I'm looking at the numbers, other players, and team needs and it seems to me that Allen is gone. Though there are two things in his favor.

The injury to Smoot and this coming season isn't his free agent season. I'm thinking that if not for Smoot injury (and I forgot if it's serious) the team would be fine rolling with Smoot, Key, and Walker. And possibly finding a cheaper but effective free agent.

So do yall think last season was Allen's last or they'll give him one more?

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I'm looking at the numbers, other players, and team needs and it seems to me that Allen is gone. Though there are two things in his favor.

The injury to Smoot and this coming season isn't his free agent season. I'm thinking that if not for Smoot injury (and I forgot if it's serious) the team would be fine rolling with Smoot, Key, and Walker. And possibly finding a cheaper but effective free agent.

So do yall think last season was Allen's last or they'll give him one more?

A few things to get you informed about here:

1. Josh Allen is under contract in 2023 for 10 million - he's not going anywhere in 2023 but back to work in Jax
   
2. Key is not under contract and may not be signed by the Jags if he chases the money
   
3. You aren't going to find a cheaper but effective OLB free agent for that money - your options are cheap OR effective
   
4. They already gave him one more season
   
5. He's listed statistically by PFF as the 23rd best pass rusher in the league - that is valuable even if he underwhelmed in a few games this year
   

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I'm looking at the numbers, other players, and team needs and it seems to me that Allen is gone. Though there are two things in his favor.

The injury to Smoot and this coming season isn't his free agent season. I'm thinking that if not for Smoot injury (and I forgot if it's serious) the team would be fine rolling with Smoot, Key, and Walker. And possibly finding a cheaper but effective free agent.

So do yall think last season was Allen's last or they'll give him one more?

Why in the world would be cut our best edge rusher when he's still under contract?

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I'm looking at the numbers, other players, and team needs and it seems to me that Allen is gone. Though there are two things in his favor.

The injury to Smoot and this coming season isn't his free agent season. I'm thinking that if not for Smoot injury (and I forgot if it's serious) the team would be fine rolling with Smoot, Key, and Walker. And possibly finding a cheaper but effective free agent.

So do yall think last season was Allen's last or they'll give him one more?

Smoot might not even be able to play the entire 2023 season following his Achilles injury.

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I'm looking at the numbers, other players, and team needs and it seems to me that Allen is gone. Though there are two things in his favor.

The injury to Smoot and this coming season isn't his free agent season. I'm thinking that if not for Smoot injury (and I forgot if it's serious) the team would be fine rolling with Smoot, Key, and Walker. And possibly finding a cheaper but effective free agent.

So do yall think last season was Allen's last or they'll give him one more?

A few things to get you informed about here:

1. Josh Allen is under contract in 2023 for 10 million - he's not going anywhere in 2023 but back to work in Jax
   
2. Key is not under contract and may not be signed by the Jags if he chases the money
   
3. You aren't going to find a cheaper but effective OLB free agent for that money - your options are cheap OR effective
   
4. They already gave him one more season
   
5. He's listed statistically by PFF as the 23rd best pass rusher in the league - that is valuable even if he underwhelmed in a few games this year
   

Ok that's what I wasn't sure about, him being under contract, and for onlyb10 milli.

I think the injury to Smoot came at the worst time. Key may get the contract he was going to get. As Key and Smoot seemed to put more pressure on the QB at least by the eye test.

Allen underwhelmed in 3/4 of the season I'd say.

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I'm looking at the numbers, other players, and team needs and it seems to me that Allen is gone. Though there are two things in his favor.

The injury to Smoot and this coming season isn't his free agent season. I'm thinking that if not for Smoot injury (and I forgot if it's serious) the team would be fine rolling with Smoot, Key, and Walker. And possibly finding a cheaper but effective free agent.

So do yall think last season was Allen's last or they'll give him one more?

Smoot might not even be able to play the entire 2023 season following his Achilles injury.

I forgot it was a Achilles injury. I think Key can get his contract. A tough break for Smoot smh.

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I'm looking at the numbers, other players, and team needs and it seems to me that Allen is gone. Though there are two things in his favor.

The injury to Smoot and this coming season isn't his free agent season. I'm thinking that if not for Smoot injury (and I forgot if it's serious) the team would be fine rolling with Smoot, Key, and Walker. And possibly finding a cheaper but effective free agent.

So do yall think last season was Allen's last or they'll give him one more?

Smoot might not even be able to play the entire 2023 season following his Achilles injury.

You could give him a team friendly 2 year deal that is most roster bonus and incentive based in the 2nd year?

Productive flex DE/DT's who can move the pocket seem to be hard to come by.

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I think this coming season will be Allen's last as a Jaguar. He has been underwhelming ever since Ngakoue and Campbell left. He normally has 1-3 really good games a season and then disappears the rest of the time. I'm hoping we can find his eventual replacement somewhere in this draft.

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If the team wants to keep Allen it should be an incentive based contract. No serious guaranteed money.

How many of you guys would give him a 4 year $64 million deal or close to it? Just a guess at what he will ask for.

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No.

/thread

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

If the team wants to keep Allen it should be an incentive based contract. No serious guaranteed money.

How many of you guys would give him a 4 year $64 million deal or close to it? Just a guess at what he will ask for.

Can we just see him play in 2023 first? 
why prematurely decide his worth?

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I was ready to get rid of him last year before the trade deadline. Glad I am not the General Manager. Would have been premature and a bad decision in the grand scheme of things.

As much as I harp on actual sacks Vs. pressures? He's still the only real viable option we have at the moment coming off the edge. He also turned it up in December. That's what a veteran does for you.

He gets one more year here at the minimum. I hope he goes off personally. Would like to see him crush the single season franchise mark in sacks while also enabling other guys around him like Travon Walker, Fatukasi, etc.

We'll see what happens in March and April though. Fully expect Baalke and Co. to begin addressing the lack of pass rush in the interior and the lack of pass protection in the interior this off season.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

If the team wants to keep Allen it should be an incentive based contract. No serious guaranteed money.

How many of you guys would give him a 4 year $64 million deal or close to it? Just a guess at what he will ask for.

Can we just see him play in 2023 first? 
why prematurely decide his worth?

The organization might want to extend his contract and prevent him from even entering free agency. If so, how much is the offer?

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If the team wants to keep Allen it should be an incentive based contract. No serious guaranteed money.

How many of you guys would give him a 4 year $64 million deal or close to it? Just a guess at what he will ask for.

Pass, unless he miraculously has a 2023 season better than his rookie year.

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Can we just see him play in 2023 first? 
why prematurely decide his worth?

The organization might want to extend his contract and prevent him from even entering free agency. If so, how much is the offer?

I'd just let him show me what he's worth instead of extending him prematurely. 

If you were over a barrel and had to pay him on an extension now for some mysterious reason, which we do not have,  the numbers he's put up thus far say he's worth about 14 million per year. 

That's 5.7 million less per year than the current franchise tag at the position if anyone needs reference/comparison.

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get good trade value and upgrade the secondary. The Walker/Allen tandem was not working as I had hoped. But I also don't like our DC so there's that.

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I'm looking at the numbers, other players, and team needs and it seems to me that Allen is gone. Though there are two things in his favor.

The injury to Smoot and this coming season isn't his free agent season. I'm thinking that if not for Smoot injury (and I forgot if it's serious) the team would be fine rolling with Smoot, Key, and Walker. And possibly finding a cheaper but effective free agent.

So do yall think last season was Allen's last or they'll give him one more?

Why in the world would be cut our best edge rusher when he's still under contract?

Because the Raiders are cutting Carr, who is still under contract. Seems like the trendy thing to do today.

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If the team wants to keep Allen it should be an incentive based contract. No serious guaranteed money.

How many of you guys would give him a 4 year $64 million deal or close to it? Just a guess at what he will ask for.

Can we just see him play in 2023 first? 
why prematurely decide his worth?

If the team is banking on him getting better year by year, they may be able to extend Allen for less than premium pass rusher market value if they do it early.

If Allen is banking on himself getting better, he may want to let next year play out.

Either way, it's a risk for both sides.

Personally, Allen seems to have some great leadership qualities, but I'd like to see more from him on the field.

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Can we just see him play in 2023 first? 
why prematurely decide his worth?

If the team is banking on him getting better year by year, they may be able to extend Allen for less than premium pass rusher market value if they do it early.

If Allen is banking on himself getting better, he may want to let next year play out.

Either way, it's a risk for both sides.

Personally, Allen seems to have some great leadership qualities, but I'd like to see more from him on the field.

I get it.

Gamble on prematurely paying him less than he may be worth if he has a big year. 

That's a big "if." 

No thanks. 

Does anyone really think he's going to have a 70 pressure, 15 sack season in 2023? 
I don't. Would be a nice "problem" to have if he does. 

I'll just wait to see if he's part of the plan moving forward or not. 
As things stand, he needs an interior pass rush specialist and excellent coverage to perform at a level that "might" make him hard to afford in a new contract. We don't have that. I'd like to see that happen, but there is no guarantee it will. 

If they are making a deal now, it has to be no more than 14 mil per year and I doubt that is in anyone's plans.

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He’s a really good player. He’s going to get better and better. His best football is still to come. He needs to be a jaguar.

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The organization might want to extend his contract and prevent him from even entering free agency. If so, how much is the offer?

I'd just let him show me what he's worth instead of extending him prematurely. 

If you were over a barrel and had to pay him on an extension now for some mysterious reason, which we do not have,  the numbers he's put up thus far say he's worth about 14 million per year. 

That's 5.7 million less per year than the current franchise tag at the position if anyone needs reference/comparison.

At this moment, $16 million/year would make him the 10/11th highest paid edge player. While there aren't many great Edge guys slated for FA this year in 2023, next year in 2024 has a whole slew of guys.

By the beginning of the 2024  season, $16 million/year will easily be equal to the ~20-24th highest paid edge player. On top of that, if you wait until next year 24 off season, all those guys hitting FA/new deals are going to pump up that franchise tag and and the market price for Allen even more.

True, Allen has not gotten enough sacks, but I think we all recognize that he is an above average starting Edge in the league. Given most of the improvements to the defense in the next 2 years will be via the draft and cost controlled, I think extending him is reasonable right now. 

Using the cap space on him rather than say some other FA DT/DE/CB/S in FA seems to be a bit safer, and you can always just make sure there is minimal dead cap after 2 years.

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