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I'm Hesitant About Bridgewater And Manziel...
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Quote:Both of these guys are ridiculous athletes who routinely make the players around them better and the players against them look stupid. But this is my concern: I'm surprised so many people consider Cam Newton to be a bust. I certainly wouldn't put him on any list with Gabbert. We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today! Quote:I'm surprised so many people consider Cam Newton to be a bust. I certainly wouldn't put him on any list with Gabbert. I'd consider him overdrafted. He puts up good stats but he won't win you many games. That could change this year but I doubt it. The Panthers haven't even gone .500 with him as a starter so far.
Correlation does not prove causation.
Bob, Jack, Joe, Jim, Sam, and Dave all went to McDonalds every morning for breakfast. And they ALL happen to fail the math test on Monday. Are we to assume they failed the math test because they went to McDonalds? Or is it more likely that Bob and Jack stayed up all night Playing Grand Theft Auto V, Joe was always bad at math, Sam didn't study, and Dave copied off of Sam?
I was wrong about Trent Baalke.
Quote:Wrong.Very bad argument. Quote:I think Bridgewater at 3 is better value than Mack at 3, yes. <div> LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. Clown. </div> Quote:I'd consider him overdrafted. He puts up good stats but he won't win you many games. That could change this year but I doubt it. The Panthers haven't even gone .500 with him as a starter so far.Who else could the panthers have drafted that year that could make a difference right away? J.J Watt is the best and will probably be the best overall player in the 2011 draft. But knowing that the Panthers would still drafted Cam over J.J if they could do it over again. Cam is far from a finished product, and I don't know if he will ever reach his supposed full potential. We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today!
Quote:Correlation does not prove causation. No, I'd guess that if they all failed the teacher gave them the incorrect test by mistake
It's a skewed argument at a skewed position. For one, there's only room for one QB on the field at a time (aside from specialty packages), and if a team has a capable player at the position, which most do, they're not as likely to take a rookie in the first round of the draft. This means that fewer QBs are drafted in the first round. When you narrow it down even further by focusing on underclassmen only, you're looking at, on average, two guys a year, maybe three, at the position that has the highest expectations and--partly because of that--the highest bust rate in the draft.
Does staying in school for their senior year help QBs? Sure, possibly. They get one more year of experience leading a team at the college level. If a junior QB comes out and struggles to lead his team, one could make an argument that the extra year in college might have helped. But if a QB's physical tools are at a top-drawer level, they're respected by teammates and have a history of success, it doesn't make sense to avoid drafting that player. He'll probably bust; most first-round QBs do, but if the only red flag is that the guy's a junior, that GM might want to find a new line of work. Let's assume the Colts had drafted Trent Richardson first overall instead of Luck. Luck, by the way, did have a year of eligibility left. Richardson has a 3.5 ypc average, and Luck is arguably the best young QB in the game. How would you like to explain your logic to Jim Irsay in taking Richardson over Luck because Luck had eligibility left?
Quote:Wrong.So, if you go back 10 years, you find 300 guys who were busts coming out their senior years. Quote:It's a skewed argument at a skewed position. For one, there's only room for one QB on the field at a time (aside from specialty packages), and if a team has a capable player at the position, which most do, they're not as likely to take a rookie in the first round of the draft. This means that fewer QBs are drafted in the first round. When you narrow it down even further by focusing on underclassmen only, you're looking at, on average, two guys a year, maybe three, at the position that has the highest expectations and--partly because of that--the highest bust rate in the draft. Luck had a year of eligibility, but he had been at Stanford for 4 years. He was NOT a junior. Bridgewater and Manziel would both be actual juniors. Luck redshirted. It's confusing I know. But the argument I'm trying to make is that younger guys do not have a good track record. Gabbert and Newton are in that group. Leaf is in that group. Luck is not in that group.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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Quote:Luck had a year of eligibility, but he had been at Stanford for 4 years. He was NOT a junior. Bridgewater and Manziel would both be actual juniors. Luck redshirted. It's confusing I know. But the argument I'm trying to make is that younger guys do not have a good track record. Gabbert and Newton are in that group. Leaf is in that group. Luck is not in that group. Again. Logical Fallacy. Correlation does not equal causation. Is it more likely that they failed because they decided not to stay an extra year and came out as Junior's? Or is it more likely that they failed because they didn't have the talent? Occam's razor. The simplest answer is often the correct one.
I was wrong about Trent Baalke.
Quote:Very bad argument. Thanks for the feedback! You could say the argument is incomplete. Time to start four lists. The first two lists prove my argument; the second two refute the argument. QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are not good:
QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are good:
QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are good:
QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are not good:
Guys who I didn't know where to put
Now, these are small sample sizes. But I dare say that even at the smaller sample size, the difference between 38% and 53% is significant.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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Quote:Thanks for the feedback! 1. False equivalence. LEARN IT. EMBRACE YOUR ERRORS. 2. Newton is bad but Tannehill is good? Quote:Thanks for the feedback! Cam Newton and Alex Smith is bad? But you dont know where to put Locker and Bradford LOL
<B><FONT color=cyan>Jags this is your year</FONT></B>
09-26-2013, 06:05 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-26-2013, 06:05 PM by The Eleventh Doctor.)
Quote:Thanks for the feedback!Why is Leaf on that list? That's more than 10 years ago.
I was wrong about Trent Baalke.
Quote:Cam Newton and Alex Smith is bad? But you dont know where to put Locker and Bradford LOL Alex Smith is bad....or at least mediocre/ average/ typical game manager crap. You don't win SB's with Alex Smith. Harbaugh knows this, hence Kaepernick, and Andy Reid will find out.... We show less advertisements to registered users. Accounts are free; join today!
Quote:Pancakes or waffles?make it belgian waffles and im in! |
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