Wow.

You really aren't reading half of the stuff I'm typing. You're kinda saying some of the same things that I am. 

To your final two sentences - talent trumping positional value at the RB position is more rare in the modern NFL than it used to be and for good reason. 

2023 - 2  - 1st round RB
2022 -  ZERO - 1st round RB
2021 - 2 - 1st round RB
2020 - 1 - 1st round RB
2019 - 1 - 1st round RB

That's 6 RBs in the 1st round in 5 years. 

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2008 - 5 - 1st round RB
2007 - 1 - 1st round RB
2006 - 4 - 1st round RB
2005 - 3 - 1st round RB
2004 - 3 - 1st round RB

That's SIXTEEN RBs selected in the first round over 5 years. 

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GMs are wise to no longer risk so many early picks on running backs. And this ^  should make the trend very obvious for you.  It has to be a special talent to lead you to exception and about half of those exceptions fail.

This tectonic shift in drafting strategy did not happen by accident. The game has changed, the rules have changed, the RB position is devalued. The GMs have adjusted. 

You just aren't hip to it yet.

If we follow your rule, never draft a RB in the first round (unless he's a "special talent," which is vague enough to get you off the hook), who would you have drafted instead of Travis Etienne?

I'm on the record taking either a wide receiver or a defensive lineman. Since we took ETN we instead spent millions of dollars on free agents the next year, a much riskier proposition that, again, turned out well for us this time around but is not the proper long term strategy.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

I think typically speaking a RB in the first round is stupid, but when you get a guy as talented as ETN, or CMC for example, those guys are 100% worth it.

CMC is exactly my point, he didn't help his bad team that drafted him except to get them draft capital from a good team who could afford the luxury of acquiring him. We're lucky in our roster development despite the low value pick that we hit on our free agents instead and that the guy the drafting crew actually wanted for the role got picked ahead of our slot. I'm glad ETN is playing so well, but it's in spite of everything about how he got here, that's why the whole backslappimg some are doing in this thread is silly.

‘Lucky’ or that’s exactly what they were going for?  It was a great pick FOR THE TEAM and to stick to your guns about it being a bad pick is getting a tad tiresome.  Lucky or good…it was absolutely the correct pick.

You give CJB [BLEEP] about him dying on his hill about his Lawrence takes (as did I).  Aren’t you doing EXACTLY the same thing?

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I am firmly build the trenches guy, but will yield to what our "brain trusts" thinks despite what I think. The fact is somehow, some way they got this right and the top tier RB's in the league at present all came from round 1 and 2.

As we discuss this we do have to look at the "team" that was drafting. Shad, his son Tony, Baalkie and Urban Meyer. Now at this time of his tenure our owner was all enamored with Urban. Urban blew into town in a somewhat dictatorial mode andas we all later found out Urban's ego was larger than the State of Florida. I have to think this was somewhat of an Urban preference as ETN was a teammate of TL in college. Also, Urban's football past was pre NIL college football and ETN fits the profile Urban was comfortable with. Remember he did remark he was surprised he couldn't recruit players (free agents) like college. Even if Baalkie was wanting another player he would have been outflanked politically on this.

I know most is my opinion of what occurred but probably not too far off. The next draft with Doug as a partner is somewhat more in line with what we all think. That is a topic for another string...lol

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A new broom always sweeps clean.

Wow.

You really aren't reading half of the stuff I'm typing. You're kinda saying some of the same things that I am. 

To your final two sentences - talent trumping positional value at the RB position is more rare in the modern NFL than it used to be and for good reason. 

2023 - 2  - 1st round RB
2022 -  ZERO - 1st round RB
2021 - 2 - 1st round RB
2020 - 1 - 1st round RB
2019 - 1 - 1st round RB

That's 6 RBs in the 1st round in 5 years. 

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2008 - 5 - 1st round RB
2007 - 1 - 1st round RB
2006 - 4 - 1st round RB
2005 - 3 - 1st round RB
2004 - 3 - 1st round RB

That's SIXTEEN RBs selected in the first round over 5 years. 

---

GMs are wise to no longer risk so many early picks on running backs. And this ^  should make the trend very obvious for you.  It has to be a special talent to lead you to exception and about half of those exceptions fail.

This tectonic shift in drafting strategy did not happen by accident. The game has changed, the rules have changed, the RB position is devalued. The GMs have adjusted. 

You just aren't hip to it yet.

If we follow your rule, never draft a RB in the first round (unless he's a "special talent," which is vague enough to get you off the hook), who would you have drafted instead of Travis Etienne?

This has been hashed out IN THIS THREAD, Marty

The guys on my radar were Barmore and Teven Jenkins. Yes, yes, I know they ended up going several picks later - but they were projected in that late first round range and fit the team's needs and positional value better than a RB did. 

Either would have been a welcome addition - but ETN turned out to be worth the gamble and a better pick than both of those guys. 

I'm glad we won the coin flip on the back.  He's a fantastic player and appears to be a great fit/piece of the puzzle in the culture build Baalke and Pederson have pulled off. 

For the life of me, I don't understand why it rubs people so badly that teams just  don't gamble on first round backs very often anymore and I agree with that practice.

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CMC is exactly my point, he didn't help his bad team that drafted him except to get them draft capital from a good team who could afford the luxury of acquiring him. We're lucky in our roster development despite the low value pick that we hit on our free agents instead and that the guy the drafting crew actually wanted for the role got picked ahead of our slot. I'm glad ETN is playing so well, but it's in spite of everything about how he got here, that's why the whole backslappimg some are doing in this thread is silly.

‘Lucky’ or that’s exactly what they were going for?  It was a great pick FOR THE TEAM and to stick to your guns about it being a bad pick is getting a tad tiresome.  Lucky or good…it was absolutely the correct pick.

You give CJB [BLEEP] about him dying on his hill about his Lawrence takes (as did I).  Aren’t you doing EXACTLY the same thing?

ETN is working out so far somewhat, and it's wonderful that it's worked out, but just because I hit the fairway once with my eyes closed doesn't mean I should close them on the next tee box. He's still lost a season to injury already and I'm very concerned that he's going to burn out this year if the pace doesn't slow for him. We know the 400 carry rule is almost ironclad, I don't want to see him lose career time as a result. The list of things I gave earlier that had to happen to make this pick work out should show you just how unusual it is that we've had this success with ETN. The list of stats that NYC and I have proposed show why, overall, teams do not value running backs anymore. And CJB's takes about TLaw were wrong while mine are right, that's the difference. I'm glad it's worked out, it's past time the Jags had some luck in the draft instead of the crap we've dealt with for years. We were due to have something go our way for once and we got both our QB and an unexpected star in the same draft. That's good news for the next couple season while they are here together.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

‘Lucky’ or that’s exactly what they were going for?  It was a great pick FOR THE TEAM and to stick to your guns about it being a bad pick is getting a tad tiresome.  Lucky or good…it was absolutely the correct pick.

You give CJB [BLEEP] about him dying on his hill about his Lawrence takes (as did I).  Aren’t you doing EXACTLY the same thing?

ETN is working out so far somewhat, and it's wonderful that it's worked out, but just because I hit the fairway once with my eyes closed doesn't mean I should close them on the next tee box. He's still lost a season to injury already and I'm very concerned that he's going to burn out this year if the pace doesn't slow for him. We know the 400 carry rule is almost ironclad, I don't want to see him lose career time as a result. The list of things I gave earlier that had to happen to make this pick work out should show you just how unusual it is that we've had this success with ETN. The list of stats that NYC and I have proposed show why, overall, teams do not value running backs anymore. And CJB's takes about TLaw were wrong while mine are right, that's the difference. I'm glad it's worked out, it's past time the Jags had some luck in the draft instead of the crap we've dealt with for years. We were due to have something go our way for once and we got both our QB and an unexpected star in the same draft. That's good news for the next couple season while they are here together.

Wow.

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If we follow your rule, never draft a RB in the first round (unless he's a "special talent," which is vague enough to get you off the hook), who would you have drafted instead of Travis Etienne?

I'm on the record taking either a wide receiver or a defensive lineman. Since we took ETN we instead spent millions of dollars on free agents the next year, a much riskier proposition that, again, turned out well for us this time around but is not the proper long term strategy.

Which one?  You don't get to turn a card into the commissioner that says "wide receiver."  You have to name an actual player.

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If we follow your rule, never draft a RB in the first round (unless he's a "special talent," which is vague enough to get you off the hook), who would you have drafted instead of Travis Etienne?

This has been hashed out IN THIS THREAD, Marty

The guys on my radar were Barmore and Teven Jenkins. Yes, yes, I know they ended up going several picks later - but they were projected in that late first round range and fit the team's needs and positional value better than a RB did. 

Either would have been a welcome addition - but ETN turned out to be worth the gamble and a better pick than both of those guys. 

I'm glad we won the coin flip on the back.  He's a fantastic player and appears to be a great fit/piece of the puzzle in the culture build Baalke and Pederson have pulled off. 

For the life of me, I don't understand why it rubs people so badly that teams just  don't gamble on first round backs very often anymore and I agree with that practice.

Are we also glossing over the fact that at the time, JRob was healthy? If he never got hurt, that's a 1st round pick on a RB who splits carries.

---

If we follow your rule, never draft a RB in the first round (unless he's a "special talent," which is vague enough to get you off the hook), who would you have drafted instead of Travis Etienne?

This has been hashed out IN THIS THREAD, Marty

The guys on my radar were Barmore and Teven Jenkins. Yes, yes, I know they ended up going several picks later - but they were projected in that late first round range and fit the team's needs and positional value better than a RB did. 

Either would have been a welcome addition - but ETN turned out to be worth the gamble and a better pick than both of those guys. 

I'm glad we won the coin flip on the back.  He's a fantastic player and appears to be a great fit/piece of the puzzle in the culture build Baalke and Pederson have pulled off. 

For the life of me, I don't understand why it rubs people so badly that teams just  don't gamble on first round backs very often anymore and I agree with that practice.

To me it's more about how they deny it's happened TBH.

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I'm on the record taking either a wide receiver or a defensive lineman. Since we took ETN we instead spent millions of dollars on free agents the next year, a much riskier proposition that, again, turned out well for us this time around but is not the proper long term strategy.

Which one?  You don't get to turn a card into the commissioner that says "wide receiver."  You have to name an actual player.

I don't remember, I know it was Christian Barmore on the line...Rondale Moore was the receiver? Ask JagsnGaters dude, he tries to rub my nose in it every chance he gets.

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This has been hashed out IN THIS THREAD, Marty

The guys on my radar were Barmore and Teven Jenkins. Yes, yes, I know they ended up going several picks later - but they were projected in that late first round range and fit the team's needs and positional value better than a RB did. 

Either would have been a welcome addition - but ETN turned out to be worth the gamble and a better pick than both of those guys. 

I'm glad we won the coin flip on the back.  He's a fantastic player and appears to be a great fit/piece of the puzzle in the culture build Baalke and Pederson have pulled off. 

For the life of me, I don't understand why it rubs people so badly that teams just  don't gamble on first round backs very often anymore and I agree with that practice.

Are also glossing over the fact that at the time, JRob was healthy? If he never got hurt, that's a 1st round pick on a RB who splits carries.

Dude, he wasn't splitting carries, he was on the bench behind Carlos [BLEEP] Hyde and used less than we use Swagnew on offense right now.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

At the end of the day, the great GMs take into account all factors and don't stay rigid on one specific strategy.

Baalke isn't new to how drafting works.  You can assume that he and the rest of the scouting team had graded ETN and other players and that they all understand that certain positions have higher value.  However, it's obvious that for whatever reason, they valued/graded ETN as the better pick compared to other lesser graded/valued players in "higher valued positions".

The ETN pick was a great pick.  And, it wasn't a "lucky" pick.  It was a calculated risk.  Heck, 99% of all draft picks are going to be "risky" or "coin flips".  Besides players like Lawrence and Andrew Luck, there's always at least a 50/50 chance a player is going to bust out or not meet the expectations of his draft spot.

I think it's obvious that drafting ETN was the correct call.  To try and argue against that, based on how great he's been playing is like fighting the ocean.  You're just wasting your energy, and the waves will never stop pounding you with the fact that you're taking up a fruitless endeavor.

---

At the end of the day, the great GMs take into account all factors and don't stay rigid on one specific strategy.

Baalke isn't new to how drafting works.  You can assume that he and the rest of the scouting team had graded ETN and other players and that they all understand that certain positions have higher value.  However, it's obvious that for whatever reason, they valued/graded ETN as the better pick compared to other lesser graded/valued players in "higher valued positions".

The ETN pick was a great pick.  And, it wasn't a "lucky" pick.  It was a calculated risk.  Heck, 99% of all draft picks are going to be "risky" or "coin flips".  Besides players like Lawrence and Andrew Luck, there's always at least a 50/50 chance a player is going to bust out or not meet the expectations of his draft spot.

I think it's obvious that drafting ETN was the correct call.  To try and argue against that, based on how great he's been playing is like fighting the ocean.  You're just wasting your energy, and the waves will never stop pounding you with the fact that you're taking up a fruitless endeavor.

This may be a fairly accurate take on how it went down.

However...

The common opinion at the time was that Urban Meyer saw a speedy back as an absolute must for his "scheme" and mandated the pick.

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At the end of the day, the great GMs take into account all factors and don't stay rigid on one specific strategy.

Baalke isn't new to how drafting works.  You can assume that he and the rest of the scouting team had graded ETN and other players and that they all understand that certain positions have higher value.  However, it's obvious that for whatever reason, they valued/graded ETN as the better pick compared to other lesser graded/valued players in "higher valued positions".

The ETN pick was a great pick.  And, it wasn't a "lucky" pick.  It was a calculated risk.  Heck, 99% of all draft picks are going to be "risky" or "coin flips".  Besides players like Lawrence and Andrew Luck, there's always at least a 50/50 chance a player is going to bust out or not meet the expectations of his draft spot.

I think it's obvious that drafting ETN was the correct call.  To try and argue against that, based on how great he's been playing is like fighting the ocean.  You're just wasting your energy, and the waves will never stop pounding you with the fact that you're taking up a fruitless endeavor.

That's hindsight revisionism. On Draft Day he wasn't even the guy Urbz wanted there, he was the fallback position and Meyer REALLY wanted Kadarious Toney.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootbal...-round-one

We lucked out on that pick because Urban Meyer is trash.

---

“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

At the end of the day, the great GMs take into account all factors and don't stay rigid on one specific strategy.

Baalke isn't new to how drafting works.  You can assume that he and the rest of the scouting team had graded ETN and other players and that they all understand that certain positions have higher value.  However, it's obvious that for whatever reason, they valued/graded ETN as the better pick compared to other lesser graded/valued players in "higher valued positions".

The ETN pick was a great pick.  And, it wasn't a "lucky" pick.  It was a calculated risk.  Heck, 99% of all draft picks are going to be "risky" or "coin flips".  Besides players like Lawrence and Andrew Luck, there's always at least a 50/50 chance a player is going to bust out or not meet the expectations of his draft spot.

I think it's obvious that drafting ETN was the correct call.  To try and argue against that, based on how great he's been playing is like fighting the ocean.  You're just wasting your energy, and the waves will never stop pounding you with the fact that you're taking up a fruitless endeavor.

That's hindsight revisionism. On Draft Day he wasn't even the guy Urbz wanted there, he was the fallback position and Meyer REALLY wanted Kadarious Toney.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootbal...-round-one

We lucked out on that pick because Urban Meyer is trash.

LOL

I forgot about the Toney part. Dear lort

---

At the end of the day, the great GMs take into account all factors and don't stay rigid on one specific strategy.

Baalke isn't new to how drafting works.  You can assume that he and the rest of the scouting team had graded ETN and other players and that they all understand that certain positions have higher value.  However, it's obvious that for whatever reason, they valued/graded ETN as the better pick compared to other lesser graded/valued players in "higher valued positions".

The ETN pick was a great pick.  And, it wasn't a "lucky" pick.  It was a calculated risk.  Heck, 99% of all draft picks are going to be "risky" or "coin flips".  Besides players like Lawrence and Andrew Luck, there's always at least a 50/50 chance a player is going to bust out or not meet the expectations of his draft spot.

I think it's obvious that drafting ETN was the correct call.  To try and argue against that, based on how great he's been playing is like fighting the ocean.  You're just wasting your energy, and the waves will never stop pounding you with the fact that you're taking up a fruitless endeavor.

That's hindsight revisionism. On Draft Day he wasn't even the guy Urbz wanted there, he was the fallback position and Meyer REALLY wanted Kadarious Toney.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootbal...-round-one

We lucked out on that pick because Urban Meyer is trash.

Holy smokes...  Well, then it was sorta lucky!!  But still, it was the right pick, in my opinion.  I remember when we drafted him, I was immediately on board with the pick.  I get it that its a RB in the 1st round, but ETN was special in college.  And let's face it, his production is proving his value and that the call was correct.

At the end of the day, this is how all drafts work.  Picks are made, then in 3 years (sometimes earlier, sometimes later) we all look back an evaluate whether the team made the right overall decisions.  The ETN pick was the right decision.  Thank the football gods that piece of [BLEEP] Meyer didn't get his way.

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If we follow your rule, never draft a RB in the first round (unless he's a "special talent," which is vague enough to get you off the hook), who would you have drafted instead of Travis Etienne?

This has been hashed out IN THIS THREAD, Marty

The guys on my radar were Barmore and Teven Jenkins. Yes, yes, I know they ended up going several picks later - but they were projected in that late first round range and fit the team's needs and positional value better than a RB did. 

Either would have been a welcome addition - but ETN turned out to be worth the gamble and a better pick than both of those guys. 

I'm glad we won the coin flip on the back.  He's a fantastic player and appears to be a great fit/piece of the puzzle in the culture build Baalke and Pederson have pulled off. 

For the life of me, I don't understand why it rubs people so badly that teams just  don't gamble on first round backs very often anymore and I agree with that practice.

Most teams will still take a back in the first if they get lucky and a elite back falls to them.  Just this year 2 teams did it in the top 12 picks.  That many backs don't get drafted in the first because there aren't many elite RB prospects that come thrugh.

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Imagine still arguing over a great player we selected that's recently set a few records that had stood still for years in our franchise's history. Holy [BLEEP].

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

And 8 games into the season, if you did a draft re-do, I bet the Falcons take Jalen Carter over Bijan 10/10 and the Lions pass on Gibbs.

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Imagine still arguing over a great player we selected that's recently set a few records that had stood still for years in our franchise's history. Holy [BLEEP].

but, but,but...thats what we do..!!!   lol

---

A new broom always sweeps clean.

And 8 games into the season, if you did a draft re-do, I bet the Falcons take Jalen Carter over Bijan 10/10 and the Lions pass on Gibbs.

I still doubt that. Atlanta is a run heavy, run first team that covets powerful and dynamic runners. They only way they do a redo is if they can trade up for CJ Stroud. As that's the only other value pick they would need as a team to help them out based on Ridder's overall play this year.

Lions are winning football games. I don't think they do anything different. Even in a redo. They took two, safe, well rounded players in Gibbs and that LB out of Iowa. They also landed Branch who had a 1st RD grade on him.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I won’t see eye to eye on this as I’ve acknowledged before but that’s ok. Different [draft] strokes for different folks.

What matters in the end, whether it was dumb luck or calculated, we got a game breaking offensive player in the late first; and I will die on the hill of late first round basically being 2nd round territory in all but name only. Packers, Pats, etc have been notorious for trading out of late first round, netting some extra draft capital and getting the player in the early 2nd.

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