Both of these guys are ridiculous athletes who routinely make the players around them better and the players against them look stupid.  But this is my concern:

Who was the last underclassman QB that wasn't a bust?  Matt Stafford.  And his career has been spotty.  When you make a list of guys who are currently in the league, have won Super Bowls, or are as good or better than Matt Stafford, your list only has guys who stayed for their senior year on it.  Other guys who recently came out as juniors, guys like Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Mark Sanchez... obviously they haven't done as well.

Now, it is obvious that more and more guys, if they dominate college football as juniors, are not going to stay for their senior years.  If you hold out for a senior, you may wait forever.

But the odds are certainly against both Bridgewater and Manziel having successful NFL careers if they come out in the 2014 draft.

 

I'm surprised so many people consider Cam Newton to be a bust. I certainly wouldn't put him on any list with Gabbert.

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I'm surprised so many people consider Cam Newton to be a bust. I certainly wouldn't put him on any list with Gabbert.

 

 

I'd consider him overdrafted. He puts up good stats but he won't win you many games. That could change this year but I doubt it. The Panthers haven't even gone .500 with him as a starter so far.

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Correlation does not prove causation.  

 

Bob, Jack, Joe, Jim, Sam, and Dave all went to McDonalds every morning for breakfast.  And they ALL happen to fail the math test on Monday.  Are we to assume they failed the math test because they went to McDonalds?  Or is it more likely that Bob and Jack stayed up all night Playing Grand Theft Auto V, Joe was always bad at math, Sam didn't study, and Dave copied off of Sam?

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

Wrong.

 

 Both correct.  2004 and 2005 respectively.  So if you go back 10 years, you find 3 guys who were good despite coming out as juniors...  Stafford, Rodgers, and Roethlisberger.  Considering at least one junior QB has come out each year since then, that is not a good record.  And Roethlisberger was 22 years old they day they drafted him, so I'd probably debate if he counts or not.

Very bad argument.

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I think Bridgewater at 3 is better value than Mack at 3, yes.

 

<div> 
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. Clown.
</div>
 
 
 

I'd consider him overdrafted. He puts up good stats but he won't win you many games. That could change this year but I doubt it. The Panthers haven't even gone .500 with him as a starter so far.

Who else could the panthers have drafted that year that could make a difference right away? J.J Watt is the best and will probably be the best overall player in the 2011 draft. But knowing that the Panthers would still drafted Cam over J.J if they could do it over again. Cam is far from a finished product, and I don't know if he will ever reach his supposed full potential.

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Correlation does not prove causation.  

 

Bob, Jack, Joe, Jim, Sam, and Dave all went to McDonalds every morning for breakfast.  And they ALL happen to fail the math test on Monday.  Are we to assume they failed the math test because they went to McDonalds?  Or is it more likely that Bob and Jack stayed up all night Playing Grand Theft Auto V, Joe was always bad at math, Sam didn't study, and Dave copied off of Sam?

 

No, I'd guess that if they all failed the teacher gave them the incorrect test by mistake  

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It's a skewed argument at a skewed position. For one, there's only room for one QB on the field at a time (aside from specialty packages), and if a team has a capable player at the position, which most do, they're not as likely to take a rookie in the first round of the draft. This means that fewer QBs are drafted in the first round. When you narrow it down even further by focusing on underclassmen only, you're looking at, on average, two guys a year, maybe three, at the position that has the highest expectations and--partly because of that--the highest bust rate in the draft.

 

Does staying in school for their senior year help QBs? Sure, possibly. They get one more year of experience leading a team at the college level. If a junior QB comes out and struggles to lead his team, one could make an argument that the extra year in college might have helped. But if a QB's physical tools are at a top-drawer level, they're respected by teammates and have a history of success, it doesn't make sense to avoid drafting that player. He'll probably bust; most first-round QBs do, but if the only red flag is that the guy's a junior, that GM might want to find a new line of work. Let's assume the Colts had drafted Trent Richardson first overall instead of Luck. Luck, by the way, did have a year of eligibility left. Richardson has a 3.5 ypc average, and Luck is arguably the best young QB in the game. How would you like to explain your logic to Jim Irsay in taking Richardson over Luck because Luck had eligibility left?

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Wrong.

 

.  So if you go back 10 years, you find 3 guys who were good despite coming out as juniors...  

So, if you go back 10 years, you find 300 guys who were busts coming out their senior years.

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It's a skewed argument at a skewed position. For one, there's only room for one QB on the field at a time (aside from specialty packages), and if a team has a capable player at the position, which most do, they're not as likely to take a rookie in the first round of the draft. This means that fewer QBs are drafted in the first round. When you narrow it down even further by focusing on underclassmen only, you're looking at, on average, two guys a year, maybe three, at the position that has the highest expectations and--partly because of that--the highest bust rate in the draft.

 

Does staying in school for their senior year help QBs? Sure, possibly. They get one more year of experience leading a team at the college level. If a junior QB comes out and struggles to lead his team, one could make an argument that the extra year in college might have helped. But if a QB's physical tools are at a top-drawer level, they're respected by teammates and have a history of success, it doesn't make sense to avoid drafting that player. He'll probably bust; most first-round QBs do, but if the only red flag is that the guy's a junior, that GM might want to find a new line of work. Let's assume the Colts had drafted Trent Richardson first overall instead of Luck. Luck, by the way, did have a year of eligibility left. Richardson has a 3.5 ypc average, and Luck is arguably the best young QB in the game. How would you like to explain your logic to Jim Irsay in taking Richardson over Luck because Luck had eligibility left?

 

Luck had a year of eligibility, but he had been at Stanford for 4 years.  He was NOT a junior.  Bridgewater and Manziel would both be actual juniors.  Luck redshirted.  It's confusing I know.  But the argument I'm trying to make is that younger guys do not have a good track record.  Gabbert and Newton are in that group.  Leaf is in that group.  Luck is not in that group.

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My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

Luck had a year of eligibility, but he had been at Stanford for 4 years.  He was NOT a junior.  Bridgewater and Manziel would both be actual juniors.  Luck redshirted.  It's confusing I know.  But the argument I'm trying to make is that younger guys do not have a good track record.  Gabbert and Newton are in that group.  Leaf is in that group.  Luck is not in that group.

 

Again.  Logical Fallacy.  Correlation does not equal causation.

 

Is it more likely that they failed because they decided not to stay an extra year and came out as Junior's?

 

Or is it more likely that they failed because they didn't have the talent?  


Occam's razor.  The simplest answer is often the correct one.

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

Very bad argument.

 

Thanks for the feedback!

You could say the argument is incomplete.

 

Time to start four lists.  The first two lists prove my argument; the second two refute the argument.  

 

QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are not good:

• Gabbert
  
• Newton
  
• Leaf
  
• Sanchez
  
• Alex Smith
  

TOTAL 5

 

QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are good:

• Flacco
  
• Eli Manning 
  
• Luck
  
• Griffen III
  
• Tannehill
  
• Palmer
  
• Brees
  
• Ryan
  
• Cutler
  

TOTAL 9

 

QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are good:

• Stafford
  
• Rodgers
  
• Roethlisberger
  

TOTAL 3

 

QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are not good:

• Freeman
  
• Weeden
  
• Tebow
  
• Young
  
• Leinart
  
• Losman
  
• Leftwich
  
• Boller
  

TOTAL 8

 

Guys who I didn't know where to put

• Bradford
  
• Locker
  

To conclude, if you look at any QB in the 1st round in the last ten years, you have only 48% chance of that guy being good (12/25).  If you look only at the guys who were 4 years removed from high school, you have a 53% chance they're good (9/17).  If you look only at the guys who were younger, they only have a 38% chance of being good (3/8).

 

Now, these are small sample sizes.  But I dare say that even at the smaller sample size, the difference between 38% and 53% is significant.

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My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

Cool.

 

Just let this thread die mike.

---

Pancakes or waffles? 

 

The debate rages on.

---

Thanks for the feedback!

You could say the argument is incomplete.

 

Time to start four lists.  The first two lists prove my argument; the second two refute the argument.  

 

QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are not good:

• Gabbert
  
• Newton
  
• Leaf
  
• Sanchez
  
• Alex Smith
  

TOTAL 5

 

QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are good:

• Flacco
  
• Eli Manning 
  
• Luck
  
• Griffen III
  
• Tannehill
  
• Palmer
  
• Brees
  
• Ryan
  
• Cutler
  

TOTAL 9

 

QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are good:

• Stafford
  
• Rodgers
  
• Roethlisberger
  

TOTAL 3

 

QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are not good:

• Freeman
  
• Weeden
  
• Tebow
  
• Young
  
• Leinart
  
• Losman
  
• Leftwich
  
• Boller
  

TOTAL 8

 

Guys who I didn't know where to put

• Bradford
  
• Locker
  

To conclude, if you look at any QB in the 1st round in the last ten years, you have only 48% chance of that guy being good (12/25).  If you look only at the guys who were 4 years removed from high school, you have a 53% chance they're good (9/17).  If you look only at the guys who were younger, they only have a 38% chance of being good (3/8).

 

Now, these are small sample sizes.  But I dare say that even at the smaller sample size, the difference between 38% and 53% is significant.

 

1. False equivalence. LEARN IT. EMBRACE YOUR ERRORS.

 

2. Newton is bad but Tannehill is good?

---

Thanks for the feedback!

You could say the argument is incomplete.

 

Time to start four lists.  The first two lists prove my argument; the second two refute the argument.  

 

QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are not good:

• Gabbert
  
• Newton
  
• Leaf
  
• Sanchez
  
• Alex Smith
  

TOTAL 5

 

QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are good:

• Flacco
  
• Eli Manning 
  
• Luck
  
• Griffen III
  
• Tannehill
  
• Palmer
  
• Brees
  
• Ryan
  
• Cutler
  

TOTAL 9

 

QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are good:

• Stafford
  
• Rodgers
  
• Roethlisberger
  

TOTAL 3

 

QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are not good:

• Freeman
  
• Weeden
  
• Tebow
  
• Young
  
• Leinart
  
• Losman
  
• Leftwich
  
• Boller
  

TOTAL 8

 

Guys who I didn't know where to put

• Bradford
  
• Locker
  

To conclude, if you look at any QB in the 1st round in the last ten years, you have only 48% chance of that guy being good (12/25).  If you look only at the guys who were 4 years removed from high school, you have a 53% chance they're good (9/17).  If you look only at the guys who were younger, they only have a 38% chance of being good (3/8).

 

Now, these are small sample sizes.  But I dare say that even at the smaller sample size, the difference between 38% and 53% is significant.

 

Cam Newton and Alex Smith is bad? But you dont know where to put Locker and Bradford LOL

---

<B><FONT color=cyan>Jags this is your year</FONT></B>

Thanks for the feedback!

You could say the argument is incomplete.

 

Time to start four lists.  The first two lists prove my argument; the second two refute the argument.  

 

QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are not good:

• Gabbert
  
• Newton
  
• Leaf
  
• Sanchez
  
• Alex Smith
  

TOTAL 5

 

QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are good:

• Flacco
  
• Eli Manning 
  
• Luck
  
• Griffen III
  
• Tannehill
  
• Palmer
  
• Brees
  
• Ryan
  
• Cutler
  

TOTAL 9

 

QB drafted 1st round with less than 4 years out of high school who are good:

• Stafford
  
• Rodgers
  
• Roethlisberger
  

TOTAL 3

 

QB drafted 1st round with 4 or more years out of high school, who are not good:

• Freeman
  
• Weeden
  
• Tebow
  
• Young
  
• Leinart
  
• Losman
  
• Leftwich
  
• Boller
  

TOTAL 8

 

Guys who I didn't know where to put

• Bradford
  
• Locker
  

To conclude, if you look at any QB in the 1st round in the last ten years, you have only 48% chance of that guy being good (12/25).  If you look only at the guys who were 4 years removed from high school, you have a 53% chance they're good (9/17).  If you look only at the guys who were younger, they only have a 38% chance of being good (3/8).

 

Now, these are small sample sizes.  But I dare say that even at the smaller sample size, the difference between 38% and 53% is significant.

Why is Leaf on that list?  That's more than 10 years ago.  

---

I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

Cam Newton and Alex Smith is bad? But you dont know where to put Locker and Bradford LOL

 

Alex Smith is bad....or at least mediocre/ average/ typical game manager crap. 

 

You don't win SB's with Alex Smith. Harbaugh knows this, hence Kaepernick, and Andy Reid will find out....

---

Pancakes or waffles? 

 

The debate rages on.

make it belgian waffles and im in!

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