So is there an over reaction to the shift to the passing game, which overly devalued running backs?  After the game changers this weekend of Jonas Gray and Leveon Bell, I think it warrants discussion.  I bet the position has been over sold and we see a rebound of value in the coming years.  Just a thought.  Discuss!

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Good question,  Jags32250.

 

The reason I have significant doubt that the current value system will change is eventual productive RB's like Jonas Gray,  that all 32 teams could have had,  are often available.   The Saints for example have a history of finding UDRFA type of RB's that make major contributions to winning teams.   

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So is there an over reaction to the shift to the passing game, which overly devalued running backs? After the game changers this weekend of Jonas Gray and Leveon Bell, I think it warrants discussion. I bet the position has been over sold and we see a rebound of value in the coming years. Just a thought. Discuss!

Jonas gray kinda disproves that idea.

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Coughlin when asked if winning will be a focus: "What the hell else is there? This is nice and dandy, but winning is what all this is about."

Thanks for the comment D6.  I would counter with the Saints style of offense, where the RB is categorically devalued based on the system.  In an offense like the Steelers, and suprisingly, even NE who has the most variable offense i've ever seen, the RB plays a significant role. 

 

I guess my prediction, which admittedly is mostly based on a gut feeling, is that we'll see RBs drafted higher in the next 5 years.  It's really just an off the cuff feeling i was having, we'll see.  I'm often wrong, so there's that...

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Moving forward achilles.  That's what i'm saying.

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I doubt you see a rebound in value as far as RBs is concerned. There's not nearly as many rules protecting RBs as there is for QB's and WRs hence they get injured more often. In this day and age in the NFL teams aren't willing to throw early draft picks and big money on a player who's got the highest chance of suffering a season ending injury.

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Jaguars Fundamentalist

Thanks for the comment D6. I would counter with the Saints style of offense, where the RB is categorically devalued based on the system. In an offense like the Steelers, and suprisingly, even NE who has the most variable offense i've ever seen, the RB plays a significant role.


I guess my prediction, which admittedly is mostly based on a gut feeling, is that we'll see RBs drafted higher in the next 5 years. It's really just an off the cuff thought i was having, we'll see. I'm often wrong, so there's that...

The running back is just used a lot less. Teams like the saints have been leaning on the pass more for longer than some teams.


Mark Ingram is a good and capable running back and it's important to have talent at the position on your team. But not as much as it used to be.


Sometimes you need the running game to takeover to win. Its not as often as it used to be. But when guys like Jonas gray can do it...Alfred blue...denard....crowell....bell....its pretty much plug and play. There is an over abundance of capable guys out there and that's all you need. You don't need AP or lynch. You just need decent.

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Coughlin when asked if winning will be a focus: "What the hell else is there? This is nice and dandy, but winning is what all this is about."

I doubt you see a rebound in value as far as RBs is concerned. There's not nearly as many rules protecting RBs as there is for QB's and WRs hence they get injured more often. In this day and age in the NFL teams aren't willing to throw early draft picks and big money on a player who's got the highest chance of suffering a season ending injury.

I get that, and i fully agree.  It's just interesting seeing some game changing RB performances of late, in addition to the ones i've mentioned, that made a difference between W and L.  Steelers would not have won tonight without Bell.  I really can't argue one way or the other, I just wanted to bring up a topic that I've noticed being of signifigance the past few weeks.

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Look at how passing attempts per game have gone up.


More teams shifting to rb by committee.


There are just a lot of reasons that rb is becoming less valuable.

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Coughlin when asked if winning will be a focus: "What the hell else is there? This is nice and dandy, but winning is what all this is about."

The running back is just used a lot less. Teams like the saints have been leaning on the pass more for longer than some teams.


Mark Ingram is a good and capable running back and it's important to have talent at the position on your team. But not as much as it used to be.


Sometimes you need the running game to takeover to win. Its not as often as it used to be. But when guys like Jonas gray can do it...Alfred blue...denard....crowell....bell....its pretty much plug and play. There is an over abundance of capable guys out there and that's all you need. You don't need AP or lynch. You just need decent.

Trust me, i agree with you fully.  But those names you mentioned would not have been drafted so low, let's say in the 90s.  I'm just thinking, maybe the position has been oversold a bit, and it's value may rebound.  Or i'm paying too much attention to my retirement account

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Ebb and Flow.

 

Or not.

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I'm not predicting or saying any thing other than brining up a thought that i felt would be good for discussion.  RBs seem to be winning games lately, which makes for fun discussion.  If i'm a GM, i still wouldnt touch one until the 4th.

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I think like Achilles expressed,  the supply of more than capable RB's is greater than the demand.   If NFL expansion was based on supply and demand for RB's,   it would likely have occurred already.    On the other hand,   the demand for QB's that can truly make a difference for teams,   is clearly greater than the supply.   

 

Finding difference makers at QB,  LT,  Pass Rushers off the edge,  and high caliber CB's likely will be much higher priorities for teams than the RB position.   It would take a very special RB talent for a RB to go in the top 10 of an NFL Draft anytime soon.    Even the top 20 doesn't seem likely in the vast majority of cases.    

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Bell was 48th overall and held to ~80 yards by the '14 Jags IIRC. 

 

Gray was an UDFA.  

 

I don't think either of these guys are proving anything about RB value.  If I were an NFL GM I wouldn't draft a RB before the 4th round unless I was drafting for a contender with a deep roster or had just acquired multiple early round picks in a trade. 

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D6, once again, totally agree.  Maybe what i'm wondering is not a significant shift, but a slight rebound in value, kinda like when the stock market gets over sold.  I don't think we'll ever see the value of a RB like it used to be, but instead of the top talent going in lump at say mid 2 to mid 4, maybe top 2 to top 4?  I guess that's what i'm wondering mostly, will we see an uptick in value?  I should've done a better job with the initial post, but it's kind of a spur of the moment type thought.

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Bell was 48th overall and held to ~80 yards by the '14 Jags IIRC. 

 

Gray was an UDFA.  

 

I don't think either of these guys are proving anything about RB value.  If I were an NFL GM I wouldn't draft a RB before the 4th round unless I was drafting for a contender with a deep roster or had just acquired multiple early round picks in a trade. 

I agree, just guessing we'll see a slight rebound in value.

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I agree, just guessing we'll see a slight rebound in value.

Certainly could happen. ^  I'd imagine that a GM or two drafting for teams near the bottom of the league in rushing will continue to draft RBs early, but I think the downward  trend we've been witnessing will continue or sustain over the long term.

 

Top ten RBs will be extremely rare/virtually extinct as the years of "basketball on grass" press on. 

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D6, once again, totally agree. Maybe what i'm wondering is not a significant shift, but a slight rebound in value, kinda like when the stock market gets over sold. I don't think we'll ever see the value of a RB like it used to be, but instead of the top talent going in lump at say mid 2 to mid 4, maybe top 2 to top 4? I guess that's what i'm wondering mostly, will we see an uptick in value? I should've done a better job with the initial post, but it's kind of a spur of the moment type thought.

Maybe if at some point in time soon there becomes a lack of viable running backs, you might see them drafted a little higher just based on supply and demand.


But if guys keep coming out of late rounds or udfa and performing like they have been, teams are going to stick with that game plan.


That's how I see it anyway.

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Coughlin when asked if winning will be a focus: "What the hell else is there? This is nice and dandy, but winning is what all this is about."

The RB position is so valuable the one year the Jags had the rushing champion they still picked 5th in the following draft.

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Jaguars Fundamentalist

I don't think so. In fact it seems more and more teams are finding productive RBs in the later rounds and even in UDFA. If you ask 10 teams would they rather have Richard Sherman or Marshawn Lynch in their primes 10 out of 10 teams would choose the position of more value. Its hard to find a shutdown CB. The Jags have had none in their history. A good RB is a different story. The Jags have already had a few of those.

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"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."