What's up guys. Sorry I've delayed writing this. It was a great game, really impressed by Stanford's rushing attack and just overall physicality. As a disclaimer I am a bit of a Teddy fan, but I do my best to present my findings in an unbiased manner (if you're interested in reading some other stuff I've written, I have links in my signature). The link for the game is here, now let's go.

 

Oregon Background: Oregon was coming into this game with National Championship aspirations, and left with a hope of a good bowl matchup. Their offense looks like a spread, as they have a whole bunch of smallish, fast players, but actually operates as more of a power-running attack. They're used to hanging 50 points on ranked teams with no sweat. Their defense, however, is another matter. They hadn't been very challenged leading into this game, and I think the Ducks' defense was a little overconfident as a result. They're used to betting on their offense to win games, but when their offense can't get out on the field, well...

 

Stanford Background: I actually watched Stanford for a breakdown I was doing of Brett Hundley a few weeks ago, and (since I don't get a chance to watch a lot of West Coast football) I didn't know much about them, and I attributed Hundley's lack of performance in that game to his own inconsistencies as opposed to the Cardinal's strength. I may have been mistaken. They played fast and hard against the Ducks. With one borderline first-round defensive end and a whole host of talented depth, they're a strong unit. It was a good test for Mariota.

 

Time for a little more in-depth breakdown of the Ducks' offense. They ran only 53 plays in this game, which is a far cry from their usual 80 minimum per game. Out of 53 plays the offense ran (by my count), Mariota made adjustments at the line of scrimmage only twice. This means that he was adjusting protections and/or receiver's routes only 3% of the time, or once out of roughly every 33 plays. This is NOT good. When you watch QBs in the NFL or college, one of the most telling signs of their maturity is how well and often they make adjustments based off of pre-snap reads. Now, this may be a product of his offensive system, so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt here - I have to, really, because otherwise this statistic is terrible. One more thing before we really dive in to the meat of it. Mariota was injured in this game. I don't know if he was injured going in, but he definitely sustained one around the start of the fourth quarter. This may skew his performance a little bit, especially since (to my eyes) he was really getting in rhythm before he was hurt.

 

Here are the numbers:

 

D = Drop, * = Miscommunication, @ = Interception, $ = Touchdown, != INT off Drop, S=Screen

Yardage Rank               Left               Center               Right               Total with Raw Percent (%Adjusted for drops and miscommunications in parentheses)

1-5                           4-5, *, SSS         1-1, S                2-5, D              8-12,66%(80%)

5-10                              3-4                 0-3, D                2-3                  5-10, 50% (55%)

10-20                           1-2, *              2-2, $                 3-4                  6-8, 75% (85%) $

20+                              2-2                  1-2, $D              0-0                  3-4, 75% (100%) $

 

Directional Totals       10-13                4-8, $$             7-12

                                   77%(90%)        50%(66%)        58%(63%)

 

Overall on the day, Mariota was 21-33, for two touchdowns, 250 yards, and no interceptions, which is a 63% rate (75% adjusted). He also scrambled twice and was sacked once. (He actually didn't have any designed runs, which I think may lend some credence to the story that he was injured going into the game.)

 

That's probably his worst stat-line all season, but it's not a bad one by any stretch of the imagination. On to the positive of his play.

 

He can throw the deep out, which is pretty much the quintessential Pro QB throw. He generally makes good decisions - throwing the ball away when he must, tucking and running when he can. His athleticism is off the charts. While not really on display in this game, it's possibly the most enticing thing about Mariota - he can run something close to a 4.4 or 4.5 and has acceleration to match, which makes him incredibly dangerous. Just by looking at the numbers, it's hard to deny that he has accuracy. I don't put all my stock into statistics, but in this case they tell a big story. He threw well in the short range, which is required for a QB, but what really stood out to me was his throws of over ten yards: 9-12 for two touchdowns when he's throwing past the sticks. In particular, his deep middle ball was impressive. He has the arm strength and the accuracy to drive the length of the field.

 

However, he doesn't always match his physical skill with that of the mental nature. There were times where he underthrew deep receivers, which actually really surprised me because his deep ball is the best part of his throwing game. He also overthrew short routes. These two in conjunction make me really nervous. If a QB floats a curl route or beams a seam throw, he's very, very likely to be intercepted because of the timing necessary for these routes (which is what most routes in the NFL are). Which brings me to my next point. Mariota needs to work on his touch passing. He has a tendency to rely to heavily on his abundant arm strength, which can lead to him missing targets. He needs to learn to drop the ball in over the top, not just throw it in like a rocket. The biggest problem of this game for him, though, was fumbles. I think he fumbled twice in this game alone, and he has dropped a couple more in recent weeks. The first thing a QB needs to do to lead a team is hold on to the football and he wasn't doing that adequately. And finally, it looked as though he had some trouble playing under pressure. Marcus Mariota has very little experience playing from behind, much less a three-or-four score deficit. Watching him in this game, he looked very uncomfortable and as though he was pressing to make a play, which -as we all know- is the best way to make a bad play. This really compounded all of his other issues and made any comeback attempt much harder for him and his team.

 

Marcus Mariota is an unrefined yet very talented quarterback. As I've mentioned before, he has every tool at his disposal to be a dominant QB in the NFL for years to come. The only (and, frankly, large) problem is that he doesn't seem to have the intangibles to match. For every throw he delivers with pinpoint accuracy and decisive arm strength, he misses one for lack of anticipation and consistency. I personally think he should stay in school another year. He will make his own decision, however, and since I write these for the upcoming draft, I'll have to assume that he declares. I would support the Jaguars using no more than a low first or high second round pick on Marcus Mariota. For teams drafting at the very top of the list, the chief priorities are polish and Day 1 ability. Marcus Mariota has neither. If he goes to a team with an established QB and prepares to take over the reigns, however... The rest of the NFL better watch out.

 

(Thanks for reading. Leave your critiques below. If you want me to do a QB breakdown, comment the name and what game of his you want me to watch.)

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"Let us not become conceited, provoking and envying each other." Galatians 5:26

2015 NFL Draft - Analyzing Targets www.jungle.jaguars.com/index.php?/topic/7892-2015-nfl-draft-analyzing-targets/

Yeah, this is pretty much my new-found opinion of Mariota.  Extremely raw, but off-the-charts potential.

 

But I no longer want him as a back-up option in a situation where Teddy is off the board.  If we somehow did not garner that number one overall slot, I would pass on him with the second, or third pick for a guy like Barr or Clowney.

 

Actually, if we don't land Teddy I'd hope we can find a trade down partner -- which is obviously easier said than done -- but I think there may be a team out there that wold be willing to trade up for Clowney, Barr, or Matthews.  We'll see how it plays out though.

 

I'm pretty much all in for Bridgewater and would be pretty disappointed if we don't land him.  But I know Caldwell has a plan B and plan C up his sleeve, so I'm not worried.  But I'd be stunned if he drafts Mariota or Hundley.  Stunned.

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Nice report!


I'm inclined to agree with you on Mariota. And if we miss on Teddy, put me in the trade down for best available pass rusher and take a QB in the 2nd camp.

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If not bridgewater, get derek carr

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Nice work, this is going to make me rewatch the game because I thought his ball placement was a little shaky. I remember him missing too many gimmes. 

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Nice work, this is going to make me rewatch the game because I thought his ball placement was a little shaky. I remember him missing too many gimmes. 

 

Thanks. I was surprised as I reviewed the numbers as well. I had the impression of his being much more inaccurate, but hey that's what the stats are for.

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"Let us not become conceited, provoking and envying each other." Galatians 5:26

2015 NFL Draft - Analyzing Targets www.jungle.jaguars.com/index.php?/topic/7892-2015-nfl-draft-analyzing-targets/

Yeah, this is pretty much my new-found opinion of Mariota. Extremely raw, but off-the-charts potential.


But I no longer want him as a back-up option in a situation where Teddy is off the board. If we somehow did not garner that number one overall slot, I would pass on him with the second, or third pick for a guy like Barr or Clowney.


Actually, if we don't land Teddy I'd hope we can find a trade down partner -- which is obviously easier said than done -- but I think there may be a team out there that wold be willing to trade up for Clowney, Barr, or Matthews. We'll see how it plays out though.


I'm pretty much all in for Bridgewater and would be pretty disappointed if we don't land him. But I know Caldwell has a plan B and plan C up his sleeve, so I'm not worried. But I'd be stunned if he drafts Mariota or Hundley. Stunned.

There will be teams dying to get Clowney. Id rather we just draft him and pick up a QB in the second.

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If not bridgewater, get derek carr

 

This would be my backup plan.

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I'm in favor of NOT drafting Marcus Mariota under any circumstances.

 

These mesh guys are all over the place in college football. They get eaten alive in the pro game.

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First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. - Mahatma Gandhi

 

http://s6.postimg.org/vyr2ycdfz/Teddy_Br...cked_4.gif

One thing that you may want to consider is how heavy you weight the pre-snap adjustments. There are a lot of Offenses out there that do not have pre-snap audibles, but just have in-play adjustments. Oregon's run-first attack may or may not have this feature, I'm not really sure, but those up-tempo offenses typically want the adjustments to be made on the fly.

 

Just food for thought.

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I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!

One thing that you may want to consider is how heavy you weight the pre-snap adjustments. There are a lot of Offenses out there that do not have pre-snap audibles, but just have in-play adjustments. Oregon's run-first attack may or may not have this feature, I'm not really sure, but those up-tempo offenses typically want the adjustments to be made on the fly.


Just food for thought.

Yes and this is the toughest thing to see. How many times does the qb make dummy calls? Is the play designed to shift formations at some point (Mularkey did a lot of this)? Is a receiver going in motion, just to identify the coverage or he is changing routes?


So many different things can be going on that make predicting audibles extremely difficult. You're probably better off not including it but noting which player can control the pre-snap.


For the most part though, good job on these.

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If not bridgewater, get derek carr

 

:yucky:  

 

 

I'd rather go through another year like this one and get Winston than that...

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