Bad analogy. (sorry couldn't resist)

Gambling is a zero sum game.  There's a winner and a loser.  We didn't lose anything by picking up extra picks as those late round prospects' stories have yet to be written.  We might not have gained what was intended, but we still gained something.

sure, we gained something, but if I went to the store for milk and eggs and came home with a jar of mayo and pickled herring, I'm not going to consider my venture a success.

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Bad analogy. (sorry couldn't resist)

Gambling is a zero sum game.  There's a winner and a loser.  We didn't lose anything by picking up extra picks as those late round prospects' stories have yet to be written.  We might not have gained what was intended, but we still gained something.

sure, we gained something, but if I went to the store for milk and eggs and came home with a jar of mayo and pickled herring, I'm not going to consider my venture a success.

Ok, but again, your food examples don't line up here.  We got more players to evaluate than we otherwise would have (more opportunities to potentially increase the talent level of the roster).  If one of those extra players supplants someone already presumed to be on the roster then it was even more of a success.  If they don't, then it was still a success of trading back and picking up the extra picks to give your coaches more opportunity to evaluate draftable players to see if you can improve your roster anywhere.

If you're relating it to food and grocery shopping, it's more along the lines of going to the store with a list of ingredients and a budget that you cannot exceed to create a specific dish then finding that one of your ingredients, let's say something off the spice rack, is BOGO so you opt to pick out a different spice as your Get One to see if it may enhance the flavor of your dish.  You may find after sampling that it does or does not enhance the flavor so you either include it in the mix or don't.  At the very least, you obtained the the opportunity to evaluate the additional spice in your dish whether or not it panned out for the final product.  Not a perfect analogy by any means, but much more relevant to what happened. 

We did risk not getting our guy, but we did get him if you give credence to Beane's commentary.  Baalke wasn't as forthcoming there as he described it as him having 3 guys he was targeting in the 1st round and didn't want to trade too far back to miss out on all 3, but to hear Beane talk it sounded like AH was the top choice and Baalke really preferred not to miss out on him.

Anyway, I'm out on this discussion as when I start writing paragraphs instead of sentences I've realized I've spent too much time and I don't care enough to attempt to sway anyone further.  Just saw a lot of bad analogies flying around and figured I'd chime in with my own bad analogy.  Cheers and go Jags!

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Basic probability, folks.

We have a better chance of landing a keeper in rounds three and four than we do in rounds six and seven.

Baalke knows this.
Baalke tried to trade up to those higher rounds because of this.
Baalke was unable to pull it off.

Doesn't mean he's a bad GM, doesn't mean we screwed up this draft, doesn't mean he didn't put in the best effort he had.
We are not doomed.

It just means we ended up stuck with a bunch of prospects who have a very low probability of making an impact for our football team.

Ideally we'd have at least one more guy that had a significantly higher probability to clearly improve our roster. That didn't happen.

Maybe we get lucky as hell and one of these 5th, 6th or 7th round guys pans out to be a difference maker. Fingers crossed.

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Basic probability, folks.

We have a better chance of landing a keeper in rounds three and four than we do in rounds six and seven.

Baalke knows this.
Baalke tried to trade up to those higher rounds because of this.
Baalke was unable to pull it off.

Doesn't mean he's a bad GM, doesn't mean we screwed up this draft, doesn't mean he didn't put in the best effort he had.
We are not doomed.

It just means we ended up stuck with a bunch of prospects who have a very low probability of making an impact for our football team.

Ideally we'd  have at least one more guy that had a significantly higher probability to clearly improve our roster. That didn't happen.

Maybe we get lucky as hell and one of these 5th, 6th or 7th round guys pans out to be a difference maker. Fingers crossed.

hear, hear.

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Basic probability, folks.

We have a better chance of landing a keeper in rounds three and four than we do in rounds six and seven.

Baalke knows this.
Baalke tried to trade up to those higher rounds because of this.
Baalke was unable to pull it off.

Doesn't mean he's a bad GM, doesn't mean we screwed up this draft, doesn't mean he didn't put in the best effort he had.
We are not doomed.

It just means we ended up stuck with a bunch of prospects who have a very low probability of making an impact for our football team.

Ideally we'd  have at least one more guy that had a significantly higher probability to clearly improve our roster. That didn't happen.

Maybe we get lucky as hell and one of these 5th, 6th or 7th round guys pans out to be a difference maker. Fingers crossed.

Amen

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I think we did a pretty good job of adding to areas we needed some depth and kept the core of the team in FA. Pretty happy with how this offseason has gone, especially when it looked like 2-3 key starters could go.

Draft is always a lottery. I've lost count of how many 'can't miss' guys have gone on to be busts. The draft 'experts' overhype players every year to make them seem like they have these great insights but year after year there are tons of guys they rate so high who do nothing then players they never talk about have an impact.

That's what we are looking for. Players to make an impact. I want a pass rusher that gets to a QB. I don't care really what his tangibles are or where he went to college. I just want them to make a damn play. 

Plus we have a HC and staff that can improve players and I'll be interested to see what they can do with some of these later round picks.

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It is true that success rate does drop per round. With that said, there are many cases of star even Hall of fame players drafted in those later rounds. Some greats have even went undrafted. It really is a crap shoot. Look how many "can't miss" top 10 draft prospects the Jags have flopped on over the years. Sometimes you can find great value or just get lucky in the later rounds.

Players like Tom Brady, (6th round), James Harrison, (undrafted) our own Telvin Smith (5th) and many others prove their are unseen diamonds in those later rounds. I will guarantee that most of these so called *stars in the making* people wanted the Jaguars to take will bust. Most of the first round will bust. Yes drafting earlier gives you a better lottery ticket but look how bad the Jaguars have drafted with golden tickets the last decade. I for one am going to wait to judge the draft picks.

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It is true that success rate does drop per round.  With that said, there are many cases of star even Hall of fame players drafted in those later rounds.  Some greats have even went undrafted.  It really is a crap shoot.  Look how many "can't miss" top 10 draft prospects the Jags have flopped on over the years.  Sometimes you can find great value or just get lucky in the later rounds.

Players like Tom Brady, (6th round), James Harrison, (undrafted) our own Telvin Smith (5th) and many others prove their are unseen diamonds in those later rounds.  I will guarantee that most of these so called *stars in the making* people wanted the Jaguars to take will bust.  Most of the first round will bust.  Yes drafting earlier gives you a better lottery ticket but look how bad the Jaguars have drafted with golden tickets the last decade. I for one am going to wait to judge the draft picks.

This is a good perspective.

The only issue with this year's draft haul (when viewed through this lens) is that we have 8 new guys from rounds 5 through 7.  

As you said, sometimes you find gold in those late round hills. But how quickly do you know what you've got? 
We can't keep these kids around and develop them all. There's just not room on this roster. Most of those guys will be gone on August 29th and if they didn't make their potential evident in those few short months, we'll miss out on any chance to benefit. 

This is just one more reason why getting fewer player from higher rounds beats out a higher # of players from the later rounds IMO.

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Well, time will tell. If this approach doesn’t work, we will be picking Balkie apart next draft.

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Well time will tel. If this approach doesn’t work, we will be picking Balkie apart next draft.

Sounds SMRT.

Then again, knowing this board, you may be on to something.

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A lot of the late round selections they made have a high probability of making the team as 3rd string and ST's players. The nickel competition should be fun this summer. Abdullah and Lacy clearly were attempts at backfilling Key and Smoot snap count wise.

Parish is essentially going to fill a role we didn't have on the roster last year. Hodges and Vohasek probably have the most stacked against them but Hodges stands out a bit when I look at our depth along the offensive line. The only way Vohasek makes the final roster is if he's absolutely hammering everybody in front of him and knifing into the backfield more often than not.

Normally once the starters are done [BLEEP] around during preseason contests I go to bed or call it a night and do something else. This year I feel actually compelled to watch the full game just to see this class out there.

My biggest hope, is that, we find our nickel CB solution, a Safety with range and special team's standout ability, a certified FB and a healthy rotational tandem off the edge in terms of setting it and getting after it. That's all I care about. Do I hope Bigsby makes splash plays? Yes. Do I hope we some unique play designs with Strange? Yes. Do I hope Harrison mauls a dude into the sidelines on a run play or stonewalls a dude in a passing play? Yes.

However. I would rather see the top guys rotated on a limited basis and kept healthy. We don't need another Devin Lloyd situation to drum up this summer and linger well into the first month of the season. That [BLEEP] was annoying. Just stay healthy with those guys. Everybody drafted in RD5 - RD7 should be playing like their hair is on fire out there though.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Yasir and Parker Washington were my favorite picks in this draft. I think they’ll both contribute at times this season.

In regards to the draft, who knows man. Jags offense is gonna be FLYING this year and if the young kids on D step up, they should be alright.

Be ready for some high scoring games!

I'm excited for Washngton.  I'm trying to temper that excitement given that he's a 6th round pick, but I get the sense there's room for him to contribute here, and he has the talent to do so.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Yasir and Parker Washington were my favorite picks in this draft. I think they’ll both contribute at times this season.

In regards to the draft, who knows man. Jags offense is gonna be FLYING this year and if the young kids on D step up, they should be alright.

Be ready for some high scoring games!

I'm excited for Washngton.  I'm trying to temper that excitement given that he's a 6th round pick, but I get the sense there's room for him to contribute here, and he has the talent to do so.

I really think he's a slightly thicker and tougher version of FSU's Rashad Greene who was also a day three pick for us back in 2015. He lasted three years here. Injuries didn't help him but he did offer some special team's value. Not nearly as productive as Greene coming out of college as a receiver but they had vastly different QB's and one of them ended up on a NCAA Championship team. 

Washington will more than likely fill in that role for us for the next three years though. He's cheap labor and an inexpensive 5th - 6th receiver you keep active on gamedays in the event your return man is winded or injured. Ridley - Kirk - Jones - Agnew - ??? - ???

That's really where we are at for the moment. We have a solid trio and then a slew of unproven commodities that could fill the 5th and 6th spots. I know everybody likes Tim Jones. Not sure why. He's had a whooping 3 career NFL receptions for 30 yards in games that matter. 

Ideally? I would like to see Washington stand out and be another Kirk type receiver that can work in if needed here and there with PR/KR assistance with Agnew. I am hoping one of these taller targets can separate themselves and cement that 6th spot though. Kevin Austin Jr. from last year is still around here. Elijah Cooks at 6'4, 215 caught Shipley's eye today. Maybe Seth Williams as well at 6'3.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I'm excited for Washngton.  I'm trying to temper that excitement given that he's a 6th round pick, but I get the sense there's room for him to contribute here, and he has the talent to do so.

I really think he's a slightly thicker and tougher version of FSU's Rashad Greene who was also a day three pick for us back in 2015. He lasted three years here. Injuries didn't help him but he did offer some special team's value. Not nearly as productive as Greene coming out of college as a receiver but they had vastly different QB's and one of them ended up on a NCAA Championship team. 

Washington will more than likely fill in that role for us for the next three years though. He's cheap labor and an inexpensive 5th - 6th receiver you keep active on gamedays in the event your return man is winded or injured. Ridley - Kirk - Jones - Agnew - ??? - ???

That's really where we are at for the moment. We have a solid trio and then a slew of unproven commodities that could fill the 5th and 6th spots. I know everybody likes Tim Jones. Not sure why. He's had a whooping 3 career NFL receptions for 30 yards in games that matter. 

Ideally? I would like to see Washington stand out and be another Kirk type receiver that can work in if needed here and there with PR/KR assistance with Agnew. I am hoping one of these taller targets can separate themselves and cement that 6th spot though. Kevin Austin Jr. from last year is still around here. Elijah Cooks at 6'4, 215 caught Shipley's eye today. Maybe Seth Williams as well at 6'3.

Based upon what I've seen of him, Washington reminds me of former Washington WR Gary Clark from a size/build/and play style standpoint.  If only we could get him to produce at Clark's level...

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

For those who have mentioned in this thread and others how we have players that seem suited to run a 4-3:

They ran a 3-4 in rookie camp drills today, FWIW.

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For those who have mentioned in this thread and others how we have players that seem suited to run a 4-3:

They ran a 3-4 in rookie camp drills today, FWIW.

People tend to get too caught up in 3-4 or 4-3. Reality is they'll play both of those fronts during games, but most of the time they'll be a 4-2-5.

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Here's an interesting story. The Giants GM confirms that before trading with the Jaguars in round 1, Baalke made them promise they would select a defensive player. Same thing with the Bills. This backs up the claim that Baalke traded down and still got the player he wanted.

https://sports.yahoo.com/giants-gm-promi...11355.html

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Here's an interesting story.  The Giants GM confirms that before trading with the Jaguars in round 1, Baalke made them promise they would select a defensive player.  Same thing with the Bills.  This backs up the claim that Baalke traded down and still got the player he wanted. 

https://sports.yahoo.com/giants-gm-promi...11355.html

If I want a guy bad enough, I'll lie to your face to get what I want.

Sure I might have to repay the favor down the road to win back some trust, but I wouldn't rely on anything anyone says on darft night.

I also heard we were considering a trade for Jonah Williams. Could you imagine THAT stinkeroo of a deal?

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Here's an interesting story.  The Giants GM confirms that before trading with the Jaguars in round 1, Baalke made them promise they would select a defensive player.  Same thing with the Bills.  This backs up the claim that Baalke traded down and still got the player he wanted. 

https://sports.yahoo.com/giants-gm-promi...11355.html

If I want a guy bad enough, I'll lie to your face to get what I want.

Sure I might have to repay the favor down the road to win back some trust, but I wouldn't rely on anything anyone says on darft night.

I also heard we were considering a trade for Jonah Williams. Could you imagine THAT stinkeroo of a deal?

The Giants and the Bills both kept their promises, and we did not trade for Jonah Williams.

So why be negative about things that did not happen?

And besides, if the Giants or the Bills had betrayed us, the whole league would've known about it, and who would trust them then?  So they weren't going to do that.

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Here's an interesting story.  The Giants GM confirms that before trading with the Jaguars in round 1, Baalke made them promise they would select a defensive player.  Same thing with the Bills.  This backs up the claim that Baalke traded down and still got the player he wanted. 

https://sports.yahoo.com/giants-gm-promi...11355.html

If I want a guy bad enough, I'll lie to your face to get what I want.

Sure I might have to repay the favor down the road to win back some trust, but I wouldn't rely on anything anyone says on darft night.

I also heard we were considering a trade for Jonah Williams. Could you imagine THAT stinkeroo of a deal?

That’s you. Do real GMs play so fast and loose with trust? Seems like a bad way to do business.

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