longshot. I think if we land a premier WR, it'll be via a trade, which I'm not opposed to either.
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#15

(02-18-2022, 09:47 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(02-17-2022, 06:57 PM)Upper Wrote: This little tweet thread (the Tlaw part comes in the second half with rate numbers) gives a good visual to what we already know, Trevor is already really good at making his oline better than they are. More and more people are joining the bandwagon that says an average oline with no tomato cans (as Daniel Jeremiah put it) is enough to win it all if you have a true franchise QB. Trevor can do that. 

Loading up on pass rushers is the way to win. Use the #1 pick on that. 

https://twitter.com/KevinColePFF/status/...2635351042

While I get that, there's a few other factors to consider.

1) If we don't tag Cam or sign a great OL in FA, we are left relying on Little's to-be-determined ability to last a whole season at the second-most important position on our roster.
2) If the team thinks an OT can become the next Boselli, are you going to pass that up simply because you drafted a QB OT the year before (sorry, old habits die hard).

1. I think that is kind of the crux of the point. I don't think LT is the second most important position on the roster anymore. Pass rush and CB1 is far more important IMO, and I think you can easily argue that pass rush2, CB2, and WR1 is more important too. Maybe if, at some point, there is an OT so good that he is able to move around the oline at will to follow that stud EDGE no matter where he lines up.

2. If the OT was alone in his own tier then take the OT (or whatever position). No one is arguing that we sacrifice talent to take the EDGE. That's not the case here, however. The EDGE and OT are in the same tier, so we should go EDGE. If you're talking HOF Boselli vs HOF pass rusher the answer is unfortunately by a large margin the pass rusher.
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#16

Would rather see a trade down. I think you have to look at Hutchinson and Thibodeaux and determine which one of those two guys offers the most impact or potential in a 3 - 4 scheme.

Can Hutchinson move around? Can Thibodeaux potentially stand up at times and come screaming off the edge with Smoot playing with his fingers in the dirt next to him?

It'll be interesting. Again. Kind of dimming my views and opinions a little bit until free agency starts.

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#17

(02-18-2022, 12:14 PM)Upper Wrote:
(02-18-2022, 09:47 AM)Mikey Wrote: While I get that, there's a few other factors to consider.

1) If we don't tag Cam or sign a great OL in FA, we are left relying on Little's to-be-determined ability to last a whole season at the second-most important position on our roster.
2) If the team thinks an OT can become the next Boselli, are you going to pass that up simply because you drafted a QB OT the year before (sorry, old habits die hard).

1. I think that is kind of the crux of the point. I don't think LT is the second most important position on the roster anymore. Pass rush and CB1 is far more important IMO, and I think you can easily argue that pass rush2, CB2, and WR1 is more important too. Maybe if, at some point, there is an OT so good that he is able to move around the oline at will to follow that stud EDGE no matter where he lines up.

2. If the OT was alone in his own tier then take the OT (or whatever position). No one is arguing that we sacrifice talent to take the EDGE. That's not the case here, however. The EDGE and OT are in the same tier, so we should go EDGE. If you're talking HOF Boselli vs HOF pass rusher the answer is unfortunately by a large margin the pass rusher.

If Neal projects to be better at LT than Little, and Hutch/Thibs have average combines, you're still choosing to leave the Oline vulnerable for the next DFJ?
If you see the drop from Thibs/Hutch to some of the second round graded OLB to be minimal, do you still stand by your Dline or die philosophy?

Again, I don't necessarily understand a lot of the media's infatuation with Neal, as next to none even mention that Little was chosen early last year and appears to be the LT if nothing major occurs in the offseason. But, I'm also not going to deny that an exceptional player at LT wouldn't quickly become the focus of a coach who made a point of noting the trenches need to be won. I think these are fun discussions, as there's a lot more uncertainty this year than last, for a few reasons.

I agree with OLM that this is a wonky darft, and in true jaguar fashion, our pick either fails to line up with players at a position of need or the lack of star quality limits our options to move off the pick. I think no matter how it plays out, we'll be left with a feeling that we are settling.
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#18
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2022, 02:33 PM by Upper. Edited 1 time in total.)

(02-18-2022, 01:54 PM)Mikey Wrote:
(02-18-2022, 12:14 PM)Upper Wrote: 1. I think that is kind of the crux of the point. I don't think LT is the second most important position on the roster anymore. Pass rush and CB1 is far more important IMO, and I think you can easily argue that pass rush2, CB2, and WR1 is more important too. Maybe if, at some point, there is an OT so good that he is able to move around the oline at will to follow that stud EDGE no matter where he lines up.

2. If the OT was alone in his own tier then take the OT (or whatever position). No one is arguing that we sacrifice talent to take the EDGE. That's not the case here, however. The EDGE and OT are in the same tier, so we should go EDGE. If you're talking HOF Boselli vs HOF pass rusher the answer is unfortunately by a large margin the pass rusher.

If Neal projects to be better at LT than Little, and Hutch/Thibs have average combines, you're still choosing to leave the Oline vulnerable for the next DFJ?
If you see the drop from Thibs/Hutch to some of the second round graded OLB to be minimal, do you still stand by your Dline or die philosophy?

Well obviously I said that they are on the same tier as of now. Things are still subject to change. Neal can, and likely will, blow out the combine. I expect Hutch to disappoint. Maybe Thibs keeps giving these weird interviews and teams simply think he doesn't have the drive or work ethic. Who knows, maybe Neal is the glaring guy in a tier of his own come draft time. I don't expect that, I think Thibs blows out the combine also and the top tier post combine is Thibs, Neal, Cross, and Hamilton.

I am only saying that if they are the same tier then we should absolutely take the EDGE.
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#19

Currently we do not have an offensive line.
A new broom always sweeps clean.
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#20

(02-18-2022, 03:50 PM)Jag149 Wrote: Currently we do not have an offensive line.

on the contrary, I find many of them to be quite offensive.
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