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College Prospects - 2023


(03-04-2023, 12:04 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(03-04-2023, 11:58 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: I'd bet you $5000 right now that there are at least 10 general managers in the NFL that would tell you that's horse [BLEEP]. 

Especially in a 3-4 when he sometimes has more ground to cover laterally.

It's OK to fall in love with a prospect that happens to have a sub-par measurable, that's OK. We're fans. 
But let's not try to reinvent the wheel making excuses for it. 

His arms are short and plenty of front offices aren't going to like that. Period. 

Luckily for him, it just takes one GM to believe in him and see him as a fit.
And you know which GM doesn’t like short arms? Baalke. Just look at his DT and DE draft record.

Yeah, I don't think Baalke will draft him.  He overdrafts to measurables.  There is always outliers as Boselli talked about the other day.  Of course you always want the guy to be the biggest, fastest, and have the best measurables but there are outliers and some guys have traits you have to overlook those things you would love for everyone to have.
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(This post was last modified: 03-04-2023, 02:29 PM by flgatorsandjags. Edited 2 times in total.)

(03-04-2023, 02:07 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: It's actually very simple to explain to you why arm length matters to DTs.

Think of a reach advantage in boxing. Longer arms are a big advantage, right?

Well, a guard or tackle vs a DT has a great advantage if his reach is longer in the same way.
If that OT or OG gets his longer arms inside and grabs some pad and jersey, a DT with shorter arms is now at a disadvantage trying to shed the block and make a tackle or move past the offensive lineman.

Simple.

Conversely - a DT with longer arms than a guard or tackle has an advantage shedding or rejecting a block.

Pat Kirwin explained it in his book like this:

Quote:In his book Take Your Eye Off the Ball, Pat Kirwan likens the clash between the offensive and defensive lines on each play to “a series of adjacent bar fights.” If you control the chest, you control the man; if you control the man, you control the gap.

Not if you have the quickness, technique, and hand strength like Kancey has.  How was he so affective in college?  Are the NFL lineman s arms that much longer than the guys he faced in college?  I'm not betting on the guy with the longest arms, that's one of the last things for me.  There a number of things that can makeup for arm length on a DT
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(03-04-2023, 02:16 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(03-04-2023, 02:07 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: It's actually very simple to explain to you why arm length matters to DTs.

Think of a reach advantage in boxing. Longer arms are a big advantage, right?

Well, a guard or tackle vs a DT has a great advantage if his reach is longer in the same way.
If that OT or OG gets his longer arms inside and grabs some pad and jersey, a DT with shorter arms is now at a disadvantage trying to shed the block and make a tackle or move past the offensive lineman.

Simple.

Conversely - a DT with longer arms than a guard or tackle has an advantage shedding or rejecting a block.

Pat Kirwin explained it in his book like this:

Not if you have the quickness technique, and hand strength like Kancey has.  How was he so affective in college?  Are the NFL lineman s arms that much longer than the guys he faced in college?  I'm not betting on the guy with the longest arms, that's one of the last things for me.  There a number of things that can makeup for arm length on a DT

Look-

The debate here is whether or not scouts/GMs/front office decisions factor arm length for DTs into the equation. 

They do.

100% they do. 

Period. Zero argument to be had. 

Now, if you want to make a case that this particular player's outlier ability despite less than ideal length will make him an exception for SOME front offices?  Sure, you could make that case. 

But don't try to tell me that a defensive tackles arm length won't move him up or down anyone's boards.
That's just insane. Because it absolutely will. GMs have types and measurements are a big part of that.
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(This post was last modified: 03-04-2023, 02:37 PM by flgatorsandjags.)

(03-04-2023, 02:29 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(03-04-2023, 02:16 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Not if you have the quickness technique, and hand strength like Kancey has.  How was he so affective in college?  Are the NFL lineman s arms that much longer than the guys he faced in college?  I'm not betting on the guy with the longest arms, that's one of the last things for me.  There a number of things that can makeup for arm length on a DT

Look-

The debate here is whether or not scouts/GMs/front office decisions factor arm length for DTs into the equation. 

They do.

100% they do. 

Period. Zero argument to be had. 

Now, if you want to make a case that this particular player's outlier ability despite less than ideal length will make him an exception for SOME front offices?  Sure, you could make that case. 

But don't try to tell me that a defensive tackles arm length won't move him up or down anyone's boards.
That's just insane. Because it absolutely will. GMs have types and measurements are a big part of that.

Ok, let me say this.  Every GM is different.  Even though i know you all think they draft the same.  There might be a few that take a guy off their board completely.  There is likely a few that will over react to every little thing.  I bet there are a lot more GMs that don't move a DT up and down the board on arm length than ones that do.

Arm length on a edge is much more important than DT.
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(03-04-2023, 02:35 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(03-04-2023, 02:29 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: Look-

The debate here is whether or not scouts/GMs/front office decisions factor arm length for DTs into the equation. 

They do.

100% they do. 

Period. Zero argument to be had. 

Now, if you want to make a case that this particular player's outlier ability despite less than ideal length will make him an exception for SOME front offices?  Sure, you could make that case. 

But don't try to tell me that a defensive tackles arm length won't move him up or down anyone's boards.
That's just insane. Because it absolutely will. GMs have types and measurements are a big part of that.

Ok, let me say this.  Every GM is different.  Even though i know you all think they draft the same.  There might be a few that take a guy off their board completely.  There is likely a few that will over react to every little thing.  I bet there are a lot more GMs that don't move a DT up and down the board on arm length than ones that do.

You said:

"Arm length doesn't matter for DTs"

Then you said:

"No one is going to move him up or down their boards because of his arm measurement." 

I think both of those things are very, very inaccurate. 

He's going to have a 3 inch reach disadvantage going against guys every week whose sole mission is to keep him at arm's length. Don't you think the longer arms have the upper hand in that endeavor?

You can keep calling it a "little thing" all you want. 
But - the reality is - even though many GMs may see this player as a "little thing" they don't consider this measurement in linemen a "little thing."
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(03-04-2023, 02:42 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(03-04-2023, 02:35 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Ok, let me say this.  Every GM is different.  Even though i know you all think they draft the same.  There might be a few that take a guy off their board completely.  There is likely a few that will over react to every little thing.  I bet there are a lot more GMs that don't move a DT up and down the board on arm length than ones that do.

You said:

"Arm length doesn't matter for DTs"

Then you said:

"No one is going to move him up or down their boards because of his arm measurement." 

I think both of those things are very, very inaccurate. 

He's going to have a 3 inch reach disadvantage going against guys every week whose sole mission is to keep him at arm's length. Don't you think the longer arms have the upper hand in that endeavor?

You can keep calling it a "little thing" all you want. 
But - the reality is - even though many GMs may see this player as a "little thing" they don't consider this measurement in linemen a "little thing."

John Randle wasn't even drafted.  My hope is every team passes on him in the first and he falls to our 2nd round pick and Doug talks Baalke into drafting him because the biggest guy isn't always the best guy.  Hell, he might be a bust but I think he's gonna be hell to block on the interior.  Torrence in the first and Kancey in the 2nd would be a dream first 2 picks for me.
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(03-04-2023, 02:35 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(03-04-2023, 02:29 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: Look-

The debate here is whether or not scouts/GMs/front office decisions factor arm length for DTs into the equation. 

They do.

100% they do. 

Period. Zero argument to be had. 

Now, if you want to make a case that this particular player's outlier ability despite less than ideal length will make him an exception for SOME front offices?  Sure, you could make that case. 

But don't try to tell me that a defensive tackles arm length won't move him up or down anyone's boards.
That's just insane. Because it absolutely will. GMs have types and measurements are a big part of that.

Ok, let me say this.  Every GM is different.  Even though i know you all think they draft the same.  There might be a few that take a guy off their board completely.  There is likely a few that will over react to every little thing.  I bet there are a lot more GMs that don't move a DT up and down the board on arm length than ones that do.

Arm length on a edge is much more important than DT.
I love when you get put in your place and then just make something up out of thin air.

“I know you all think they all draft the same”

Who in the world said this? I’ll help…. No one.

No one is also claiming that arm length is the end all be all but it is in fact important.
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(This post was last modified: 03-04-2023, 02:57 PM by flgatorsandjags.)

(03-04-2023, 02:52 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(03-04-2023, 02:35 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Ok, let me say this.  Every GM is different.  Even though i know you all think they draft the same.  There might be a few that take a guy off their board completely.  There is likely a few that will over react to every little thing.  I bet there are a lot more GMs that don't move a DT up and down the board on arm length than ones that do.

Arm length on a edge is much more important than DT.
I love when you get put in your place and then just make something up out of thin air.

“I know you all think they all draft the same”

Who in the world said this? I’ll help…. No one.

No one is also claiming that arm length is the end all be all but it is in fact important.

Nobody here has put me in my place lol.  You must be new here.  " Every GM conisders need in every pick"  No they don't lol.  Some just take the top guy on their board regardless of need.  It might be important for some, but I bet most GMs keep their DTs right where they had them on there board before and after their arms are measured
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(03-04-2023, 02:57 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(03-04-2023, 02:52 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: I love when you get put in your place and then just make something up out of thin air.

“I know you all think they all draft the same”

Who in the world said this? I’ll help…. No one.

No one is also claiming that arm length is the end all be all but it is in fact important.

Nobody here has put me in my place lol.  You must be new here.  " Every GM conisders need in every pick"  No they don't lol.  Some just take the top guy on their board regardless of need.  It might be important for some, but I bet most GMs keep their DTs right where they had them on there board before and after their arms are measured
I sometimes don’t even know why I bother. You’re so dense.

Every GM, does in fact, factor need into their pick. Some factor it in more than others but every GM does factor in need. They have to or they end up having 8 running backs or 7 tight ends.
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(03-04-2023, 02:52 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(03-04-2023, 02:35 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Ok, let me say this.  Every GM is different.  Even though i know you all think they draft the same.  There might be a few that take a guy off their board completely.  There is likely a few that will over react to every little thing.  I bet there are a lot more GMs that don't move a DT up and down the board on arm length than ones that do.

Arm length on a edge is much more important than DT.
I love when you get put in your place and then just make something up out of thin air.

“I know you all think they all draft the same”

Who in the world said this? I’ll help…. No one.

No one is also claiming that arm length is the end all be all but it is in fact important.

I think he's pointing a gross generalization my way because I've explained to him several times that "all" GMs consider need with many of their draft selections. Of course my statement doesn't mean that all GMs draft the same way on that topic or regarding prototypes / measurements. 

Of course that has very little to do with the topic at hand. 

But whatever. It's not worth debating at this point.
 A lineman with arms below 31" has an uphill battle in the NFL.
I wish the kid luck. Would be really cool to see him be the exception to the rule, but I think the lack of overall length (including arm length) is a problem.
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(03-04-2023, 03:03 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(03-04-2023, 02:52 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: I love when you get put in your place and then just make something up out of thin air.

“I know you all think they all draft the same”

Who in the world said this? I’ll help…. No one.

No one is also claiming that arm length is the end all be all but it is in fact important.

I think he's pointing a gross generalization my way because I've explained to him several times that "all" GMs consider need with many of their draft selections. Of course my statement doesn't mean that all GMs draft the same way on that topic or regarding prototypes / measurements. 

And - Of course - that has very little to do with the topic at hand. 

But whatever. It's not worth debating at this point.
 A lineman with arms below 31" has an uphill battle in the NFL.
I wish the kid luck. Would be really cool to see him be the exception to the rule, but I think the lack of overall length (including arm length) is a problem.
There have only been 4 DTs in the combine era with arms that short and none of them have been successful.
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Clark Phillips is another player who will be downgraded by many due to being only 5'9" with short arms. His 40 time was certainly acceptable at 4.51 but not off the charts like Emmanuel Forbes, Deonte Banks and others. Right now, he'd be my top target in round 2 if he does slide that far. He can be an exceptional nickel for the Jaguars due to his outstanding instincts, cover skills and work ethic. If the Jaguars go for offensive line or pass rush in round 1, my fingers would be crossed that enough general managers overlook Phillips so he could become a Jaguar.
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(This post was last modified: 03-04-2023, 03:43 PM by flgatorsandjags.)

(03-04-2023, 03:24 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: Clark Phillips is another player who will be downgraded by many due to being only 5'9" with short arms. His 40 time was certainly acceptable at 4.51 but not off the charts like Emmanuel Forbes, Deonte Banks and others. Right now, he'd be my top target in round 2 if he does slide that far. He can be an exceptional nickel for the Jaguars due to his outstanding instincts, cover skills and work ethic. If the Jaguars go for offensive line or pass rush in round 1, my fingers would be crossed that enough general managers overlook Phillips so he could become a Jaguar.

Yeah, I think Phillips is the 2nd best nickel behind Witherspoon.  I think it's possible Witherspoon could fall to our pick.  Both can also play on the outside too

https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2023/3/...ers-losers

https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-scouti...n-gonzalez-
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(This post was last modified: 03-04-2023, 03:48 PM by flgatorsandjags. Edited 3 times in total.)

https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-scouti...n-gonzalez-

Odd they have Kancey a combine winner and his arm length wasn't even mentioned
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Forbes at 166 lbs is scary. Said he struggled in drills too
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Nuts to it ... 

I don't know much on arm dimensions but I say we draft him anyways just so we can yell ...  "Gan on T-Rex" ... Whenever he lines up over centre!
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Tyree Wilson, Isiah Foskey, Zach Harrison, Tavius Robinson, Mazi Smith, Jerrod Clark and PJ Mustipher from the DL group.

Joey Porter Jr., Christian Gonzalez, Kelee Ringo, Darius Rush, Antonio Johnson, JL Skinner and Daniel Scott from the DB group.

Just based on everything we know about Baalke defensively and historically. Those look like his ideal targets.


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(03-04-2023, 07:12 PM)Caldrac Wrote: Tyree Wilson, Isiah Foskey, Zach Harrison, Tavius Robinson, Mazi Smith, Jerrod Clark and PJ Mustipher from the DL group.

Joey Porter Jr., Christian Gonzalez, Kelee Ringo, Darius Rush, Antonio Johnson, JL Skinner and Daniel Scott from the DB group.

Just based on everything we know about Baalke defensively and historically. Those look like his ideal targets.


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I'd say Foskey is definitely near the top of Baalke's list after the Combine. Right now, my odds would be on them taking one of these in Round 1:

Isaiah Foskey

Antonio Johnson

O'Cyrus Torrence
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Will Mallory and Zack Kuntz top fastest 40's from the TE group. Good value picks. Was high on them.

LaPorta though. He looks the part. He had a crazy amount of broken tackles as well at Iowa to go along with that 4.5 speed.

This is a good class overall and it has depth. You don't have to draft one in RD1 or RD2 to go along with Engram and Farrell.

Kuntz tested well. He's not a lumbering giraffe at 6'7/6'8. He can scoot and he has hands. Would be a sneaky good pick in RD4 maybe if he lasts that long.

I would like to see him develop slowly over two years in his frame. LaPorta is a steal in RD3.

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