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Were the Jaguars some branch of the federal government that just got caught in the shutdown and nobody told me?

 

I figured this trade might be a possibility, even before the team took Joeckel.

 

If the initial reports of 3rd day picks are true, initially I didn't think we got enough for him.

 

But after giving it some thought I realized a few things.

 

1)  I have never been as high on Monroe as many have been here.  It's quite possible a superior talent evaluating GM like Newsome-to say nothing of other average GMs-didn't believe Monroe was elite-thus no elite draft compensation for him.

 

What someone will offer doesn't necessarily reflect the perceived value by the one making the offer. The offer often only reflects the minimum that someone is willing to take. People have made fortunes taking advantage of this disparity.


 

2)  We got, at the highest, a 3rd round pick for Stroud.  Stroud was far better at his position than Monroe ever was at his.  Even adjusting for positional importance, a 3rd round pick would be about the highest you could realistically hope to get for Monroe, given that his level of play at his position never approached Stroud's.

 

Not only did Stroud not play a premium position, but he was also older and coming off two injury plagued seasons. Not really making your case for fair compensation.


 

3)  As bad as it seems, Monroe was basically the only asset on the roster with any real trade value.  MJD has too much mileage, and his injury last year and poor performance this year (which may or may not be attributable to him) wouldn't get much in return.    Marcedes Lewis will likely get even less. They wouldn't trade guys like Joeckel or Cyprien when they are the first class in this GM's tenure.


 

Should you really be trading something unless you feel that it will bring you some sort of upgrade or increased value? Say you come across a new leather couch and your goal is to upgrade your living room by adding more furniture. So you trade the nice relatively new couch that you had as soon as someone offers you two lawn chairs. Have you upgraded or increased value in your living room? You probably should have held out for a recliner and a coffee table. That is kind of how this trade is looking.

 

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1)  Agreed on this point.  However, you also have to take market demand for the player into question too.  Assume, for the moment that Caldwell is an average rational actor.  He knows that the Jaguars are completely devoid of talent, and the season is lost.  He knows that to turn this team around he would need more picks, the higher the better.  Do you think Baltimore is the only team he called about Monroe?  Assuming he is a rational actor, he tried to maximize the trade value and that's the best offer he got.  In other words, it's not just Baltimore's perceived value for Monroe that's the issue.  It's the market's value for Monroe.

 

2)  Well if you are convinced that Monroe is NOT an elite, but good to average LT, then even accounting for differences in age, health and position, the trade compensation (assuming a 4th and a 5th for Monroe) makes sense.  Monroe is a player that has been benched and inconsistent.  He never came close to making three pro bowls like Stroud.  He never came close to being part of a dominant unit like Stroud was.  Teams typically don't make it a habit of trading high picks for players seen to be average.   Even though Freeman has produced two seasons with over 20 passing TDs in the last three years, so far nobody has traded for him-even teams like ours with desperate needs at QB.

 

3)  If you can prove there were other teams willing to offer more for Monroe, you'd have a point here.  In other words, if you could prove you could get a recliner and coffee table for the couch and he turned it down, then there's a point.  But let's twist the hypothetical slightly.  Suppose the guy you are trading the couch to saw how the couch worked for you.  Suppose he knows you burned cigarette holes in a couple of cushions, a dog or cat scratched it up, and it's actually an odd color that doesn't go with anything else anyone else has.  I submit to you Monroe on film represents that couch with flaws.  That will suppress the market for him and thus the compensation. 

 

While we are on the subject, I remember one of your points in the various debates you and I have had over Gene Smith's draft picks is that his draft classes were not in the primes of their careers and therefore should not be judged harshly until they reached that point.  It's safe to assume 5 years from their drafting, the 2009 draft is in their primes. 

 

None of the 2009 draft class remains on the roster.

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