https://twitter.com/Demetrius82/status/1...v3RY6RLTcg

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https://twitter.com/_John_Shipley/status...v3RY6RLTcg

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Apologies. Posted in wrong thread My latest posts were supposed to go to training camp udates thread

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Depends how you look at it honestly. I think (not basing this on actual stats, just what I remember personally) ...

Basing it on actual stats:

Most QBs who are not in the elite percentage of "under pressure pass completion" will dip between 10% and 20 % in their completion percentage while under pressure. 

For instance, Matt Ryan, who we now face twice a year in our division, saw his completion percentage drop by 11% when pressured in 2021 - and that actually placed him in the top ten as one of the best under pressure. 

There may only be 4 or 5 QBs on our schedule this season who will not suffer a 12% (and often much greater) reduction in completion percentage when pressured. 

That amount of incompletions will absolutely affect the scoreboard in most of those games.

Pressures are good, they are effective, and dismissing them is a fools errand.

Anecdotes about a former 1st round pick pass rusher turned journeyman rotational guy who has had 2 good seasons out of eight years in the league don't tell us anything about the effect pressures have on quarterbacks league wide.

I agree and would even go a little further to point out that pressures help more than just lowering the quarterback's completion percentage.  I don't think it is hard for even the untrained eye to see that interceptions occur much more frequently when the quarterback is under pressure versus when they have all day to throw.

Also, all completions are not equal.  If a defense quickly puts pressure on the quarterback, maybe he gets a "completion", but it's a dump off to a player for a loss or for short yardage on 3rd and long.  Even if it is first down, a quick pressure often means a short completion while no pressure might have meant a big play.  Forcing the other team into dinking and dunking is a good thing.  Make the other team work for their scores.

For the record, I do prefer a sack to a pressure, but ideally would want both to be high.  I also recognize that sacks, pressures, and almost any NFL stat can be misleading depending upon the circumstances.

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Got his [BLEEP] 

https://twitter.com/caitlinxfilm/status/...5877149696

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We need a disrupter. Each player can open up opportunities for others on this deffense. I cant put a number on it. Walkre just needs to give the opponent all that they cant handle

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I am aiming high for him and Josh Allen this year. I told 1010XL yesterday I want to see Allen hit 14.5. Which would tie the franchise mark and I said I would be happy if Walker hit 9.5 sacks as a rookie this year. Devin Lloyd getting 7.5 as well. I know that's 30 sacks between three players but I fully expect the defense to be the bread winner this year and shutting down the ground game. Couple that in with a division where they rely heavily on the ground game and you've got QB's like Matt Ryan twice a year to feast on?

I think it's possible. Especially if this offense sneaks up on teams early and gets a jump up on the scoreboard. We have a Superbowl winning coach, a competent roster on paper for now, a really good looking draft class now from last year and so far this year it appears promising. Expectations need to be high. [BLEEP] all of this shooting for just below average or average. I expect this team to make some waves this year and I expect them to start making serious runs and holding real contention in this AFC South for the next decade.

Bad teams can get really, really good really, really fast with the right coaching staff and some lucky breaks here and there. I don't see why Jacksonville can't fall into this same trend and category in 2022.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Got his [BLEEP] 

https://twitter.com/caitlinxfilm/status/...5877149696

Now who is going to clean that crap up?  Guess that will teach him not to leave his car unlocked.

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So you're under the assumption that a guy busting through the line immediately as the play begins causing the qb to panic and make a mistake is the same thing as a guy who got blocked for 2-3 seconds, qb holds the ball a little too long guy gets free and then the pass gets completed but still counts as a pressure because the guy was free right b4 the throw is the same thing?
Seems the fowler comparison was extremely important since you clearly have no clue what i'm talking about based on your response.

Cause it's not, and you're wrong.

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NO

I'm not under any assumption at all. 

I'm spoon feeding you very basic and simple information statistically about how pressure reduces completion percentage greatly for most NFL quarterbacks and reduces it marginally for the few elite quarterbacks. 

But you are being a [BLEEP] tool as usual and trying to get hung up on the trees while ignoring the giant forest staring you in your dumb [BLEEP] face.

Pretty much how every conversation with him ends up at one point or another.

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So you're under the assumption that a guy busting through the line immediately as the play begins causing the qb to panic and make a mistake is the same thing as a guy who got blocked for 2-3 seconds, qb holds the ball a little too long guy gets free and then the pass gets completed but still counts as a pressure because the guy was free right b4 the throw is the same thing?
Seems the fowler comparison was extremely important since you clearly have no clue what i'm talking about based on your response.

Cause it's not, and you're wrong.

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NO

I'm not under any assumption at all. 

I'm spoon feeding you very basic and simple information statistically about how pressure reduces completion percentage greatly for most NFL quarterbacks and reduces it marginally for the few elite quarterbacks. 

But you are being a [BLEEP] tool as usual and trying to get hung up on the trees while ignoring the giant forest staring you in your dumb [BLEEP] face.

No you just read things how you want to read them. You really have no business being a forum moderator, you're probably a 50 year old who acts like you're 12. Grow up, you literally will not accept it when you're wrong. It's embarassing as hell.

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NO

I'm not under any assumption at all. 

I'm spoon feeding you very basic and simple information statistically about how pressure reduces completion percentage greatly for most NFL quarterbacks and reduces it marginally for the few elite quarterbacks. 

But you are being a [BLEEP] tool as usual and trying to get hung up on the trees while ignoring the giant forest staring you in your dumb [BLEEP] face.

No you just read things how you want to read them. You really have no business being a forum moderator, you're probably a 50 year old who acts like you're 12. Grow up, you literally will not accept it when you're wrong. It's embarassing as hell.

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Depends how you look at it honestly. I think (not basing this on actual stats, just what I remember personally) ...

Basing it on actual stats:

Most QBs who are not in the elite percentage of "under pressure pass completion" will dip between 10% and 20 % in their completion percentage while under pressure. 

For instance, Matt Ryan, who we now face twice a year in our division, saw his completion percentage drop by 11% when pressured in 2021 - and that actually placed him in the top ten as one of the best under pressure. 

There may only be 4 or 5 QBs on our schedule this season who will not suffer a 12% (and often much greater) reduction in completion percentage when pressured. 

That amount of incompletions will absolutely affect the scoreboard in most of those games.

Pressures are good, they are effective, and dismissing them is a fools errand.

Anecdotes about a former 1st round pick pass rusher turned journeyman rotational guy who has had 2 good seasons out of eight years in the league don't tell us anything about the effect pressures have on quarterbacks league wide.

Where in this thread did I say pressures weren't a good thing? All I'm saying is that every pressure is not equal. Every sack is. Every sack ends the play, in a loss of yards. a QB can throw a td while also being pressured, how dense are you?

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Basing it on actual stats:

Most QBs who are not in the elite percentage of "under pressure pass completion" will dip between 10% and 20 % in their completion percentage while under pressure. 

For instance, Matt Ryan, who we now face twice a year in our division, saw his completion percentage drop by 11% when pressured in 2021 - and that actually placed him in the top ten as one of the best under pressure. 

There may only be 4 or 5 QBs on our schedule this season who will not suffer a 12% (and often much greater) reduction in completion percentage when pressured. 

That amount of incompletions will absolutely affect the scoreboard in most of those games.

Pressures are good, they are effective, and dismissing them is a fools errand.

Anecdotes about a former 1st round pick pass rusher turned journeyman rotational guy who has had 2 good seasons out of eight years in the league don't tell us anything about the effect pressures have on quarterbacks league wide.

Where in this thread did I say pressures weren't a good thing? All I'm saying is that every pressure is not equal. Every sack is. Every sack ends the play, in a loss of yards. a QB can throw a td while also being pressured, how dense are you?

Last chance for you to understand this very simple concept. Good luck, I won't be explaining it further. 

The statistics showing that quarterbacks suffer in completion percentage when pressured don't care about the ineffective pressures you are stuck on (for some unknown reason.) The statistics are taking the entire lot of pressures recorded - both effective and ineffective in offensive outcome - and the result is that they negatively impact QBs' accuracy and completion rate. 

You called these ineffective pressures meaningless and harped on that subset of pressures in three posts. 

I am merely explaining that you can throw that anecdotal information out the window and just focus on the fact that pressures affect the quarterbacks negatively and there is a ton of statistical data to support it. Ineffective pressures be damned. Like many things in football, it doesn't work perfectly every time. 

Here are your original words that you may have forgotten:

Depends how you look at it honestly. I think (not basing this on actual stats, just what I remember personally) that Dante Fowler had a knack for just almost sacking qbs.. often times he's either miss them or just be a second too late and the play would end up going well for the opposing team. In that scenario, Pressures are meaningless.. now if you got a guy whos bursting threw the line and causing the qb to dip out or throw the ball away out of fear.. that's another story.

Why continue to focus on a subset of pressures when you've been shown that a QB's completion % will dip 10-20% if he's pressured consistently? 

I'll give you more to help illustrate my point.

In the game vs. Buffalo last year, Allen, Smoot, RRH and other defenders pressured the other Josh Allen 21 times. (big number) 
Over 30% of his drop backs received pressure. The result speaks for itself. 

If you look at the pressures in late season games from Wentz last year, you'll see he was pressured on 20% of his targets vs the tinhorns and threw a 71% comp rate (31-0 win)
Versus the Jags a few weeks later, he was pressured 30% of the time and threw a 58% comp rate. 
(26-11 loss)

If this isn't helping you understand that those ineffective pressures don't mean [BLEEP] in the grand scale of pass rush, I can't help you. 

Whiffs at the quarterback are just the price of doing business as a pass rusher. The good pressures add up to very important impact regardless, and many that don't end up in a sack still end possessions.

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He could be a dominant player in that position without tons of sacks.

This is what I expect. Maybe at some point he becomes a sack artist but he’s just not a rusher. I expect 3 or 4 sacks and to be a dominant presence vs the run.

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He could be a dominant player in that position without tons of sacks.

This is what I expect. Maybe at some point he becomes a sack artist but he’s just not a rusher. I expect 3 or 4 sacks and to be a dominant presence vs the run.

While that would be perfectly fine of him and worthy of a long career, it would be a failure of the #1 overall pick. Again though, it's not his fault. It would be like the Alualu situation. A very solid, long term starter who was drafted higher than he should have been but you still wouldn't mind having on your team.

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91%

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Looking to troll? Don't bother, we supply our own.

 

 

This is what I expect. Maybe at some point he becomes a sack artist but he’s just not a rusher. I expect 3 or 4 sacks and to be a dominant presence vs the run.

While that would be perfectly fine of him and worthy of a long career, it would be a failure of the #1 overall pick. Again though, it's not his fault. It would be like the Alualu situation. A very solid, long term starter who was drafted higher than he should have been but you still wouldn't mind having on your team.

I think he will be a much better player than Alu.  I think he will be a perennial Pro Bowler

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91%

Well, we have failed to replace #91 for several years now, so...

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While that would be perfectly fine of him and worthy of a long career, it would be a failure of the #1 overall pick. Again though, it's not his fault. It would be like the Alualu situation. A very solid, long term starter who was drafted higher than he should have been but you still wouldn't mind having on your team.

I think he will be a much better player than Alu.  I think he will be a perennial Pro Bowler

I agree. I think he'll be very good, especially after his performance in camp so far.

I was just saying a #1 overall pick who doesn't rack up sacks isn't what you want from a #1 overall pick. Wouldn't necessarily make them a bad player but not #1 worthy. But again, I personally think Walker will live up to the #1 and post some big sack numbers year 2 and beyond. Possibly even this year but doubtful just because he's raw.

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Where in this thread did I say pressures weren't a good thing? All I'm saying is that every pressure is not equal. Every sack is. Every sack ends the play, in a loss of yards. a QB can throw a td while also being pressured, how dense are you?

Last chance for you to understand this very simple concept. Good luck, I won't be explaining it further. 

The statistics showing that quarterbacks suffer in completion percentage when pressured don't care about the ineffective pressures you are stuck on (for some unknown reason.) The statistics are taking the entire lot of pressures recorded - both effective and ineffective in offensive outcome - and the result is that they negatively impact QBs' accuracy and completion rate. 

You called these ineffective pressures meaningless and harped on that subset of pressures in three posts. 

I am merely explaining that you can throw that anecdotal information out the window and just focus on the fact that pressures affect the quarterbacks negatively and there is a ton of statistical data to support it. Ineffective pressures be damned. Like many things in football, it doesn't work perfectly every time. 

Here are your original words that you may have forgotten:

Depends how you look at it honestly. I think (not basing this on actual stats, just what I remember personally) that Dante Fowler had a knack for just almost sacking qbs.. often times he's either miss them or just be a second too late and the play would end up going well for the opposing team. In that scenario, Pressures are meaningless.. now if you got a guy whos bursting threw the line and causing the qb to dip out or throw the ball away out of fear.. that's another story.

Why continue to focus on a subset of pressures when you've been shown that a QB's completion % will dip 10-20% if he's pressured consistently? 

I'll give you more to help illustrate my point.

In the game vs. Buffalo last year, Allen, Smoot, RRH and other defenders pressured the other Josh Allen 21 times. (big number) 
Over 30% of his drop backs received pressure. The result speaks for itself. 

If you look at the pressures in late season games from Wentz last year, you'll see he was pressured on 20% of his targets vs the tinhorns and threw a 71% comp rate (31-0 win)
Versus the Jags a few weeks later, he was pressured 30% of the time and threw a 58% comp rate. 
(26-11 loss)

If this isn't helping you understand that those ineffective pressures don't mean [BLEEP] in the grand scale of pass rush, I can't help you. 

Whiffs at the quarterback are just the price of doing business as a pass rusher. The good pressures add up to very important impact regardless, and many that don't end up in a sack still end possessions.

I don't even bother reading the majority of the books you call a post at this point, because it's almost never worth the effort. 

Your stats are meaningless to what I was saying. Not once again, did I say pressures aren't a good thing all I said was it's not a concrete stat like a sack. Do you even realise how stupid you sound arguing this point? Can you imagine if I said well trevor lawrence threw 5 picks with a clean pocket out of his 17, therefore based on my nerd stats this and this percent of plays with a clean pocket turned out to be interceptions therefore a clean pocket isn't ideal. 

Sounds really stupid right? Because it is. The stat is subjective, because a pressure can be attributed to a guy who took 35 seconds to get through the line and is running up on the qb right before he throws it. No kidding buddy, an edge rusher getting through the line quickly and disrupting the play is obviously a good thing.. but as a stat, it's not as important as a sack which stops the play in a loss of yards every time, not just sometimes. A sack dosen't sometimes end up in a touchdown pass. 

I swear everytime you argue anything with me it's always you taking something I say and completely twisting it to fit whatever brain dead argument you're trying to have. You just spent 4-5 posts trying to convince me that pressures on the QB are a good thing, as if I said it wasn't. Lmao jesus christ man.

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I know we all talked about this during the draft but the reality is there wasn't an elite player worthy of the #1 overall pick. Whether we took Walker or Hutchinson, the expectations of being #1 were probably going to be too high. Based on reports and things I've heard it sounds like Walker is going to walk into the NFL already as a good run defender. Will he develop into a big sack guy? Who knows. It doesnt seem like he is going to be a guy you expect to get double digit sacks every year. And definitely not as a rookie. I've read a few people talk about how he will be a great run defender who clogs up the line allowing others to make plays. You don't typically draft a guy #1 overall to be that. I've also read others who hope if nothing else he can be disruptive and get pressure even if not many sacks. I think those go hand in hand. Get enough pressures you'll get sacks.

As far as a number, it'd be disappointing if he was anything less than 3 or 4. Realistic but hopeful he is a beast against the run, great hustle, great rotation guy, versatile in where he could line up, and he gets us 5-6 sacks. Pie in the sky they hit a home run and he is a guy who is a threat to get double digit sacks a year.

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Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.