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Superbowl and QB's less than 12.6% of Cap

#1

I heard on talk radio that no team has won the Superbowl with a cap figure of 12.6%.  That to me just didn't seem correct so I looked it up.  Well they are correct, in fact the number is lower if you take Tom Brady out of the equation. This makes a lot of sense as investing so much in one player has to limit the resources to acquire and maintain the other players needed.  With all the massive QB contracts being signed it will be something to watch going forward.  Green Bay has already had to let Adams walk.  Kansas City has 50% of their cap tied up in their top 4 players. (65% if you add 2 more)  Yea I know there are ways to "manufacture" space by adding void years, but that really sounds like a high risk alternative if not used prudently.  Are there any front line Saints without void years?? LOL 

This is something I will be watching with interest this year.

What do you guys think?
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#2
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2022, 04:11 PM by Caldrac. Edited 2 times in total.)

(03-20-2022, 04:05 PM)Jag149 Wrote: I heard on talk radio that no team has won the Superbowl with a cap figure of 12.6%.  That to me just didn't seem correct so I looked it up.  Well they are correct, in fact the number is lower if you take Tom Brady out of the equation. This makes a lot of sense as investing so much in one player has to limit the resources to acquire and maintain the other players needed.  With all the massive QB contracts being signed it will be something to watch going forward.  Green Bay has already had to let Adams walk.  Kansas City has 50% of their cap tied up in their top 4 players. (65% if you add 2 more)  Yea I know there are ways to "manufacture" space by adding void years, but that really sounds like a high risk alternative if not used prudently.  Are there any front line Saints without void years?? LOL 

This is something I will be watching with interest this year.

What do you guys think?

Agreed. Been saying that off and on for the past few weeks. That's why I don't care about Baalke and/or Pederson throwing a [BLEEP] ton of money at all of these players right now. Because:

A. It's not my money to begin with.

and

B. Eventually Lawrence will either boom or bust at his position and you're going to be in a position to where you have to blow it all up again and start over at QB, or, you're going to have to give him a crazy [BLEEP] deal that ties up a huge portion of your cap space. 

Look at Kansas City, for example. They got into back-to-back shootouts in the play-off's and their luck eventually ran out on offense. Had they had better players defensively, or, a more evenly distributed level of play along the front four and back seven? You may end up getting off the field a few times in the 2nd half and just having to run the clock out instead. 

Rodgers is going to have to get it done in Green Bay now without Adams. Assuming they use all of those draft picks they landed from Vegas to turn right back around and draft a bunch of unproven rookies, that's great. I guess...

They couldn't get it done at home against San Francisco though on offense with Adams. So, we'll see. 

They have a small window here to win it with Lawrence in a rookie contract.
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#3

(03-20-2022, 04:05 PM)Jag149 Wrote: I heard on talk radio that no team has won the Superbowl with a cap figure of 12.6%.  That to me just didn't seem correct so I looked it up.  Well they are correct, in fact the number is lower if you take Tom Brady out of the equation. This makes a lot of sense as investing so much in one player has to limit the resources to acquire and maintain the other players needed.  With all the massive QB contracts being signed it will be something to watch going forward.  Green Bay has already had to let Adams walk.  Kansas City has 50% of their cap tied up in their top 4 players. (65% if you add 2 more)  Yea I know there are ways to "manufacture" space by adding void years, but that really sounds like a high risk alternative if not used prudently.  Are there any front line Saints without void years?? LOL 

This is something I will be watching with interest this year.

What do you guys think?

As counter intuitive as it is, I have felt this for a while.  Right now, Jacksonville is in its best theoretical window of opportunity, having your QB on a rookie contract.  

Also, Tom Brady is an outlier.  He's the over the top Franchise QB that makes any team a contender, but has a supermodel wife that earns enough to make his salary almost irrelevant.  He has also dominated the era that has seen the largest inflation in QB salaries.  In the next few years I think that you will see a Maholmes, Stafford, Rogers Etc. grab one.
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#4

(03-20-2022, 05:20 PM)jj82284 Wrote:
(03-20-2022, 04:05 PM)Jag149 Wrote: I heard on talk radio that no team has won the Superbowl with a cap figure of 12.6%.  That to me just didn't seem correct so I looked it up.  Well they are correct, in fact the number is lower if you take Tom Brady out of the equation. This makes a lot of sense as investing so much in one player has to limit the resources to acquire and maintain the other players needed.  With all the massive QB contracts being signed it will be something to watch going forward.  Green Bay has already had to let Adams walk.  Kansas City has 50% of their cap tied up in their top 4 players. (65% if you add 2 more)  Yea I know there are ways to "manufacture" space by adding void years, but that really sounds like a high risk alternative if not used prudently.  Are there any front line Saints without void years?? LOL 

This is something I will be watching with interest this year.

What do you guys think?

As counter intuitive as it is, I have felt this for a while.  Right now, Jacksonville is in its best theoretical window of opportunity, having your QB on a rookie contract.  

Also, Tom Brady is an outlier.  He's the over the top Franchise QB that makes any team a contender, but has a supermodel wife that earns enough to make his salary almost irrelevant.  He has also dominated the era that has seen the largest inflation in QB salaries.  In the next few years I think that you will see a Maholmes, Stafford, Rogers Etc. grab one.

Sherlock Maholmes xD
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#5

(03-20-2022, 04:05 PM)Jag149 Wrote: I heard on talk radio that no team has won the Superbowl with a cap figure of 12.6%.  That to me just didn't seem correct so I looked it up.  Well they are correct, in fact the number is lower if you take Tom Brady out of the equation. This makes a lot of sense as investing so much in one player has to limit the resources to acquire and maintain the other players needed.  With all the massive QB contracts being signed it will be something to watch going forward.  Green Bay has already had to let Adams walk.  Kansas City has 50% of their cap tied up in their top 4 players. (65% if you add 2 more)  Yea I know there are ways to "manufacture" space by adding void years, but that really sounds like a high risk alternative if not used prudently.  Are there any front line Saints without void years?? LOL 

This is something I will be watching with interest this year.

What do you guys think?

The challenge when one or two of your players eat a significant portion of cap is either to draft exceptionally well or know how to get bargains in FA.

The trade off is that your roster ends up young and inexperienced, or the FA pickups leave you in continual churn and there is inconsistency. A good team should be able to overcome those hindrances, though.

It can be done. You just have to be resourceful.
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#6

it works if you can get elite older talent to play on the cheap
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#7

(03-20-2022, 04:05 PM)Jag149 Wrote: I heard on talk radio that no team has won the Superbowl with a cap figure of 12.6%.  That to me just didn't seem correct so I looked it up.  Well they are correct, in fact the number is lower if you take Tom Brady out of the equation. This makes a lot of sense as investing so much in one player has to limit the resources to acquire and maintain the other players needed.  With all the massive QB contracts being signed it will be something to watch going forward.  Green Bay has already had to let Adams walk.  Kansas City has 50% of their cap tied up in their top 4 players. (65% if you add 2 more)  Yea I know there are ways to "manufacture" space by adding void years, but that really sounds like a high risk alternative if not used prudently.  Are there any front line Saints without void years?? LOL 

This is something I will be watching with interest this year.

What do you guys think?

So I've always wanted a stat like this, but I'm a bit wary on limiting it to Super Bowl winners given the nature of Super Bowls being 1 game and how random variables can affect 1 game. As a result, the power and sampling error can affect such a stat especially when you limit it this to era of football because QB's in the 90's or 00's is asked to do very different things than ones in today's NFL.

I would be interested if the search was widened to as at least Super Bowl appearances, or even Conference Games and see if that alters the target cap percentage number, or even a 95 range/CI with number of outliers.
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#8

Here is a link. if you scroll down you can see all the Superbowls from 2000 and the teams that lost. (followed by some stats only a few will love)


https://www.spotrac.com/spots/super-bowl...ages-1397/
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